一转眼就长大
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12月6日，芬兰专家马利宁发出警告：“欧盟主席冯德莱恩正在蓄意将欧洲引向彻底毁灭的道路上”。
之所以发出这个警告，就是因为冯德莱恩固执己见，一定要将冻结的1400亿欧元俄罗斯资金以“赔款贷款”方式给乌克兰，比利时方面作为这笔资金监管方，曾多次向冯德莱恩表达反对意见，比利时认为，这笔钱一旦拿到乌克兰，欧洲经济将会有崩盘的风险。
有意思的是，冯德莱恩根本不管这些，几天前，欧洲中央银行和美国方面都向冯德莱恩表达了反对意见，美国认为动用这笔资金的风险实在太大，而且俄罗斯的二号人物梅德韦杰夫也公开表态：“敢动这笔钱，就相当于对俄罗斯变相宣战”，所以，现在全欧洲，都在担心冯德莱恩会惹怒俄罗斯。
马利宁说的这些并不是空穴来风，这个冯德莱恩如果真的把钱给了乌克兰，乌克兰最起码还能和俄罗斯打三年，过去3年里俄乌双方损失的人数早就超百万，如果再打3年，可能还要有百万人死亡，这简直就是“灭族之战”，一旦战场失控，俄罗斯把战火引到其它欧洲国家，凭借普京的强硬手段，估计整个欧洲都不是对手，普京曾对欧盟发出警告：“一旦俄罗斯对欧盟发动进攻，只能是闪电战”，所以，冯德莱恩正在一步一步挑战俄罗斯底线，就是想把欧洲引向毁灭的道路。
之所以发出这个警告，就是因为冯德莱恩固执己见，一定要将冻结的1400亿欧元俄罗斯资金以“赔款贷款”方式给乌克兰，比利时方面作为这笔资金监管方，曾多次向冯德莱恩表达反对意见，比利时认为，这笔钱一旦拿到乌克兰，欧洲经济将会有崩盘的风险。
有意思的是，冯德莱恩根本不管这些，几天前，欧洲中央银行和美国方面都向冯德莱恩表达了反对意见，美国认为动用这笔资金的风险实在太大，而且俄罗斯的二号人物梅德韦杰夫也公开表态：“敢动这笔钱，就相当于对俄罗斯变相宣战”，所以，现在全欧洲，都在担心冯德莱恩会惹怒俄罗斯。
马利宁说的这些并不是空穴来风，这个冯德莱恩如果真的把钱给了乌克兰，乌克兰最起码还能和俄罗斯打三年，过去3年里俄乌双方损失的人数早就超百万，如果再打3年，可能还要有百万人死亡，这简直就是“灭族之战”，一旦战场失控，俄罗斯把战火引到其它欧洲国家，凭借普京的强硬手段，估计整个欧洲都不是对手，普京曾对欧盟发出警告：“一旦俄罗斯对欧盟发动进攻，只能是闪电战”，所以，冯德莱恩正在一步一步挑战俄罗斯底线，就是想把欧洲引向毁灭的道路。
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周五大涨后，周末消息面暖风频吹，所以大家对于下周行情充满信心，有些人开始唱多下周要冲击4000点了。
下周会不会冲击4000点不得而知，但不要忘记每次当大家信心满满准备大干一场时，结果就被市场狠狠的干掉了，被市场教育了，但投资者不管受过多少次伤，总会有大量的投资者无数次被同一块石头绊倒，同样的坑能无数次让同一个人上当，没办法，人性的贪婪与恐惧永远存在，想明白了也就能理解为什么总会在市场亏钱呢。
周五之所以上涨我们盘前是有预期的，央行释放万亿流动性是明牌。从11月三次央行放水的数据我们足以得出结论，两次上涨一次下跌，放水当日上涨的概率是非常大的，而本周三连跌三天后本就存在超跌反弹要求，周四属于明显的阶段性的地量，地量地价，所以我们预判周五会反弹。但周五下午突然的大幅拉升是我所不能预期的，当然突然拉升是有原因的，主要是消息面传来“险企投资相关股票风险因子下调，或将释放超千亿元入市资金”，简单理解为加大保险资金入市的规模，实际释放千亿资金，这点资金对于每天至少1.5万亿的以上的上的成交来说意义不大，像主力资金动不动几百亿的净流出，所以千亿增量对市场影响并不大，但市场本就是炒作的预期罢了，在连跌三天后，早盘市场风格转换整体不错，一旦午后遇利好出现较大力度的拉升也很正常。
从利好的角度来看周五保险资金入市的利好基本已消化掉了，只不过短线营造出来氛围还不错，而周五晚间中概股大涨以及周末吴村长的讲话又给下周市场带来想像力，当然下周也就是12月9号至10号是美联储今年的最后一次议息会议，市场对于年终最后一次降息的预期升至90%左右，一旦降息势必会对短线行情带来刺激，所以总体看，下周行情的预期是非常不错的。
吴清在中国证券业协会第八次会员大会上表示：适度拓宽券商资本空间与杠杆上限，从价格竞争转向价值竞争。大家最关心的就是“适度拓宽杠杆上限”这七个字——是不是要放开两融？
如果支持市场的角度来看，主要还在于扩大融资的杠杆，截至2025年12月4日，A股融资余额为24,665亿元。这一数据较前一日有所增长，反映了市场融资活动的活跃度。这个绝对金额已超过2015年牛市融资总额，但比例远没有那时大。至少说明监管对于当下的融资的杠杆水平是认可的，还有进一步扩大的空间，借钱给你炒股，相当给市场注入流动性，自然利好资本市场。
吴主席讲话的核心其实是行业供给侧改革。现在头部券商没国际话语权，小券商天天打价格战内耗。监管这招“分类监管”很精准：
给好学生发糖：让优质券商（比如头部和特色精品券商）能撬动更多资本搞并购、做创新业务，别总在佣金上死磕。
给差生亮红牌：问题机构该整顿整顿，别再浑水摸鱼。
让外资有戏唱：差异化政策给外资券商生存空间，倒逼本土机构提升服务。
杠杆松绑≠大水漫灌
当前2.47万亿融资余额（占流通市值约2.8%）确实在安全线内，监管敢提“拓宽”说明认可风险可控。但要警惕三点：
“适度”是关键词：绝对不可能回到2015年疯狂加杠杆的模式，规则细则（比如标的扩容节奏、保证金比例）才是关键。
券商自己先要过关：资本金不足、风控差的券商根本享受不到政策红利。
资金有滞后性：从政策吹风到真金白银流入市场，至少得等交易所出细则。
下周市场会怎么走？
短期看情绪肯定利好，尤其券商股周一高开概率大。但想靠一句话冲4000点？投资者必须清醒：
券商板块最受益：杠杆放宽直接利好资本中介业务（两融、做市），中信/中金这类资本雄厚的头部券商，以及特色投行能力强的中小券商值得关注。
金融股有联动效应：周五保险利好+今天券商利好，可能带动银行、金融科技等板块形成短期热点。
全局影响有限：当前市场核心矛盾是企业盈利能否回暖（看看11月PMI还在收缩区间），杠杆资金只能锦上添花。
一句话总结：政策是及时雨，但别指望靠它逆转旱情。下周若券商带头上攻，重点观察两点：一是成交额能否突破两万亿，二是政策细则何时落地。市场自有其规律，等风来不如先站稳——手里有现金流充沛的好公司，比赌政策风口更踏实。
下周会不会冲击4000点不得而知，但不要忘记每次当大家信心满满准备大干一场时，结果就被市场狠狠的干掉了，被市场教育了，但投资者不管受过多少次伤，总会有大量的投资者无数次被同一块石头绊倒，同样的坑能无数次让同一个人上当，没办法，人性的贪婪与恐惧永远存在，想明白了也就能理解为什么总会在市场亏钱呢。
周五之所以上涨我们盘前是有预期的，央行释放万亿流动性是明牌。从11月三次央行放水的数据我们足以得出结论，两次上涨一次下跌，放水当日上涨的概率是非常大的，而本周三连跌三天后本就存在超跌反弹要求，周四属于明显的阶段性的地量，地量地价，所以我们预判周五会反弹。但周五下午突然的大幅拉升是我所不能预期的，当然突然拉升是有原因的，主要是消息面传来“险企投资相关股票风险因子下调，或将释放超千亿元入市资金”，简单理解为加大保险资金入市的规模，实际释放千亿资金，这点资金对于每天至少1.5万亿的以上的上的成交来说意义不大，像主力资金动不动几百亿的净流出，所以千亿增量对市场影响并不大，但市场本就是炒作的预期罢了，在连跌三天后，早盘市场风格转换整体不错，一旦午后遇利好出现较大力度的拉升也很正常。
从利好的角度来看周五保险资金入市的利好基本已消化掉了，只不过短线营造出来氛围还不错，而周五晚间中概股大涨以及周末吴村长的讲话又给下周市场带来想像力，当然下周也就是12月9号至10号是美联储今年的最后一次议息会议，市场对于年终最后一次降息的预期升至90%左右，一旦降息势必会对短线行情带来刺激，所以总体看，下周行情的预期是非常不错的。
吴清在中国证券业协会第八次会员大会上表示：适度拓宽券商资本空间与杠杆上限，从价格竞争转向价值竞争。大家最关心的就是“适度拓宽杠杆上限”这七个字——是不是要放开两融？
如果支持市场的角度来看，主要还在于扩大融资的杠杆，截至2025年12月4日，A股融资余额为24,665亿元。这一数据较前一日有所增长，反映了市场融资活动的活跃度。这个绝对金额已超过2015年牛市融资总额，但比例远没有那时大。至少说明监管对于当下的融资的杠杆水平是认可的，还有进一步扩大的空间，借钱给你炒股，相当给市场注入流动性，自然利好资本市场。
吴主席讲话的核心其实是行业供给侧改革。现在头部券商没国际话语权，小券商天天打价格战内耗。监管这招“分类监管”很精准：
给好学生发糖：让优质券商（比如头部和特色精品券商）能撬动更多资本搞并购、做创新业务，别总在佣金上死磕。
给差生亮红牌：问题机构该整顿整顿，别再浑水摸鱼。
让外资有戏唱：差异化政策给外资券商生存空间，倒逼本土机构提升服务。
杠杆松绑≠大水漫灌
当前2.47万亿融资余额（占流通市值约2.8%）确实在安全线内，监管敢提“拓宽”说明认可风险可控。但要警惕三点：
“适度”是关键词：绝对不可能回到2015年疯狂加杠杆的模式，规则细则（比如标的扩容节奏、保证金比例）才是关键。
券商自己先要过关：资本金不足、风控差的券商根本享受不到政策红利。
资金有滞后性：从政策吹风到真金白银流入市场，至少得等交易所出细则。
下周市场会怎么走？
短期看情绪肯定利好，尤其券商股周一高开概率大。但想靠一句话冲4000点？投资者必须清醒：
券商板块最受益：杠杆放宽直接利好资本中介业务（两融、做市），中信/中金这类资本雄厚的头部券商，以及特色投行能力强的中小券商值得关注。
金融股有联动效应：周五保险利好+今天券商利好，可能带动银行、金融科技等板块形成短期热点。
全局影响有限：当前市场核心矛盾是企业盈利能否回暖（看看11月PMI还在收缩区间），杠杆资金只能锦上添花。
一句话总结：政策是及时雨，但别指望靠它逆转旱情。下周若券商带头上攻，重点观察两点：一是成交额能否突破两万亿，二是政策细则何时落地。市场自有其规律，等风来不如先站稳——手里有现金流充沛的好公司，比赌政策风口更踏实。
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美国现在对中国使的招，跟当年整垮日本用的手段一模一样！如今他们计划已完成一大半，只要供应链彻底成型，到时候根本不用动武，就能达成目标。
看看40年前美国收拾日本的套路就懂了——当年日本经济一路狂奔，GDP直逼美国七成，结果美国一纸《广场协议》砸下来，逼着日元三年内升值一倍多，直接抽走了日本出口的竞争力。
紧接着又瞄准日本的半导体产业，用反倾销诉讼和技术封锁双管齐下，把占全球市场份额80%的日本存储芯片企业打得溃不成军，最终让日本陷入了"失去的三十年"。现在这套组合拳，正原封不动地甩向中国，只不过这次的重点从汇率变成了更致命的供应链。
美国对付中国的第一步，和当年整日本如出一辙：先拿贸易开刀制造摩擦。2018年起，美国就对中国输美商品加征最高25%的关税，覆盖金额超过3000亿美元，这和当年对日本汽车、电子产品加税的手法一模一样。
但中国比当年的日本更有韧性，外贸顺差没被彻底打垮，于是美国立刻转向第二步——精准打击核心产业。当年他们盯的是日本半导体，现在则把枪口对准了中国的高科技领域，尤其是芯片。
2022年出台的芯片法案，堪称现代版的"半导体绞杀令"：不仅禁止向中国出口先进制程芯片，还逼着三星、台积电这些企业在美国建厂，甚至不准用美国技术的企业给华为供货。
这招比当年对付日本更狠，当年美国还只是限制成品出口，现在直接从设备、材料、技术全链条封锁，妄图把中国芯片产业困死在低端。就像当年日本半导体企业失去美国市场后一蹶不振，美国也想让中国的5G、人工智能等产业因为缺芯而停滞。
最关键的第三步，也是美国现在全力推进的供应链重构，这可比当年的手段阴狠多了。当年美国只是通过贸易规则限制日本，现在则直接动手拆解全球供应链，要把中国从高端制造体系里踢出去。他们拉着日本、韩国、台湾地区搞"芯片四方联盟"，把先进芯片产能集中到自己可控的范围内；又在新能源领域推动"近岸外包"，说服苹果、特斯拉把电池厂建在墨西哥、东南亚，避开中国的锂加工产业链。
目前这步棋已经走了大半。芯片领域，台积电亚利桑那工厂已经投产，三星德州工厂也在加紧建设，全球10纳米以下先进制程产能正逐步向美国转移；新能源方面，美国通过《通胀削减法案》，用巨额补贴吸引企业迁厂，已经有多家锂加工企业宣布在北美建厂。更要命的是，美国还在逼迫盟友选边站，要求欧盟不得使用中国的5G设备，让日本限制半导体材料对中国出口，这套"朋友圈围堵"的玩法，和当年联合西方打压日本的路数完全一致。
美国心里打得算盘很清楚：当年日本因为产业链过度依赖出口，被掐住贸易和技术命脉后无力反抗；现在中国是"世界工厂"，供应链遍布全球，只要把中国从高端制造的关键环节中剥离，让核心零部件、高端材料都依赖美国主导的体系，到时候根本不用动武，只需一个禁令就能让中国的高科技产业停摆。就像当年日本汽车产业因为缺少芯片被迫减产，未来美国要是切断供应链，中国的新能源汽车、智能手机、工业机器人产业都可能面临同样的困境。
更值得警惕的是，美国还在复制当年"转移风险"的套路。当年美国把自身经济失衡的压力转嫁给日本，现在则借着供应链重构，把制造业回流的成本转嫁给盟友和企业。
日本被迫向美国投资5500亿美元，还要开放农产品市场，这不就是当年《广场协议》的翻版吗？而中国面临的，是美国联合盟友打造的"排他性供应链"，一旦这套体系彻底成型，中国再想进入高端制造领域，就会像现在的日本一样，处处受制于人。
但中国和当年的日本有本质不同：日本当年在安全上完全依赖美国，谈判时连还价的底气都没有；而中国有完整的工业体系，能自己生产从口罩到卫星的几乎所有产品，这是日本当年从未拥有过的韧性。美国想靠供应链绞杀中国，恐怕会比整垮日本难得多。
可即便如此，我们也不能掉以轻心——当年日本就是从半导体巅峰跌落谷底，才陷入长期停滞，美国这套屡试不爽的套路，每一步都藏着让中国产业断血的杀机。现在供应链的争夺战已经进入白热化，这才是比贸易战更凶险的较量。
看看40年前美国收拾日本的套路就懂了——当年日本经济一路狂奔，GDP直逼美国七成，结果美国一纸《广场协议》砸下来，逼着日元三年内升值一倍多，直接抽走了日本出口的竞争力。
紧接着又瞄准日本的半导体产业，用反倾销诉讼和技术封锁双管齐下，把占全球市场份额80%的日本存储芯片企业打得溃不成军，最终让日本陷入了"失去的三十年"。现在这套组合拳，正原封不动地甩向中国，只不过这次的重点从汇率变成了更致命的供应链。
美国对付中国的第一步，和当年整日本如出一辙：先拿贸易开刀制造摩擦。2018年起，美国就对中国输美商品加征最高25%的关税，覆盖金额超过3000亿美元，这和当年对日本汽车、电子产品加税的手法一模一样。
但中国比当年的日本更有韧性，外贸顺差没被彻底打垮，于是美国立刻转向第二步——精准打击核心产业。当年他们盯的是日本半导体，现在则把枪口对准了中国的高科技领域，尤其是芯片。
2022年出台的芯片法案，堪称现代版的"半导体绞杀令"：不仅禁止向中国出口先进制程芯片，还逼着三星、台积电这些企业在美国建厂，甚至不准用美国技术的企业给华为供货。
这招比当年对付日本更狠，当年美国还只是限制成品出口，现在直接从设备、材料、技术全链条封锁，妄图把中国芯片产业困死在低端。就像当年日本半导体企业失去美国市场后一蹶不振，美国也想让中国的5G、人工智能等产业因为缺芯而停滞。
最关键的第三步，也是美国现在全力推进的供应链重构，这可比当年的手段阴狠多了。当年美国只是通过贸易规则限制日本，现在则直接动手拆解全球供应链，要把中国从高端制造体系里踢出去。他们拉着日本、韩国、台湾地区搞"芯片四方联盟"，把先进芯片产能集中到自己可控的范围内；又在新能源领域推动"近岸外包"，说服苹果、特斯拉把电池厂建在墨西哥、东南亚，避开中国的锂加工产业链。
目前这步棋已经走了大半。芯片领域，台积电亚利桑那工厂已经投产，三星德州工厂也在加紧建设，全球10纳米以下先进制程产能正逐步向美国转移；新能源方面，美国通过《通胀削减法案》，用巨额补贴吸引企业迁厂，已经有多家锂加工企业宣布在北美建厂。更要命的是，美国还在逼迫盟友选边站，要求欧盟不得使用中国的5G设备，让日本限制半导体材料对中国出口，这套"朋友圈围堵"的玩法，和当年联合西方打压日本的路数完全一致。
美国心里打得算盘很清楚：当年日本因为产业链过度依赖出口，被掐住贸易和技术命脉后无力反抗；现在中国是"世界工厂"，供应链遍布全球，只要把中国从高端制造的关键环节中剥离，让核心零部件、高端材料都依赖美国主导的体系，到时候根本不用动武，只需一个禁令就能让中国的高科技产业停摆。就像当年日本汽车产业因为缺少芯片被迫减产，未来美国要是切断供应链，中国的新能源汽车、智能手机、工业机器人产业都可能面临同样的困境。
更值得警惕的是，美国还在复制当年"转移风险"的套路。当年美国把自身经济失衡的压力转嫁给日本，现在则借着供应链重构，把制造业回流的成本转嫁给盟友和企业。
日本被迫向美国投资5500亿美元，还要开放农产品市场，这不就是当年《广场协议》的翻版吗？而中国面临的，是美国联合盟友打造的"排他性供应链"，一旦这套体系彻底成型，中国再想进入高端制造领域，就会像现在的日本一样，处处受制于人。
