Mr-Zhusang

2026.6.29 #btc
The weekend range-bound choppy action lasted two days, with wicks up and down on the daily chart. The weekly K closed bearish, and the daily chart also closed with a wick. If there is another sharp drop this week, it could become an opportunity to buy the dips. A negative headline is not necessarily a bad thing. It would be best if the price can form a wick on the weekly chart; the daily chart clearly shows signs of repeated attempts at a bottom. Although the trend is still bearish, the worst time is also when opportunities come. Even though that sea area is still filled with gunfire, the market can’t keep falling just because of these two fools. As long as it’s not destruction, their emotions will gradually fade. For BTC: focus mainly on buying the dip after a sharp selloff, with taking short positions on rallies as a secondary strategy. On Monday, market volatility will increase. Judging from the daily chart, it shows signs of beginning to build a base, but the overall trend still appears bearish; bottoming out takes time. On the downside, capital is rushing in to accumulate and quickly recover. The daily/weekly/monthly moving averages are all at the bottom; the half-day line has already begun trending bullish. Wait for a resonance during a larger timeframe cycle.
Support: 58800-59000, 58030, 57200-57600. Resistance: 60000-60200, 60500-61000

2026.6.28 #btc
Daily line bottom divergence! Daily line bottom divergence! Daily line bottom divergence! Bullish?

2026.6.27 #btc
Yesterday they started fighting again. Iran is still dreaming of making the international straits a long-term source of paid fees. Such behavior is no different from a robber’s. Being beaten is only to be expected. The worst part is that the newly signed agreement isn’t even dry yet and is already about to become scrap paper. A more hawkish statement by a Federal Reserve official is meant to suppress risk assets. We’ve returned to the state of consecutive declines accompanied by bad news nonstop. These are also tricks commonly used by international speculators. The cycle is running; the daily, weekly, and monthly trends will all enter their bottoms. In the coming period, there’s a high probability of a truly strong counterattack.
Bitcoin (BTC): Range-bound consolidation, repeatedly confirming the bottom. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently continued to see net outflows. The MACD bearish momentum histogram is still releasing, and the downside momentum has not yet exhausted. Still in a downtrend; the EMA moving-average system is in a bearish arrangement, and price is under pressure from the EMA15 and EMA30. If it breaks below 56801, the liquidation force of accumulated longs on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.464 billion. When longs are liquidated, that’s when people build new long positions. As the cycle runs, the day/week/month are at their bottoms; watch the longs’ moves. If there’s a sharp drop, look for low-buy long setups. Be mindful of the formation of big-timeframe confluence. Support: 58800-59200. Resistance: 60400-60600, 61300-61800

2026.6.26 #btc
Yesterday, U.S. stocks’ Nasdaq opened higher and then plunged, with an intraday amplitude of nearly 2.5%, dealing a heavy blow to the market. The main issue was a cascading avalanche in high-priced tech stocks. Although later there was some consolidation and rebound, the rebound was weak. The crypto market also saw a nonstop selloff, falling during the past hour by an amount equal to two days of gains. Today, when the Asian markets opened, stock markets across the board collapsed. Basically, there’s no good sign. Once the tech bubble bursts, the market will start dumping aggressively. The market was already trending bearish; whenever a piece of bad news hits, it often goes into a “free-fall” within a minute. For BTC: After consecutive declines, it will likely consolidate and rebound, but overall the trend remains bearish. After the rebound, look to short. The strength of the rebound should be judged by the 1-hour resistance pressure. However, note that support below has also reached a key level. Today’s volatility will increase. Two key points: whether 58500–58800 can be held is crucial. This is the most important bulls’ line of defense right now. If it breaks, it will open up room for more downside.

2026.6.25 #btc
Trump said yesterday that Iran charging for the strait is unacceptable, which could spark new confrontations, causing the crypto market to dive hard. Although there was a recovery, such extreme volatility led to massive liquidations. Bitcoin and Ethereum have returned to pre-liberation levels. Currently, looking at the daily timeframe, we’re still in a strong bearish trend. This morning, we’ve managed to repair to the 30-minute resistance. We’re experiencing slight fluctuations. Even if we recover, hitting 1 to 2 hours is the maximum resistance, and breaking through will be tough. Bitcoin: overall bearish; after today’s repair, I’m still leaning bearish. Prices have dropped below all EMA lines, showing a bearish arrangement. MACD green bars are widening, indicating released bearish momentum. RSI and other indicators are nearing the oversold zone, showing potential for a double bottom, but stabilization hasn’t been confirmed yet. Waiting for a retest to confirm that it doesn’t break can open a long position. After the 4-hour spike, there’s a bullish signal.

