Annuit coeptis
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Recession is real ? US Economy on edge of collapse.
18 November S&P 500 Crypto and Fear index reach it's lowest level.
Preliminary macroeconomic indicators show that the situation on the labor market is deteriorating. Number of people recieving unemployment benefits are growing 4 months in a row.
At the same time, the number of applications for unemployment benefits is growing.
At the same time, we see an increase in the price of assets that investors "flee" to during bad times and economic instability. Typically, such assets are gold and bonds. Short-term bond yields increased.
Price of gold was showing all time high two months ago, meaning that people who buy know about this situation already.
Another thing that confirms a possible recession is credit crunch.
Americans are at a high level of indebtedness, as evidenced by record total household debt ($18.59 trillion in the third quarter of 2025) and rapidly growing credit card debt. The household debt-to-GDP ratio in the US in the first quarter of 2025 was 68.30%. High inflation and interest rates are contributing to this situation, and 202 million Americans hold credit cards.
Total household debt: reached a historic high of $18.59 trillion in the third quarter of 2025.
Debt to GDP: was 68.30% in the first quarter of 2025.
The U.S. credit card debt balance rose to $1.23 trillion in the third quarter of 2025 from $1.21 trillion in the second quarter of 2025. The credit card debt balance in the United States averaged $0.81 trillion from 2003 to 2025, reaching an all-time high of $1.23 trillion in the third quarter of 2025 and a record low of $0.66 trillion in the first quarter of 2014.
The balance of mortgage loans outstanding in the United States rose to $13.07 trillion in the third quarter of 2025 from $12.94 trillion in the second quarter of 2025. The balance of mortgage loans outstanding in the United States averaged $8.98 trillion from 2003 to 2025, reaching an all-time high of $13.07 trillion in the third quarter of 2025 and a record low of $4.94 trillion in the first quarter of 2003.
Total household debt in the United States increased by $197 billion from the previous quarter and reached a new record high of $18.59 trillion in the third quarter of 2025. Mortgage loan balances increased by $137 billion to $13.07 trillion, while credit card balances increased by $24 billion to $1.23 trillion. Home equity line of credit (HELOC) balances increased by $11 billion to $422 billion. Student loan balances increased by $15 billion to $1.65 trillion. Auto loan balances remained stable at $1.66 trillion. The pace of mortgage originations increased, with new loans totaling $512 billion in the third quarter. "Household debt balances are growing at a moderate pace, while delinquency rates are stabilizing," said Donghoon Lee, an economic research consultant at the New York Federal Reserve. "Relatively low mortgage delinquency rates reflect the resilience of the housing market, driven by substantial home equity and strict lending standards."
P.S. With all this data, now i understand why BlackRock is selling #BTC , why holders of all crypto sold at at loss, why Artur Haise and other investors selling, and why DXY are growing after two cutting of rate...
Preliminary macroeconomic indicators show that the situation on the labor market is deteriorating. Number of people recieving unemployment benefits are growing 4 months in a row.
At the same time, the number of applications for unemployment benefits is growing.
At the same time, we see an increase in the price of assets that investors "flee" to during bad times and economic instability. Typically, such assets are gold and bonds. Short-term bond yields increased.
Price of gold was showing all time high two months ago, meaning that people who buy know about this situation already.
Another thing that confirms a possible recession is credit crunch.
Americans are at a high level of indebtedness, as evidenced by record total household debt ($18.59 trillion in the third quarter of 2025) and rapidly growing credit card debt. The household debt-to-GDP ratio in the US in the first quarter of 2025 was 68.30%. High inflation and interest rates are contributing to this situation, and 202 million Americans hold credit cards.
Total household debt: reached a historic high of $18.59 trillion in the third quarter of 2025.
Debt to GDP: was 68.30% in the first quarter of 2025.
The U.S. credit card debt balance rose to $1.23 trillion in the third quarter of 2025 from $1.21 trillion in the second quarter of 2025. The credit card debt balance in the United States averaged $0.81 trillion from 2003 to 2025, reaching an all-time high of $1.23 trillion in the third quarter of 2025 and a record low of $0.66 trillion in the first quarter of 2014.
The balance of mortgage loans outstanding in the United States rose to $13.07 trillion in the third quarter of 2025 from $12.94 trillion in the second quarter of 2025. The balance of mortgage loans outstanding in the United States averaged $8.98 trillion from 2003 to 2025, reaching an all-time high of $13.07 trillion in the third quarter of 2025 and a record low of $4.94 trillion in the first quarter of 2003.
