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#币圈现状

zec开始起飞，这波直接突破就要开始加速上涨了，希望不是骗炮，来波二次爆发吧！

工作日来了开门不错，看起来挺好的行情，期待期待吧，不然的话大家真的都要去隔壁送钱了。

1. $BTC 随着晚间跌破88000后开始反弹，最高夜间接近92000目前在90000附近震荡；

2. $ETH 一大堆大哥在开多单，不知道这周会有什么利好消息，只能说ETH表现挺强的，愿意开的大哥也确实是多；

3. $SOL 链上确实是开始有“复苏”，看看能不能小马拉大车吧，毕竟没有很好的叙事了；

4.Paradigm 联创：此刻正是加密货币的"Netscape/iPhone 时刻"；

5.在1011闪崩后开立空头仓位的“巨鲸”的多头仓位已增加至14,277 ETH，价值超过4295万美元；感觉看到好多“巨鲸”都被爆仓了；

When buying in at over 1.7 million for $1, friends playing with Shiba Inu (memecoin) in the second phase on BSC should pay attention to screening, and try to choose those that haven't 'died out' yet and are not purely relying on news hype.

Although this wave has brought liquidity back to BSC, many new coins can reach a market cap of over a million at their ATH, but in reality, most are just a temporary surge, rising quickly and then continuously declining. For example, the 20x $BUBBLE I had the day before yesterday and the #300 million users from last night only lasted a few hours before continuously hitting new lows. Concepts relying on news hype come quickly and leave just as fast.

So it's best to choose non-news concepts with sustained expectations for the second phase, like $1, which is tied to the top sister concept. As long as the top sister remains the leading figure on Binance, it has a chance to reach new highs again. From the trend, the 1-hour candlestick shows signs of bottoming, and the daily chart is also starting to rise, indicating that the first wave of washing out should be over, and it has already stabilized with a market cap of over a million. Relatively speaking, it is somewhat more stable. #ETH走势分析

Today's pancake has returned to below 90,000, which belongs to an upward rebound, followed by a downward correction. This rise and fall is a normal phenomenon. In an uptrend, a decline may occur, and in a downtrend, an increase may happen; both are part of a consolidation phase. Overall, this kind of market trend can be considered a consolidation market, which is normal.

Judging the intricate details of market movements is actually not difficult. Currently, the hardest part is grasping the overall trend. If you cannot grasp this overall trend well, it is better not to act lightly. As the saying goes, be patient and continuously strengthen your own resolve. #BTC走势分析

There are two important yet opposing interest rate decisions in December:

On December 10th, the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates, as the probability of a rate cut has remained above 85% in the past few days;

On December 19th, the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates, as the governor of the Bank of Japan has already hinted at a potential rate hike.

With these opposing interest rate decisions pulling in different directions, the future trajectory of the crypto market seems somewhat uncertain. Theoretically, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve would increase market liquidity and support a market rise, while a rate hike by Japan would lead to an exit from yen arbitrage trades, increasing selling pressure in the market.

However, considering the current bearish market context, good news often fails to have an impact while bad news tends to resonate, therefore the impact of a yen rate hike is likely to outweigh that of a dollar rate cut. Once the yen rate hike is confirmed, the probability of the crypto market continuing to decline will be relatively high.

Let's take a look at Grayscale's recent actions.

In this round of the bull market, the altcoins that Grayscale holds have basically all surged, and the increase has been significant. From the mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, SOL, BCH, and LPT that surged in the first half of 2024, to XRP, XLM, LTC in the second half of 2024, and then the privacy coins ZEN and ZEC that were hyped last month, and finally BAT, which has been rising in the past few days. You might say Grayscale is a bit slow, but the coins they hold have outperformed 99% of institutions and retail investors in this round of the bull market.

Currently, the only coins held by Grayscale that haven't surged are $ETC, $MANA, and $FIL, and recently Grayscale has been increasing its position in FIL. I currently hold some ETC, as Grayscale still holds $165 million worth of ETC, plus ETC is known to be a last resort, typically surging at the end of every bull market. I'm patiently holding to see if there are any surprises later. #加密市场观察

$AVAX

The 15-minute K-line of avax looks like a flat ECG, a typical high-control market trend! It was mentioned before that it has low volatility sideways on the 4-hour chart, occasionally showing false breaks and quickly recovering, then slowly pushing up again.

Now with the advantages of the ETF, I am still holding it, waiting for the ETF benefits to materialize, and if it can perform like LINK recently, I will decisively exit.

I feel that the recent circle is very uninteresting, and the market keeps going in circles. Every rise fills retail investors with expectations, but the big players always seem to crash the market when a bull market appears to start. This way of playing has already caused most people, including myself, to develop a conditioned reflex: 'When it rises to a certain level, I think about running away.' It has indeed been like this for the past few months; if you don't run, you get trapped.

So how should we respond?

I believe that to grasp the ups and downs of the market, while holding physical assets and wanting to leverage, whether entering or exiting, everything must be done under controllable positions, and a stop-loss position should be added for heavy positions.

Following this line of thought: since the big players have successfully made the market develop a 'bear market mentality', and everyone has become cautious, is there a possibility of a complete 'short squeeze bull market' in the future that breaks this mentality?