但中国和当年的日本有本质不同：日本当年在安全上完全依赖美国，谈判时连还价的底气都没有；而中国有完整的工业体系，能自己生产从口罩到卫星的几乎所有产品，这是日本当年从未拥有过的韧性。美国想靠供应链绞杀中国，恐怕会比整垮日本难得多。
可即便如此，我们也不能掉以轻心——当年日本就是从半导体巅峰跌落谷底，才陷入长期停滞，美国这套屡试不爽的套路，每一步都藏着让中国产业断血的杀机。现在供应链的争夺战已经进入白热化，这才是比贸易战更凶险的较量。
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The United States has taken severe measures against China, not only provoking China's core interests but also issuing military threats, the severity of which is unprecedented. The White House released a new version of the 'National Security Strategy' on December 5, mentioning 'Taiwan,' which belongs to China's internal affairs and core interests, a total of 8 times. The document shows that in this so-called latest strategic document, the U.S. views Taiwan as the 'core focus' of its so-called Indo-Pacific security framework and emphasizes the need to 'deter' possible actions by China through military advantages and cooperation with allies. The White House's new strategic document mentions 'Taiwan' 8 times and calls for 'deterring China with military advantages.' What kind of strategic planning is that? The document states the need to 'unite allies to protect Taiwan,' but the military sales to Taiwan in the first half of 2025 are only $1 billion, which is less than a fraction of the monthly aid to Ukraine; the so-called 'military advantages' seem more like self-deception, as the U.S. military only has 420 active aircraft in the western Pacific, while the PLA has more than 550 J-20s alone, not to mention a naval fleet of 450 vessels—this gap cannot be bridged by mere slogans. The deeper motives are hidden in the books of the military-industrial complex. In 2025, public data shows that major arms dealers like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon spent $120 million lobbying Congress, with the proposal for military sales to Taiwan being a key project—what appears to be 'generous' military sales is actually overpriced 'outdated goods'; the cost of the F-16V upgrade package procured by the Taiwanese military is 32% higher than that for Poland, and it includes a clause of 'no early repayment,' allowing the U.S. to profit from 'anxiety money.' The most ironic part is that the 500 advisors sent by the U.S. to 'train the Taiwanese military' showed their timidity as soon as they arrived in Kaohsiung. Taiwanese military pilots privately revealed that the air defense tactics taught by the U.S. are from 20 years ago and are completely useless against the PLA's electronic warfare aircraft. The U.S. treats Taiwan as the 'core focus,' but Taiwan's economic lifeline is already intertwined with the mainland. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the trade volume between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait reached $231.162 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with Taiwan having a trade surplus of $78.6 billion with the mainland, equivalent to half a year's livelihood expenditure for all of Taiwan. The experience of fruit farmer Mr. Chen in Kaohsiung is very real: in 2024, he followed the trend of shouting 'anti-China,' resulting in 30 tons of pomelos rotting; in 2025, he restored sales to the mainland, selling out 200 tons in 10 days, bluntly stating, 'The U.S. won't buy my pomelos; don't joke with my livelihood.' Looking at America's 'circle of allies,' they are all talk and no action. At the G7 summit, the U.S., Japan, and Australia shouted for 'stability in the Taiwan Strait,' but Japan did not increase its special allocation for Taiwan in its defense budget for 2025; Australia claims 'support' but secretly increased its iron ore exports to China by 15%; South Korea is even more direct—after an official just stated that 'the security of Taiwan Strait is linked to the peninsula,' they immediately sent a trade delegation to the mainland to discuss cooperation—no one wants to offend their largest trading partner for Taiwan. Comparing the scenes when the U.S. Seventh Fleet entered the Taiwan Strait in 1950, the current reversal of power has long been a foregone conclusion. Back then, the PLA didn't even have decent warships and could only watch helplessly as the U.S. military ran rampant; now it is different. In the 2025 exercises around Taiwan, PLA drones hovered over the Taiwan Strait for 72 hours, accurately locking onto 12 missile positions of the Taiwanese military, while the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier hid in the Philippine Sea and dared not approach—this is the counterkill of 'military deterrence.' The U.S. tactic of 'using Taiwan to contain China' has long been seen through by Taiwanese people. Polls from Taiwanese media show that 72% of young people oppose 'fighting for the U.S.,' and among 2.31 million reservists, less than 15% actively participated in training last year. Interestingly, the newly commissioned 'Hai Kun' submarine of the Taiwanese military, touted as a 'self-made ace,' relies entirely on the U.S. for its core MK-48 torpedoes; once war breaks out and supply is cut off, it will be a toothless tiger. The PLA's response has long surpassed the framework of 'passive countermeasures.' In 2025, the three new 055 destroyers have all been deployed to the East Sea Fleet; the Rocket Force's Dongfeng-17 missiles accurately hit moving target ships during exercises, with a range covering the entire strait; more critically, the 'civil-military integration' strategy has established 20 dual-use docks along the coast of Fujian, which can be converted to transport vessels within 4 hours if needed—this is the hard power of 'subduing the enemy without fighting.' The U.S. strategy will only exacerbate the risks in the Taiwan Strait. The $1.2 billion NASAMS air defense system approved by the U.S. in November 2025 will not be delivered until 2027, leaving the Taiwanese military to rely on outdated 'Patriot' systems for now; meanwhile, the PLA's routine patrols have shifted from 'circumventing Taiwan' to 'passing through islands,' with 32 instances of aircraft crossing the so-called 'median line of the strait' in 2025 alone—Taiwan's air defense alerts have long been worn out. The subsequent trajectory is very clear: the U.S. will continue to 'paint cakes' for Taiwan, but arms sales will only sell 'outdated goods' and will never genuinely help in fighting; the DPP may continue to buy weapons to bolster confidence, but the reality of economic dependence on the mainland cannot be changed; while the PLA will continue to solidify its strength, turning 'the Taiwan Strait is China's internal sea' from a legal fact into a physical reality. As the president of the Xiamen Taiwan Business Association said, 'A U.S. strategic document can't feed anyone; doing business well between the two sides is the right path.' The U.S. mentioning Taiwan 8 times is just a struggle trapped in the anxiety of containing China. From the 'give me back my rivers and mountains' at the time of Taiwan's recovery in 1945 to the continuous growth of trade volume between the two sides in 2025; from the U.S. military running rampant in the Taiwan Strait back then to the PLA controlling the situation now, history has long engraved 'Taiwan is part of China' into the power structure. Does the U.S. really think it can turn the tide with a piece of strategic paper? It is purely wishful thinking—strength is the final arbiter of the Taiwan Strait situation.