Total household debt in the United States increased by $197 billion from the previous quarter and reached a new record high of $18.59 trillion in the third quarter of 2025. Mortgage loan balances increased by $137 billion to $13.07 trillion, while credit card balances increased by $24 billion to $1.23 trillion. Home equity line of credit (HELOC) balances increased by $11 billion to $422 billion. Student loan balances increased by $15 billion to $1.65 trillion. Auto loan balances remained stable at $1.66 trillion. The pace of mortgage originations increased, with new loans totaling $512 billion in the third quarter. "Household debt balances are growing at a moderate pace, while delinquency rates are stabilizing," said Donghoon Lee, an economic research consultant at the New York Federal Reserve. "Relatively low mortgage delinquency rates reflect the resilience of the housing market, driven by substantial home equity and strict lending standards."
P.S. With all this data, now i understand why BlackRock is selling #BTC , why holders of all crypto sold at at loss, why Artur Haise and other investors selling, and why DXY are growing after two cutting of rate...
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The authorities in Ukraine have long obliged citizens to switch to digital documents "Diya", "Oberig", "Rezerv+".
In Russia, citizens will be restricted from accessing the Internet at the direction of special services and authorities, while all Internet traffic is monitored, as well as messengers and social networks. We have been observing this all over the world for a long time.
At the same time, the dominance of stablecoins is growing compared to fiat money, and countries are switching to blockchain technologies, which can actually be disabled on the server. Your account, your wallet, your money can be blocked with one click.
Over the past year, we have seen how the USA, Russia, China, England, and some countries confiscate Bitcoins and imprison illegal miners. Large funds, crypto exchanges, and states have increased the volume of crypto assets. A validator who owns 51% of tokens can change the rules in the blockchain network. Most coins are now on the balance sheet. We have entered a new era. This is the era of digital prison, where a person who relies only on digital technologies owns nothing.
In Russia, citizens will be restricted from accessing the Internet at the direction of special services and authorities, while all Internet traffic is monitored, as well as messengers and social networks. We have been observing this all over the world for a long time.
At the same time, the dominance of stablecoins is growing compared to fiat money, and countries are switching to blockchain technologies, which can actually be disabled on the server. Your account, your wallet, your money can be blocked with one click.
Over the past year, we have seen how the USA, Russia, China, England, and some countries confiscate Bitcoins and imprison illegal miners. Large funds, crypto exchanges, and states have increased the volume of crypto assets. A validator who owns 51% of tokens can change the rules in the blockchain network. Most coins are now on the balance sheet. We have entered a new era. This is the era of digital prison, where a person who relies only on digital technologies owns nothing.
RSI heatmap, top 50, 4H
#usdc
š§ Circle CEO: We're building an "economic operating system" for the AI era.
Jeremy Allaire stated that crypto is moving to a new level ā transforming blockchain into a fully-fledged "economic operating system" for the internet.
The main idea is that money will become a platform. Not just a means of transfer, but a base layer for all internet applications and AI services.
Arc's blockchain should become the foundation for an on-chain economy, where businesses, banks, applications, and AI agents operate.
š§ Circle CEO: We're building an "economic operating system" for the AI era.
Jeremy Allaire stated that crypto is moving to a new level ā transforming blockchain into a fully-fledged "economic operating system" for the internet.
The main idea is that money will become a platform. Not just a means of transfer, but a base layer for all internet applications and AI services.
Arc's blockchain should become the foundation for an on-chain economy, where businesses, banks, applications, and AI agents operate.
š Bitcoin Diverges From Stock Market for First Time in Decade ā Bloomberg
The S&P 500 has risen 16% in 2025, while Bitcoin has fallen 3%. Such a divergence hasn't been seen since 2014.
Speculative capital, which typically fueled Bitcoin, is flowing into precious metals this year. Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have slowed noticeably, and new highs are only held for a few days.
The S&P 500 has risen 16% in 2025, while Bitcoin has fallen 3%. Such a divergence hasn't been seen since 2014.
Speculative capital, which typically fueled Bitcoin, is flowing into precious metals this year. Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have slowed noticeably, and new highs are only held for a few days.
#records
SV: Crypto ETF financial flows for yesterday.
ā«ļø#BTC = -$194,640,000.
ā«ļø#ETH = -$41,570,000.
ā«ļø#SOL = +$4,590,000.
ā«ļø#XRP = +$12,840,000 (14 consecutive green days).
ā«ļø#LINK, #DOGE, #HBAR, #LTC = no data or $0.
Net outflow from BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF over the past 5 weeks exceeded $2,700,000,000 ā a record.
SV: Crypto ETF financial flows for yesterday.
ā«ļø#BTC = -$194,640,000.
ā«ļø#ETH = -$41,570,000.
ā«ļø#SOL = +$4,590,000.
ā«ļø#XRP = +$12,840,000 (14 consecutive green days).