2026.6.24 #btc
Yesterday, influenced by the global stock markets, the crypto space also kicked into flood mode. With the US stocks opening significantly down at night to digest the bad news, there wasn't a massive plunge, and the market started a weak recovery. By this morning, Bitcoin had completed its 1-hour recovery and is nearing the neckline, facing considerable resistance. Ethereum only completed its 30-minute recovery. The overall market remains in a bearish trend. The Fed's hawkish shift: the median interest rate forecast in the dot plot was raised from 3.4% to 3.8%, with 9 officials expecting a rate hike this year.
Bitcoin: range-bound trading, high sell and low buy. Today, we will first check the recovery strength; key levels are unlikely to hold without a pullback. End-of-month options expiration pressure: $10.6 billion in quarterly options are about to expire. Head and shoulders pattern confirmed: the 4-hour chart has broken the neckline, with bearish moving averages in alignment. MACD continues to expand: DIF and DEA crossed downwards and are diverging, indicating that bearish momentum has not exhausted. Approaching the oversold zone, there may be a technical rebound in the short term, but this is not a trend reversal signal.

2026.6.23 #brc
After a big uptrend on Monday, momentum is lacking, leading to a pullback with a long upper wick on the daily chart. As mentioned in the night session analysis, we are currently in a 1-hour adjustment phase. The 1 and 2-hour adjustments are nearing their end; if we see a sharp drop and a retest, it could be a good entry for long positions. The 12-hour chart remains in a bullish cycle, so there's still an expectation for an upward breakout today. The 4-hour shows neutral oscillation, while the 6 and 8-hour charts indicate a bearish cycle. The lack of consensus suggests continued volatility. Overall, the market remains weak.
Bitcoin: Range-bound oscillation. There's a chance for another push against resistance today, but relying purely on market behavior (without news catalysts) makes a breakout less likely. BTC funding rates have jumped to 7% (a three-week high), boosting bullish confidence; however, the options market shows put/call premiums exceeding 2x, indicating traders are actively seeking downside protection. The coexistence of these factors highlights significant market divergence. In the last 24 hours, there have been liquidations totaling $326 million across the board, affecting both longs and shorts. In summary, focus on low longs as the 1-hour adjustment completes, then look to range trade before entering higher shorts at resistance.

2026.6.22 #btc
Last week’s weekly chart closed with an upper wick, indicating weakness in upward momentum, leading to a pullback! The market itself lacks sufficient liquidity and often relies on geopolitical news, economic meetings, and such to spark its ups and downs. However, a closer look reveals that news, especially those that are just hot air without any substance, hardly change the existing trend and structure. Today is Monday, and market volatility might increase, but there’s currently no clear direction.
Bitcoin: Bearish consolidation structure. The 63500 level has become a solid support zone; as long as we don’t break below this level during a pullback, the drop won't expand further, with lows and highs rising in sync. Right now, we’re only looking for a bounce, not a reversal.

2026.6.21 #btc
Today marks the close of the third week of June, and the weekly chart still shows signs of a bottoming pattern. The daily chart has room for adjustment in both space and time. On the 15-minute, 8-hour, and 12-hour charts, we’re still in an upward cycle, while the other intraday cycles are in a downtrend. The Fed's hawkish stance on June 17 suggests a potential rate hike in 2026, putting overall pressure on risk assets. Mining costs are around $78,000, significantly higher than the current coin price, which may lead miners to face losses and trigger sell-offs. In the past 24 hours, approximately $600 million in long contracts have been liquidated, indicating potential for sharp short-term volatility.
Bitcoin: Range-bound oscillation. Today may see a rise followed by a drop. Both bulls and bears have opportunities, but there’s no clear trend at the moment, and the cycles are not uniform, so it's prudent to wait for significant market moves before making a play. The volatility range may widen, and sudden spikes or drops will clearly reflect liquidity issues. The market can be highly volatile due to various news distractions.
Support: 63200-63700, 62000-62500; Resistance: 64600-65000, 65600-66200

2026.6.20 #btc
Yesterday, both the US and Chinese stock markets were closed, and the crypto market is showing weak recovery. Currently, we're at high levels on the 1 and 2-hour charts, with 4, 6, 8, and 12-hour candles indicating a bullish cycle. There are opportunities on both sides. After the 1-hour pullback is done, we can go long; if we spike high, we can still go short, but there's heavy resistance above. There's been ongoing hype about a peace agreement, but the reality is that there's no trust in what is being said. The pressure is real, and liquidity issues won't change in the short term. The Fed is maintaining high rates and has removed guidance on rate cuts, leading the market to even reprice for potential rate hikes by the end of the year. In this high-rate environment, Bitcoin, as a zero-yield asset, continues to face pressure.
Bitcoin: Showing bearish consolidation. It's in a range between 63500-64900, with repeated shakeouts. Sell-side depth shows dense order stacking above 63500, with significant selling pressure; the daily moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, and the MACD maintains a death cross below the zero line, confirming the bearish structure.
Support: 62300, 61500-62000, Resistance: 64200, 64500, 65000

