Why does CPI matter? Because every major data point in the past 10 days shows the economy weakening:
âą Payrolls revised down 911,000 jobs (biggest cut in history) âą Unemployment up to 4.3% (highest since 2021) âą PPI cooled to 2.6% vs 3.3% expected; Core PPI 2.8% vs 3.5% expected
Together: jobs are weakening, wholesale inflation is falling, consumers are under pressure. CPI now decides how big the Fed cuts rates.
â Above expectations CPI â Fed still cuts, but only 25bps, more cautious.
â At expectations â 25bps September cut confirmed as base case.
The crypto market rose 1.71% in the last 24h, extending a 3.54% weekly gain. Key drivers include ETF momentum, technical breakouts, and institutional accumulation.
Technical Momentum â Market cap broke above 200-day SMA ($3.28T), RSI at 59 signals room for growth.
Institutional BTC/ETH Buys â Corporates added $5.4B BTC last week; ETH validator queue hits 2-year high.
Fed Rate Cut Bets â 97% odds for September cuts after weak jobs data, boosting risk assets.
Deep Dive 1. XRP ETF Momentum (Bullish)
Overview: Polymarket odds for an XRP ETF surged to 91%, mirroring pre-approval patterns seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Rippleâs RLUSD stablecoin ($700M market cap) and U.S. banking charter application added credibility. What it means: Approval could trigger a 60-100% XRP rally historically, per AI models cited in social chatter. Watch for: SEC decision timeline â analysts flag October as critical. 2. Technical Breakout Confirmation
Overview: Total market cap ($3.89T) reclaimed the 200-day SMA and tested Fibonacci 78.6% retracement ($3.85T). MACD histogram turned positive (+$1.22B), signaling bullish momentum. What it means: A close above $3.97T (50% Fib) could target $4.17T yearly high. Volume surged 73% vs. 7d avg, supporting the move. 3. Institutional Accumulation
Overview: Bitcoin holdings by public companies hit 6.2% of supply (638,460 BTC). ETH ETFs saw $1B inflows on September 7 alone, per on-chain data. What it means: BlackRockâs ETH ETF now holds $12B AUM â institutions are rotating into crypto as rate cuts near. Conclusion
Todayâs gains reflect a trifecta of ETF optimism, technical triggers, and institutional positioning ahead of expected Fed easing. While derivatives data shows caution (open interest -3.59%), spot market conviction appears stronger. Can altcoins like XRP and ETH sustain momentum if Bitcoin dominance (57.6%) holds? Watco