Atlantis-初心

Using contract clearing method to predict the downward point:

1 As shown in Chart 1: After a significant drop in $BTC, the lower edge of the trading range is 106500. To completely clear the long positions in the trading range, a 20% drop is required, meaning the clearing point is 85000. Today's low of 95600 has already dropped by 10%, and the clearing distance has covered half. There may be a small rebound over the weekend, but since the direction is downward, the mid-term trend will definitely reach around 85000!

2 Chart 2 shows the weekly trend line of $BTC. When the price drops to 85000, the measurement indicates it will take approximately 30-35 days at the latest, and this level is also roughly the support level of the weekly ma100 (the measurement time is the latest time; the shorter the time, the lower the pin point).

Therefore, according to this method, before reaching 85000, the mid-term trend is suitable for a rebound short. If you want to build a position on the left side, it's best to wait until it breaks 90000!

#加密市场回调

最后一句话 少打一个 不字 哈哈

$BTC has reached $94,000 again. The market movement always comes quietly. Before Christmas, I mentioned that it's a good time to gradually accumulate positions at lower levels during the holiday period. I reiterated the same point on Christmas Day. At this level, a sudden big move is unlikely, but a slow, steady upward trend remains highly probable. My reasoning is twofold:

1. Since the drop in mid-September, nearly four months have passed. Based on the past two years, a market rally typically occurs every six months. Timing-wise, continuing to accumulate at lower levels is still sound. Moreover, the current price-to-value ratio of key cryptocurrencies is quite favorable. However, this doesn't mean going all-in; half a position is perfectly acceptable—maintain flexibility to enter and exit as needed.

2. Looking at 2025 closing prices, gold and silver have outperformed the crypto market significantly, which is a reversal from past trends. However, from a capital flow perspective, gold and silver are currently at high levels with strong international market sentiment. Therefore, some institutional funds are likely already starting to exit. When gold and silver experience a major correction, these funds will have already pulled out, and some of that capital is expected to flow into the crypto market.

This current market move hasn't been driven by new developments or positive news in the crypto space. Thus, we can infer that institutional funds have been quietly accumulating positions recently. As retail investors, there's no reason to follow the institutional entry price points!

#BTC

$BTC has unknowingly reached 92,000, and there are more secondary opportunities. I bought some $FET when it first hit 0.2 around 12-18, which can be considered as buying at the short-term bottom. Today it is 0.28, a 40% increase!

#FET

$JOJO Nearly 40 times in one day, this surged a little after going live and then dropped so much that even my mom wouldn't recognize it. After that, I just left it alone, and today it unexpectedly gave a return, nearly multiplying my cost price by 10 times!

#JoJoWorld

Christmas and New Year's Day, both Eastern and Western New Year are approaching. Three years ago, $BTC always dropped during holidays, but in the last three years, it has been rising; In the past few days, those without positions can build some positions, and those with small positions can add a little on dips!

#BTC

$BTC $ETH are still fluctuating, and some mainstream altcoins have rebounded strongly; for example, $UNI was at 5.1 when the post was made yesterday, now it is at 5.8, a 15% increase. $uni was invested from 6 to 4.9, with an average price of 5.3, overall profit has also reached ten points. If the vote passes, and the buyback truly begins, there will be another wave!

#UNI

$UNI has been invested for a month, will the repurchase go through or is it worth a gamble!

#UNI

Last night it was mentioned that a small amount could be bought at the bottom. In the middle of the night, it tested 84450 again, and then followed the rebound of the US stock market. The short-term market looks at whether the US stocks will continue to rebound tonight or test lower (I personally feel that it is more likely to correct first and then rebound). As for $BTC, if it does not break 84000 by tomorrow morning, it can be seen as a daily three tests, so in the short term there should at least be a rebound to 94000;

In the past few months of declining market, it has been quite difficult to make money in spot trading. The only standout performance has been in the AI sector that I recommended back in late August, especially aimeme, which I have mentioned repeatedly in November and December. The logic is the favorable news from NVIDIA;

Although I am optimistic about this sector before the end of the year, I haven't made a big profit myself. The two with the most significant increase, $PIPPIN (50 times), I didn't build a position; $ARC (8 times) was stopped out at 1011; only $FARTCOIN and $SWARMS have doubled, and I have exited a large portion of both, leaving the rest to take profits in this market structure;

The secondary AI sector has performed a bit weakly before, with the leaders $FET and $WLD continuously making new lows, but I still added a bit of position today. I dare not go long, mainly because the secondary market has been too difficult this year. I am just betting that the overall market can stabilize temporarily after the aimeme outbreak to see if it can attract funds to the secondary AI sector!

