2026.6.18 #btc
The Nasdaq filled the weekly gap yesterday, closing with two consecutive bearish candles, which also dragged the crypto market down for two days. The daily cycle of the crypto market is already at the top, and any upward movement is likely to just create a new high before hitting resistance. Bitcoin has retraced about 50% from its historical high of $126,000 and is currently in a deep mid-term correction. ETFs have seen net outflows for five weeks, but the speed has significantly slowed down, with several institutions accumulating positions against the trend in the $60,000 range. Macroeconomic factors like the FOMC meeting are increasing short-term volatility. Yesterday, oil also experienced a V-shaped reversal but then dropped again; 'when oil prices fall, everything thrives.' If oil prices rise, the market falls.
Bitcoin: Short on the highs. The smaller timeframes clearly show a step-down bearish structure. Looking at the 1, 2, and 4-hour charts, there is some expectation of a bounce, but the 8 and 12-hour charts are in a typical bearish cycle, with daily charts also showing signs of forming a top. Accumulating long positions at lower levels is supplementary; volatility has increased recently, and a clear trend hasn't formed yet. The $64,700-$65,000 range aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels and Elliott Wave correction structures.
The Nasdaq filled the weekly gap yesterday, closing with two consecutive bearish candles, which also dragged the crypto market down for two days. The daily cycle of the crypto market is already at the top, and any upward movement is likely to just create a new high before hitting resistance. Bitcoin has retraced about 50% from its historical high of $126,000 and is currently in a deep mid-term correction. ETFs have seen net outflows for five weeks, but the speed has significantly slowed down, with several institutions accumulating positions against the trend in the $60,000 range. Macroeconomic factors like the FOMC meeting are increasing short-term volatility. Yesterday, oil also experienced a V-shaped reversal but then dropped again; 'when oil prices fall, everything thrives.' If oil prices rise, the market falls.
Bitcoin: Short on the highs. The smaller timeframes clearly show a step-down bearish structure. Looking at the 1, 2, and 4-hour charts, there is some expectation of a bounce, but the 8 and 12-hour charts are in a typical bearish cycle, with daily charts also showing signs of forming a top. Accumulating long positions at lower levels is supplementary; volatility has increased recently, and a clear trend hasn't formed yet. The $64,700-$65,000 range aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels and Elliott Wave correction structures.