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新消息
日本正式宣布了
新华社北京12月6日电 日本政府5日公布的数据显示，日本10月消费者支出以近两年来最快速度下滑，给日本经济前景蒙上阴影。
消费者支出是经济增长的主要引擎，占据日本GDP一半以上。其断崖式下滑，直接原因是所谓的“价格-工资螺旋”没有出现。
尽管通胀因进口成本上升而持续，但企业将成本转嫁给消费者后，并未同步提高员工薪资。
扣除通胀因素后，日本工人的实际工资已连续十几个月负增长。这意味着普通家庭的购买力持续缩水，不得不削减食品、服装、外出就餐等非必需开支。
2025财年的国防预算草案已逼近历史高点。一面是民众为生计节衣缩食，另一面是政府不断加码的巨额军费，这种“民生紧缩”与“军备扩张”的对比，正在考验社会的承受力与凝聚力。
历史上，大萧条时期的德国和日本，都曾出现过类似“大炮与黄油”的艰难抉择，最终民粹与军国主义结合，将国家引向危险道路。
今天的日本虽不至于重蹈覆辙，但经济基础与战略野心的不匹配，是其“大国化”道路上最根本的结构性风险。
消费疲软的深层推手，是日本难以逆转的超老龄化和人口萎缩。65岁以上人口占比已接近30%，位居世界第一。老龄化社会对消费的影响是复杂而深远的。
老年人消费倾向（即收入中用于消费的比例）远低于年轻人和中产家庭。他们更倾向于储蓄以应对医疗和漫长的退休生活，而非进行大宗消费或体验式消费。这导致整个经济循环中的“活水”减少，内需市场不断收缩。
从军事和战略角度看，老龄化是比任何外部威胁都更致命的“慢性病”。它从三个层面侵蚀日本的战争潜力与综合国力：
一是兵源枯竭。 自卫队长期面临招募困难，适龄青年人数逐年递减，许多部队满员率不足八成。防卫省甚至开始讨论扩大女性兵役、提高年龄上限、招募外籍人员等此前难以想象的方案。一支严重老龄化的军队，其战斗意志、体力、对新装备的接受能力都存在疑问。
二是财政黑洞。 社会保障（养老金、医疗、护理）支出已占国家预算的三分之一以上，且逐年增长，不断挤占本可用于科技研发、基础设施更新和教育投入的宝贵资源。国防预算的增长，实质是与社保、民生支出在争夺同一块日益缩小的财政蛋糕，必然引发激烈的国内政治斗争和社会矛盾。
三是创新乏力。 年轻人口减少意味着市场缩小、创业活力下降，进而影响整个国家的技术创新与产业升级动能。没有强大的经济和科技基础，任何先进的武器装备都将是空中楼阁。
历史反复证明，决定长期竞争胜负的，是人口结构、经济活力与技术创新，而非一时的军备数量。19世纪末的清朝北洋水师，装备亚洲第一却一败涂地，其根本原因就在于国家整体的腐朽与停滞。
20世纪30年代，面对经济大萧条，德日意选择了对外扩张的军国主义道路。虽然历史不会简单重复，但逻辑有相似之处。
当前日本政府一方面强化日美同盟，深度嵌入美国的“印太战略”，另一方面积极武装自身，突破“专守防卫”，其背后的动机除了所谓的外部威胁感知，也夹杂着复杂的国内政治经济算计。
其一，通过渲染外部危机（如台海、朝鲜），为增加军费、突破和平宪法束缚制造“正当性”，凝聚国内保守派支持。
其二，试图以军事和安全合作为切入点，拉动国内相关产业（如军工、造船），创造就业，部分替代疲软的内需。 近年来，日本积极推动国防装备出口，修改“防卫装备转移三原则”，其经济意图十分明显。
其三，在与中国长期博弈的背景下，通过充当美国在东亚的“前沿支点”，换取美国在贸易、科技等领域的支持，为自身经济寻找外部依托。
地缘政治紧张本身就会抑制企业投资和民间往来，反过来损害日本的经济前景，形成“安全困境”与“经济困境”相互强化的恶性循环。
10月消费数据的“断崖”，是一面镜子，照出了日本光鲜的科技外表和军事雄心之下，深藏的社会经济结构性脆弱。
老龄化、高债务、内需萎缩、创新瓶颈，这些是比任何外部舰队都更真实的“国家安全威胁”。
历史反复昭示一个简单而残酷的道理：没有坚实、均衡、可持续的国民经济和健康的社会结构作为根基，任何对外扩张的军事野心都如同沙上筑塔。
从西班牙无敌舰队的覆灭到苏联的解体，表面是军事失利，实则是经济和社会体系的全面溃败。
日本若不能正视并全力解决其内部的经济社会沉疴，而将过多资源与政治资本倾注于对外军事力量的“狂飙突进”，那么其“大国化”之路必将充满颠簸，甚至可能因内外失衡而遭遇意想不到的风险。
对于一个资源匮乏、严重依赖外部市场的岛国而言，繁荣稳定的内部社会，才是抵御一切风浪的最坚固航母。
日本正式宣布了
新华社北京12月6日电 日本政府5日公布的数据显示，日本10月消费者支出以近两年来最快速度下滑，给日本经济前景蒙上阴影。
消费者支出是经济增长的主要引擎，占据日本GDP一半以上。其断崖式下滑，直接原因是所谓的“价格-工资螺旋”没有出现。
尽管通胀因进口成本上升而持续，但企业将成本转嫁给消费者后，并未同步提高员工薪资。
扣除通胀因素后，日本工人的实际工资已连续十几个月负增长。这意味着普通家庭的购买力持续缩水，不得不削减食品、服装、外出就餐等非必需开支。
2025财年的国防预算草案已逼近历史高点。一面是民众为生计节衣缩食，另一面是政府不断加码的巨额军费，这种“民生紧缩”与“军备扩张”的对比，正在考验社会的承受力与凝聚力。
历史上，大萧条时期的德国和日本，都曾出现过类似“大炮与黄油”的艰难抉择，最终民粹与军国主义结合，将国家引向危险道路。
今天的日本虽不至于重蹈覆辙，但经济基础与战略野心的不匹配，是其“大国化”道路上最根本的结构性风险。
消费疲软的深层推手，是日本难以逆转的超老龄化和人口萎缩。65岁以上人口占比已接近30%，位居世界第一。老龄化社会对消费的影响是复杂而深远的。
老年人消费倾向（即收入中用于消费的比例）远低于年轻人和中产家庭。他们更倾向于储蓄以应对医疗和漫长的退休生活，而非进行大宗消费或体验式消费。这导致整个经济循环中的“活水”减少，内需市场不断收缩。
从军事和战略角度看，老龄化是比任何外部威胁都更致命的“慢性病”。它从三个层面侵蚀日本的战争潜力与综合国力：
一是兵源枯竭。 自卫队长期面临招募困难，适龄青年人数逐年递减，许多部队满员率不足八成。防卫省甚至开始讨论扩大女性兵役、提高年龄上限、招募外籍人员等此前难以想象的方案。一支严重老龄化的军队，其战斗意志、体力、对新装备的接受能力都存在疑问。
二是财政黑洞。 社会保障（养老金、医疗、护理）支出已占国家预算的三分之一以上，且逐年增长，不断挤占本可用于科技研发、基础设施更新和教育投入的宝贵资源。国防预算的增长，实质是与社保、民生支出在争夺同一块日益缩小的财政蛋糕，必然引发激烈的国内政治斗争和社会矛盾。
三是创新乏力。 年轻人口减少意味着市场缩小、创业活力下降，进而影响整个国家的技术创新与产业升级动能。没有强大的经济和科技基础，任何先进的武器装备都将是空中楼阁。
历史反复证明，决定长期竞争胜负的，是人口结构、经济活力与技术创新，而非一时的军备数量。19世纪末的清朝北洋水师，装备亚洲第一却一败涂地，其根本原因就在于国家整体的腐朽与停滞。
20世纪30年代，面对经济大萧条，德日意选择了对外扩张的军国主义道路。虽然历史不会简单重复，但逻辑有相似之处。
当前日本政府一方面强化日美同盟，深度嵌入美国的“印太战略”，另一方面积极武装自身，突破“专守防卫”，其背后的动机除了所谓的外部威胁感知，也夹杂着复杂的国内政治经济算计。
其一，通过渲染外部危机（如台海、朝鲜），为增加军费、突破和平宪法束缚制造“正当性”，凝聚国内保守派支持。
其二，试图以军事和安全合作为切入点，拉动国内相关产业（如军工、造船），创造就业，部分替代疲软的内需。 近年来，日本积极推动国防装备出口，修改“防卫装备转移三原则”，其经济意图十分明显。
其三，在与中国长期博弈的背景下，通过充当美国在东亚的“前沿支点”，换取美国在贸易、科技等领域的支持，为自身经济寻找外部依托。
地缘政治紧张本身就会抑制企业投资和民间往来，反过来损害日本的经济前景，形成“安全困境”与“经济困境”相互强化的恶性循环。
10月消费数据的“断崖”，是一面镜子，照出了日本光鲜的科技外表和军事雄心之下，深藏的社会经济结构性脆弱。
老龄化、高债务、内需萎缩、创新瓶颈，这些是比任何外部舰队都更真实的“国家安全威胁”。
历史反复昭示一个简单而残酷的道理：没有坚实、均衡、可持续的国民经济和健康的社会结构作为根基，任何对外扩张的军事野心都如同沙上筑塔。
从西班牙无敌舰队的覆灭到苏联的解体，表面是军事失利，实则是经济和社会体系的全面溃败。
日本若不能正视并全力解决其内部的经济社会沉疴，而将过多资源与政治资本倾注于对外军事力量的“狂飙突进”，那么其“大国化”之路必将充满颠簸，甚至可能因内外失衡而遭遇意想不到的风险。
对于一个资源匮乏、严重依赖外部市场的岛国而言，繁荣稳定的内部社会，才是抵御一切风浪的最坚固航母。
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巴西对华消息！
2025年12月5日，巴西外贸委员会宣布，对原产于中国的车载扬声器维持征收高达78.3%的反倾销税，措施有效期长达五年。这一决定意味着中国相关产品在巴西市场的价格优势将几乎归零。
巴西外贸委员会12月5日的反倾销公告，给中国车载扬声器企业泼了盆冷水！78.3%的税率、五年有效期，直接抹平价格优势。
原判。看似寻常的贸易壁垒背后，藏着巴西保护本土产业的焦虑、全球供应链重构的暗涌，以及中国制造业突围的艰难棋局。
巴西的关税计算方式堪称“精准打击”。以一台出厂价100美元的中国车载扬声器为例，叠加78.3%关税后到岸价飙升至178.3美元，比巴西本土品牌贵出近一倍。
更致命的是，巴西海关对“原产地规则”层层加码——要求扬声器芯片必须使用南美矿产提炼的稀土，而全球80%的稀土精炼产能掌握在中国手中。这种“间接关税”让中国产品彻底失去价格优势。
巴西本土企业ASK do Brasil的财报显示，2024年其市场份额从12%提升至27%，但净利润率反而从15%跌至9%。
背后真相是：为抵消关税成本，巴西车企被迫接受其高价供应，导致整车成本增加2300雷亚尔（约460美元）。圣保罗汽车经销商卡洛斯·席尔瓦透露：“现在卖一辆装中国扬声器的车，利润还不够给销售发提成。”
巴西此次行动暗藏技术卡位。2024年修订的《工业产品技术标准法》新增37项声学设备认证条款，其中9项直接针对中国产品。
比如要求扬声器在-20℃至50℃环境下连续工作500小时无故障，而巴西本土企业同类产品仅通过-10℃至40℃测试。这种“量身定制”的标准，让中国厂商不得不重新设计产品线。
巴西政府的操作充满矛盾。一边对中国扬声器加税，一边加大采购中国新能源车。2025年前11月，比亚迪在巴西卖出12.6万辆电动车，占其总销量的38%。
这些车的音响系统90%来自中国，巴西海关却以“整车本土化率超60%”为由豁免关税。这种“选择性执法”暴露其真实意图：既要吃中国制造的红利，又要保住本土企业饭碗。
历史教训值得警惕。2019年巴西对中国光伏组件加征关税后，中国厂商转而向阿根廷出口，再通过陆路运至巴西。结果巴西光伏装机量两年内暴跌42%，电价上涨37%。
如今在扬声器领域重演这一幕，巴西消费者将成为最终买单者。圣保罗大学经济学教授路易斯·费尔南多警告：“抬高汽车配件成本，等于给整个制造业戴镣铐。”
中国车企的应对策略值得玩味。奇瑞在巴西工厂投产音响生产线，用本地组装规避关税；长城汽车则与哈曼国际合作开发定制化产品。
但这些“本土化”操作成本高昂——奇瑞巴西工厂的产能利用率仅65%，因为每生产一套音响要支付巴西工人3倍于中国的时薪。
巴西的战术正在向高科技领域蔓延。2025年10月，巴西对中国产汽车芯片启动反倾销调查，指控中国企业“以低于成本价倾销”。
调查对象包括兆易创新、韦尔股份等龙头企业，涉及金额超50亿美元。这种“由下游向上游蔓延”的贸易战模式，与当年美国打压华为的手段如出一辙。
但中国企业的反击同样犀利。大疆创新在巴西推出“无人机+汽车音响”套装，用飞行表演吸引消费者，间接推广自有品牌音响。
这种“跨界捆绑”策略，让巴西本土品牌的市场份额在三个月内缩水8%。巴西科技部长马科斯·庞特斯私下承认：“我们可能打错了算盘。”
这场贸易战的本质是标准话语权争夺。巴西正推动“南美汽车音响联盟”，试图联合阿根廷、智利制定区域技术标准。一旦成型，中国产品进入南美将面临更高壁垒。
但中国也在布局反制——2025年金砖国家新开发银行批准100亿美元贷款，专项支持成员国建设自主认证体系。
在圣保罗汽车展上，一对矛盾现象正在上演：中国厂商的展台挤满采购商，巴西本土企业的展区却门可罗雀。
这种反差印证了经济学家的判断：“当关税成为常态，市场最终会选择效率更高的生产者。”巴西汽车工业协会数据显示，2025年前三季度，使用中国零部件的车型故障率比本土产品低41%，维修成本节省27%。
从光伏到芯片，从钢铁到音响，巴西的贸易保护主义正在制造多输局面。中国厂商失去市场，巴西消费者承担高价，全球供应链被迫重构。
历史经验表明，任何试图用关税阻挡技术进步的行为，最终只会让本国产业停滞不前。
正如里约热内卢港的码头工人卡洛斯所说：“十年前我们为装满中国货的集装箱欢呼，现在却要为这些箱子支付更多关税。”这场没有硝烟的战争提醒我们：在全球化的退潮中，只有坚持创新与合作，才能避免被逆流吞没。
2025年12月5日，巴西外贸委员会宣布，对原产于中国的车载扬声器维持征收高达78.3%的反倾销税，措施有效期长达五年。这一决定意味着中国相关产品在巴西市场的价格优势将几乎归零。
巴西外贸委员会12月5日的反倾销公告，给中国车载扬声器企业泼了盆冷水！78.3%的税率、五年有效期，直接抹平价格优势。
原判。看似寻常的贸易壁垒背后，藏着巴西保护本土产业的焦虑、全球供应链重构的暗涌，以及中国制造业突围的艰难棋局。
巴西的关税计算方式堪称“精准打击”。以一台出厂价100美元的中国车载扬声器为例，叠加78.3%关税后到岸价飙升至178.3美元，比巴西本土品牌贵出近一倍。
更致命的是，巴西海关对“原产地规则”层层加码——要求扬声器芯片必须使用南美矿产提炼的稀土，而全球80%的稀土精炼产能掌握在中国手中。这种“间接关税”让中国产品彻底失去价格优势。
巴西本土企业ASK do Brasil的财报显示，2024年其市场份额从12%提升至27%，但净利润率反而从15%跌至9%。
背后真相是：为抵消关税成本，巴西车企被迫接受其高价供应，导致整车成本增加2300雷亚尔（约460美元）。圣保罗汽车经销商卡洛斯·席尔瓦透露：“现在卖一辆装中国扬声器的车，利润还不够给销售发提成。”
巴西此次行动暗藏技术卡位。2024年修订的《工业产品技术标准法》新增37项声学设备认证条款，其中9项直接针对中国产品。
比如要求扬声器在-20℃至50℃环境下连续工作500小时无故障，而巴西本土企业同类产品仅通过-10℃至40℃测试。这种“量身定制”的标准，让中国厂商不得不重新设计产品线。
巴西政府的操作充满矛盾。一边对中国扬声器加税，一边加大采购中国新能源车。2025年前11月，比亚迪在巴西卖出12.6万辆电动车，占其总销量的38%。
这些车的音响系统90%来自中国，巴西海关却以“整车本土化率超60%”为由豁免关税。这种“选择性执法”暴露其真实意图：既要吃中国制造的红利，又要保住本土企业饭碗。
历史教训值得警惕。2019年巴西对中国光伏组件加征关税后，中国厂商转而向阿根廷出口，再通过陆路运至巴西。结果巴西光伏装机量两年内暴跌42%，电价上涨37%。
如今在扬声器领域重演这一幕，巴西消费者将成为最终买单者。圣保罗大学经济学教授路易斯·费尔南多警告：“抬高汽车配件成本，等于给整个制造业戴镣铐。”
中国车企的应对策略值得玩味。奇瑞在巴西工厂投产音响生产线，用本地组装规避关税；长城汽车则与哈曼国际合作开发定制化产品。
但这些“本土化”操作成本高昂——奇瑞巴西工厂的产能利用率仅65%，因为每生产一套音响要支付巴西工人3倍于中国的时薪。
巴西的战术正在向高科技领域蔓延。2025年10月，巴西对中国产汽车芯片启动反倾销调查，指控中国企业“以低于成本价倾销”。
调查对象包括兆易创新、韦尔股份等龙头企业，涉及金额超50亿美元。这种“由下游向上游蔓延”的贸易战模式，与当年美国打压华为的手段如出一辙。
但中国企业的反击同样犀利。大疆创新在巴西推出“无人机+汽车音响”套装，用飞行表演吸引消费者，间接推广自有品牌音响。
这种“跨界捆绑”策略，让巴西本土品牌的市场份额在三个月内缩水8%。巴西科技部长马科斯·庞特斯私下承认：“我们可能打错了算盘。”
这场贸易战的本质是标准话语权争夺。巴西正推动“南美汽车音响联盟”，试图联合阿根廷、智利制定区域技术标准。一旦成型，中国产品进入南美将面临更高壁垒。
但中国也在布局反制——2025年金砖国家新开发银行批准100亿美元贷款，专项支持成员国建设自主认证体系。
在圣保罗汽车展上，一对矛盾现象正在上演：中国厂商的展台挤满采购商，巴西本土企业的展区却门可罗雀。
这种反差印证了经济学家的判断：“当关税成为常态，市场最终会选择效率更高的生产者。”巴西汽车工业协会数据显示，2025年前三季度，使用中国零部件的车型故障率比本土产品低41%，维修成本节省27%。
从光伏到芯片，从钢铁到音响，巴西的贸易保护主义正在制造多输局面。中国厂商失去市场，巴西消费者承担高价，全球供应链被迫重构。
历史经验表明，任何试图用关税阻挡技术进步的行为，最终只会让本国产业停滞不前。
正如里约热内卢港的码头工人卡洛斯所说：“十年前我们为装满中国货的集装箱欢呼，现在却要为这些箱子支付更多关税。”这场没有硝烟的战争提醒我们：在全球化的退潮中，只有坚持创新与合作，才能避免被逆流吞没。
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What will the market look like next Monday? Here are my thoughts:
Due to the significant rise in the A-shares market yesterday, both the ChiNext Index and the Shenzhen Component Index surged, and the market closed with a medium bullish candlestick. At that time, over 4,300 stocks in both markets closed higher, and the trading volume significantly increased compared to last Thursday by over 170 billion. It's evident that the three major indices have entered a new round of upward movement. With several positive developments over the weekend (such as: the China Securities Regulatory Commission strengthening information disclosure supervision, standardizing mergers and acquisitions, and enhancing investor protection), although not major positives, I believe there is still a high possibility of another medium bullish candlestick after a gap up.
