CoinRank

The 2025 market has shifted into a structural reset where speculation fades and real liquidity concentrates in AI, RWA, and perpetual derivatives.
Speakers agreed this is not the start of a bear market but a filtration phase that rewards products with utility, infrastructure depth, and verifiable data layers.

 

Competitiveness now depends on modular architecture rather than narrative chasing.
Projects that can integrate AI, RWA, DePIN or new themes without rewriting their core stack are positioned to outlast short narrative cycles. Adaptability, interoperability, and user-centric design become decisive advantages.

Narrative tops appear when capital flows diverge from sentiment—money exits while hype remains high.
VC rotation, whale flows, onchain activity, and retention metrics are stronger leading indicators than price or social sentiment. Liquidity and usage tell the truth long before influencers admit the trend is over.

A CYCLE STILL ALIVE OR JUST THE ECHO OF ONE

 

At a joint space hosted by CoinRank and BINANCE Square, the conversation opened with a question that has hovered over every builder trader and analyst through late 2025: are we still in a bull market or merely experiencing the lingering echo of one? Prices reached record highs earlier in the year before sliding into broad consolidation. Liquidity never fully disappeared yet conviction clearly changed shape. The panel’s responses painted a market no longer driven by reflexive euphoria but by structural realignments that hint at an ecosystem maturing under pressure.

 

Across YamaSwap GreenX Cwallet WebKey and UBX the consensus emerged quickly. This is not the collapse phase of a cycle. It is the period where inflated narratives deflate and real participants reorganize capital around fundamentals. Builders framed it less as a downturn and more as a reset that filters noise strengthens infrastructure and defines the next phase of growth.

 

WHEN A MARKET COOLS BUT DOESN’T BREAK

 

For YamaSwap this moment marks a structural cooldown rather than a directional reversal. Retail speculation has thinned but the demand for simplicity and intelligent tools has grown. YamaSwap positions itself in that gap. Its AI driven DTF architecture is built to detect when narratives begin and when they exhaust themselves allowing portfolios to adjust before sentiment peaks. Even in volatility one constant remains: people always seek simple ways to manage complexity.

 

GreenX approached the question from an institutional lens. To them the consolidation is a predictable outcome of a macro environment where cheap capital evaporated and real yield reasserted dominance. What follows is a pruning phase where weak actors disappear and durable infrastructure absorbs talent and liquidity. Rising interest rates revived the value of tokenized treasuries and private credit steering attention toward real cash flows instead of momentum. GreenX sees this as the beginning of a utility driven maturation not the end of a cycle.

 

Cwallet echoed this perspective. Recently rebranded into a multifunctional trading stack blending CeFi familiarity with DeFi autonomy the team views consolidation as healthy compression. After years of hype users now demand execution risk management and product depth. Their expansion into perpetual futures virtual spending cards principal protected earn tools and leveraged prediction markets all reflects a belief that utility not slogans will carry the next cycle.

 

WebKey’s framing centered on identity and infrastructure. Liquidity is rotating from noise to verifiable data from speculation to devices contributing to decentralized proof networks. User behavior shows a shift toward security stable returns hardware backed trust layers and AI assisted interfaces. To them this is not an exit from the market but a strategic accumulation period.

 

UBX offered a trader’s vantage point. Rather than fear or capitulation the exchange sees rotation. Capital is flowing away from high-flying tokens toward protocols with sustainable mechanics and deep liquidity. Derivatives remain highly active a reliable signal that participants are not retreating but repositioning.

 

Taken together the panel agreed on one thing: the market isn’t dying. It is reorganizing.

 

WHICH NARRATIVES STILL HOLD REAL LIQUIDITY

 

Some narratives are deflating. Others are absorbing capital. The contrast between them reveals where money actually resides in 2025.

 

Perpetuals and onchain derivatives remain one of the strongest gravitational centers. As traders demand transparency leverage and execution precision these products continue to scale. Platforms offering hybrid trading stacks or non custodial derivatives infrastructure are seeing deep retention and steady inflows.

 

RWA has become another magnet. Not for speculative reasons but because it creates a compliant bridge between trillions of traditional assets and programmable liquidity. Unlike past cycles RWA’s growth is anchored in real yield treasury flows and institutional mandates. Liquidity here is sticky because it originates from investors who value stability over virality.

 

AI however sits in a split position. On one hand agent models onchain inference and autonomous trading protocols draw huge attention. On the other narratives built solely on “AI tokens” without real utility are cooling rapidly. Capital is discriminating not exiting.

 

The Bitcoin ecosystem—especially Layer 2 experiments and ordinals—retains cyclical interest yet liquidity remains modest until clearer applications emerge. The panel sees potential but not sustained inflow yet.

 

DePIN and intelligent hardware infrastructures are beginning to command respect. WebKey emphasized this strongly. As devices become verifiable nodes feeding compute identity and energy data into onchain economies deep integration between AI and hardware is attracting real builders and early institutional curiosity.

 

Across all perspectives two themes consistently held the strongest liquidity: RWA and perpetual derivatives. Both are tied to structural value rather than temporary excitement.

 

WHEN NARRATIVES SHIFT FASTER THAN PRODUCTS

 

The AMA turned to a question every founder silently battles: how can projects stay competitive when narratives change faster than development cycles?

 

YamaSwap responded with a strategy rooted in adaptability. Their AI engine tracks sentiment inflection points enabling the protocol to shift before narratives peak while the product’s modular design lets new asset classes plug in instantly. The goal is not to chase trends but to stay structurally ahead of them.

 

GreenX emphasized discipline. Overpromising fuels short term attention but destroys long term trust. Projects that anchor themselves to timeless problems—liquidity identity compliance yield and capital efficiency—remain relevant regardless of market fashion.

 

WebKey argued that architectural flexibility is the only real antidote to narrative volatility. If a protocol needs six months to integrate a new sector it has already lost the race. Their hardware and data network is built to integrate AI RWA DePIN or gaming sectors without rewriting its core. In a market where narratives rotate every quarter interoperability is strategy.

 

UBX added a BD perspective: agility is essential but identity must remain intact. Projects that chase narratives collapse. Projects that understand when to adapt and when to hold their position survive across cycles.

 

The unspoken consensus was clear. In crypto the greatest competitive edge is not speed. It is structural adaptability.

 

FOLLOWING THE SIGNALS: HOW TO KNOW A NARRATIVE HAS PEAKED

 

A narrative peaks when price sentiment and user metrics detach from each other.

 

YamaSwap described it simply: when price goes parabolic but new users stop arriving the story is done.

 

GreenX pointed to divergences between price and onchain activity—addresses volume and network utilization. When social sentiment becomes euphoric while fundamentals stall and capital quietly rotates out the peak is already behind us.

