羡羡的加密日记

Please listen to my sincere words patiently, coin traders!

Whether you hold BTC tightly, love ETH, or are optimistic about BNB, please pause your busy trading and take a few minutes to feel my advice from the bottom of your heart.

When the halo of the coin circle allows you to achieve financial freedom, remember the following nine "don'ts", they may help you avoid many unnecessary twists and turns.

First, don't let people around you peek into the secrets of your coin trading. In this world, those who understand will naturally understand, no need to say more.

Second, don't easily expose your income. Income charts and asset charts are all triggers for jealousy and trouble, so it's better to keep a low profile.

Third, don't show off your rich life in the circle of friends. Except for close relatives, few people really hope that you live better than him. Excessive show-off will only attract unnecessary jealousy.

Fourth, when you have a huge fortune, you should also keep a proper distance from old friends. Many predecessors in the coin circle have chosen to live a low-key life after gaining financial freedom, and even gradually drifted away from their past friends.

Fifth, gambling and drugs, don't touch these two things! Gambling will ruin your psychology, and drugs will ruin your physiology. Once you are infected, the consequences will be disastrous.

Sixth, don't easily call people stupid B, harmony is the most important, and getting angry will only affect your fortune. When you meet those who consume you, just stay away from them, no need to say more.

Seventh, don't take the initiative to do good, and don't pity others easily. Everyone has his own destiny, and being yourself is the greatest contribution to the world.

Eighth, don't invest in areas you don't understand. Remember, people can never make money beyond their own cognition, and blind investment will only make you lose all your money.

Ninth, resolutely don't touch physical entrepreneurship unless you are passionate about it and don't make money as the only purpose. In the current economic environment, physical entrepreneurship is extremely risky, and if you are not careful, you may be unable to recover.

These are advices, but I sincerely hope you can listen to them. Although the currency circle is good, you must also act with caution. I hope you will be more stable and go further and further on the road of currency speculation.

Which are the best altcoins?
Deflation coins:
BNB, FLOKI, SHIB
Fully circulated coins:
PEPE, BOME, PEOPLE, NOT, WIF

USELESS: The 1-hour chart has retraced to the EMA support level. Given market sentiment, it seems there could be another upward push—go long immediately!

Set stop-loss at 0.103, and aim for the resistance level around 0.135 first. If volume increases and the price breaks through this level with strength, it might even surge up to the 0.22 resistance level!

BTC experienced a brief short-term rebound earlier, but then continued to decline, marking the temporary end of this rebound phase. Yesterday, I had planned to short after the price reached a minor high point, but the market was too weak and dropped directly. However, this aligns with my analysis from yesterday, where I warned that a weak market could lead to a direct drop, so the trade followed the second scenario I outlined.

Looking ahead, after the recent minor pinbar at the lower timeframe, a bottoming signal is likely forming soon. The current candlestick pattern shows signs of a descending wedge, still needing a final downward leg followed by a pinbar. Therefore, there's likely at least one more downward move in the short term. I expect the low to reach around 89,000, which is also my planned entry point for long positions, as it lies within a support zone.

Additionally, the lower timeframe price touched the upper boundary of the previous consolidation range but did not generate a bottoming signal. A bear trap is likely — meaning a sharp downward spike followed by a quick reversal and rebound. Therefore, consider placing a limit order to go long at 89,305. If filled, this could yield around 3,000 points of upside, with a target of 93,000. After the rebound, the downtrend will resume. The short-term strategy is clear: first, take a long position on the rebound, then look for opportunities to short after the price rises.

The recent drop in IP was fake; it has now returned to the consolidation range.

This consolidation phase has lasted long enough; next, keep an eye on a potential gain of over 20%.

Place the stop-loss near 2.0.

Regarding the contract operations: The long position opened yesterday on $brev was closed for a small profit due to concerns about potential large fluctuations caused by Alpha and the spot market.
Today, short positions remain the main focus. The $xpl short position previously set around 0.195 should be held on.
All altcoins are weak today and are likely to retrace along with the major coins. Additionally, $bch will continue to fluctuate sharply—don't rush to buy this coin.

Another wave of BTC short-term trading ideas! Just now, there was another acceleration in the rise, and I haven't received a short order yet. However, the upward momentum is still strong; in the smaller timeframe, there is definitely a need to push for a new high again. It's not worth entering the market right now; it's recommended to wait for a new high to open a short position.