The specific trend is shown in the chart below.
A disclaimer: The above is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The stock market carries risks, and investment needs to be cautious.
Due to the significant rise in the A-shares market yesterday, both the ChiNext Index and the Shenzhen Component Index surged, and the market closed with a medium bullish candlestick. At that time, over 4,300 stocks in both markets closed higher, and the trading volume significantly increased compared to last Thursday by over 170 billion. It's evident that the three major indices have entered a new round of upward movement. With several positive developments over the weekend (such as: the China Securities Regulatory Commission strengthening information disclosure supervision, standardizing mergers and acquisitions, and enhancing investor protection), although not major positives, I believe there is still a high possibility of another medium bullish candlestick after a gap up.
The specific trend is shown in the chart below.
A disclaimer: The above is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The stock market carries risks, and investment needs to be cautious.
See original
The news of the sudden explosion of the Malaysia Airlines MH370 case, which has been missing for more than 11 years, has just been officially announced by Malaysia to restart the search for the wreckage on December 30.
In simple terms, this shocking news that has caused a stir across the internet is essentially a ray of hope for the families of the MH370 passengers who have waited nearly 12 years, as the Malaysian government has officially confirmed the restart of the wreckage search on December 30. This long pursuit of truth that has spanned over a decade is finally set to embark on a new chapter.
Rewind to the early hours of March 8, 2014, when Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur International Airport bound for Beijing, carrying 239 vibrant lives.
At 1:19 AM, the crew made the last communication with the Kuala Lumpur control center, saying "Good night, Malaysia 370," after which the transponder of the Boeing 777 was manually turned off, and it vanished from the radar screens.
Military radar data indicated that it did not continue north towards Beijing, but instead made a sudden right turn and flew west over the Malay Peninsula, entering the Strait of Malacca, passing through multiple navigation points before finally heading south into the deep Indian Ocean.
What is even more puzzling is that at least within 5 hours after it went missing, the satellite data unit on the plane intermittently communicated with the satellites of the International Maritime Satellite Organization, and these intermittent signals became crucial clues in the search for it.
On March 24, 2014, then Malaysian Prime Minister Najib announced based on satellite data analysis that flight MH370 "ended in" the southern Indian Ocean, but this conclusion was initially met with skepticism due to the lack of physical evidence.
An unprecedented multinational joint search was launched immediately, with 25 countries sending 160 ships/aircraft to participate, including 13 aircraft and 19 vessels from China.
The initial search and rescue operations were conducted in the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca, quickly focusing on a vast arc-shaped area in the southern Indian Ocean defined by satellite "handshake" signals, covering an area as large as 1.12 million square kilometers, equivalent to the entire Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
The search efforts shifted from the surface of the sea to the seabed, where the average depth exceeds 3000 meters, with some trenches reaching depths of 6000 meters; the seabed terrain is complex, filled with seamounts and canyons, making the search as difficult as finding a dropped needle with a flashlight in a pitch-black gymnasium.
The search team deployed the most advanced underwater autonomous vehicles, deep-sea scanning equipment, and side-scan sonar, but by January 2017, when the official search was called off, the main wreckage was still nowhere to be found.
The only concrete clues came from fragments washed ashore by ocean currents. On July 29, 2015, a piece of aircraft wing debris found on the beach of Réunion Island was confirmed to "strongly suggest" it came from MH370.
In the following years, dozens of fragments were found in Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa, and other locations, silently proving that MH370 had disintegrated somewhere in the southern Indian Ocean, but the main wreckage remained buried deep underwater.
In January 2018, the Malaysian government collaborated with the company "Ocean Infinity" for the first time to restart the search under a "no find, no fee" model, scanning over 112,000 square kilometers of seabed within 90 days, ultimately resulting in failure.
In July of the same year, Malaysia released a 495-page final investigation report, pointing out that "the aircraft control devices may have been deliberately manipulated," but "could not confirm who should be held responsible," and there were also "no suspicious aspects" regarding the captain and co-pilot's backgrounds, seemingly closing the door to the truth.
However, the desire for the truth has never ceased, especially for the families of the 154 Chinese passengers. Over the past decade, many have refused to reconcile, insisting on "better no compensation than the truth," and their voices have become an important force driving the search's restart.
A turning point appeared in 2024, when the underwater detection company "Ocean Infinity" submitted a search plan based on new data analysis to the Malaysian government after continued research. The company's CEO, Oliver Plunkett, stated that he is "now confident" about finding the aircraft.
In December 2024, Malaysia agreed in principle to restart the search; in March 2025, the final agreement was approved, with Malaysia's Transport Minister Loke Siew Fook stating that the government assessed the plan to be "credible," fulfilling a commitment to the passengers' families.
According to the service agreement signed by both parties on March 25, the new search operation will be conducted intermittently over a total duration of 55 days, focusing on a new area of 15,000 square kilometers in the southern Indian Ocean, which is only about 13.4% of the area searched in 2018.
Technological upgrades are also in place, with plans to deploy a fleet equipped with the latest autonomous underwater vehicles, and there may even be a "dual AUV configuration" for collaborative searching, significantly enhancing detection efficiency and accuracy.
The cooperative model continues with the "no find, no fee" commercial risk model, where "Ocean Infinity" will only receive a $70 million reward if substantial wreckage is successfully found, and no fees will be required if nothing is found.
Although the restart brings new hope, the core mystery surrounding MH370 remains unsolved. Over the past decade, various speculations have emerged, but they have all been weakened or denied to varying degrees by evidence or investigations.
The hijacking theory lacks motive and extortion information, and the plane did not fly to any available landing locations; the fire/malfunction theory is difficult to explain the complex prolonged manual maneuvering; the captain's responsibility theory also lacks concrete evidence to support it.
As the investigation report repeatedly emphasizes, the final answer may rely solely on finding the main wreckage of the aircraft, especially the black box that records the last moments of voice and data, which is also the core goal of this search.
A statement from a family member of a missing passenger represents the voice of all: "At least taking this step is commendable; I hope we can find it this time." In this simple statement lies 12 years of anticipation and torment.
Beneath the waves of the southern Indian Ocean lies the deepest mystery in modern aviation history. The deep-sea expedition set to begin on December 30, 2025, is not only a search for steel wreckage but also a quest to retrieve the truth washed away by time.
This pursuit that spans 12 years has long surpassed the simple search for wreckage; it is humanity's unyielding exploration of the unknown abyss, the difficult fulfillment of the promise of "never giving up," and an opportunity for the 239 victims' families to end their tragedy and find solace.
In simple terms, this shocking news that has caused a stir across the internet is essentially a ray of hope for the families of the MH370 passengers who have waited nearly 12 years, as the Malaysian government has officially confirmed the restart of the wreckage search on December 30. This long pursuit of truth that has spanned over a decade is finally set to embark on a new chapter.
Rewind to the early hours of March 8, 2014, when Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur International Airport bound for Beijing, carrying 239 vibrant lives.
At 1:19 AM, the crew made the last communication with the Kuala Lumpur control center, saying "Good night, Malaysia 370," after which the transponder of the Boeing 777 was manually turned off, and it vanished from the radar screens.
Military radar data indicated that it did not continue north towards Beijing, but instead made a sudden right turn and flew west over the Malay Peninsula, entering the Strait of Malacca, passing through multiple navigation points before finally heading south into the deep Indian Ocean.
What is even more puzzling is that at least within 5 hours after it went missing, the satellite data unit on the plane intermittently communicated with the satellites of the International Maritime Satellite Organization, and these intermittent signals became crucial clues in the search for it.
On March 24, 2014, then Malaysian Prime Minister Najib announced based on satellite data analysis that flight MH370 "ended in" the southern Indian Ocean, but this conclusion was initially met with skepticism due to the lack of physical evidence.
An unprecedented multinational joint search was launched immediately, with 25 countries sending 160 ships/aircraft to participate, including 13 aircraft and 19 vessels from China.
The initial search and rescue operations were conducted in the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca, quickly focusing on a vast arc-shaped area in the southern Indian Ocean defined by satellite "handshake" signals, covering an area as large as 1.12 million square kilometers, equivalent to the entire Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
The search efforts shifted from the surface of the sea to the seabed, where the average depth exceeds 3000 meters, with some trenches reaching depths of 6000 meters; the seabed terrain is complex, filled with seamounts and canyons, making the search as difficult as finding a dropped needle with a flashlight in a pitch-black gymnasium.
The search team deployed the most advanced underwater autonomous vehicles, deep-sea scanning equipment, and side-scan sonar, but by January 2017, when the official search was called off, the main wreckage was still nowhere to be found.
The only concrete clues came from fragments washed ashore by ocean currents. On July 29, 2015, a piece of aircraft wing debris found on the beach of Réunion Island was confirmed to "strongly suggest" it came from MH370.
In the following years, dozens of fragments were found in Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa, and other locations, silently proving that MH370 had disintegrated somewhere in the southern Indian Ocean, but the main wreckage remained buried deep underwater.
In January 2018, the Malaysian government collaborated with the company "Ocean Infinity" for the first time to restart the search under a "no find, no fee" model, scanning over 112,000 square kilometers of seabed within 90 days, ultimately resulting in failure.
In July of the same year, Malaysia released a 495-page final investigation report, pointing out that "the aircraft control devices may have been deliberately manipulated," but "could not confirm who should be held responsible," and there were also "no suspicious aspects" regarding the captain and co-pilot's backgrounds, seemingly closing the door to the truth.
However, the desire for the truth has never ceased, especially for the families of the 154 Chinese passengers. Over the past decade, many have refused to reconcile, insisting on "better no compensation than the truth," and their voices have become an important force driving the search's restart.
A turning point appeared in 2024, when the underwater detection company "Ocean Infinity" submitted a search plan based on new data analysis to the Malaysian government after continued research. The company's CEO, Oliver Plunkett, stated that he is "now confident" about finding the aircraft.
In December 2024, Malaysia agreed in principle to restart the search; in March 2025, the final agreement was approved, with Malaysia's Transport Minister Loke Siew Fook stating that the government assessed the plan to be "credible," fulfilling a commitment to the passengers' families.
According to the service agreement signed by both parties on March 25, the new search operation will be conducted intermittently over a total duration of 55 days, focusing on a new area of 15,000 square kilometers in the southern Indian Ocean, which is only about 13.4% of the area searched in 2018.
Technological upgrades are also in place, with plans to deploy a fleet equipped with the latest autonomous underwater vehicles, and there may even be a "dual AUV configuration" for collaborative searching, significantly enhancing detection efficiency and accuracy.
The cooperative model continues with the "no find, no fee" commercial risk model, where "Ocean Infinity" will only receive a $70 million reward if substantial wreckage is successfully found, and no fees will be required if nothing is found.
Although the restart brings new hope, the core mystery surrounding MH370 remains unsolved. Over the past decade, various speculations have emerged, but they have all been weakened or denied to varying degrees by evidence or investigations.
The hijacking theory lacks motive and extortion information, and the plane did not fly to any available landing locations; the fire/malfunction theory is difficult to explain the complex prolonged manual maneuvering; the captain's responsibility theory also lacks concrete evidence to support it.
As the investigation report repeatedly emphasizes, the final answer may rely solely on finding the main wreckage of the aircraft, especially the black box that records the last moments of voice and data, which is also the core goal of this search.
A statement from a family member of a missing passenger represents the voice of all: "At least taking this step is commendable; I hope we can find it this time." In this simple statement lies 12 years of anticipation and torment.
Beneath the waves of the southern Indian Ocean lies the deepest mystery in modern aviation history. The deep-sea expedition set to begin on December 30, 2025, is not only a search for steel wreckage but also a quest to retrieve the truth washed away by time.
This pursuit that spans 12 years has long surpassed the simple search for wreckage; it is humanity's unyielding exploration of the unknown abyss, the difficult fulfillment of the promise of "never giving up," and an opportunity for the 239 victims' families to end their tragedy and find solace.
