鹿咖script master

#Luna #Lunc $LUNC This wave of surge, I only consider it as a "high-risk sentiment play" to engage in.

In the past two days, $LUNC has directly shown a doubling market, with trading volume increasing several times, triggered by multiple points: Binance supports the chain upgrade on December 8, the quarterly coin burn continues to accelerate, and the expectations of Do Kwon's verdict combined with the "retro LUNA T-shirt meme" during Blockchain Week have ignited the sentiment all at once.

My core viewpoint:
This is a typical "narrative + coin burn + legal drama" driven sentiment market, rather than a fundamental turnaround. The on-chain TVL and real applications have not undergone a qualitative change, only the supply side is continuously contracting (total destruction exceeds 400B, nearly 1 billion burned in the past 7 days, circulation still at the 6T+ level).

If you must engage, my advice is:
• Only treat it as a high Beta sentiment target, short-term speculation, never a long-term relationship;
• Control positions within 3% of total funds, enter and exit in batches, accept "riding the elevator";
• Use key support at the 4H level for hard stop-loss, exit if it breaks, no feelings involved;
• Do not go all-in on spot trading, do not engage in contracts without stop-loss, to avoid repeating the mistakes of the 2022 batch of bagholders.

In summary: This wave can be participated in, but only as a "event-driven short-term play", cannot be treated as a "belief turnaround battle". Of course, if you really want to play for sentiment, that is also understandable, after all, in the web3 world, myths are not fairy tales.

#RWA #Defi Japan's interest rate hike, is it actually good for "RWA & Fixed Income DeFi"?
When people mention interest rate hikes, the first reaction is often that "risk assets will suffer." However, if we shift our perspective to on-chain, it may actually be structurally beneficial for RWA & Fixed Income DeFi:
• Offline interest rates rising → Various bonds and notes yield better returns
• RWA protocols bringing these assets on-chain can offer more competitive yields
• In a "high interest + high uncertainty" environment, stable cash flow assets will become increasingly popular

View on BTC:
• In the short term, we still need to respect the pricing of "risk assets," which may be cut together;
• In the medium to long term, if fiat systems frequently raise interest rates, experience inflation and volatility, the allocation value of BTC as a "borderless asset" may be re-evaluated by mainstream institutions.

My thoughts:
• Reduce leverage,
• Mainstream assets like BTC/ETH as a base,
• Allocate a small portion to reliable RWA/fixed income DeFi for "on-chain bonds."

Which leg do you see as more promising on-chain now: high-yield DeFi or honestly holding BTC?

#加密市场观察 #日本加息 yen interest rate hike = global 'turning off the tap'?
It is basically confirmed that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% in December, meaning one of the cheapest financing currencies in the world is starting to rise in price, and the Japanese yen carry trade chain will be forced to reprice.
My view on BTC:
• Short term: Interest rate hike landing + expectation heating up, funds tightening, BTC is likely to drop first and then retest the 90000 or even 82000 range before discussing further.
• Medium term: If global risk assets are generally under pressure, BTC may instead be regarded as a 'anti-fiat asset', following a different path from the stock market.

Affected sectors:
• Negative: High-leverage contracts, MEME, GameFi, and other purely emotional sectors—when liquidity tightens, these will be the first to be killed.
• Structurally beneficial:
• Spot BTC / ETH, BTC spot ETF, leaning towards 'hard asset' tracks
• Stable yield DeFi, RWA fixed income products, have the opportunity to benefit from 'interest rate rise + declining risk appetite' migration
In summary: The yen interest rate hike first kills sentiment in the crypto circle, then selects assets. What assets are you choosing? How do you choose the track? Let's discuss in the comments?

#美联储重启降息步伐 The Federal Reserve is changing leaders, is it a bull market or just a script?

The current plot is roughly as follows:
• Trump wants to replace Powell, the next hot candidate: Kevin Hassett?
• His personal stance leans towards "aggressive rate cuts", and the market is worried about uncontrolled inflation; bond investors are already starting to worry
• The predicted market has raised his election probability significantly, it's like a "potential bull market trailer"

What does it mean for the cryptocurrency world if such a person becomes the chairman of the Federal Reserve?
It could mean:
• Interest rates are more likely to go down, and the purchasing power of the dollar is gradually diluted
• Funds are more willing to rush into high-risk assets
• Story-based assets (tech stocks, cryptocurrencies) will thrive together

But don't forget, the Federal Reserve chairman decides "how much to turn on the faucet", not "just giving you BTC and MEME for watering".
What really determines your account curve is:
• Are you brave enough to endure the previous fluctuations?
• When the bull market comes, do you still have chips in the game?
In short, are you ready with your bullets?
Then the question arises:
If Hassett really takes office, do you plan to:
"Buy the dip and increase positions to gamble on easing",
or "be a calm observer and watch the entire season of the Federal Reserve drama before speaking"?