 

WebKey tracks retention usage and device level engagement across its network. When users flatten but volumes spike speculation has overwhelmed participation. Their conclusion: follow the money and follow the usage.

 

UBX confirmed this through derivatives data. When liquidity migrates to stables or rotates into new sectors even as social hype lingers the exit has begun.

 

Cwallet combines all three indicators in its internal dashboards: capital stagnation decaying user activity and sentiment inflation. When all three misalign the narrative is over.

 

Across all views liquidity—not tweets—tells the truth.

 

IF YOU COULD BET ON ONE SECTOR

 

Asked to choose only one sector for the next 6 to 12 months the panel delivered a spectrum of conviction but the center of gravity was unmistakable.

 

Cwallet chose perpetuals and onchain derivatives. User demand for transparency non custodial control and leverage efficiency is accelerating.

 

YamaSwap chose the AI × infrastructure merge particularly AI agents coordinating through fast settlement networks.

 

GreenX chose decentralized AI infrastructure as the counterweight to centralized AI power. They believe it addresses one of the largest technological risks of the decade and will attract both capital and talent.

 

WebKey chose the convergence of DePIN and AI—intelligent infrastructure built on compute connectivity and verifiable data from real devices.

 

UBX chose AI integrated infrastructure and foundational crypto rails. In every past cycle the biggest winners were the tools everyone else eventually built on top of.

 

Although framed differently all answers shared one root: AI-driven infrastructure will define the next period of growth.

 

WHAT COULD TRIGGER THE NEXT EXPANSION PHASE INTO 2026

 

Looking ahead to 2026 the catalysts became clearer through their diversity.

 

Cwallet cited hybrid finance platforms regulatory clarity and seamless cross chain composability—unlocking a unified financial layer for users.

 

YamaSwap emphasized two forces: clear regulation unlocking institutional liquidity and AI agents becoming autonomous economic actors executing trades tasks and strategies at machine speed.

 

GreenX pointed to institutional capital regulatory maturity and robust infrastructure. Once stablecoin standards solidify and global reporting frameworks tighten transparency capital will scale into tokenized markets with intent rather than experimentation.

 

WebKey framed it as integration and trust. When consumer devices banks and national digital identity systems become Web3 native and regulators signal confidence institutional inflows will dwarf everything seen before.

 

UBX concluded with a similar view: mass integration improved user experience and real utility across Bitcoin AI and RWA verticals will drive the next sustainable bull cycle.

 

None of these catalysts resemble meme seasons or opportunistic liquidity mining. The next phase will not be accidental. It will be engineered by infrastructure maturity institutional participation and AI-driven automation.

 

CLOSING THOUGHTS: A MARKET THAT IS NOT DYING BUT EVOLVING

 

The AMA ended where it began—with uncertainty. Yet the uncertainty felt different. Not the fear of collapse but the ambiguity of transition. The market is not breaking; it is reorganizing around deeper structures stricter fundamentals and more serious participants.

 

Narratives fade but infrastructure compounds. Speculation cools but utility hardens. And beneath the noise something sturdier is taking shape.

 

If 2025 was the year the market stopped rising, 2026 may be the year it starts maturing.

 

CoinRank’s Rocky closed the night with a reminder: uncertainty brings opportunity. And in this market the opportunity is shifting from hype to architecture.

〈CoinRank AMA: Bull Market Peak — or Just the Beginning?〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。

U.S. Vice President posted earlier on social media saying there were rumors that the European Commission planned to fine X hundreds of millions of dollars for not participating in content censorship. He stated that the EU should support free speech rather than attack an American company over “some garbage.”

Musk later reposted the message and said, “Much appreciated.”

C2C trading offers flexibility – Users control pricing, counterparties, and payment methods, making it an appealing alternative to centralized exchanges.

 

Security features matter – Escrow services, identity verification, and regular updates help minimize fraud risks in C2C transactions.

 

Beware of scams – Fake payments, chargebacks, and phishing are common in C2C trading. Always verify payments and use trusted platforms.

Learn about C2C crypto trading – a peer-to-peer method to buy and sell crypto directly. Discover the advantages, risks, and key safety measures to protect your assets.

 

C2C transactions are becoming increasingly popular among crypto traders. However, like any form of trading, C2C transactions carry potential risks. 

 

Understanding these risks can help traders minimize losses, gain a better grasp of the transaction process, and enhance overall security and experience.

 

WHAT IS C2C?

 

C2C (Customer-to-Customer or Consumer-to-Consumer) transactions represent a “peer-to-peer” business model that enables individuals to trade directly without the need for a centralized platform.

 

In C2C crypto trading, users buy and sell cryptocurrencies directly with each other, bypassing third parties or intermediaries. 

 

Unlike trading on a CEX, where exchanges facilitate the process, C2C transactions involve individual buyers and sellers. 

 

Typically, both parties connect through a third-party platform that helps match them for transactions. 

 

These C2C platforms often feature classified ads or auction systems, allowing sellers to list products or cryptocurrencies, while buyers can either purchase directly or place bids.

 

As the crypto market continues to evolve, C2C trading is becoming an increasingly popular method, offering traders greater flexibility and more trading opportunities.

 

>>> More to read: Crypto Risks 101 | Beginner’s Guide

C2C ADVANTAGES & DISADVANTAGES

 

📌 Advantages of C2C Trading

 

✎ Global Market

One of the key advantages of using local C2C Bitcoin exchanges is the ability to access a global market of cryptocurrency buyers and sellers. 

 

Some C2C platforms operate in hundreds of countries, allowing users to trade crypto with individuals worldwide in just minutes.

 

✎ Multiple Payment Methods

Traditional exchanges may offer limited payment options compared to C2C platforms. 

 

For example, Binance C2C supports over 700 payment methods, including in-person cash payments. 

 

This flexibility benefits users who prefer face-to-face transactions or lack access to bank accounts.

 

✎ Zero Trading Fees for Takers

While some crypto exchanges charge fixed fees or percentage-based commissions per trade, others allow users to connect and trade without fees. 

 

Always review the terms before using a C2C exchange to ensure you understand the fee structure.

 

✎ Secure Transactions via Escrow

Many C2C exchanges utilize escrow services to safeguard both buyers and sellers. 

 

With escrow, the exchange holds the funds until both parties fulfill the agreed terms, minimizing the risk of fraud. 

 

If the buyer fails to make the payment within a specified time frame, the crypto is returned to the seller’s wallet.

 

✎ Customized Offers

Sellers have full control over pricing, exchange rates, payment methods, and the amount of crypto they wish to sell per transaction. 