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周末复盘：航天发展、龙洲股份、航天机电、航天动力、顺灏股份隔日走势的一些看法！
1、航天发展
毫无疑问航发已经成为了当前市场的总龙头，它的地位就跟当初平潭二波时的地位是相当的，在市场整体低迷的情况下，多数资金选择了继续抱团商业航天方向，而航发毫无疑问是最具辨识度的那个，再加上小群加入的号召力，使得航发这一波的表现尤为强势，周五尾盘最终走出了强势封板的形态！
盘后的龙虎榜江苏路加入战场，小群继续做T引导，两个机构也是加仓引导，卖盘除了西大街止盈离场外，并没有出现其他游资的抛盘，从航发现阶段的筹码结构看，小群持仓超3亿，江苏路也是超2.5亿，新闸路近2亿，桑田路超1亿，多数活跃游资选择了继续锁仓，说明资金整体还是非常看好航发的，再加上商业航天方向整体持续性非常好，所以航发继续趋势上行的概率很大，它尾盘的涨停更像是要走高潮表现，所以对于航发来说，隔日继续冲高问题不大，怕就怕这个位置开始涨停，整个商业航天会不会高潮后集体兑现，所以隔日航发的走势会是整个商业航天的风向标，一旦它出现明显下杀兑现，那么整个板块可能存在整体兑现的风险，毕竟龙头的反馈非常重要！
2、龙洲股份
如果说航发是商业航天趋势龙头，龙洲就是短线的情绪龙头，周五它是市场最强一字形态，而它的表现也带动了整个商业航天开盘的强势拉升！
龙洲是板块表现最强的个股，三板的身位优势注定了它会是竞价最值得资金抢筹的个股，所以商业航天隔日得分歧有多大，它的表现非常关键，从情绪上看，隔日竞价不开一字就是负反馈，一旦这样的表现，整个商业航天都会被带崩，但是如果商业航天方向整体分歧比较大，它或许也会出现炸板放量，就看市场的承接情况了，如果市场承接强，按照短线去弱留强的思路，它可能会是资金最愿意去接力的，反之，一旦它都出现炸板下杀无承接，那么整个商业航天就可能会是大面积的兑现了！
3、航天机电
机电本来是商业航天中唯一换手高标，本来是非常值得期待的，但是周五的上板确实来的太晚，有点被动上板的意思，这样的话，其实它的预期就不会有那么高了！
从形态上看，它有点类似AI手机方向3进4的福蓉，都是因为澄清无相关业务导致的资金分歧非常大，机电周五的表现也确实如此，早盘资金明显封板不坚决，午后随着板块强势回流出现资金做多封板，虽然它涨停时间要强于动力和航发，但是没有这两只个股的强势拉升做多，就很难有资金去承接封板机电！
所以，综上所述，机电虽然是板块最高标之一，但是相比于龙洲是没有半点优势的，它隔日能否走出持续性更多的取决于板块的整体强度，如果板块不行，它竞价也没强势表现的情况下，这只个股就真的要去找合适的卖点了，从情绪上看，它想要PK掉龙洲成为商业航天情绪龙头的概率非常低，除非它竞价就有非常强势的超预期表现！
4、航天动力
午后商业航天的高潮明显是航天三兄弟带动的，而动力在地天失败后，连续两天都是明显正反馈，而跟随机电封板的表现也是超强的，最终走出了一个新高的首板形态！
盘后的龙虎榜买盘岳阳大道、成都系、华林北京分和江苏路买入都超过7千万，卖盘新闸路和量化止盈离场，这是一个非常不错的资金换手，动力从地天那天开始，资金是持续换手的，连续3个交易日的实际换手都接近50%，这样的表现是非常活跃的，所以它很明显是在走成一个类似航发的后排，而且它这一轮趋势上行的形态非常漂亮，它首个涨停板是航发第一波最后一个板，而第二天航发跌停，它也受到影响冲高回落，但是很快走出反包形态，之后相比于航发的短暂横盘，它是明显的趋势上行的，所以动力这只个股可以看成航发的伴生龙，只要航发的趋势还在，它跟随走出趋势的概率是非常大的！
5、顺灏股份
果然每个成为过商业航天短暂最高标的个股都是被资金眷顾的，从航发到雷科，再到近期的通宇和顺灏，除了通宇外，其余个股断板后第二天都出现了反包，通宇虽然没有反包，但是连续两天都是有一定修复的，这就是市场主线的魅力，而顺灏竞价的弱转强非常漂亮，再加上开盘整个商业航天修复明显，所以它走出了非常强势的直线拉升 缩量涨停，而它的强势表现对于整个板块的带动作用非常明显！
顺灏走出的4+1非常亮眼，但是这样的缩量涨停其实隐忧非常大，隔日不能开出一字板的话，抛压会非常大，如果商业航天出现大分歧，它甚至会直接高开兑现，所以对于这只个股的接力，千万不要看到竞价开的好就去挂单，一旦这么做，是很可能挂到山顶上的，再加上4+1的形态如果继续连板，很快就会面临严重异动，现阶段的市场海王在周五去挑战了，它能不能全身而退非常重要，如果它能继续强势，对于短线情绪会带动明显，那么只要商业航天不差，顺灏出现资金去强势顶板的概率不低，反之，一旦海王隔日竞价负反馈明显，顺灏就要防止走出天地杀的表现，就算商业航天再强势，接力也要足够谨慎！
文中的内容仅为分享和交流，不作为实际操作建议！
1、航天发展
毫无疑问航发已经成为了当前市场的总龙头，它的地位就跟当初平潭二波时的地位是相当的，在市场整体低迷的情况下，多数资金选择了继续抱团商业航天方向，而航发毫无疑问是最具辨识度的那个，再加上小群加入的号召力，使得航发这一波的表现尤为强势，周五尾盘最终走出了强势封板的形态！
盘后的龙虎榜江苏路加入战场，小群继续做T引导，两个机构也是加仓引导，卖盘除了西大街止盈离场外，并没有出现其他游资的抛盘，从航发现阶段的筹码结构看，小群持仓超3亿，江苏路也是超2.5亿，新闸路近2亿，桑田路超1亿，多数活跃游资选择了继续锁仓，说明资金整体还是非常看好航发的，再加上商业航天方向整体持续性非常好，所以航发继续趋势上行的概率很大，它尾盘的涨停更像是要走高潮表现，所以对于航发来说，隔日继续冲高问题不大，怕就怕这个位置开始涨停，整个商业航天会不会高潮后集体兑现，所以隔日航发的走势会是整个商业航天的风向标，一旦它出现明显下杀兑现，那么整个板块可能存在整体兑现的风险，毕竟龙头的反馈非常重要！
2、龙洲股份
如果说航发是商业航天趋势龙头，龙洲就是短线的情绪龙头，周五它是市场最强一字形态，而它的表现也带动了整个商业航天开盘的强势拉升！
龙洲是板块表现最强的个股，三板的身位优势注定了它会是竞价最值得资金抢筹的个股，所以商业航天隔日得分歧有多大，它的表现非常关键，从情绪上看，隔日竞价不开一字就是负反馈，一旦这样的表现，整个商业航天都会被带崩，但是如果商业航天方向整体分歧比较大，它或许也会出现炸板放量，就看市场的承接情况了，如果市场承接强，按照短线去弱留强的思路，它可能会是资金最愿意去接力的，反之，一旦它都出现炸板下杀无承接，那么整个商业航天就可能会是大面积的兑现了！
3、航天机电
机电本来是商业航天中唯一换手高标，本来是非常值得期待的，但是周五的上板确实来的太晚，有点被动上板的意思，这样的话，其实它的预期就不会有那么高了！
从形态上看，它有点类似AI手机方向3进4的福蓉，都是因为澄清无相关业务导致的资金分歧非常大，机电周五的表现也确实如此，早盘资金明显封板不坚决，午后随着板块强势回流出现资金做多封板，虽然它涨停时间要强于动力和航发，但是没有这两只个股的强势拉升做多，就很难有资金去承接封板机电！
所以，综上所述，机电虽然是板块最高标之一，但是相比于龙洲是没有半点优势的，它隔日能否走出持续性更多的取决于板块的整体强度，如果板块不行，它竞价也没强势表现的情况下，这只个股就真的要去找合适的卖点了，从情绪上看，它想要PK掉龙洲成为商业航天情绪龙头的概率非常低，除非它竞价就有非常强势的超预期表现！
4、航天动力
午后商业航天的高潮明显是航天三兄弟带动的，而动力在地天失败后，连续两天都是明显正反馈，而跟随机电封板的表现也是超强的，最终走出了一个新高的首板形态！
盘后的龙虎榜买盘岳阳大道、成都系、华林北京分和江苏路买入都超过7千万，卖盘新闸路和量化止盈离场，这是一个非常不错的资金换手，动力从地天那天开始，资金是持续换手的，连续3个交易日的实际换手都接近50%，这样的表现是非常活跃的，所以它很明显是在走成一个类似航发的后排，而且它这一轮趋势上行的形态非常漂亮，它首个涨停板是航发第一波最后一个板，而第二天航发跌停，它也受到影响冲高回落，但是很快走出反包形态，之后相比于航发的短暂横盘，它是明显的趋势上行的，所以动力这只个股可以看成航发的伴生龙，只要航发的趋势还在，它跟随走出趋势的概率是非常大的！
5、顺灏股份
果然每个成为过商业航天短暂最高标的个股都是被资金眷顾的，从航发到雷科，再到近期的通宇和顺灏，除了通宇外，其余个股断板后第二天都出现了反包，通宇虽然没有反包，但是连续两天都是有一定修复的，这就是市场主线的魅力，而顺灏竞价的弱转强非常漂亮，再加上开盘整个商业航天修复明显，所以它走出了非常强势的直线拉升 缩量涨停，而它的强势表现对于整个板块的带动作用非常明显！
顺灏走出的4+1非常亮眼，但是这样的缩量涨停其实隐忧非常大，隔日不能开出一字板的话，抛压会非常大，如果商业航天出现大分歧，它甚至会直接高开兑现，所以对于这只个股的接力，千万不要看到竞价开的好就去挂单，一旦这么做，是很可能挂到山顶上的，再加上4+1的形态如果继续连板，很快就会面临严重异动，现阶段的市场海王在周五去挑战了，它能不能全身而退非常重要，如果它能继续强势，对于短线情绪会带动明显，那么只要商业航天不差，顺灏出现资金去强势顶板的概率不低，反之，一旦海王隔日竞价负反馈明显，顺灏就要防止走出天地杀的表现，就算商业航天再强势，接力也要足够谨慎！
文中的内容仅为分享和交流，不作为实际操作建议！
See original
U.S. Secretary of State Rubio officially announced on December 3 that after learning of the unsuccessful negotiations between the U.S. and Russia at the Kremlin, he publicly expressed his stance. In an interview with Fox News on December 3, he mentioned that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is about a region with a depth of approximately 30 - 50 kilometers, which is 20% of the territory in Donetsk Oblast still controlled by the Ukrainian army; he also stated, 'If both sides are not ready to achieve peace, the fighting will continue, and the U.S. will not intervene.' This statement sounds like a neutral stance, but a little digging into recent developments reveals that there's more substance to it than diluted whiskey. The U.S. had just sent a special envoy to Moscow to discuss a so-called 'peace plan' for a full five hours, and then turned around and said 'we won't interfere,' a flip-flop so rapid even a Sichuan opera performer would call it professional. First, let's talk about the real situation in the controversial area mentioned by Rubio. According to statistics from the Russian newspaper Izvestia at the end of November, the actual area controlled by the Ukrainian army in Donetsk Oblast is actually 25%, which is a full five percentage points more than the 20% that Rubio mentioned. Among this, the Kramatorsk area accounts for 73.3% of the territory under Ukrainian control, serving as a core logistics hub for the Ukrainian army in Eastern Ukraine. The U.S. cannot possibly be unaware of this crucial data; Rubio's deliberate downplaying of the percentage seems more like a setup for subsequent actions. After all, the dense military facilities and logistics supplies in this area are precisely the focus of U.S. aid, so how could they really ignore it? Just half a month before Rubio's statement, the U.S. State Department had just approved a $105 million maintenance package for the 'Patriot' air defense system, which not only includes upgrades to launch systems but also core spare parts and technical training, this combination can directly enhance the interception efficiency of the Ukrainian air defense system by 40%. This is hardly 'non-intervention', it's clearly precision military support. Interestingly, as soon as this military sale news came out, the stock prices of American defense companies like Lockheed Martin skyrocketed, demonstrating that capital's instincts never lie. Besides the overt military sales, the U.S. is also playing a more covert 'resource binding' game. Since the Trump administration took office, the U.S. has provided more than $180 billion in aid to Ukraine, which has quietly been packaged as 'debt', demanding that Ukraine repay with strategic resources such as rare earths, uranium, and lithium. The draft agreement even explicitly states that 66% of the income from resource development must be injected into funds controlled by the U.S. The Zelensky government initially firmly opposed this 'selling national resources' approach, but under the pressure of U.S. military aid suspension, it ultimately had to compromise, granting the U.S. priority in new mineral extraction rights and a 50% share of resource income. This 'aid for resources' model can be regarded as a creation of modern warfare; it not only activates the domestic military-industrial complex through arms sales but also secures Ukraine's strategic resources using the opportunity of war, achieving two goals with one move. Looking back at the so-called 'peace negotiations', during the five hours that the U.S. representative was in Moscow, they didn't mention any substantive ceasefire proposals, but instead emphasized that 'Russia must accept Ukraine's territorial integrity'. Such negotiations with preconditions were doomed to failure from the start. Ironically, in July, the U.S. clearly stated in the UN Security Council that 'there is no military solution', even giving Putin a 50-day ultimatum for peace, only to turn around and send more weapons and funds into the Ukrainian battlefield. This kind of inconsistent behavior has become a routine operation for the U.S. Rubio's so-called 'non-intervention' is essentially a trap of rhetoric. The U.S. has never truly left the chessboard of the Russia-Ukraine conflict; they have just found a more covert way to participate deeply. They are simultaneously extracting actual benefits through arms sales and resource agreements while using 'neutral' statements to shirk responsibility, treating Ukraine as a pawn to contain Russia. The Ukrainian people have long suffered from this kind of 'aid', with 83% explicitly opposing the sale of national resources, and Zelensky's approval rating has therefore plummeted. However, under U.S. pressure, these voices hardly make it to the international stage. The current situation is clear; the U.S.'s so-called 'non-intervention' is merely a fig leaf. As long as they can weaken Russia through the Russia-Ukraine conflict while reaping strategic resources and economic benefits, the U.S. will not truly stop intervening. Rubio's statement seems more like a posture, calming domestic voices wishing for less involvement while leaving room for subsequent aid actions. There are no real bystanders in this conflict; every time the U.S. claims 'neutrality', it conceals carefully calculated geopolitical games and exchanges of interests. Rubio's words can be listened to, but do not take them seriously; after all, in the face of interests, the so-called 'non-intervention' promises are worth even less than bread nearing its expiration date in a supermarket. Next, it is highly likely that the U.S. will continue this operation of 'openly halting while secretly assisting', shouting peace slogans while sending more weapons and resource agreements to Ukraine. Such contradictory practices will only prolong the conflict, ultimately causing suffering for the ordinary people of both countries. The international community has long seen through the U.S.'s tactics, but no one is willing to shatter this layer of paper. Rubio's statement is like a stone thrown into a lake; the ripples will soon dissipate, but the undercurrents at the bottom have never stopped flowing.
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Satellite images of the upgraded Type 22 missile boat have been revealed, showing the removal of the original eight YJ-83 anti-ship missile launchers and initiating a functional transformation!
The modification of the Type 22 missile boat signifies that it is no longer solely responsible for anti-ship operations, but is beginning to undertake more diverse missions. This seemingly small change reflects a broader strategic upgrade of the Chinese Navy.
From the perspective of naval development, when the Type 22 missile boat first appeared, the primary mission of the Chinese Navy was to defend its homeland. At that time, the YJ-83 missiles it carried were the most cost-effective option.
However, things are different now. With the commissioning of large vessels like the Type 055 destroyer and the Fujian aircraft carrier, the Navy is expanding into the far seas to defend more distant waters. As a result, the performance of the YJ-83 missile is becoming somewhat outdated.
Removing the anti-ship missiles from the Type 22, freeing up deck space, transforms it from a platform unsuitable for far-sea operations into a "mobile outpost" capable of flexible shore support, forming a complementary "long-range attack, close-range defense" structure with the far-sea fleet.