#AT Yesterday, there was a general rise, but only AT dropped, AT has been listed on Binance spot for 7 days now, and I am concerned about 3 points:
AT's listing on Binance spot, is this “real value” or “first day emotional hype”?
Let me provide some background:
• Project name: APRO (AT)
• Track: AI-enhanced oracle / data infrastructure
• November 27, 14:00 (UTC) listed on Binance spot, trading pairs AT/USDT, AT/USDC, AT/BNB, AT/TRY, and tagged with Seed Tag (early high volatility).
• Initially airdropped 20 million tokens (approximately 2% of supply) to users holding BNB Simple Earn and On-Chain Yield through HODLer Airdrops, followed by a reward of 15 million AT for trading activities.
I see this spot listing, first looking at three things:

1. Unlocking & Chip Structure
• The early airdrop recipients of AT had a cost almost close to 0;
• At the beginning of the listing, they are the most motivated group to cash out.
2. Order Depth & Matching Quality
• In the first few hours after the listing, check if the order book only has thin tens of thousands of dollars or if there are real institutions doing depth;
• If the depth is very thin and the trading volume is very high, it can easily turn into a pure emotional roller coaster.
3. Differentiation from established oracles
• Claiming to be an “AI-enhanced oracle,” but the specific capabilities need to be assessed:
• Price feeding accuracy / latency
• Supported chains & application scenarios
• Whether there are indeed leading projects using it, rather than just written in PPT.
My strategy preference:
• Not chasing the first crazy spike;
• Prefer to observe the trading structure after the first day/first three days,
then consider whether to include it in the “infrastructure small position trial and error pool.”
This is not a suggestion, just a framework I see for new spot listings, but I already jumped in on the first day of AT's listing, and I will still hold firmly!
Do you think the oracle track is still worth betting on new projects? Feel free to discuss in the comments.

#AT#加密市场观察 AT listed on Binance spot for 5 days: Although it cannot compete with the overall market trend, I still want to pay attention to it. I care about 3 points:
AT listed on Binance spot, is this time “true value” or “first-day emotional trap”?
Let’s provide some background:
• Project Name: APRO (AT)
• Track: AI-enhanced oracle / data infrastructure
• November 27, 14:00 (UTC) listed on Binance spot, trading pairs AT/USDT, AT/USDC, AT/BNB, AT/TRY, with a Seed Tag (early high volatility).
• Initially, 20 million tokens were airdropped through HODLer Airdrops to users holding BNB Simple Earn and On-Chain Yield (about 2% of supply), followed by another 15 million AT trading activity rewards.
I look at this spot listing and focus on three things:

1. Unlocking & chip structure
• Those who got AT through early airdrops have a cost almost close to 0;
• In the early listing phase, they are the most motivated to cash out.
2. Order book depth & matching quality
• In the first few hours after the listing, check whether there are only a few tens of thousands of dollars on the order book or if there are actual institutions providing depth;
• If the depth is very thin and the transactions are intense, it can easily turn into a pure emotional rollercoaster.
3. Differentiation from established oracles
• Claiming to be an “AI-enhanced oracle,” but specific capabilities need to be assessed:
• Price feeding accuracy / latency
• Supported chains & application scenarios
• Whether real leading projects are using it, rather than just writing it on PPT.
My strategy preference:
• Not chasing the first crazy K-line;
• Prefer to observe the trading structure of the first day/first three days,
before considering whether to include it in the “infrastructure small position trial pool.”
This is not advice, just a framework for how I view new spots, although I already jumped in on the first day it launched on the AT chain.

#Aster Aster Major Unlock!!!
Major unlock + High Inflation, this is the real key variable
Aster's focus this round is not just about 'how much it has increased,' but rather—after the unlock, who is taking over and who is offloading.
• ASTER total supply 8 billion, airdrop accounts for 53.5%, the first batch of 704 million (approximately 8.8% of total supply) will be unlocked in September TGE, followed by linear release over 80 months.
• At the beginning of October, another wave of about 320 million will be unlocked, accounting for about 19% of the circulating supply, hitting the market all at once, creating considerable short-term supply pressure.
• The current price remains around 1.1, considered to be in a 'high inflation running' state.
I am currently looking at three things:
1. Trading volume / Depth
• After the major unlock, is there actually someone taking over, or just 'insiders trading against each other'?
• If the volume increases but the orders are thin + everyone is waiting to offload, then it's a typical situation of taking profit after a spike.
2. On-chain behavior
• Is the unlock address directly hitting exchanges, or is it being transferred in batches to ecosystems for incentives?
• If more flows to ecosystem projects/incentive pools, the unlock may not necessarily be purely bearish.
3. Price action vs Narrative
• Before and after the unlock, has the project team synchronized product promotions or activities (like iOS launch, liquidity plans) to 'catch the chips'?
✅ My approach:
• I won't rush in to gamble on the result on the unlock day;
• Focus on the 3-7 days after the unlock,
observing whether the chips are 'digested by the market' or 'after being dumped, there's no volume left.'
This is not a suggestion, just my consistent thought process when handling major unlock projects, and of course, I am clear that I will hold Aster long-term.

A

#币安HODLer空投AT So get ready, let's start working hard.

#BNB创新高 The spot is winning in cognition. Now I just want to show a contract order, this is what I meant in my last post. Everyone is welcome to recommend valuable leaders of different sectors of the same type.

#RWA热潮 This market just happens to leave room for decentralized and private transactions. What opportunities do you think are available?

#加密市场回调 Why is it a violation to use this photo as my profile picture?

No cost-effectiveness

4x points boost