ā«ļø#LINK, #DOGE, #HBAR, #LTC = no data or $0.
Net outflow from BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF over the past 5 weeks exceeded $2,700,000,000 ā a record.
š³ Matrixport withdrew 3,805 BTC ($352 million) from Binance in the last 24 hours ā wallet
š¦¢ Michael Burry expects a major crash in the US stock market...
The legendary investor who predicted the 2008 crisis is sounding the alarm again. The US stock market could collapse more dramatically than during the dot-com crash of 2000.
Reasons:
ā Shares of tech giants and AI startups are unreasonably overpriced ā valuations don't reflect actual profits.
ā More than half of all US stocks are now in passive funds (ETFs and indices). This means there are fewer active investors in the market who analyze companies and can curb panic.
ā Nvidia, Palantir, and other "AI stars" have soared not because of actual results, but because of hype. When the hype subsides, it will hurt (AI bubble).
ā Some companies manipulate their financial statements to hide real problems.
ā Michael Burry sees parallels with past bubbles: the market is once again believing that the old rules of economics no longer apply.
ā If a market crash begins, we won't see a short correction, but a protracted decline that could last for years.
As a reminder, the film "The Big Short" was made based on Michael Burry's success story.
The legendary investor who predicted the 2008 crisis is sounding the alarm again. The US stock market could collapse more dramatically than during the dot-com crash of 2000.
Reasons:
ā Shares of tech giants and AI startups are unreasonably overpriced ā valuations don't reflect actual profits.
ā More than half of all US stocks are now in passive funds (ETFs and indices). This means there are fewer active investors in the market who analyze companies and can curb panic.
ā Nvidia, Palantir, and other "AI stars" have soared not because of actual results, but because of hype. When the hype subsides, it will hurt (AI bubble).
ā Some companies manipulate their financial statements to hide real problems.
ā Michael Burry sees parallels with past bubbles: the market is once again believing that the old rules of economics no longer apply.
ā If a market crash begins, we won't see a short correction, but a protracted decline that could last for years.
As a reminder, the film "The Big Short" was made based on Michael Burry's success story.
šŗšø The CFTC has authorized US exchanges to officially open spot cryptocurrency trading.
Large exchanges like Coinbase, Kraken, and Gemini can now become fully regulated by US standards. Spot cryptocurrency trading will begin under the supervision of the CFTC.
The exchanges now have a clear legal status, which should attract institutional investors.
Large exchanges like Coinbase, Kraken, and Gemini can now become fully regulated by US standards. Spot cryptocurrency trading will begin under the supervision of the CFTC.
The exchanges now have a clear legal status, which should attract institutional investors.
š Matrixport is accumulating Bitcoin ā 2805 BTC ($260 million) have been transferred from Binance to the company's wallets in the last 8 hours.
š #ASTER Aster has published a roadmap for the first half of 2026 ā watch it now
āŖ Q1 2026: Aster Chain blockchain launch, Aster Code for developers, and the addition of a simple fiat deposit/withdrawal method.
āŖ Q2 2026: Aster staking features will be added, voting on important issues will be implemented on the network, and copy trading will be launched.
āŖ December 2025: Aster Chain testnet launch, Shield Mode and TWAP smart orders will be introduced, and the RWA system will be updated.
āŖ Q1 2026: Aster Chain blockchain launch, Aster Code for developers, and the addition of a simple fiat deposit/withdrawal method.
āŖ Q2 2026: Aster staking features will be added, voting on important issues will be implemented on the network, and copy trading will be launched.
āŖ December 2025: Aster Chain testnet launch, Shield Mode and TWAP smart orders will be introduced, and the RWA system will be updated.
#SOL Revolut Bank Adds Support for Payments, Transfers, and Staking on the Solana Network ā Announcement
Revolut is the largest European neobank with 65,000,000 clients (15 million crypto accounts).
Revolut is the largest European neobank with 65,000,000 clients (15 million crypto accounts).
š„ Some sovereign wealth funds are actively buying BTC on the decline (BlackRock CEO)
"I know sovereign wealth funds bought more BTC at levels around $80,000. This is a long-term position, not a trade. You own Bitcoin for a specific purpose, but the market is skewed and heavily leveraged, so volatility will be higher."
"I know sovereign wealth funds bought more BTC at levels around $80,000. This is a long-term position, not a trade. You own Bitcoin for a specific purpose, but the market is skewed and heavily leveraged, so volatility will be higher."
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š¦š· Argentina's largest oil company, YPF, plans to begin accepting cryptocurrency payments at its gas stations.
The Argentine government owns approximately 51% of YPF's shares.