2026.6.19 #btc
After the Nasdaq filled the weekly gap, it surged strongly yesterday by about 2%. The daily cycle in the crypto market is at the top; even though it's rebounding with the Nasdaq, the space and momentum are lacking. This rise is likely just a new high before a top forms. The Fed's June meeting released 'hawkish' signals, and with continuous net outflows from ETFs, risk assets are under pressure overall. The daily chart has formed a 'three black crows' bearish pattern, with prices sitting below major moving averages, and the rebound strength is weak.
BTC: Short on the highs. The smaller time frames have clearly shown a tiered bearish structure, with shorts dominating the weak trend. Until there's an effective breakout and consolidation above the 63800-64300 zone, any rebound should be viewed as short-term. We need to closely watch the validity of the 62000 support level. During the rebound, trading volume continues to shrink, indicating insufficient bullish support, and the bearish dominance remains unchanged.

2026.6.18 #btc
The Nasdaq filled the weekly gap yesterday, closing with two consecutive bearish candles, which also dragged the crypto market down for two days. The daily cycle of the crypto market is already at the top, and any upward movement is likely to just create a new high before hitting resistance. Bitcoin has retraced about 50% from its historical high of $126,000 and is currently in a deep mid-term correction. ETFs have seen net outflows for five weeks, but the speed has significantly slowed down, with several institutions accumulating positions against the trend in the $60,000 range. Macroeconomic factors like the FOMC meeting are increasing short-term volatility. Yesterday, oil also experienced a V-shaped reversal but then dropped again; 'when oil prices fall, everything thrives.' If oil prices rise, the market falls.
Bitcoin: Short on the highs. The smaller timeframes clearly show a step-down bearish structure. Looking at the 1, 2, and 4-hour charts, there is some expectation of a bounce, but the 8 and 12-hour charts are in a typical bearish cycle, with daily charts also showing signs of forming a top. Accumulating long positions at lower levels is supplementary; volatility has increased recently, and a clear trend hasn't formed yet. The $64,700-$65,000 range aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels and Elliott Wave correction structures.

2026.6.17 #btc
After the daily chart accelerated, we're entering a high-level consolidation phase, and the sentiment around the protocol is waning. The market is now in a free-for-all phase. However, the daily cycle still has a chance for another push. Today's dip was followed by a rebound, but as the saying goes, it won’t happen more than three times; we’re likely to see the peak of this round of retracement. The market is reacting to the protocol developments, with $300 billion set to be unfrozen, and Iran is also signaling a willingness to befriend the U.S. Lots of love declarations are boosting the bullish sentiment. Pay close attention to the split in the altcoin market; the altcoin is mainly influenced by exchange rates. We've seen a reversal in trends over the past few days.
Bitcoin: High-level consolidation. We’ll attempt to push against resistance; if we can’t break through, we might see a pullback. In the 1, 2, and 4-hour cycles, we’re seeing upward movement, while the 6, 8, and 12-hour cycles are trending down. The 4-hour Bollinger middle band (65477) is the core support line for bulls; if we hold that, the rebound structure remains intact. The fear and greed index is at just 23 (extreme fear), and derivatives data shows traders are skeptical, casting doubt on the sustainability of any short-term bounce. The 4-hour range is tightening, and volatility is being compressed, making it tough to break into a one-sided trend.

2026.6.16 #btc
Yesterday, the market was pushed to the limit, with Bitcoin breaking through 66000 and 67000, while Ethereum cleared 1700 and 1800. The overall bearish sentiment remains unchanged.
The biggest event today is Japan's interest rate hike. The key figure, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, suddenly fell 'ill.' This could potentially push rates up to 1%. The last time things got this aggressive was in 1990, when U.S. sanctions caused a 2-month rate hike that led to Japan's economic collapse and a 30-year recession. This time, with similar circumstances surrounding the Tohoku sanctions, could we see a 'black swan'? Let's wait and see. The market this time seems to be a rebound after an oversold condition, and daily charts have accelerated to reach high levels. Today, the strategy is to short at high points.
Bitcoin: Short on the highs. Yesterday, the rise in Bitcoin was less than half of that for Ethereum, which is quite a disparity. The 4-hour MACD has peaked, and the red bars have significantly shortened, indicating a clear decline in bullish momentum. At the same time, the funding rate dropped 86% to 0.00012, while short positions actually increased by 12%, reflecting a cautious speculative sentiment in the market. After the acceleration on the daily chart, it's going to be tough to push higher.