#Aİ

The US stock market is still experiencing fluctuations and corrections. Whether the daily line will form a double top is crucial, and the medium-term trend will need to be observed around Christmas and New Year's! The overall direction of $BTC still follows the US stock market! For now, a small amount of dollar-cost averaging can be added!

Just now, a friend reported that there is a balance of $phy in the alpha account, but when selling, it shows a balance of 0, and the selling page prompts that the circulating quantity of $phy has exceeded the unlocked tokens. I checked, and it is indeed the case, but I haven't seen any news about a hacker attack. How could this happen? @Yi He @CZ @Binance Square Official

#PHY

The US stock market is still in a volatile pullback before the opening, and the $BTC market is equally boring. During the day, both the secondary market and Binance Alpha are overall in a pullback state. Fortunately, I have already reduced my positions in the past two days. The benefit of reducing positions is that, first, it locks in profits, and second, it allows for more flexibility in adding positions when the pullback reaches the expected level!

Similarly, for every major market movement or minor market movement, where does it generally reach? What are the signals? What are the results? These are also hard criteria to test one's trading skills. For those who want to engage in trading long-term, summarizing and correcting their trading systems through constant trial and error is a long, torturous, painful but essential process! Very few people can persist and survive!

The cryptocurrency market has developed since 2009, and the best opportunities (before 2022) have passed. The total number of participants worldwide has reached 600 million, and the chances for ordinary traders to profit are becoming smaller! Yet, there are still newcomers who are eager to join, and some even think about cultivating 'chives' from children!

As someone who is still relatively young, I feel it's necessary to say a few words:

If you have not yet become wealthy in the cryptocurrency market and your trading skills are not professional, nor do you have a large number of cryptocurrency fans, then do not hope that the current cryptocurrency market can change your wealth status. Stay informed and use your fragmented time to learn trading! The current environment of the cryptocurrency market has already passed the era of wild and sudden wealth; rather than fantasizing about becoming one of the elite among 600 million people, it is better to focus your attention on other future booming industries, such as AI.

Whether military, technology, business, or people's livelihood, AI will undoubtedly be the benchmark for the next 30 years, and there is no doubt about it!

The future strength of AI mainly depends on the utilization rate of solar energy in space. Looking around the Earth, only Tokyo University and the United States have the authority in this regard. Therefore, Tokyo University will surely be a strong country in AI in the future. Mastering AI will not leave you without a place to apply it! From product design, basic programming, model training, to one-click app and video image generation, and even mastering AI trading, you can outperform 90% of traders;

In the future, one person can manage multiple industries, and one person can run a company of a thousand people, which will become a reality, accompanied by immense wealth, and opportunities surpassing the cryptocurrency market by an unknown margin!

The secondary market has been fluctuating these past two days. Those with more positions at the bottom can consider selling part of it for swing trading, leaving the rest to time. On the other hand, Binance Alpha keeps stirring things up, which is somewhat expected; the secondary market is no longer Binance's focus. To ensure profits, the platform mainly relies on contract market making; if nothing happens, no one will participate in contracts!

Additionally, I am a bit worried that BSC meme is also starting to stir things up again. To be honest, I really dislike this; what’s the point of building on a faded meme play? Building is just a breeding ground for Z P! The ones benefiting are definitely not the vast majority of retail investors. I am also a retail investor, so I absolutely do not recommend such things! It's simply a trading cancer!

After rebounding last night, the day fluctuated all day. According to the pre-market trends of US stocks, it is highly likely that there will be a fluctuating correction in the evening. $BTC small fluctuation range 90,000-94,000; recent major fluctuation range 86,200-96,000 (the probability of breaking 93,000 and touching 96,000 has increased);

As for the reasons for the second probe the day before yesterday and the explosive rise last night, I think there is no need to delve deep. The market trends, aside from following US stocks, are mainly driven by contracts: Before it fell to 80,000, I had mentioned the contract liquidation price using the contract liquidation method. There are two levels, one is 85,000 (see pinned post), and the other is 80,000 (see image one). After reaching 80,000, almost all positions with more than 5x leverage were liquidated, so the main force temporarily lost the motivation to push down, as the profits from contracts far exceed those from spot market dumping;

To start the next market trend, a period of consolidation is necessary, which is to build momentum: Simply put, it is necessary to accumulate enough short and long positions, and the main force will then determine the direction of the next market trend based on the accumulated long and short positions!