I still plan to enter the market in the range of 94,000 — 95,000, and the order can be set near 94,500. This position is a recent high point, and there is significant selling pressure. If it hits that level, there is a high probability it will pull back. Moreover, the strong resistance line is not so easy to break through directly. Therefore, the upcoming acceleration in the rise is likely just a trap for the bulls. Once it reaches another high point, it will be a good time to enter a short position. This pullback should not be small; just be patient and wait for the opportunity!

The New Year has just begun, and Meme coins have collectively rebounded!
BONK has directly surged over 50%, with a big bullish candle pulling it up. As expected, Meme coins still have potential. However, the positions I hold need to double again to break even.

Another wave of short-term analysis for BTC! Previously, after the price broke through the consolidation range, it accelerated and rose sharply, now it is steadily above 90000. Before the holiday, I opened a short position, originally anticipating a pullback to the lower edge of the range, but the price didn't drop below 87000 and started to rebound, resulting in my short position being stopped out.
Now BTC has completed a valid breakout, and the short-term upward momentum is still strong, estimating that there will be at least one more wave of acceleration. The upper range of 94000—95000 is a strong resistance zone, which has been a small high point for over a month, having been tested several times without breaking through, definitely a strong short-term resistance line. From the 1-hour chart, the price is likely to pull back for a test, which is the support test for the upper edge of the range after the breakout, it is unlikely to break below; there is also a possibility that it will consolidate sideways instead of correcting, and then accelerate upward.
My trading thought process is very clear: wait for the price to pull back to the 94000—95000 range and consider going short, as this position offers the best risk-reward ratio. If the price falls directly, I will update my forecast later, but for now, I will stick to this strategy.

#BTC Reappearance of a small-level upward trend, but unable to break through the key resistance zone. Currently, it is still in a consolidation phase, and we need to pay close attention to breakout signals in the future.

The core support and resistance zones remain at previous levels. It is recommended to patiently wait for a clearer breakout market. From an operational perspective, the low long strategy has relatively controllable risks, but strict control of positions and leverage is necessary, especially crucial at this stage.

Add several observed currencies:
1.Rvv: Wait for it to drop significantly, then there is a high probability of a rebound market.
2.ZBT: See if it can drive the popularity of new coins, just observe for now.
3.AT: Like Rvv, wait for it to drop to a suitable point for a rebound.
4.WhiteWhale on the Sol chain: Follow it as well, also waiting for a rebound opportunity. The bear market is actually a good time to settle down and layout strategies; as long as you keep an eye on the market, you can always seize opportunities that belong to you.

A few days ago, I just analyzed #zec , and at that time it was showing a bullish flag pattern, a definite signal for an upward trend, and the price indeed surged significantly. The previous ascending wedge invalidated after the breakout, so there's no need to keep an eye on it.

Currently, ZEC has already moved out of the upward channel, and the current price is close to the resistance level at the upper edge of the channel, so a short-term pullback is highly likely, after which it will continue to rise. This wave of market movement is considered a secondary increase, and there's still some distance to the previous second high point, so the outlook remains bullish in the near term. Only after breaking through this second high point can ZEC's price possibly reach a new historical high.

BNB and SOL, as long as Bitcoin moves slightly, they will definitely follow up with a pullback, and they often hit new lows, just like previously mentioned. The old rule still applies: no breaking, no standing; it's safer to enter the market only after Bitcoin has completely stabilized.

In recent days, altcoins have performed slightly better than mainstream coins, but the market has no sustainability; frankly speaking, it's just a rebound after a significant drop, so don't take it seriously. On the contract side, looking at BCH, we also need to wait for the overall market to stabilize before there are opportunities to make moves; for now, just patiently wait.

I am currently holding a short position in Bitcoin, with the price hovering around the entry price. I had previously predicted that Bitcoin would form an ascending wedge structure, and after the initial decline, there would be a B wave rebound. The market is now moving according to my expectations, remaining in a rebound state in the smaller time frames. Therefore, I have also planned to build short positions in batches within the 89000—90000 range, intending to add to my position when the price reaches 90000. I have set my stop-loss in the 90500—91000 range. If the high point of the B wave rebound can be accurately predicted, the subsequent C wave decline is likely to accelerate, making this operation quite cost-effective.

Additionally, there will be the largest options expiry at four o'clock, which will certainly increase price volatility but will not change the overall trend. Based on the current rebound strength, it seems that the smaller time frames will need to push for another high point before starting to decline. Everyone must set their stop-loss to prevent sudden news from causing price spikes. Focus on the high point of the ascending wedge; as long as this high point is not breached, continue to watch for the acceleration of the C wave decline. If it is truly breached, decisively stop-loss and exit the short position!