Potential crypto payment partners include Lemon, Ripio, and Binance. If the project is implemented, customers will be able to pay for fuel with cryptocurrency via QR codes on the pumps.
The Argentine government owns approximately 51% of YPF's shares.
Potential crypto payment partners include Lemon, Ripio, and Binance. If the project is implemented, customers will be able to pay for fuel with cryptocurrency via QR codes on the pumps.
Roskomnadzor has stepped up its fight against VPNs.
Roskomnadzor (the Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media) updated its threat countermeasures (TCM), which caused widespread VPN outages across the country. Three popular protocols were blocked: SOCKS5, VLESS, and L2TP.
What does this mean for users:
ā¢ Stable VPNs will perform worse.
ā¢ Protocols and servers will have to be updated more frequently.
ā¢ Bypassing blocking will become more expensive and difficult.
Furthermore, the agency has imposed restrictive measures against FaceTime.
Previously:
Digital prison
https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpos/32199067997009?r=KXPEBFGS&l=uk-UA&uco=0X4ffpFSbRafPRWukvmJWQ&uc=app_square_share_link&us=copylink
Roskomnadzor (the Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media) updated its threat countermeasures (TCM), which caused widespread VPN outages across the country. Three popular protocols were blocked: SOCKS5, VLESS, and L2TP.
What does this mean for users:
ā¢ Stable VPNs will perform worse.
ā¢ Protocols and servers will have to be updated more frequently.
ā¢ Bypassing blocking will become more expensive and difficult.
Furthermore, the agency has imposed restrictive measures against FaceTime.
Previously:
Digital prison
https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpos/32199067997009?r=KXPEBFGS&l=uk-UA&uco=0X4ffpFSbRafPRWukvmJWQ&uc=app_square_share_link&us=copylink
#hack #sol
ā Popular Android chip found to be flawed ā Solana smartphones at risk.
Ledger researchers hacked the MediaTek Dimensity 7300 using an electromagnetic attack, gaining full control of the device. The issue is in the boot ROM and cannot be fixed.
Key points:
ā¢ The vulnerability is embedded in the silicon itself and cannot be patched.
ā¢ The attack allows privilege escalation to the maximum level.
ā¢ Solana Seeker smartphones are equipped with the same chip and are vulnerable to the same hardware vulnerability.
ā¢ Storing private keys on smartphones with this chip is unsafe.
ā¢ Ledger reminds everyone that only secure-element chips in hardware wallets provide protection against such attacks.
ā Popular Android chip found to be flawed ā Solana smartphones at risk.
Ledger researchers hacked the MediaTek Dimensity 7300 using an electromagnetic attack, gaining full control of the device. The issue is in the boot ROM and cannot be fixed.
Key points:
ā¢ The vulnerability is embedded in the silicon itself and cannot be patched.
ā¢ The attack allows privilege escalation to the maximum level.
ā¢ Solana Seeker smartphones are equipped with the same chip and are vulnerable to the same hardware vulnerability.
ā¢ Storing private keys on smartphones with this chip is unsafe.
ā¢ Ledger reminds everyone that only secure-element chips in hardware wallets provide protection against such attacks.
ā¹ļø Donald Trump's son will profit from the Pentagon.
The US Department of War has awarded $620 million to Vulcan Elements, a little-known company involved in rare earth metals and magnet production.
āļøKey detail:
The startup received investment from 1789 Capital, a fund led by Donald Trump Jr., just three months before the deal.
Key facts about the deal:
ā¢ Vulcan Elements has only about 30 employees, but it received the largest loan in the history of the Pentagon's Strategic Capital Office.
ā¢ This is the fourth company backed by 1789 Capital to receive federal funds in 2025. The total amount is more than $735 million.
ā¢ Vulcan Elements and the Department of Defense claim that Trump Jr.'s fund was not involved in the negotiations and that the decision was made on merit.
ā¢ The funding is part of a massive $1.4 billion deal to develop rare earth magnet supply chains within the US.
The US Department of War has awarded $620 million to Vulcan Elements, a little-known company involved in rare earth metals and magnet production.
āļøKey detail:
The startup received investment from 1789 Capital, a fund led by Donald Trump Jr., just three months before the deal.
Key facts about the deal:
ā¢ Vulcan Elements has only about 30 employees, but it received the largest loan in the history of the Pentagon's Strategic Capital Office.
ā¢ This is the fourth company backed by 1789 Capital to receive federal funds in 2025. The total amount is more than $735 million.
ā¢ Vulcan Elements and the Department of Defense claim that Trump Jr.'s fund was not involved in the negotiations and that the decision was made on merit.
ā¢ The funding is part of a massive $1.4 billion deal to develop rare earth magnet supply chains within the US.
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