Since the short-term trend is fluctuating, one only needs to go long at the support level or short at the resistance level. Looking at the first probe at 80,600 and the second probe at 83,800, the lows are gradually rising, with two lows forming an upward trend line. Before the trend line breaks, I prefer to touch the trend line to go long, and reduce positions at the major resistance level. From the weekly volume analysis, after a volume increase and then a decrease in volume rebound, there still needs to be a low volume bearish candle to indicate the end of the selling pressure. Therefore, there may be a third probe of the trend line, with points at 86,200-87,000;

#BTC走势分析

The US stock market opened up 1 point in the evening, and $btc also surged by 6-7% instantly. Some altcoins also saw significant increases. Currently, the US stock market is in a correction phase, making it unsuitable to chase the rise. The current market is characterized by sharp increases and decreases; even if it moves independently, it is still a fluctuating upward trend. Therefore, for those who missed the opportunity to add positions at the low, it is better to wait for a stable correction!

The four coins mentioned at 8 o'clock (see image one) have also shown good gains:

$FARTCOIN $FET increased by over 20% after 8 o'clock, and $wld also rose by 15%, which is a decent swing. Sell part of it, and look for opportunities to swing again after the correction!

Yesterday, U.S. stocks opened low and rose high, with recent fluctuations being the main theme. Similarly, the fluctuation range in the cryptocurrency market has emerged, and we can also trade around the upper and lower limits; the only standout is the AI meme sector:

Previously, there was a $ARC with a 9-fold increase, and then another $pinpin with an 11-fold increase. Unfortunately, my ARC was previously damaged, and the remaining $SWARMS and $FARTCOIN have not increased much. However, as long as Nvidia continues to rebound, the AI sector may still have the potential for another wave of market movement;

As for which one will be the next tenfold? It's hard to judge at the moment. The AI meme gained popularity in November last year and started to plummet in mid-December. After a year of consolidation, those that are still alive should also start to move. There are quite a few AI coins in the secondary market, such as the leading $WLD and $FET, which seem worth a small position to bet on Nvidia's rhythm by the end of the year!

At 5 a.m. on Monday, there was no impact from the U.S. stock market, leading to a sudden drop in $BTC to 84756. It can be considered a second test; we'll see the trend of the U.S. stock market this week.

December is the month for fund settlement, and generally, new year plans will start to take shape around Christmas (which is also New Year's in foreign countries); additionally, recently, the University of Tokyo has been cracking down hard on stablecoin trading, making it more difficult for new investors to enter the market. However, from a broader perspective, it is indeed necessary to strike down on this, as the current cryptocurrency space is no longer suitable for newcomers.

Cases like 1011, where even the roots of new investors are cut, have happened once, and there will be a second and third time. Such terrifying rates of going to zero, compared to increasingly smaller gains, suggest that for large funds, it is better to return to gold and the stock market, as at least they won't drop more than 90% overnight. Since the speculators like to destroy, they should be given some medicine; if you like to cut the roots of new investors, I will blow up the ground for you.

So my stance is that the University of Tokyo is right!

Now in the cryptocurrency space, there are countless altcoins, with thousands of meme coins appearing daily. 99% of VC coins peak right after they launch and do nothing to pump the market. Inferior coins have attracted too much capital in the market; it would be better when all the altcoins are wiped out, leaving only a few mainstream ones!

So, as long as a large number of altcoins have not died off and regulation is not enforced, it is highly likely that there won't be any crazy bull markets in the future; there will only be fluctuations within a certain range. To make money, solid trading skills are required!

In the next two years, every 4-6 months of bear market could bring about a wave of mainstream trends with 50%-100% gains. The number of coins that can achieve tenfold increases will continue to decrease; to earn more, one needs to know how to shift positions or have a keen eye for gold!