 

Similarly, buyers can determine their preferred purchase price and payment method. Transactions occur as long as both parties agree to the terms.

📌 Disadvantages of C2C Trading

 

✎ Slower Transaction Speeds

Although C2C trades can be completed instantly after confirmation, delays may occur if one party fails to respond promptly. 

 

In contrast, traditional exchanges enable seamless transactions without requiring buyer or seller confirmation.

 

✎ Lower Liquidity

Due to the nature of the process, C2C exchanges typically have lower liquidity than CEXs. 

 

Large-scale traders may prefer OTC (Over-The-Counter) trading or traditional exchanges for high-volume transactions.

 

✎ Risk of Dirty Money

One notable downside of C2C trading is the risk of receiving “dirty money.” If regulatory authorities trace illicit funds, accounts involved may be frozen.

 

To mitigate this risk, some sellers implement KYC (Know Your Customer) procedures, requesting identification or opting for in-person cash transactions.

 

>>> More to read: 5 Safest Crypto Exchanges of 2024 | How to Invest in Crypto Safely

IS C2C TRADING SAFE?

 

Like any form of trading, C2C transactions carry inherent risks, depending on the platform and security measures in place. 

 

While older platforms may have been more vulnerable to theft and fraud, many modern C2C trading platforms have significantly improved their security protocols.

 

Advanced C2C exchanges now commonly offer escrow services, regular security updates, and rigorous identity verification processes to ensure user safety.

 

However, even with robust safeguards, all trading activities involve risk — and C2C trading is no exception.

❗ Common C2C Scams

 

1️⃣ Fake Payment Proof or SMS Fraud

Scammers may digitally alter receipts to make it appear as if payment has been made, tricking sellers into releasing their crypto. 

 

One common method is sending fake SMS notifications of received funds.

 

✎ How to Avoid This Scam:
Always verify payments directly in your wallet or bank account before approving the transaction.

2️⃣ Chargeback Fraud

Fraudsters may use the chargeback feature on certain payment platforms to cancel the payment after receiving your assets. 

 

Often, they pay through third-party accounts, making it harder to track. Payment methods like checks or online wallets are more susceptible to chargebacks.

 

✎ How to Avoid This Scam:
Avoid accepting payments from third-party accounts. If chargeback fraud occurs, report the case to the platform and issue a refund directly to the buyer’s account.

3️⃣ Reversal Fraud

Similar to chargebacks, scammers might contact their bank to report a transaction error and request a reversal, effectively stealing your assets. 

 

In some cases, they may intimidate sellers by falsely claiming that selling crypto is illegal.

 

✎ How to Avoid This Scam:
Do not succumb to intimidation. Keep records of all communications and transaction evidence, such as screenshots and receipts.

4️⃣ Phishing Scams

Phishing involves scammers posing as C2C platform representatives to steal user assets or information. 

 

Fraudsters may impersonate customer service agents to gain access to crypto accounts or personal data.

 

✎ How to Avoid This Scam:
Be cautious of unsolicited emails or messages claiming security issues with your account. Verify the source before clicking on any links, and only seek assistance through the official C2C platform.

C2C crypto trading is a method of buying and selling cryptocurrencies directly without involving intermediaries. 

 

Through C2C transactions, you have full control over the price, counterparties, and timing of the trade.

 

To safeguard your assets, it is crucial to stay aware of potential risks associated with C2C trading. 

 

This includes understanding the terms of any agreement, recognizing warning signs of fraud, and using platforms with robust security features.

 

>>> More to read: 4 Most Common Crypto Scams And How To Avoid Them

 

 

 

 

ꚰ CoinRank x Bitget – Sign up & Trade!

Looking for the latest scoop and cool insights from CoinRank? Hit up our Twitter and stay in the loop with all our fresh stories!

〈What is C2C in Crypto | A Safety Guide〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。

APRO delivers real-time, AI-enhanced oracle data for complex Web3 and DeFi applications.

 

The AT token powers governance, staking, rewards, and ecosystem incentives.

 

A dual-layer architecture boosts security, accuracy, and reliability across blockchains.

APRO (AT) is a next-generation multi-chain oracle network integrating real-world data, AI, and high-frequency feeds to power advanced Web3 applications, secured by staking and a dual-layer architecture.

 

 

WHAT IS APRO?

 

APRO is described as a multi-chain oracle network designed to deliver real-time, verifiable off-chain data to blockchain applications. Unlike traditional oracles that mainly focus on price feeds, APRO emphasizes high-frequency data delivery, deeper analytics, and support for complex, non-standardized assets.

 

 

Based on the project’s documentation, APRO builds its data infrastructure around several core domains:

 

✅ Real-World Asset (RWA) Pricing and Verification

It supports pricing and validation for more complex and non-standardized assets, ensuring reliable and verifiable data sources.

 

✅ AI-Powered Data Aggregation

Multiple AI models are integrated to enhance data collection, cleaning, and calibration, resulting in more consistent and accurate oracle outputs.

 

✅ Prediction Market Data

APRO delivers event-driven insights, probability data, trend indicators, and micro-signals relevant to prediction-based applications.

 

✅ DeFi-Focused Data Feeds

High-frequency, low-latency data suitable for lending, derivatives, leverage, liquidation systems, and other on-chain financial mechanisms.

 

✅ Price Information and Advanced Analytics

Higher-resolution pricing with fast update intervals, ideal for quantitative strategies and automated trading systems.

📌 Key Characteristics of APRO

 

Overall, APRO positions itself as an oracle network built for the next generation of Web3 applications—prioritizing speed, intelligence, and flexibility. Its architecture highlights:

 

High-frequency data delivery

Native support for complex and non-standard assets

Integration of AI and decentralized data sources to produce enhanced oracle feeds

 

In short, APRO aims not just to be a “faster” oracle, but a “smarter” one capable of serving a wider range of blockchain use cases.

🪙 AT Token Supply

 

AT is the native token of the APRO ecosystem.

 

The total supply is fixed at 1,000,000,000 tokens, with approximately 230 million currently estimated to be in circulation according to CoinMarketCap.

 

This fixed supply structure gives AT predictable token economics, enabling the project to design incentives for validators, governance mechanisms, and data request payments (subject to official documentation).

 

>>> More to read: What is Telcoin(TEL)?

APRO (AT) TOKENOMICS

 

 

 

The APRO (AT) token powers the oracle network and is designed to support several core functions, including governance, staking, rewards, and ecosystem incentives.

 

✏️ Key Public Token Data

 

Total Supply: 1,000,000,000 AT

Circulating Supply: ~230,000,000 AT (based on CoinMarketCap snapshot)

 

A commonly referenced token allocation model (always verify with official documentation) outlines the following distribution:

 

Staking Rewards — ~20% (≈ 200M AT)
Comes with a vesting schedule to support long-term network security.