2026.6.15 #btc
Trump's tweet sent the market soaring with a bullish candlestick. On the surface, the agreement seems to have been reached, and even temporary peace has a significant stimulative effect on the market, which has been suppressed for too long. However, it's essential to note that this rally is more about sentiment than solid long positions backed by capital allocation. The technical correction has been ongoing for four consecutive days. The daily chart is also expected to hit high levels in the next couple of days. Mid-term structure (1-4 weeks): The overall trend remains bearish, with the MACD still below the zero line and no bullish crossover. The 11/14 moving averages are giving bearish signals.
BTC: Let's wait for a solid support test before heading upwards. Over the past 14 trading days, there has been a net outflow of over $4.4 billion, with institutional funds continuously pulling back, shaking the logic of core incremental funds that fueled the bull market in the first half of the year. Although SpaceX's disclosure of holding approximately $1.293 billion in Bitcoin has provided a short-term confidence boost, the pause in ETF outflows represents a more genuine mid-term warming signal.
Last week, total demand for BTC dropped to -652,000, marking the largest decline since January 2022, with the price drop stemming from a lack of demand rather than panic selling.
The percentage of circulating profitable Bitcoin holdings is approaching the historical threshold of 45%, which historically corresponds to a market sentiment low. At the same time, the Puell Multiple has fallen to 0.74, putting pressure on miner revenues, which is typically seen as an early signal that the market is nearing its bottom.

2026.6.14 #btc
The market has been in a continuous recovery for three days without a pullback since the rise, basically maintaining above the 1-hour support. Yesterday, support has been holding above the 15-minute mark, showing some acceleration, but it's still a volume-less uptick. This round of rebound has been driven by easing geopolitical tensions (expectations around the US-Iran agreement) and improved ETF fund inflows, with Bitcoin bouncing back over 8% from the low of 59,000. The 24-hour trading volume has increased, reflecting the fierce battle between bulls and bears at these high levels. US bond yields have hit historical highs, with a 60% chance of rate hikes by year-end, continuously putting pressure on risk appetite. Moreover, ETF funds have seen an outflow of $2.1 billion in June, which remains a looming concern over the market.

2026.6.13 #BTC
The largest IPO in human history went live yesterday, soaring by 19%. Musk holds 42% of the shares, corresponding to a market cap of $866.5 billion. With his Tesla shares included, Musk is set to become the world's first trillionaire. This grand feast is backed by funds flowing out of other markets into this one. Yesterday, the US stock market overall rose, maintaining a bullish structure. Bitcoin: Extreme panic sentiment is still in control, with the fear index remaining at very low levels; the recent 24-hour high of 64,300 and low of 62,800 form a "pressure on top, support on the bottom" narrow range; both bulls and bears have established a defensive agreement above 63,000, but if that level breaks, the next effective defense zone will retreat to around 61,000. The range between 63,300 and 64,300 is a typical consumption area for both bulls and bears—lacking incremental funds and volume support, it's hard to see a one-sided trend. It's more prudent to approach this with a high short and low long strategy.

2026.6.11 #btc
Global markets, led by the US stocks, have kicked off a downtrend. Yesterday, US markets took another hit, with the three major indices dropping nearly 2%, marking two consecutive days of heavy losses. It feels like a storm is brewing. Whether this is just a test of risks or a genuine downturn remains to be seen. Today, Asian markets opened lower but managed to recover a bit, while the crypto market didn’t dive deep yesterday, holding steady near previous lows. Given the sharp declines we've seen recently and the recent hype around the SpaceX IPO being wrapped up, the market's vitality is starting to bounce back. That said, bullish momentum is still weak, and bears are in control. The 1-2 hour charts haven't shown any sign of a bullish trend.

2026.6.10 #BTC
The market has been stuck at the 4-hour resistance, struggling to break through, while the support below has just been confirmed. Last night, the NASDAQ went wild, opening high and creating the illusion of a rally before plummeting, with a swing of nearly 5% from high to low—this kind of volatility is seriously destructive. However, the crypto space hasn't followed suit with a significant dip and hasn't made new lows. The AI narrative in the stock market is just a big bubble, and there's a clear intention for funds to retreat from the highs. Plus, with the Japanese stock market hitting new highs and the rapid depreciation of the yen showing false prosperity, market risks are brewing quickly.
CPI data is the core variable: once the data drops, nearly all positions close to the front will likely become invalid.
BTC and ETH are seeing diverging capital flows: BTC ETFs are experiencing continuous outflows, while ETH ETFs are seeing net inflows. This disparity amplifies market uncertainty, and we shouldn't mix strategies for the two.
Sentiment is in extreme fear (index at 15), which historically can sometimes signal a bottom, but whether the current market sentiment can truly reverse depends on the CPI and macro capital flows providing confirmation signals.