From the market structure, the trend is led by altcoins, with mainstream coins following. From a technical perspective, price fluctuations are significant, and there are violent oscillations at key resistance levels, indicating that the bullish power is not resolute, and the market consensus is weak. It is expected to still be difficult tonight, friends doing ultra-short trades remember to fasten your 'seatbelt'. #比特币波动性

12/4 Market Focus

1⃣ BTC, ETH, SOL surge. Last night, signs of a weakening U.S. job market fueled investors' optimism about interest rate cuts, with U.S. stocks slightly up and cryptocurrency concept stocks soaring.

2⃣ The Ethereum mainnet successfully activated the Fusaka upgrade, enhancing mainnet capabilities and reducing L2 fees by 40% to 60%. ETH strongly broke through 320.

3⃣ The Trump administration is considering an executive order on robots next year, boosting U.S. robotic stocks, with SAPIEN soaring 71%. Sustainability is in question.

4⃣ After funding FUD on USDT, it benefits USDC. The latter's market share increased from 24.5% to 25%. CRCL rose 11.4% last night.

5⃣ After a sharp decline, ZEC has stabilized temporarily, currently quoted at 350. Let's see if it can hold above EMA100 (321).

Among the many meme coins on BSC, #VulgarPenguin shows great potential.

Its development path is similar to that of top MEME coins like Pepe and Shib in their early stages: without the strong backing of 'two saints', it completely relies on Web2 memes and natural community growth, with strong community consensus.

Its price trend is highly resilient, quickly reaching new highs after every significant pullback, and reacts the fastest when the market starts to move, making it likely to become the first truly breakout Chinese community MEME coin.

The current market value of over 14 million is far from its limit, but is constrained by the overall market environment. Once the market warms up, it could very well become one of the most elastic and outstanding assets on BSC, worth paying attention to when it's at a low position. #加密市场回调

The lowest-level 'chives' are those who look at news every day, with emotions and cognition guided by the news. When talking about the market, they sound just like economists, rambling on and on, but ultimately, they can't make any money.

Veteran 'chives' look at indicators, but after analyzing the indicators, they realize there is a deceptive aspect. Often, as soon as you enter the market, the show is over, and you're misled by various false breakouts.

Smart money looks at the traces of major players. BTC, gold, and foreign exchange are traded 24 hours a day, and the short- to medium-term fluctuations are dominated by major institutions.

$ASTER

This is a ghost chain supported by subsidies and fake transactions, and it does not deserve such a high market value. Of course, many retail investors holding this coin might criticize me, but it doesn't matter, I will continue to be bearish.

Speaking of which, people who are stuck with ZEC at a high position might still have a chance to break even in 2028, but those who are stuck with ASTER at a high position might not be so lucky.

Currently, the market is weakly adjusting on a downward trajectory. Whether it can strengthen in the future remains to be observed. Regarding TOM Lee's call for a new high by the end of the year and the view that ETH will reach 9000 in January next year, it's best for everyone to just take a look and not to fantasize;

Currently, the probability of Bitcoin falling below 80,000 USD in December on Polymarket has risen to 55%, while the probability of falling below 70,000 USD is temporarily reported at 15%. Additionally, the probability of breaking through 100,000 USD is temporarily reported at 28%;

Bitcoin's 4-hour level has support around 84,000, but this support is too weak, and there are currently no signs of stabilization in the short term. Next, we will see if it can return to 90,000 USD in the short term. If the daily level stabilizes above 90,000 USD, it would mean that a short-term rebound may be coming; otherwise, it’s unlikely. Therefore, at this stage, maintaining learning or lying flat is the best choice; not trading means making money.

Let's review the hot coins again today

New coins

$tcg
Narrative: The Collector Group @collectdotrip
Official streaming token
Price: Highest 1.3M, Current 620K

$bear
Highest 2.4M, Current 1.3M, in decline

Newly listed coins

$马到成功
Reached a new high of 3.6M, Current 2.8M

$阿米嘎蒂朵
Reached a new high of 1.4M, Current 1M

$kabuto
Reached a new high of 5.6M, Current 4.5M

$moncock
Reached a new high of 3.1M, Current 2.2M

Old coins

$griffain
Increased from 11.22 lowest 11.8M to highest 24.7M, Current 22.3M

The way for VCs to monetize through raising FDV in the future won't work anymore～

After wave after wave of harvesting, retail investors are either out of the game or simply not buying～

In the future, regardless of your background or how impressive your VC is, no one will engage with high FDV projects～

In the past, everyone loved to dream, but now that the dream is over, everyone will be more pragmatic in the future, especially retail investors～

Without data and real users, all projects are garbage. The market used to recognize fat protocols, but in the future, the market will only recognize fat applications～#加密市场回调

The gap between centralized and decentralized exchanges is narrowing at an unprecedented speed.

The trading volume ratio of DEX derivatives skyrocketed from 2.1% on January 2, 2023, to 11.7% on November 11, 2025, setting a new historical high.

#Hyperliquid has become a major driving force, with trading volume reaching $2.74 trillion in 2025. High-performance on-chain engines are now comparable to traditional exchanges.

The trend continues to strengthen, and it is expected that by 2026, DEX will account for 15%-20% of the global derivatives trading volume. #DeFi