 

Team Allocation — ~10% (≈ 100M AT)
Locked over a long-term horizon to align incentives with project growth.

 

Investor Allocation — ~20% (≈ 200M AT)
Distributed with structured vesting.

 

Ecosystem Fund — ~25% (≈ 250M AT)
Designed to be deployed over roughly 48 months for partnerships, development, and integrations.

 

Public Distribution — ~15% (≈ 150M AT)
Unlocked at TGE for community and market liquidity.

 

Liquidity Reserve — ~3% (≈ 30M AT)
Released at TGE to support exchange and protocol liquidity.

🔍 Utility of the APRO (AT) Token

 

The AT token underpins the broader APRO ecosystem, providing essential utility across the network:

 

▶ Staking to support network consensus

 

▶ Governance rights for protocol decisions

 

▶ Rewards for data node operators and contributors

 

▶ Incentives to expand ecosystem growth and adoption

>>> More to read: What is Monad? $MON Explained

HOW APRO WORKS

 

APRO operates through a unique dual-layer network architecture designed to improve data accuracy, security, and reliability across multiple blockchains.

 

1️⃣ Layer 1: The OCMP Network

 

The first layer, known as OCMP, is composed of nodes responsible for gathering off-chain data and transmitting it to the blockchain. These nodes cross-check one another to validate accuracy before any data is delivered on-chain.

 

2️⃣ Layer 2: The EigenLayer-Based Network

 

The second layer leverages EigenLayer to act as an arbitration or “verification layer.” It performs an additional round of checks, helping resolve discrepancies and ensuring that incorrect or manipulated data is filtered out.

 

This two-layer structure reduces systemic risk and significantly strengthens the security guarantees of the APRO oracle framework.

📌 Staking and Security

 

Participants in the network are required to stake AT tokens as collateral. This mechanism creates economic accountability:

 

Submitting false or malicious data can result in a loss of staked tokens.

 

Users outside the nodes can also stake deposits to report suspicious activities, contributing to network integrity.

 

In short, AT staking plays a central role in aligning incentives and securing the system.

📌 Data Delivery: Push vs. Pull Models

 

APRO delivers data to blockchains using two primary mechanisms, each optimized for different use cases.

 

▶ Data Push Model

 

Nodes automatically send updates at regular intervals or when certain price movements meet predefined thresholds.

 

This approach ensures high-speed delivery and prevents network congestion by avoiding unnecessary updates.

 

Ideal for:

 

High-frequency markets

Real-time DeFi protocols

Applications requiring immediate data changes

 

▶ Data Pull Model

 

Instead of constant updates, data is fetched only when an application requests it.

This method reduces costs and improves flexibility—especially valuable for DeFi protocols, trading venues, and applications where data freshness is required but not continuously.

Ideal for:

 

On-demand or triggered queries

Cost-efficient DeFi integrations

Exchanges requiring precise timing

 

Both models rely on cryptographic proofs and consensus between nodes to guarantee the accuracy and trustworthiness of the delivered data.

 

>>> More to read: What is Meteora (MET)?

APRO (AT) CONCLUSION

 

APRO (AT) positions itself as a next-generation multi-chain oracle network designed to bridge real-world data, artificial intelligence, and blockchain applications. Its token model is built around governance, staking, and incentives that encourage active participation across the network.

 

While the project has been gaining attention, certain details—such as information about the founding team and some aspects of the token allocation—remain partially unclear. This is not uncommon among emerging Web3 infrastructure projects, especially those still in early development.

 

As the oracle landscape continues to evolve, APRO will need to demonstrate strong technical execution and transparent development practices in order to compete effectively with established players in the sector.

 

 

 

 

ꚰ CoinRank x Bitget – Sign up & Trade!

Looking for the latest scoop and cool insights from CoinRank? Hit up our Twitter and stay in the loop with all our fresh stories!

〈What is APRO (AT)?〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。

The long-term rate-cut path signals a multi-year shift toward looser liquidity, creating a supportive macro environment for Bitcoin and risk assets beyond short-term FOMC volatility.

Real interest rates peaked in late 2023 and have since trended lower, with each decline aligning closely with Bitcoin’s major upward legs throughout 2024.

Despite short-term consolidation in 2025, the broader macro structure still favors risk assets, though ideal entry points depend on upcoming short-term data and market reactions.

The real rate trend and long-term rate-cut path reveal why Bitcoin remains in a bull-market correction phase despite short-term volatility around the upcoming FOMC decision.

The next FOMC meeting is only a few days away, and as usual, all eyes are on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates. Yet focusing solely on the meeting itself often leads investors to overlook the real driver of long-term market trends: the rate-cut path, not the decision of a single night.

 

While the upcoming meeting may influence short-term volatility—especially as markets have already priced in expectations—the far more important signal for crypto investors lies in the trajectory of interest rates over the coming years. Understanding this difference is essential for navigating where Bitcoin, risk assets, and macro liquidity could be heading next.

 

THE LIMITS OF REACTING TO A SINGLE RATE DECISION

 

Market participants love reacting to FOMC nights. Headlines are dramatic, narratives are easy to amplify, and price movements are visibly immediate. But the policy rate announced during a meeting reflects only the current stance—what the Fed is prepared to implement right now. This is a short-term indicator, and its impact fades quickly once the initial volatility passes.

 

Yes, expectations for the upcoming meeting have shifted. As of now, markets are pricing an 87.11% probability that the target range will be lowered to 350–375 basis points, and a 12.9% probability of a smaller cut to 375–400. Such expectations likely contributed to Bitcoin’s pullback around November 25, when markets adjusted their pricing ahead of the announcement.

 

 

However, traders often confuse this short-term repricing with a durable trend. When the meeting arrives, positive news may already be fully priced in, while a disappointment can trigger outsized downside reactions. This is why the market sometimes rallies before the meeting and stalls—or even corrects—after it.

 

But none of this defines the long-term environment in which risk assets truly thrive or struggle.

 

WHY THE RATE-CUT PATH IS FAR MORE IMPORTANT

 

While the FOMC meeting tells us where rates are this month, the rate-cut path tells us where policy is likely to move over multiple years. That trajectory—visible through the Fed’s dot plot and evolving market expectations—is what shapes liquidity conditions, risk appetite, capital allocation, and ultimately Bitcoin’s multi-year trend.

 

As of now, the current effective rate sits at 3.88%. The dot plot shows a consistent downward path over the next several years, with expectations falling toward the low-3% range by 2028. This downward slope is not about short-term relief but about the structural environment in which global capital will operate.