Back to the market situation, for now, let's observe the trend of the U.S. stock market this week while also watching if the 81000 level can hold for a second test. If it can hold, the recent fluctuation range will be 81000 to 92000; if it cannot hold, it will continue to decline in a downtrend!

#加密市场回调

$BTC has rebounded directly from 80600 to nearly 92000, an increase of 14%; $eth has risen from 2623 to 3071, an increase of 17%. This rebound, compared to the continuous decline of the previous period, is quite reassuring, at least in the short term, there won't be a new low;

On Monday, I thought there would be a second probe before rebounding, but as it turns out, thanks to the increased probability of interest rate cuts in December, we saw a small V-shaped rebound. Of course, it’s not considered a reversal yet. I’ve mentioned before that a complete trend reversal requires looking at the 96000 position. Now it’s still below 92000, so there’s still some distance from the reversal point; currently, Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market are also showing signs of volatile corrections, and we’ll need to wait and see the trend after the fluctuations;

This position is definitely not suitable for adding positions again. During the previous decline, I used a pyramid-style position addition method at 95000, 90000, 85000, and 80000 (with a ratio of 0.5-0.5-0.5-1.2). I have increased my position by 2.7 layers and have made a profit, and today I reduced 1 layer, which I will use for flexible trading;

For spot trading, the bear market is quite painful because opportunities are not plentiful. Moreover, compared to Bitcoin, it is highly unlikely to have another crazy bull market in the future, and the magnitude of movements will not be as significant as in previous years. Therefore, whether one can make money depends on whether they can handle short to medium-term trading. Those who can't, especially beginners, need to train their trading skills because trading will gradually become the norm!

The US stock market is expected to open higher later, approaching 1.8%. Currently, there's a slight pullback, while $btc has been in a pullback state since the afternoon. Even if the US stock market rallies tonight, it still won't change the trend of testing 80,000 again. Therefore, in the short trend, the cryptocurrency market may not necessarily follow the US stock market, and there is a possibility of timing differences: for example, a morning surge may prematurely consume the benefits of the US stock market, and when the US stock market rises, it might make a false move before continuing to pull back!

For such false moves, besides paying attention to the US stock market, we also need to make a judgment on the K-line movements of Bitcoin itself, and not rely entirely on the US stock market!

The short-term trend is still to wait for the results of the second test before taking action!

With no pressure from the US stock market, $BTC rebounded well over the weekend, almost reaching 87000, just one step away from the first resistance level of 87500 on the daily chart. If it stands above, the rebound can rise to the next level. Therefore, before the US stock market opens at 10:30 tomorrow night, it may maintain a slight rebound within a fluctuating range. Whether the US stock market will test again next week to drive $BTC to test 80000 again is a key point in recent trading.

Maintaining the second test of 80000 represents a short-term stop of the decline. As for the mid-term reversal point, it is at 96000. If it stands above 96000 later, it indicates that the mid-term trend has shifted from decline to rise.

Today's secondary market also had a slight rebound, with mainstream assets generally rising by 5-10 points, which should largely come from retail investors' bottom-fishing behavior. There hasn't been a significant sector effect in the leading stocks. The somewhat eye-catching AI sector had $ARC a few days ago, and today there is $pippin, while mining machine-related $ZEC is still fluctuating widely at high levels as previously judged.

Although I didn't catch the biggest gain today, the limit order from two days ago when it hit 80000 was also close to the low points of the past two days. Today's rebound is enough to offset some of the floating losses. Whether it's the mainstream rebound or the account funds' rebound, both can boost one's confidence. Having confidence is actually very important in trading; without confidence, there will be no execution power. Traders also need the results of the short-term rebound to tell themselves that adding positions during the decline is the right thing to do!

Of course, this doesn't mean blindly adding positions is okay, especially for beginners. Two points need to be noted:

1. Position management: Be willing to reduce positions at high points and don't be afraid to sell off because 99.9% of trading is about selling off. Only the main force can sell at the highest point! Only by reducing positions at high levels can there be room and courage to add positions during a decline!

2. Emotional management: Don't regret selling off. Being able to capture a segment of the market and make a profit is success. A great trader doesn't capture the entire trend; instead, they can make profits in each wave of the market. Repeatedly making profits in this way is the ultimate trading strategy!

Encouraging fellow traders and reminding myself!