Today is another day of consolidation for mainstream cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both waiting for delivery, and not much action happening.

The market for ZBT is still moving, but there isn't much volume support at the daily level. It may be worth considering a short position when it rises.

I mentioned before that when BEAT was at 4.1, it would rise and then fall the same way. Although I closed my position at 2.6 and missed out on some profits, this kind of speculative coin is really only suitable for capturing a portion of the profit in the middle, so one should not be greedy.

Other altcoins currently have little trading depth and no operational value. The BCH that I previously advised everyone to pay attention to has now reached a buy-in price of 560. You can consider entering with a small position to build a base, and decide on the remaining position after the delivery ends based on the data.

The liquidity of the SOL chain is slowly coming back. This morning, the original artist of PEPE released a new work, and my first reaction was that such IP coins must be bought on the Ethereum mainnet. Who knew that the same type on the SOL chain directly surged to a market value of 3 million, while the one on the Ethereum mainnet was still lingering around 400,000.

I've been watching the SOL chain for half a month now, and my biggest impression is: for coins with a bit of appeal, the market value generally ranges from 1 million to 3 million; when encountering a major player, at most it can surge to 10 million. It's not that it can't rise, but the main issue is the poor capital support, making it difficult for prices to move up even a step; it's still a liquidity problem. The major players are not foolish; if they pull hard, everyone makes money and runs away, wouldn't they be the ones losing? However, compared to November, the current situation is already much better. These past few days, foreigners are celebrating the New Year, and when they return from their holiday, the market might change.

Another point is that high market value coins will definitely undergo a washout. The snowball can surge to a market value of 10 million, relying on a severe washout in the early stage, and then pulling back later. From this perspective, it's not surprising that PUMPV2 can only reach this height — the market is too heavy, and the chips are too scattered. So, if the positions for topping out and bottoming out are not grasped well, being stuck at the mountain top is really too uncomfortable. Coins that rely on mechanisms and narrative hype usually cannot match the sustainability of pure MEME coins, as their follow-through is far weaker.

The dog fund of TST has started to take action, and the small-scale trend has been rebounding. Now, the price is near the resistance line.
As long as this resistance level is broken, there is a high probability of a rapid increase. It is estimated that the dog fund has already absorbed enough chips, and recently, many cryptocurrencies have started to move, especially those with contracts or about to have contracts.
At this time, entering the market at a low position can basically yield a significant profit, with little selling pressure, making it easier for the fund manager to push up the price.

To judge whether the market is warming up, there is an important signal to watch: the new product launches on Binance.
It has been a month since the last new product was launched. The market is extremely cold right now, and many project teams are proactively negotiating with Binance to postpone the listing time. After all, nobody is trading at the moment, and listing tokens now is completely meaningless.
Binance's backend can definitely see the real data, such as the number of active users and market trading volume. Right now, all these metrics are declining, which clearly indicates that the market is cooling down.
Once these metrics start to rise, the signal of a market warming up will arrive, and by then we will see Binance frequently launching new products.

The chip distribution of Ethereum looks much better than that of Bitcoin. Regardless of whether it’s a large-scale or small-scale chip concentration area, the positions are particularly close, basically clustered around 3030.
This is probably the reason why Ethereum is struggling to stay above 3000!

From the current chip situation, the key price level is in the range of 3030—3050. Only by effectively breaking through this range and establishing a solid footing can Ethereum move upwards more effectively.

ETH broke out of the downtrend channel and has been in a state of consolidation, essentially relying on sideways movement to digest indicators, without choosing to drop directly.

During the weekend, all the small-scale indicators were fully digested, and not only did the price not drop, but the pullback was also particularly small. I originally planned to place a long order below 2930, but the market only went as low as 2943u, and I couldn't enter.

I am still bullish on ETH, as the small-scale indicators are cleanly digested, and the momentum for upward movement has returned, so it could accelerate at any time. However, considering the risks, I will wait for a pullback to enter the market, with the target range still at 2930-2900, which is more prudent.
The trend still presents two possibilities: either it rises directly, or it pulls back before rising again. I choose to wait for a pullback before entering a long position.

Currently, the selling pressure at the resistance level above ETH has basically been digested, and the price is slowly moving upwards, which are very strong bullish signals; definitely do not short. The next target can be seen at the range of 3170-3200.