 

 

To understand the significance of this, one only needs to look backward.

 

LOOKING BACK: THE MARKET ENTERED A NEW LOW-RATE ERA IN 2024

 

When we examine the rate-cut path of the past few years, the pattern becomes unmistakable. Beginning in 2024, the market entered what can be described as the start of a new long-term low-rate era. This shift helped unlock substantial liquidity and is one of the biggest reasons Bitcoin performed so strongly throughout 2024.

 

Risk assets respond not to a single cut, but to the expectation that rates will remain lower—or continue falling—over a long horizon. When the path bends downward, markets can discount future cash flows more aggressively, capital becomes less constrained, and investors grow more willing to assume risk.

 

Consequently, the rate-cut path alone already suggests that markets broadly expect favorable conditions for risk assets over the next several years.

 

Yet relying solely on the rate path is dangerous because expectations can be fragile. A geopolitical surprise, an inflation resurgence, or a sudden shock could redraw the map entirely. Markets price in probability, not certainty. And so no investor should take aggressive bets only because the dot plot looks supportive.

 

To refine our view, we need a metric that reflects how policy interacts with real economic conditions—not just nominal announcements.

 

WHY THE REAL INTEREST RATE MATTERS MORE THAN THE NOMINAL RATE

 

Most people focus on the nominal rate—the one the Fed announces—but this number alone is often misleading. It tells us what the Fed says, not what the market experiences.

 

A better way to understand the difference is to imagine middle-school homework. The teacher assigns three math test papers and instructs you to time yourself, complete the work carefully, and submit the results. That’s the nominal requirement. 

 

But in reality, many students simply glance at the answer sheet, copy the solutions, deliberately create a few “mistakes” for realism, and write a reflection about needing to “be more careful next time.”

 

 That is the actual execution—far removed from the nominal instruction.

 

Interest rates work the same way. The Fed sets the nominal rate, but markets react through expectations, inflation, risk premiums, and liquidity flows. The true lived experience of financial conditions is the real interest rate, which adjusts the nominal rate for inflation and reflects actual market pressure.

 

This is what matters most for long-term macro trends—and especially for Bitcoin.

 

WHAT RECENT REAL INTEREST RATE DATA REVEALS

 

Focusing on the 5-year real interest rate offers an especially clear picture. During 2022 and 2023, real rates surged aggressively. That period also corresponded to one of crypto’s harshest bear markets. When real rates rise, liquidity tightens, leverage unwinds, and risk assets suffer.

 

 

But something critical happened in late 2023.

 

In October 2023, the 5-year real rate peaked. From that point forward, a gradual downward trend began to form. And importantly, each local high in 2024 was followed by a pullback—each of which lined up neatly with Bitcoin’s three major upward legs during the year.

 

By contrast, the pattern changed in 2025. After months of steady decline, real rates flattened in October 2025 and have since moved into a period of sideways consolidation. This signals neither a tightening environment nor an aggressively easing one—just a pause, a plateau.

 

 

Such plateaus often precede major macro decisions or inflection points. They can accompany short-term corrections in risk assets even if the long-term outlook remains positive.

 

COMBINING LONG-TERM AND MID-TERM MACRO SIGNALS

 

When we combine the long-term rate-cut path with mid-term real-rate trends, the conclusion becomes clearer.

 

The market remains in a bull-market correction phase—a temporary cooling period within an overall optimistic macro backdrop. Liquidity is not tightening aggressively, structural downward pressure on rates persists, and historical patterns align with the idea that Bitcoin’s broader uptrend has not been invalidated.

 

However, determining whether now is the right time to re-enter the market requires more than long-term optimism. It depends on how short-term indicators behave, how real rates break out from their current consolidation, and how the market digests the upcoming FOMC meeting.

 

The long-term thesis remains strong. But entries are made on short-term signals.

 

And those short-term signals will unfold next week.

 

Read More:

Bitcoin Faces ETF Selling Pressure, But It’s Not a Bear Market

Maybe the Market Isn’t in a Bear Phase Yet

〈The Rate-Cut Path Signals a Stronger Macro Cycle for Bitcoin Ahead〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。

HTX releases its December Merkle Tree reserve audit, showing that USDC reserves have nearly doubled, while all major assets continue to maintain reserve ratios above 100%.
Matrixport reports that Bitcoin’s recent rebound is driven more by market positioning than by actual price fundamentals.
ZachXBT confirms that UK hacker Danny has been arrested, with authorities seizing approximately $18.58 million in crypto assets.
Italy’s securities regulator warns that the MiCAR transition period is ending, and existing VASPs must upgrade to CASP status if they want to keep operating legally.
SlowMist’s CISO reports a new attack chain targeting the React/Next.js RCE vulnerability, urging DeFi platforms to stay alert to potential security threats.

Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, stated at Binance Blockchain Week that if the ETH/BTC price ratio returns to its eight-year average, Ethereum could climb to around $62,000. He noted that ETH is breaking out of its five-year consolidation range, and the 2025 asset tokenization wave will further strengthen Ethereum’s utility.
#BinanceBlockchainWeek2025

Ostium shifts the RWA narrative from tokenization to onchain perpetual exposure creating a transparent alternative to the multi trillion dollar CFD industry.

 

Its dual oracle system and shared liquidity architecture introduce institutional level risk controls enabling accurate pricing and sustainable liquidity across global macro assets.

 

Backed by Jump Crypto General Catalyst and top market makers Ostium positions itself as the first serious infrastructure for onchain global markets and a potential challenger to traditional brokers.

THE SHIFT FROM TOKENIZATION TO PERPETUAL EXPOSURE

 

For years most of the attention in the RWA narrative focused on tokenization. Industry builders spent their time turning treasury bills credit portfolios or real estate into onchain assets. This brought value to settlement and yield but did not unlock the deeper demand that drives global trading activity. Tokenized assets are slow and often restricted by compliance checks. They are useful for capital storage not speculation. The largest markets in the world run on leverage and short term exposure not on ownership.

 

This is the gap that Ostium tries to fill. The team starts with a simple idea. The next phase of RWA will not be about wrapping assets. It will be about offering direct price exposure for global macro markets through onchain perpetual contracts. The traditional CFD industry processes trillions of dollars every month. Yet it is known for opaque pricing wide spreads and dealers who profit from client losses. Retail traders continue to use these platforms because they want leverage on gold crude foreign exchange and index movements. They do not care about asset custody. They care about execution.