From a combat system perspective, the upgraded Type 22 missile boats have become more integrated into the combat system. The newly added decks have proven invaluable, capable of carrying unmanned helicopters to assist in submarine searches and establishing reconnaissance networks. If equipped with laser weapons and air defense systems, they can fill the gaps in close-range defense for larger warships.
Furthermore, the retained HN-900 tactical data link on the boats is particularly powerful, enabling them to maintain constant communication with early warning aircraft and destroyers. This transforms these small 250-ton boats into "scouts" and "defenders" within the combat system, completely moving beyond the era of lone-wolf operations and achieving a remarkable shift towards team-based warfare.
The transformation of the Type 22 missile boats demonstrates the mature leap of the Chinese Navy from "equipment-driven" to "demand-driven" operations. While the far-sea fleet aims for the deep blue sea, these transformed "maritime all-rounders" are building the last line of defense for near-shore operations.
The modification of the Type 22 missile boat signifies that it is no longer solely responsible for anti-ship operations, but is beginning to undertake more diverse missions. This seemingly small change reflects a broader strategic upgrade of the Chinese Navy.
From the perspective of naval development, when the Type 22 missile boat first appeared, the primary mission of the Chinese Navy was to defend its homeland. At that time, the YJ-83 missiles it carried were the most cost-effective option.
However, things are different now. With the commissioning of large vessels like the Type 055 destroyer and the Fujian aircraft carrier, the Navy is expanding into the far seas to defend more distant waters. As a result, the performance of the YJ-83 missile is becoming somewhat outdated.
Removing the anti-ship missiles from the Type 22, freeing up deck space, transforms it from a platform unsuitable for far-sea operations into a "mobile outpost" capable of flexible shore support, forming a complementary "long-range attack, close-range defense" structure with the far-sea fleet.
From a combat system perspective, the upgraded Type 22 missile boats have become more integrated into the combat system. The newly added decks have proven invaluable, capable of carrying unmanned helicopters to assist in submarine searches and establishing reconnaissance networks. If equipped with laser weapons and air defense systems, they can fill the gaps in close-range defense for larger warships.
Furthermore, the retained HN-900 tactical data link on the boats is particularly powerful, enabling them to maintain constant communication with early warning aircraft and destroyers. This transforms these small 250-ton boats into "scouts" and "defenders" within the combat system, completely moving beyond the era of lone-wolf operations and achieving a remarkable shift towards team-based warfare.
The transformation of the Type 22 missile boats demonstrates the mature leap of the Chinese Navy from "equipment-driven" to "demand-driven" operations. While the far-sea fleet aims for the deep blue sea, these transformed "maritime all-rounders" are building the last line of defense for near-shore operations.
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日本万万没想到，高市的愚蠢行为居然帮中国解决了两大问题。第一个，帮所有国人再次唤醒了对历史的记忆；第二个，日本让我们合情，合理，合法，且在有充分的理由下，向全世界展示了全体国人的意志力，以及我国的实力。
当高市早苗公然参拜靖国神社时，中国互联网瞬间沸腾了。社交媒体上关于南京大屠杀的历史照片被疯狂转发，年轻一代自发开始搜集整理二战期间日本侵华的罪证。
这种集体记忆的唤醒不是官方主导的宣传活动，而是民间自发的情感爆发。许多90后、00后第一次如此真切地感受到历史的重量，他们开始主动查阅资料，询问祖辈当年的经历。
更令人意外的是，这种历史记忆的复苏跨越了年龄界限。白发苍苍的老者颤巍巍地拿出珍藏多年的家书，讲述逃难时的艰辛；
中年父母带着孩子参观抗战纪念馆，用最朴实的语言解释为何要铭记历史。整个社会形成了一种奇妙的共鸣，不同代际的中国人通过这段共同的历史记忆达成了情感上的连接。
国际社会也开始重新审视这段历史。西方媒体原本对靖国神社问题知之甚少，但在中国的强烈反应下，他们不得不进行深入报道。
许多外国记者惊讶地发现，这不仅仅是一个外交争端，而是涉及数千万遇难者的历史伤痛。中国的立场因此获得了更广泛的理解与同情。
高市早苗的行为还给了中国一个展示现代实力的绝佳舞台。当日本政客试图挑战历史底线时，中国没有停留在口头抗议，而是用实际行动证明了自己的综合国力。海军舰艇在相关海域的常态化巡航，向世界展示了中国维护核心利益的决心与能力。
经济领域的反制措施更是让日本感受到了切肤之痛。中国作为日本最大的贸易伙伴，任何贸易限制都会对日本经济造成实质性影响。
这种经济实力转化为外交筹码的过程，让国际社会清楚地看到，中国已经不再是那个只能被动接受不平等条约的弱国。
科技领域的突破性进展同样令人瞩目。在半导体、人工智能等关键领域，中国企业的快速成长打破了西方的技术封锁。
当日本试图跟随美国对中国实施技术限制时，却发现自身在许多领域已经无法与中国脱钩。这种科技实力的提升，为中国在国际博弈中赢得了更多主动权。
文化软实力的提升同样不容忽视。中国影视作品开始系统性地反映抗战历史，这些作品不仅在国内引发共鸣，还通过流媒体平台走向海外。
外国观众通过这些作品，直观地了解了中国人民在战争中的苦难与抗争。这种文化传播比任何外交辞令都更有说服力。
军事现代化成果的展示尤为引人注目。新型航母的下水、隐形战机的列装、高超音速武器的研发，这些尖端装备的公开亮相，让世界看到了中国国防实力的跨越式发展。日本政客的挑衅行为，反而为中国提供了一个展示军事透明度的机会，这种透明本身就是一种威慑。
国际格局的变化也站在中国这边。随着美国全球战略的收缩，亚太地区出现了权力真空。中国通过"一带一路"倡议，与周边国家建立了更紧密的经济联系。日本试图孤立中国的努力，在区域合作的大潮面前显得苍白无力。
国内凝聚力的提升更是显而易见。面对外部挑衅，中国社会表现出了空前的团结。不同阶层、不同地域的中国人，在维护国家尊严这一核心议题上达成了高度共识。这种凝聚力转化为发展动力，推动中国经济在复杂国际环境中保持稳定增长。
教育领域的变革同样值得关注。历史教育在中小学课程中的比重显著增加，年轻一代对国家命运的认识更加深刻。这种教育不是简单的仇恨灌输，而是培养理性思考能力，让学生理解历史与现实之间的联系。
外交智慧的运用也令人印象深刻。中国没有采取激烈的对抗姿态，而是通过多边场合阐明立场，争取国际支持。这种成熟的外交手腕，展现了一个大国应有的风范。日本政客的鲁莽行为，反而凸显了中国外交的稳健与理性。
民间交流的渠道并未完全中断。尽管政治关系紧张，但中日两国的民间团体仍在努力维持对话。这种民间外交的存在，为未来关系的改善保留了可能性。中国展现出的包容态度，赢得了国际社会的尊重。
历史总是充满讽刺。日本政客试图通过挑衅行为转移国内矛盾，却意外地加速了中国民族复兴的进程。这种事与愿违的结果，或许连高市早苗自己都没有预料到。中国抓住这个契机，向世界展示了一个成熟、自信、有担当的大国形象。
当高市早苗公然参拜靖国神社时，中国互联网瞬间沸腾了。社交媒体上关于南京大屠杀的历史照片被疯狂转发，年轻一代自发开始搜集整理二战期间日本侵华的罪证。
这种集体记忆的唤醒不是官方主导的宣传活动，而是民间自发的情感爆发。许多90后、00后第一次如此真切地感受到历史的重量，他们开始主动查阅资料，询问祖辈当年的经历。
更令人意外的是，这种历史记忆的复苏跨越了年龄界限。白发苍苍的老者颤巍巍地拿出珍藏多年的家书，讲述逃难时的艰辛；
中年父母带着孩子参观抗战纪念馆，用最朴实的语言解释为何要铭记历史。整个社会形成了一种奇妙的共鸣，不同代际的中国人通过这段共同的历史记忆达成了情感上的连接。
国际社会也开始重新审视这段历史。西方媒体原本对靖国神社问题知之甚少，但在中国的强烈反应下，他们不得不进行深入报道。
许多外国记者惊讶地发现，这不仅仅是一个外交争端，而是涉及数千万遇难者的历史伤痛。中国的立场因此获得了更广泛的理解与同情。
高市早苗的行为还给了中国一个展示现代实力的绝佳舞台。当日本政客试图挑战历史底线时，中国没有停留在口头抗议，而是用实际行动证明了自己的综合国力。海军舰艇在相关海域的常态化巡航，向世界展示了中国维护核心利益的决心与能力。
经济领域的反制措施更是让日本感受到了切肤之痛。中国作为日本最大的贸易伙伴，任何贸易限制都会对日本经济造成实质性影响。
这种经济实力转化为外交筹码的过程，让国际社会清楚地看到，中国已经不再是那个只能被动接受不平等条约的弱国。
科技领域的突破性进展同样令人瞩目。在半导体、人工智能等关键领域，中国企业的快速成长打破了西方的技术封锁。
当日本试图跟随美国对中国实施技术限制时，却发现自身在许多领域已经无法与中国脱钩。这种科技实力的提升，为中国在国际博弈中赢得了更多主动权。
文化软实力的提升同样不容忽视。中国影视作品开始系统性地反映抗战历史，这些作品不仅在国内引发共鸣，还通过流媒体平台走向海外。
外国观众通过这些作品，直观地了解了中国人民在战争中的苦难与抗争。这种文化传播比任何外交辞令都更有说服力。
军事现代化成果的展示尤为引人注目。新型航母的下水、隐形战机的列装、高超音速武器的研发，这些尖端装备的公开亮相，让世界看到了中国国防实力的跨越式发展。日本政客的挑衅行为，反而为中国提供了一个展示军事透明度的机会，这种透明本身就是一种威慑。
国际格局的变化也站在中国这边。随着美国全球战略的收缩，亚太地区出现了权力真空。中国通过"一带一路"倡议，与周边国家建立了更紧密的经济联系。日本试图孤立中国的努力，在区域合作的大潮面前显得苍白无力。
国内凝聚力的提升更是显而易见。面对外部挑衅，中国社会表现出了空前的团结。不同阶层、不同地域的中国人，在维护国家尊严这一核心议题上达成了高度共识。这种凝聚力转化为发展动力，推动中国经济在复杂国际环境中保持稳定增长。
教育领域的变革同样值得关注。历史教育在中小学课程中的比重显著增加，年轻一代对国家命运的认识更加深刻。这种教育不是简单的仇恨灌输，而是培养理性思考能力，让学生理解历史与现实之间的联系。
外交智慧的运用也令人印象深刻。中国没有采取激烈的对抗姿态，而是通过多边场合阐明立场，争取国际支持。这种成熟的外交手腕，展现了一个大国应有的风范。日本政客的鲁莽行为，反而凸显了中国外交的稳健与理性。
民间交流的渠道并未完全中断。尽管政治关系紧张，但中日两国的民间团体仍在努力维持对话。这种民间外交的存在，为未来关系的改善保留了可能性。中国展现出的包容态度，赢得了国际社会的尊重。
历史总是充满讽刺。日本政客试图通过挑衅行为转移国内矛盾，却意外地加速了中国民族复兴的进程。这种事与愿违的结果，或许连高市早苗自己都没有预料到。中国抓住这个契机，向世界展示了一个成熟、自信、有担当的大国形象。
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American media pointed out: China's aircraft carrier construction speed is very fast, but don't be deceived by China's appearance, as China actually has hidden cards that have not been revealed!
The construction speed of Chinese aircraft carriers is indeed astonishing; the refit of the Liaoning took 7 years, the Shandong took only 2 years from launching to commissioning, and the Fujian started construction in 2018 and will officially be commissioned in 2025, completing the entire process from construction to combat capability in just 7 years, nearly half the time of the 12-year cycle of the U.S. Ford-class carriers. However, this is just the tip of the iceberg; what U.S. media really fears is the systematic hidden cards behind the aircraft carriers.
The world’s unique conventional power electromagnetic catapult technology allows the Fujian's launch preparation time to be only 90 seconds, 10 times faster than steam catapults, with a 30% increase in carrier-based aircraft sortie efficiency, and can accommodate a full spectrum of aircraft types from drones to heavy fighter jets. Coupled with the already deployed J-35 stealth carrier-based aircraft, which has a radar cross-section smaller than a palm, and the KJ-600 early warning aircraft, the operational radius of the carrier strike group is directly increased by 40%.
More crucial is the Dongfeng missile system, with the Dongfeng-21D and Dongfeng-26B forming the "aircraft carrier killers," with a range covering the first and second island chains. U.S. military CSIS war games show that within the first hour of war, key bases in the western Pacific can be paralyzed. Additionally, with the cooperation of the 055 destroyer and nuclear submarines, a "far, medium, near" three-layer defense strike network is formed, which is the real hard power.
These hidden cards have made the U.S. military deployment in the western Pacific increasingly passive. The Dongfeng missiles have turned U.S. bases and aircraft carriers into "live targets," with the current anti-missile systems intercepting less than 10% of Dongfeng-17 missiles. China's systematic combat capability has rendered the U.S. "distributed operations" strategy virtually ineffective, instead landing them in a predicament of "unable to defend and unable to strike back."
The reminder from American media is not wrong, but the interpretation is skewed. China's development of these heavy weapons is not for provocation, but for self-defense. In the past, without aircraft carriers or advanced weapons, we could only defend passively. Now, with these hidden cards, we can keep dangers at bay, and these achievements are all based on independent innovation, from electromagnetic catapults to carrier-based aircraft, with a domestic production rate as high as 98%. This is what truly makes the West wary.
A strong national defense is not reliant on a single piece of equipment but on systematic strength and independent innovation. China does not seek hegemony but will never allow others to bully us. These "hidden cards" are both a guarantee of peace and a warning to provocateurs. True strength has never been about flaunting muscles but about making opponents think twice before acting, and this is the wisdom of China's national defense.
The construction speed of Chinese aircraft carriers is indeed astonishing; the refit of the Liaoning took 7 years, the Shandong took only 2 years from launching to commissioning, and the Fujian started construction in 2018 and will officially be commissioned in 2025, completing the entire process from construction to combat capability in just 7 years, nearly half the time of the 12-year cycle of the U.S. Ford-class carriers. However, this is just the tip of the iceberg; what U.S. media really fears is the systematic hidden cards behind the aircraft carriers.
The world’s unique conventional power electromagnetic catapult technology allows the Fujian's launch preparation time to be only 90 seconds, 10 times faster than steam catapults, with a 30% increase in carrier-based aircraft sortie efficiency, and can accommodate a full spectrum of aircraft types from drones to heavy fighter jets. Coupled with the already deployed J-35 stealth carrier-based aircraft, which has a radar cross-section smaller than a palm, and the KJ-600 early warning aircraft, the operational radius of the carrier strike group is directly increased by 40%.