 

Ostium enters this environment with a proposal that feels inevitable in hindsight. A transparent non custodial and auditable system that lets users trade global markets with the reliability of smart contracts. No dealer book. No silent price widening. No arbitrary liquidations. The protocol positions itself not as a DeFi experiment but as a structural upgrade to a giant yet fragile industry. This is why its early supporters come from both crypto native firms and traditional market makers. They see a model that mirrors real world trading behaviour while avoiding the flaws that created decades of conflict between brokers and clients.

 

 

The more one looks at the current state of global finance the clearer this transition becomes. High inflation broken correlations and unstable foreign exchange cycles push investors to search for tools that hedge risk without reentering the banking system. DeFi has never been able to serve these needs. Ostium breaks that limitation by giving traders a direct path to major global markets. Its products become a bridge between two financial realities. One is twenty four hours open and permissionless. The other is regulated slow and filled with friction. The protocol sits in the middle and gives each side what they lack.

 

A NEW ARCHITECTURE FOR RWA MARKETS

 

The most distinctive part of Ostium is not its asset list or its interface. It is the structure beneath the surface. Most perpetual DEXs try to mimic the behaviour of centralized exchanges. Ostium does not follow that path. It builds a system that respects how traditional markets move and how risk flows through a portfolio. This is visible in every design choice.

 

The shared liquidity layer is the foundation. It separates short term market noise from long term liquidity. A liquidity buffer absorbs daily profit and loss. Behind it sits the OLP vault which carries deeper risk and receives a meaningful share of protocol revenue. This structure aligns interests instead of putting traders and liquidity providers against each other. It fixes a weakness that hurt many early DeFi derivatives projects. Liquidity providers no longer fear profitable traders because the system distributes shock in a controlled way. The result is a healthier market and a more stable liquidity base.

 

 

The second breakthrough is the dual oracle design. RWA assets do not trade nonstop. They close on weekends and holidays. They gap when news breaks. A normal crypto oracle cannot handle these conditions. Ostium solves this by building a custom pull based oracle for RWA assets while using Chainlink Data Streams for crypto markets. The RWA oracle respects trading hour logic. It pauses when markets close and handles price gaps at open. It avoids the dangerous scenario where traders can attack stale prices on weekends. This gives the protocol a realistic microstructure that mirrors traditional exchanges without copying their custodial model.

 

Then comes the imbalance score. This is a mathematical engine that calculates how much risk the system takes with every new position. It looks at volatility correlation and long short imbalance. If an order increases risk it pays a higher fee. If it reduces risk it pays less. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a portfolio that moves toward balance instead of drifting into dangerous concentration. Few DEXs attempt this level of risk modelling. Ostium does it because its asset list requires it. Someone trading gold is not the same as someone trading a memecoin. Someone trading USDJPY needs different fee logic than someone trading Ethereum. The imbalance score ties these differences into one unified risk framework.

 

The combination of these elements turns Ostium into an engineered system rather than a simple trading venue. It reflects the founders backgrounds in macro trading and quantitative research. They understand what breaks in volatile markets. They understand why risk must be measured not assumed. Their architecture shows this awareness. It is built to survive conditions that have destroyed many onchain trading platforms in the past.

 

THE RISE OF A NEW COMPETITOR IN DERIVATIVES

 

The global derivatives landscape has never been more crowded yet never more open to disruption. Hyperliquid dominates crypto native perpetuals. Centralized exchanges remain strong but face pressure from compliance and rising operational requirements. Gains Network captures retail interest with its synthetic trading model. None of them focus deeply on the RWA exposure that traders actively demand. Ostium enters that empty space with a clear target. It aims to become the onchain platform for global macro trading and it is not subtle about this goal.

 

Its market strategy reflects this ambition. It does not list hundreds of volatile assets. It focuses on gold oil silver copper foreign exchange majors and global equity indices. These are the instruments traders use to express views on inflation growth policy and geopolitical tension. These are the instruments that move when real world events unfold. In traditional finance trading them requires account approval leverage restrictions and custody risk. On Ostium a trader only needs a Web3 wallet and a few dollars. This level of access did not exist before.

 

 

The capital behind the protocol also tells its own story. Jump Crypto General Catalyst SIG GSR and Wintermute are not casual investors. They select systems that can scale into institutional infrastructure. Their involvement signals confidence in both the market design and the long term demand for onchain global trading rails. It also signals something deeper. These firms believe the future of derivatives will not be fully centralized. They expect some part of the market to migrate to transparent non custodial execution where algorithms can verify every part of the process. Ostium is one of the few architectures built with this assumption in mind.

 

The competitive edge becomes clearer when comparing models. Hyperliquid offers unmatched speed but focuses on crypto assets. Gains offers synthetic exposure but lacks a granular risk engine. Traditional CFD brokers offer wide market access but operate in a black box. Ostium blends the strengths of these systems while avoiding their weaknesses. It brings transparency where brokers lack it. It brings risk measurement where synthetic models ignore it. It brings a focus on global assets where crypto exchanges hesitate to expand. As a result the protocol occupies a category that did not exist before.

 

This is also why the protocol has momentum behind its points program. Traders see it as a major future airdrop. Liquidity providers see it as a long term yield strategy. Users who missed early Hyperliquid activity do not want to miss the next potential breakout. The program is simple. It rewards volume and liquidity. It is integrated into both trading behaviour and social referral behaviour. It sets the stage for a future token that will likely play a role in governance and collateral design. In the context of the 2026 cycle this adds another layer of interest to the protocol.

 

THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL MARKETS ONCHAIN

 

The story of Ostium is not only about a protocol. It is about how financial markets evolve when technology removes the need for permission or trust. For a decade DeFi tried to expand by building better venues for crypto assets. Ostium turns the direction outward. It looks at the largest markets in the world and asks why they cannot exist onchain. It answers that question with design not narrative. Its architecture shows how to support global macro exposure inside an environment that has no central authority and no closing bell.

 

The future path of the project is shaped by several forces. Macroeconomic conditions remain unstable. This increases the demand for liquid hedging tools. RWA adoption continues to grow as more users move part of their portfolios into blockchain based systems. Developers push toward account abstraction and simpler interfaces that reduce the friction of onchain trading. Each of these forces supports the growth of a platform like Ostium. As the user experience becomes smoother the protocol becomes a realistic alternative to offshore brokers. As trust in centralized intermediaries declines transparent execution becomes a competitive advantage.

 

Regulation sits as the main uncertainty. Offering exposure to equities and commodities to global retail users has always raised questions. Ostium reduces this risk by avoiding custody and using a synthetic model. It limits access where needed but still operates in a permissionless environment. It will need to navigate this space carefully as adoption grows. Yet history shows that markets tend to embrace systems that offer clear rules and transparent execution. If the protocol maintains a strong security record and avoids critical failures it will earn the credibility needed to operate at scale.

 

The broader implication is that DeFi is no longer a niche inside crypto. It is becoming the infrastructure that absorbs parts of traditional finance. The shift will not happen all at once. It will begin with traders who want cheaper and more reliable execution. It will spread to liquidity providers who see predictable yield inside a transparent system. It will reach institutions when the technical foundation becomes stable enough for regulated flows. Ostium positions itself at the front of this transition. It aims to become the reference point for onchain global markets.

 

In the end the protocol represents a simple idea with major consequences. Markets are more efficient when rules are visible. Traders take more rational risk when liquidation logic is transparent. Liquidity grows when incentives are aligned. Ostium tries to apply these principles to assets that have never lived onchain in a serious way. If it succeeds it will not just compete with other DEXs. It will compete with the entire CFD industry and with the fragmented infrastructure that surrounds global macro trading today.

 

The project is a bet on a world where blockchains become the default execution layer for every asset class. This world will take time to arrive. It will require technical strength regulatory awareness and consistent delivery. But the direction is clear. The next frontier of DeFi is not inside crypto. It is the transformation of global markets themselves. Ostium stands as one of the first systems designed for that world. It reflects ambition discipline and a willingness to challenge the largest structures in traditional finance. Whether it becomes the leading platform or a catalyst for a broader shift its impact is already visible. It shows that the era of onchain global markets has begun.

 

〈Ostium and the Rise of Onchain Global Markets〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。

Global regulation is moving from experimentation to strategic positioning as the U.S., EU, and Asian hubs compete to shape crypto’s role in institutional finance and digital economies.

 

ETF approvals in the U.S. and MiCA in Europe signal mainstream integration, pushing other regions to refine regulatory frameworks that balance innovation, compliance, and investor protection.

 

Builders and traders must combine self-custody, licensed platforms, hybrid DeFi, and privacy-preserving identity tools to navigate a future where crypto becomes regulated financial

A global shift in crypto regulation is redefining markets as the U.S., Europe, and Asia establish new frameworks shaping adoption, institutional growth, and the future of digital finance.

As the crypto industry enters its second decade of mainstream attention, regulation—not price action—is becoming the defining force behind its next evolution. 

 

This shift was at the center of CoinRank’s X Space discussion on December 4, 2025, where leaders from 4E Global, Anubi, Golden Pact, Cwallet, and Miniverse explored how global regulatory frameworks are reshaping market structure, institutional participation, and builder strategy. 

 

Their insights revealed not only where regulation stands today, but also how it is likely to influence crypto’s transformation into a formal component of global finance.

 

A WORLD DIVIDED: REGULATORY LANDSCAPES ACROSS MAJOR REGIONS

 

One of the clearest themes of the discussion was how fragmented global regulation has become. While the United States moves slowly on legislation but quickly on market-driven approval structures like ETFs, Europe has already launched MiCA—the first large-scale, unified crypto regulatory framework. Meanwhile, Asia and the Middle East are actively competing for leadership by creating innovation-friendly licensing regimes.

 

From a multi-regional vantage point, guests described the U.S. as operating with a “patchwork” model: the SEC continues to treat most tokens as securities, the CFTC classifies Bitcoin and Ethereum as commodities, and enforcement is often more active than legislative development. Yet, ironically, despite regulatory uncertainty, the ETF approvals have allowed institutional participation to expand faster in the U.S. than anywhere else.

 

Europe’s environment is the opposite: structured, comprehensive, and built for consumer protection, but also undeniably bureaucratic. MiCA dictates licensing requirements for exchanges, custodians, and stablecoin issuers across all EU member states. Although clear, its political nature and administrative weight may limit its global adoption.

 

Singapore, Dubai, and Hong Kong were repeatedly highlighted as innovation-first hubs. Singapore stands out for combining clarity with long-term execution, offering a licensing regime that supports both institutional products and carefully guided experimentation in staking and DeFi. Dubai continues to advance as a rapidly expanding magnet for builders and capital, benefitting from its internationally open stance and strong government backing. Hong Kong’s resurgence is driven by retail ETF access and a proactive licensing model, though always balanced against its geopolitical context.

 

Across all regions, a consistent pattern emerges: every jurisdiction is searching for equilibrium between growth and guardrails. This is also why choosing the right regulatory home has become a strategic decision for every serious Web3 project.

 

FROM ADOPTION TO POSITIONING: WHERE GLOBAL REGULATION STANDS NOW

 

A key question posed during the AMA asked whether the world is still in an early adoption phase—or whether we have transitioned into stabilization or strategic positioning. The consensus was clear: the early adoption era is long over.

 

Gone are the days of unregulated experimentation, ambiguous legality, or outright bans defining the frontier. Most major markets now recognize crypto as a legitimate financial asset class, and the discussion has shifted toward how best to integrate it into existing systems.

 

According to the speakers, the global landscape is currently straddling two phases:

 

Stabilization:

Countries are defining rulebooks, establishing licensing requirements, and tightening consumer protections.

 

Strategic Positioning:

Nations are no longer asking whether to regulate, but how regulation can help them compete in the next era of financial innovation.

 

This competition is especially visible in Asia and the Middle East, where jurisdictions are using flexible licensing, ETF access, and crypto-friendly policies to attract companies, capital, and technical talent. At the same time, other major markets remain cautious, which only sharpens the divide.

 

Regulation, therefore, has become a geopolitical tool as much as a financial one.

 

THE U.S. ETF EFFECT: MARKET-LED REGULATION

 

Perhaps the most consequential regulatory event of the past year was the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the United States. Although U.S. legal clarity remains limited, ETFs instantly legitimized crypto as an institutional asset class.

 

As several speakers noted, the market moved faster than the law. BlackRock, Fidelity, and other major institutions did not wait for Congress or the SEC—they acted according to existing investment frameworks. The result is a form of regulation through adoption, where the market itself forces greater transparency, reporting, and standardization.

 

This shift sends a strong global signal: if institutions in the world’s largest economy are now adopting crypto through compliant financial structures, other countries must adapt or risk losing capital flows. Because ETFs bridge crypto to pensions, sovereign wealth funds, banks, and traditional asset managers, they have redefined what “mainstream adoption” looks like.

 

In short, U.S. regulation may be unclear, but U.S. markets remain the most influential.

 

MICA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A GLOBAL MODEL

 

Europe’s MiCA stands as the first fully scaled, unified regulatory framework for digital assets. It covers stablecoin operations, exchange licensing, transparency requirements, and investor protections. Some panelists argued that MiCA represents the most comprehensive approach currently available.