More crucial is the Dongfeng missile system, with the Dongfeng-21D and Dongfeng-26B forming the "aircraft carrier killers," with a range covering the first and second island chains. U.S. military CSIS war games show that within the first hour of war, key bases in the western Pacific can be paralyzed. Additionally, with the cooperation of the 055 destroyer and nuclear submarines, a "far, medium, near" three-layer defense strike network is formed, which is the real hard power.
These hidden cards have made the U.S. military deployment in the western Pacific increasingly passive. The Dongfeng missiles have turned U.S. bases and aircraft carriers into "live targets," with the current anti-missile systems intercepting less than 10% of Dongfeng-17 missiles. China's systematic combat capability has rendered the U.S. "distributed operations" strategy virtually ineffective, instead landing them in a predicament of "unable to defend and unable to strike back."
The reminder from American media is not wrong, but the interpretation is skewed. China's development of these heavy weapons is not for provocation, but for self-defense. In the past, without aircraft carriers or advanced weapons, we could only defend passively. Now, with these hidden cards, we can keep dangers at bay, and these achievements are all based on independent innovation, from electromagnetic catapults to carrier-based aircraft, with a domestic production rate as high as 98%. This is what truly makes the West wary.
A strong national defense is not reliant on a single piece of equipment but on systematic strength and independent innovation. China does not seek hegemony but will never allow others to bully us. These "hidden cards" are both a guarantee of peace and a warning to provocateurs. True strength has never been about flaunting muscles but about making opponents think twice before acting, and this is the wisdom of China's national defense.
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俄军千公里战线猛攻，乌军弹药见底！一支秘密部队正赶往战场？
千里战线上炮火轰鸣，乌克兰前线守军发现自己的弹药库存只够几次反击。
俄军在乌克兰千里战线上的攻势进入新阶段。
俄军总参谋长格拉西莫夫宣布，俄军正在几乎整条1000公里前线发动不间断的攻势，并已掌握战略主动权。
自2025年3月以来，俄罗斯已控制了超过3500平方公里的乌克兰领土和149个定居点。
在扎波罗热前线，俄军以锐不可当之势狂飙突进。仅仅6个星期，俄军便完全突破了扎波罗热乌军防线，胡利亚伊波列以东的整条防线土崩瓦解。
在1000公里漫长的战线上，使用小规模突击队消耗乌克兰前线兵力。
这种战术核心是拖垮乌克兰战线上士兵的战斗意志，一点一点啃食乌军控制区。
一旦俄军在某个点位撕开乌军防线，就将发动多波次冲击，彻底碾碎乌军防御体系。
面对战场颓势，欧盟表示，已敲定部署数万人部队到乌克兰的详细线路图，这支部队以欧洲为主导，美国提供情报、指挥和监控系统支持。
与此同时，挪威宣布向乌克兰追加5亿美元援助，加拿大确认提供2.35亿加元援助。
但这些援助能否及时弥补乌军损失仍是未知数。
乌克兰方面只能继续征兵，强化无人机部队，但俄军每月能增兵9000人，实力对比进一步倾斜。
战线后方，俄军1500辆坦克和装甲车组成的铁甲洪流蓄势待发，这个冬天对乌克兰而言比以往更加寒冷。
千里战线上炮火轰鸣，乌克兰前线守军发现自己的弹药库存只够几次反击。
俄军在乌克兰千里战线上的攻势进入新阶段。
俄军总参谋长格拉西莫夫宣布，俄军正在几乎整条1000公里前线发动不间断的攻势，并已掌握战略主动权。
自2025年3月以来，俄罗斯已控制了超过3500平方公里的乌克兰领土和149个定居点。
在扎波罗热前线，俄军以锐不可当之势狂飙突进。仅仅6个星期，俄军便完全突破了扎波罗热乌军防线，胡利亚伊波列以东的整条防线土崩瓦解。
在1000公里漫长的战线上，使用小规模突击队消耗乌克兰前线兵力。
这种战术核心是拖垮乌克兰战线上士兵的战斗意志，一点一点啃食乌军控制区。
一旦俄军在某个点位撕开乌军防线，就将发动多波次冲击，彻底碾碎乌军防御体系。
面对战场颓势，欧盟表示，已敲定部署数万人部队到乌克兰的详细线路图，这支部队以欧洲为主导，美国提供情报、指挥和监控系统支持。
与此同时，挪威宣布向乌克兰追加5亿美元援助，加拿大确认提供2.35亿加元援助。
但这些援助能否及时弥补乌军损失仍是未知数。
乌克兰方面只能继续征兵，强化无人机部队，但俄军每月能增兵9000人，实力对比进一步倾斜。
战线后方，俄军1500辆坦克和装甲车组成的铁甲洪流蓄势待发，这个冬天对乌克兰而言比以往更加寒冷。
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Just now, the government of Sanae Takaichi made an unprecedented major decision, releasing an extremely dangerous signal to the outside world. According to Japanese media reports on December 6, sources confirmed that the Takaichi government plans to establish a National Intelligence Agency as early as July 2026. It is worth mentioning that the newly established agency will have equal status with the National Security Agency, which is responsible for foreign and security policy, and will be granted the power to instruct various ministries and agencies to provide information. This means it will integrate information from the intelligence departments of government agencies such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense, the National Police Agency, and the Public Security Intelligence Agency. In other words, Japan is strengthening and elevating the unprecedented status of its intelligence agencies, which undoubtedly sends a dangerous signal to the outside world. According to multiple sources from the government and ruling party, the Takaichi government will submit relevant legislation to the regular session of the National Diet scheduled for January, as the first step in Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's intelligence reform initiative. The envisioned intelligence agency will be upgraded from the existing Cabinet Intelligence Research Office. The current Cabinet Intelligence Committee will be restructured into the National Intelligence Committee, in which Sanae Takaichi herself and related ministers will participate, while the newly established agency will serve as the secretariat of this committee. Previously, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party (also known as Nippon Ishin no Kai) agreed in their coalition governance agreement to work towards passing a bill to establish a National Intelligence Agency during the 2026 National Diet session.
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美国国务院消息！
2025年12月6日，美国国务院突然宣布美乌双方就"和平计划"进行了建设性讨论并破天荒地在安全安排框架上达成一致，还讨论了必要的威慑能力，这让持续已久的俄乌冲突看到了和平曙光。（据央视新闻）
其实美国特使和特朗普女婿库什纳这两天在迈阿密与乌克兰官员密集会谈这已经是双方两周内第六次碰头了。
别被"和平曙光"的话术忽悠，所谓共识全是避重就轻。领土划分、乌入北约这些核心分歧全被搁置，留待两国总统最终拍板。
这场密集会谈早有铺垫，美乌之前已把28点计划砍到19点，删掉了乌军规模限制、战争罪行特赦等争议内容。
背后藏着特朗普的选举算盘，他急需一场"外交胜利"，才催着特使和库什纳两边奔波，甚至跳过欧洲直接操盘。
普京早看穿套路，直言美方计划部分条款无法接受，领土问题不解决，谈和平就是空谈。俄美此前5小时会谈也没达成折中方案。
乌克兰民众早已扛不住了，52%的受访者支持谈判停火，比一年前暴涨25个百分点，基辅街头征兵短信已成常态。
美国一边喊和平，一边刚给乌5亿美元军援，还缺席北约外长会。这种单边操作，欧盟都看不下去，德国总理直言乌主权不能牺牲。
所谓"安全框架"就是张空头支票，美国只想冻结冲突，把乌克兰变成牵制俄罗斯的永久棋子。
2025年12月6日，美国国务院突然宣布美乌双方就"和平计划"进行了建设性讨论并破天荒地在安全安排框架上达成一致，还讨论了必要的威慑能力，这让持续已久的俄乌冲突看到了和平曙光。（据央视新闻）
其实美国特使和特朗普女婿库什纳这两天在迈阿密与乌克兰官员密集会谈这已经是双方两周内第六次碰头了。
别被"和平曙光"的话术忽悠，所谓共识全是避重就轻。领土划分、乌入北约这些核心分歧全被搁置，留待两国总统最终拍板。
这场密集会谈早有铺垫，美乌之前已把28点计划砍到19点，删掉了乌军规模限制、战争罪行特赦等争议内容。
背后藏着特朗普的选举算盘，他急需一场"外交胜利"，才催着特使和库什纳两边奔波，甚至跳过欧洲直接操盘。
普京早看穿套路，直言美方计划部分条款无法接受，领土问题不解决，谈和平就是空谈。俄美此前5小时会谈也没达成折中方案。
乌克兰民众早已扛不住了，52%的受访者支持谈判停火，比一年前暴涨25个百分点，基辅街头征兵短信已成常态。
美国一边喊和平，一边刚给乌5亿美元军援，还缺席北约外长会。这种单边操作，欧盟都看不下去，德国总理直言乌主权不能牺牲。
所谓"安全框架"就是张空头支票，美国只想冻结冲突，把乌克兰变成牵制俄罗斯的永久棋子。
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On Saturday, three major positive developments are coming. How should we view A-shares next week? I'm here to pour cold water!
There are indeed many positives, let's count three major ones:
1. Insurance funds are allowed back into the market! The stock market is expected to welcome hundreds of billions in funds,
2. Moreover, the expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December has increased, with both U.S. stocks and Chinese concept stocks rising,
3. Next week we will enter the anticipated time for significant meetings! The market is expected to speculate on meeting expectations!
However, I believe the rebound strength is limited. I initially thought of writing a 5-day prediction for ups and downs, but I was afraid of misleading everyone, so I changed it to pour cold water and remind of risks!
1. December is likely to be a turnaround for the worse because the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates with two meetings, but after these positives end, there will likely be a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan!
2. The major shareholders' reduction at the end of the year has not ended. Many companies announced reductions yesterday!
3. From a technical perspective, this wave of rebound will reach around the 17th, followed by another drop to a new low! 3816 points! Of course, afterward, it will be smooth sailing; I believe there will be a significant increase!
4. Additionally, the upcoming time points are clearly the time points of the meetings, such as the 11th for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the 18th for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, and other meeting time points that have not been announced! These time points are to prevent the positives from being realized and sudden negative news!
There are indeed many positives, let's count three major ones:
1. Insurance funds are allowed back into the market! The stock market is expected to welcome hundreds of billions in funds,
2. Moreover, the expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December has increased, with both U.S. stocks and Chinese concept stocks rising,
3. Next week we will enter the anticipated time for significant meetings! The market is expected to speculate on meeting expectations!
However, I believe the rebound strength is limited. I initially thought of writing a 5-day prediction for ups and downs, but I was afraid of misleading everyone, so I changed it to pour cold water and remind of risks!
1. December is likely to be a turnaround for the worse because the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates with two meetings, but after these positives end, there will likely be a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan!
2. The major shareholders' reduction at the end of the year has not ended. Many companies announced reductions yesterday!
3. From a technical perspective, this wave of rebound will reach around the 17th, followed by another drop to a new low! 3816 points! Of course, afterward, it will be smooth sailing; I believe there will be a significant increase!
4. Additionally, the upcoming time points are clearly the time points of the meetings, such as the 11th for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the 18th for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, and other meeting time points that have not been announced! These time points are to prevent the positives from being realized and sudden negative news!
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坏消息传到克里姆林宫，普京忍无可忍下令大轰炸，敖德萨陷入火海！
新华社消息，当地时间12月2日早上，乌克兰使用自杀式无人机，再次袭击了俄罗斯油轮“伏尔加-2”号。据悉，这次遭袭俄油轮携带的并非是传统的汽油和柴油而是葵花籽油。乌克兰这次袭击中使用的是FP-1型自杀式无人机。据悉，这已经是4天时间里，乌克兰第3次袭击俄罗斯油轮。此前乌克兰使用无人机袭击了俄罗斯的两艘冈比亚国籍的油轮一艘15万吨，一艘11万吨。
油轮再次遭遇袭击的坏消息传到克里姆林宫，普京也是忍无可忍，当即下令对乌克兰港口敖德萨等进行猛烈轰炸。据报道，俄罗斯使用了天竺2无人机等对敖德萨等乌克兰港口进行猛烈攻击。尽管乌克兰组织防空力量实施拦截，但还是有大量无人机突防成功，精准命中了敖德萨港口基础设施，以及停靠在敖德萨的石油船只等。
俄无人机袭击后引起爆炸，敖德萨陷入一片火海。普京下令实施轰炸的同时，也向乌克兰发出了最严厉警告，强调称如果乌克兰继续袭击俄罗斯油轮，那么俄将会对敖德萨等乌克兰港口以及停靠在这些港口的船只实施更加猛烈袭击，甚至不排除直接切断乌克兰港口与海外的联系。对于乌克兰而言，敖德萨港是乌接收西方援助的核心港口，一旦与外界联系被切断，那么乌克兰战略物资将快速枯竭。
据报道，俄罗斯油轮12月2日遭袭的海域是距离土耳其海岸约80英里处，属于黑海最繁忙的航道之一。土耳其方面证实了这次袭击，但是却强调称乌克兰的袭击并没有引起俄方油轮求助，因为相应无人机并没有给油轮带来根本性破坏。也就是说，乌克兰无人机的袭击威力是非常有限的。俄罗斯这次报复也是使用无人机进行报复，并没有使用大规模的导弹报复方式。
俄罗斯在轰炸敖德萨港切断乌克兰与海外联系方面也不是毫无顾虑，这也是其采取有限手段进行报复的基本原因。土耳其等北约国家一直反对对敖德萨的封锁，并且多次出动军舰为进入敖德萨港的西方船只护航。俄罗斯在不少方面需要得到土耳其支持，不敢直接与土耳其撕破脸，所以在采取打击措施上比较谨慎。当然，普京的性格一直是很硬气的，只要有合适的理由，俄轰炸就会立即开始。
敖德萨港不仅仅是欧洲援助物资的主要输入地，而且也是乌克兰粮食和矿产等卖向欧洲的关键港口，可谓是关乎乌克兰经济命脉。来自北约的军火船等经常在敖德萨遭遇俄导弹精确摧毁，乌克兰爱国者防空系统也是办法不多。目前乌克兰想要通过袭击俄油轮的方式震慑俄罗斯，但是俄报复式轰炸造成的损失显然更大。对于乌克兰而言确实是太难了，每次对俄轰炸，总是遭遇更加猛烈报复，并且每一个轮回吃亏的都是乌克兰。
新华社消息，当地时间12月2日早上，乌克兰使用自杀式无人机，再次袭击了俄罗斯油轮“伏尔加-2”号。据悉，这次遭袭俄油轮携带的并非是传统的汽油和柴油而是葵花籽油。乌克兰这次袭击中使用的是FP-1型自杀式无人机。据悉，这已经是4天时间里，乌克兰第3次袭击俄罗斯油轮。此前乌克兰使用无人机袭击了俄罗斯的两艘冈比亚国籍的油轮一艘15万吨，一艘11万吨。
油轮再次遭遇袭击的坏消息传到克里姆林宫，普京也是忍无可忍，当即下令对乌克兰港口敖德萨等进行猛烈轰炸。据报道，俄罗斯使用了天竺2无人机等对敖德萨等乌克兰港口进行猛烈攻击。尽管乌克兰组织防空力量实施拦截，但还是有大量无人机突防成功，精准命中了敖德萨港口基础设施，以及停靠在敖德萨的石油船只等。
俄无人机袭击后引起爆炸，敖德萨陷入一片火海。普京下令实施轰炸的同时，也向乌克兰发出了最严厉警告，强调称如果乌克兰继续袭击俄罗斯油轮，那么俄将会对敖德萨等乌克兰港口以及停靠在这些港口的船只实施更加猛烈袭击，甚至不排除直接切断乌克兰港口与海外的联系。对于乌克兰而言，敖德萨港是乌接收西方援助的核心港口，一旦与外界联系被切断，那么乌克兰战略物资将快速枯竭。
据报道，俄罗斯油轮12月2日遭袭的海域是距离土耳其海岸约80英里处，属于黑海最繁忙的航道之一。土耳其方面证实了这次袭击，但是却强调称乌克兰的袭击并没有引起俄方油轮求助，因为相应无人机并没有给油轮带来根本性破坏。也就是说，乌克兰无人机的袭击威力是非常有限的。俄罗斯这次报复也是使用无人机进行报复，并没有使用大规模的导弹报复方式。
俄罗斯在轰炸敖德萨港切断乌克兰与海外联系方面也不是毫无顾虑，这也是其采取有限手段进行报复的基本原因。土耳其等北约国家一直反对对敖德萨的封锁，并且多次出动军舰为进入敖德萨港的西方船只护航。俄罗斯在不少方面需要得到土耳其支持，不敢直接与土耳其撕破脸，所以在采取打击措施上比较谨慎。当然，普京的性格一直是很硬气的，只要有合适的理由，俄轰炸就会立即开始。
敖德萨港不仅仅是欧洲援助物资的主要输入地，而且也是乌克兰粮食和矿产等卖向欧洲的关键港口，可谓是关乎乌克兰经济命脉。来自北约的军火船等经常在敖德萨遭遇俄导弹精确摧毁，乌克兰爱国者防空系统也是办法不多。目前乌克兰想要通过袭击俄油轮的方式震慑俄罗斯，但是俄报复式轰炸造成的损失显然更大。对于乌克兰而言确实是太难了，每次对俄轰炸，总是遭遇更加猛烈报复，并且每一个轮回吃亏的都是乌克兰。
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December 6th, without a second bottom, the May moving average support is quite strong, and the Shanghai Composite Index will rise significantly. A slow bull market, with a monthly level decline indicating a bull turn. The May moving average of the Shanghai Composite Index has moved up to 3897 points, and it will close above 4000 points in December.
Looking back at previous bull markets, every time the index rises by around 1000 points, there is usually a monthly level pullback. The timeframe for the pullback is generally around three months. The pullback range is about 100 points above and below the May moving average. If the pullback is too large, the upward trend will reverse.
Since the beginning of April, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen from 3040 points to 4034 points, accumulating a rise of 1000 points. In November, the monthly line closed in the red, with a monthly decline of 1.67%, retracing to the May moving average. The Shanghai Composite Index has been oscillating around 4000 points for three months, with the monthly level pullback in place.
Based on the monthly level analysis, the earliest in December, and the latest in January next year, the Shanghai Composite Index will begin a main upward wave. Starting from 4034 points, the upward range is 1000 points. The peak of this bull market is near 5034 points, close to the previous bull market's 5178 points.
The monthly level pullback of the Shanghai Composite Index is around 100 points above and below the May moving average, with the December low at 3789 points. This week, the lowest point of the Shanghai Composite Index was 3859 points, followed by a significant rebound, making the possibility of a second bottom very low. 3859 points is likely the low point for December.
Next week, the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and U.S. stocks will rise significantly. The external situation is easing, and domestic economic data is stable with an upward trend. Recently, there have been continuous positive factors, with increased inflows of insurance funds into the market, significantly boosting liquidity. The market outlook for December is very optimistic, and I wish everyone good luck next week!
Looking back at previous bull markets, every time the index rises by around 1000 points, there is usually a monthly level pullback. The timeframe for the pullback is generally around three months. The pullback range is about 100 points above and below the May moving average. If the pullback is too large, the upward trend will reverse.
Since the beginning of April, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen from 3040 points to 4034 points, accumulating a rise of 1000 points. In November, the monthly line closed in the red, with a monthly decline of 1.67%, retracing to the May moving average. The Shanghai Composite Index has been oscillating around 4000 points for three months, with the monthly level pullback in place.
Based on the monthly level analysis, the earliest in December, and the latest in January next year, the Shanghai Composite Index will begin a main upward wave. Starting from 4034 points, the upward range is 1000 points. The peak of this bull market is near 5034 points, close to the previous bull market's 5178 points.
The monthly level pullback of the Shanghai Composite Index is around 100 points above and below the May moving average, with the December low at 3789 points. This week, the lowest point of the Shanghai Composite Index was 3859 points, followed by a significant rebound, making the possibility of a second bottom very low. 3859 points is likely the low point for December.
Next week, the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and U.S. stocks will rise significantly. The external situation is easing, and domestic economic data is stable with an upward trend. Recently, there have been continuous positive factors, with increased inflows of insurance funds into the market, significantly boosting liquidity. The market outlook for December is very optimistic, and I wish everyone good luck next week!
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The United States is flustered, Japan is finished, India is anxious, the Philippines are trembling, the UK, France, and Germany are silent, Australia has stopped jumping, South Korea is listening to the wind, and the root of all this is that they have finally understood that the J-20 is not China's trump card; the potential we are hiding is much deeper than they imagine.
Many people still view the J-20 as simply "China has a fifth-generation fighter jet," believing it to be the pinnacle of our aviation industry. But the reality is that the mass production and continuous improvement of the J-20 resemble a signal, marking that China's entire military-industrial system has entered a virtuous cycle.
It is not an isolated star product but rather a showcase of a vast industrial system. When a cutting-edge weapon can be stably produced in large quantities and continuously upgraded, it indicates that the design, materials, processes, and supply chains behind it have matured completely. This systematic capability is what truly makes opponents feel uneasy.
The reason the United States is "flustered" is that they suddenly realized that the technological gap they pride themselves on is being rapidly closed. In the past, the U.S. Air Force relied on the stealth capabilities of the F-22 and F-35, holding an absolute advantage globally.
But now, the J-20 not only achieves equivalent stealth design but also surpasses in avionics systems, data links, and artificial intelligence-assisted decision-making.
Military analysts point out that the J-20's distributed aperture system and electro-optical targeting system have already surpassed the F-35 in some performance indicators, meaning that in beyond-visual-range air combat, J-20 pilots can detect and lock onto targets much earlier. This technical parity has completely shattered the U.S. Air Force's monopoly.
Japan's reaction is more complex; this country has always viewed the Air Self-Defense Force as the pillar of its national defense, investing heavily to purchase F-35s from the U.S., and attempting to independently develop its next-generation fighter jets.
However, the emergence of the J-20 has made Japan's "Shinshin" project seem dim, ultimately forcing it to withdraw. What makes Japan feel even more desperate is the realization that even with the F-35, they cannot compete with China in terms of quantity and quality.
China's vast territory and comprehensive industrial system can support many more fighter jet production lines and pilot training systems than Japan. This gap cannot be bridged by purchasing a few advanced aircraft; it is a crushing disparity at the national strength level.
India's anxiety is also very realistic; their own "Tejas" fighter jet has been in development for decades and still has not fully achieved combat capability, while the hoped-for purchase quantity of Rafale jets is limited.
As China's J-20 has already equipped hundreds of units and begun developing sixth-generation fighter jets, India finds that it hasn't even reached the threshold for fifth-generation fighter jets.
This huge gap makes the Indian military high command feel uneasy. They understand that in future air confrontations, if they cannot even guarantee air supremacy, then their advantages on land and sea are meaningless.
The Philippines' "trembling" is more direct; this country has long wanted to leverage external forces to make some small moves regarding the South China Sea issue. But now they find that China's air power can easily cover the entire South China Sea region.
The J-20's ultra-long range and stealth capabilities mean it can precisely strike any target in the South China Sea undetected. The second-hand ships the Philippines bought from abroad have almost no survival capability in front of the J-20. This stark disparity in strength forces the Philippines to reassess its risky behavior.
The silence of the UK, France, and Germany reflects European countries' sober recognition of changes in the international landscape. They know that China's rise is irreversible, and rapid military development is just one aspect of this rise.
Rather than following the U.S. in causing a commotion as in the past, it is better to keep a low profile and seek cooperation with China in areas such as trade and economy. After all, no one wants to offend a partner with strong military strength and a vast market by intervening in Asia-Pacific affairs.
Australia's "stopping jumping" is also based on realistic considerations. This country in the Southern Hemisphere has previously wanted to act as the "deputy sheriff" of the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region.
However, with the strengthening of China's air force, Australia realizes that it is too close to China; once a conflict occurs, it will be completely within the strike range of Chinese air power.
Australia's defense experts are well aware that their air force cannot compete with China's air force at all, and continued provocations would only bring unnecessary risks.
South Korea's "listening to the wind" reflects its helplessness in the cracks between great powers. On one hand, South Korea needs U.S. military protection; on the other hand, China is its largest trading partner.
The emergence of the J-20 allows South Korea to see China's growing military strength and makes them understand how important it is to maintain balance between China and the U.S. Any action that leans towards one side could lead to catastrophic consequences for South Korea.
As for Lai Ching-te's "sleepless nights," that is even easier to understand. He knows that the so-called "Taiwan independence" is just an illusion; in the face of China's powerful military strength, any attempt to split the nation is doomed to fail.
The deployment of the J-20 has completely shattered the fantasies of "Taiwan independence" supporters. They know that once they cross the red line, they will face overwhelming retaliation, and their so-called "defense system" is virtually non-existent against the J-20.
Ultimately, the J-20 is just a microcosm; behind it is China's complete industrial system, strong scientific research capabilities, and solid national strength. When China can independently produce all key components from aircraft engines to advanced radar, from composite materials to precision chips, it means we have taken control of the modernization of national defense.
This capability is not something that one or two advanced weapons can demonstrate; it reflects the comprehensive strength of the entire country. What all countries now see is this unfathomable potential, and this is what truly makes them feel awe.
Many people still view the J-20 as simply "China has a fifth-generation fighter jet," believing it to be the pinnacle of our aviation industry. But the reality is that the mass production and continuous improvement of the J-20 resemble a signal, marking that China's entire military-industrial system has entered a virtuous cycle.
It is not an isolated star product but rather a showcase of a vast industrial system. When a cutting-edge weapon can be stably produced in large quantities and continuously upgraded, it indicates that the design, materials, processes, and supply chains behind it have matured completely. This systematic capability is what truly makes opponents feel uneasy.
The reason the United States is "flustered" is that they suddenly realized that the technological gap they pride themselves on is being rapidly closed. In the past, the U.S. Air Force relied on the stealth capabilities of the F-22 and F-35, holding an absolute advantage globally.
But now, the J-20 not only achieves equivalent stealth design but also surpasses in avionics systems, data links, and artificial intelligence-assisted decision-making.
Military analysts point out that the J-20's distributed aperture system and electro-optical targeting system have already surpassed the F-35 in some performance indicators, meaning that in beyond-visual-range air combat, J-20 pilots can detect and lock onto targets much earlier. This technical parity has completely shattered the U.S. Air Force's monopoly.
Japan's reaction is more complex; this country has always viewed the Air Self-Defense Force as the pillar of its national defense, investing heavily to purchase F-35s from the U.S., and attempting to independently develop its next-generation fighter jets.
However, the emergence of the J-20 has made Japan's "Shinshin" project seem dim, ultimately forcing it to withdraw. What makes Japan feel even more desperate is the realization that even with the F-35, they cannot compete with China in terms of quantity and quality.
China's vast territory and comprehensive industrial system can support many more fighter jet production lines and pilot training systems than Japan. This gap cannot be bridged by purchasing a few advanced aircraft; it is a crushing disparity at the national strength level.
India's anxiety is also very realistic; their own "Tejas" fighter jet has been in development for decades and still has not fully achieved combat capability, while the hoped-for purchase quantity of Rafale jets is limited.
As China's J-20 has already equipped hundreds of units and begun developing sixth-generation fighter jets, India finds that it hasn't even reached the threshold for fifth-generation fighter jets.
This huge gap makes the Indian military high command feel uneasy. They understand that in future air confrontations, if they cannot even guarantee air supremacy, then their advantages on land and sea are meaningless.
The Philippines' "trembling" is more direct; this country has long wanted to leverage external forces to make some small moves regarding the South China Sea issue. But now they find that China's air power can easily cover the entire South China Sea region.
The J-20's ultra-long range and stealth capabilities mean it can precisely strike any target in the South China Sea undetected. The second-hand ships the Philippines bought from abroad have almost no survival capability in front of the J-20. This stark disparity in strength forces the Philippines to reassess its risky behavior.
The silence of the UK, France, and Germany reflects European countries' sober recognition of changes in the international landscape. They know that China's rise is irreversible, and rapid military development is just one aspect of this rise.
Rather than following the U.S. in causing a commotion as in the past, it is better to keep a low profile and seek cooperation with China in areas such as trade and economy. After all, no one wants to offend a partner with strong military strength and a vast market by intervening in Asia-Pacific affairs.
Australia's "stopping jumping" is also based on realistic considerations. This country in the Southern Hemisphere has previously wanted to act as the "deputy sheriff" of the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region.
However, with the strengthening of China's air force, Australia realizes that it is too close to China; once a conflict occurs, it will be completely within the strike range of Chinese air power.
Australia's defense experts are well aware that their air force cannot compete with China's air force at all, and continued provocations would only bring unnecessary risks.
South Korea's "listening to the wind" reflects its helplessness in the cracks between great powers. On one hand, South Korea needs U.S. military protection; on the other hand, China is its largest trading partner.
The emergence of the J-20 allows South Korea to see China's growing military strength and makes them understand how important it is to maintain balance between China and the U.S. Any action that leans towards one side could lead to catastrophic consequences for South Korea.
As for Lai Ching-te's "sleepless nights," that is even easier to understand. He knows that the so-called "Taiwan independence" is just an illusion; in the face of China's powerful military strength, any attempt to split the nation is doomed to fail.
The deployment of the J-20 has completely shattered the fantasies of "Taiwan independence" supporters. They know that once they cross the red line, they will face overwhelming retaliation, and their so-called "defense system" is virtually non-existent against the J-20.
Ultimately, the J-20 is just a microcosm; behind it is China's complete industrial system, strong scientific research capabilities, and solid national strength. When China can independently produce all key components from aircraft engines to advanced radar, from composite materials to precision chips, it means we have taken control of the modernization of national defense.
This capability is not something that one or two advanced weapons can demonstrate; it reflects the comprehensive strength of the entire country. What all countries now see is this unfathomable potential, and this is what truly makes them feel awe.
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