 

However, they also emphasized that MiCA is deeply shaped by EU-specific political structures. Its single-market priorities, consumer-first philosophy, and complex administrative layers may not transfer easily to regions that prefer lighter frameworks or market-first approaches.

 

What MiCA will influence globally, however, are its core principles:
– clear licensing categories
– robust custody requirements
– standardized disclosures
– investor protection standards

 

These components are likely to inspire regulatory models elsewhere—even if the full framework isn’t replicated.

 

SINGAPORE, DUBAI, OR HONG KONG: WHICH HUB LEADS?

 

When discussing the future blueprint for crypto-friendly regulation, three hubs dominated the conversation: Singapore, Dubai, and Hong Kong.

 

Singapore was frequently highlighted for its consistency and long-term clarity. Its licensing model supports innovation while requiring responsible risk management, and it provides an environment attractive to both institutions and builders.

 

Dubai was praised for its momentum and openness. With strong government endorsement and a globally diverse ecosystem, Dubai is positioning itself as an international focal point for crypto, AI, and emerging technologies.

 

Hong Kong is re-establishing itself as a digital asset hub through ETF listings, retail-friendly access, and clearer institutional pathways.

 

Each hub targets a different profile of builders and investors, and the competition between them is accelerating regulatory innovation across the region.

 

THE NEXT 6–12 MONTHS: WHAT TO EXPECT

 

When asked what the industry should anticipate over the next year, the panel identified three major trends:

 

Stricter enforcement against unlicensed platforms

Regulators are expected to intensify pressure on opaque or offshore operators, pushing the industry toward cleaner compliance.

 

Wider institutional onboarding

Banks, asset managers, and payment networks are increasingly willing to offer crypto services—especially once custody standards and stablecoin rules become clearer.

 

Gradual normalization of regulated crypto infrastructure

Stablecoins may become a central focus of new regulation because they connect blockchain activity directly to fiat systems. At the same time, regulators are exploring how to integrate DeFi protocols with oversight requirements without eliminating their permissionless nature.

 

The direction is clear: crypto is fast becoming part of mainstream financial architecture.

 

WHAT TRADERS AND BUILDERS SHOULD PRIORITIZE

 

Navigating the coming era will require using multiple approaches rather than relying on a single model. The discussion highlighted several practical strategies:

 

– Self-custody for long-term asset security

Personal ownership remains essential for minimizing counterparty risk.

 

– Licensed platforms for liquidity and fiat access

Institutional markets will gravitate toward regulated venues.

 

– Hybrid DeFi solutions for scalable, compliant value transfer

Permissionless systems that can integrate optional compliance layers will see strong growth.

 

– On-chain identity with privacy-preserving technologies

Zero-knowledge proofs may allow users to meet regulatory requirements without exposing sensitive data.

 

Success will go to builders who design systems that respect regulatory expectations without abandoning decentralization—a balance that is becoming increasingly necessary.

 

IS STRICTER COMPLIANCE GOOD FOR CRYPTO?

 

Although opinions differed on the cultural implications, most speakers agreed that stricter compliance—when implemented correctly—is a net positive.

 

Institutional trust is something the crypto industry could not develop on its own. Traditional finance brings the credibility that enables broader adoption, deeper liquidity, and more stable user experiences. Regulation also helps eliminate bad actors, which in turn improves the ecosystem’s reputation.

 

However, panelists emphasized a critical caveat: innovation must not be suffocated. The purpose of compliance should be to protect users, not to restrict creative development or make decentralized systems unworkable. The tension between permissionless innovation and centralized oversight will remain a defining challenge for years to come.

 

Nonetheless, professionalization is ultimately a major milestone for an industry aiming to integrate into global finance.

 

CONCLUSION: CRYPTO AS REGULATED FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE

 

The AMA concluded with a shared understanding: crypto has left the experimental frontier behind. What lies ahead is a period where markets and governments compete to shape the next generation of financial infrastructure.

 

Whether through the U.S. market-driven ETF model, the structured clarity of MiCA, or the innovation ecosystems of Singapore, Dubai, and Hong Kong, the trajectory is unmistakable. Crypto is being woven into the machinery of global finance—and the jurisdictions that balance innovation with sound regulation will define the next cycle.

As builders, traders, and institutions adapt to this environment, the question is no longer whether crypto will be regulated. Instead, it is which regulatory visions will lead the next era—and who will be prepared to build within them.

〈Regulation, Adoption or Suppression? Understanding the Global Shift in Crypto Compliance〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。

Europe Builds Its Own Digital Wall Street
The Deutsche Börse × Kraken partnership signals Europe’s most serious move yet to reclaim institutional digital asset flows by merging regulated exchange infrastructure with crypto native liquidity.

 

Base–Solana Interoperability Unlocks High Throughput Liquidity
The new Chainlink CCIP secured bridge connects Base and Solana turning previously isolated ecosystems into a shared liquidity layer for developers traders and on chain applications.

 

Sovereign Wealth Funds Are Quietly Setting Bitcoin’s New Floor
Larry Fink confirms state level buyers accumulated BTC at 120K 100K and even below 90K framing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve style asset within national long horizon portfolios.

Kraken Partners With Deutsche Börse as Europe Moves to Challenge Wall Street in Digital Assets

 

Deutsche Börse Group and Kraken announced a strategic partnership aimed at accelerating institutional crypto adoption across Europe and signalling a coordinated push to compete directly with Wall Street. The collaboration combines DBG’s regulated market infrastructure with Kraken’s cryptocurrency expertise to create a unified bridge between traditional and digital markets.

 

The initiative comes as European institutions look to strengthen their position in digital capital markets and build infrastructure capable of supporting large scale institutional flows. By merging legacy exchange frameworks with crypto native liquidity routing, the partnership positions Europe to close the structural gap with US financial markets where exchanges custodians and ETF issuers have moved faster in integrating digital assets.

 

The effort is expected to support institutional clients entering the digital asset era by offering compliant access points and a clearer operational pathway for regulated participation. Analysts view this as Europe’s most explicit signal yet that it intends to build competitive digital market rails rather than rely on US intermediaries, setting the stage for deeper regulatory harmonization and potential expansion into tokenized capital markets.

 

Coinbase and Chainlink Launch Base–Solana Bridge in Bid to Connect High Throughput Ecosystems

 

A new mainnet bridge linking Coinbase’s Base network and the Solana blockchain has gone live, enabling direct transfers of SOL and other SPL tokens into Base based decentralized applications. The infrastructure is secured by Chainlink’s Cross Chain Interoperability Protocol and marks the first formal connection between the two ecosystems.

 

The bridge allows users to interact with Solana assets inside Base dapps without leaving the environment, lowering friction for trading and expanding liquidity across both chains. Early adopters including Zora Aerodrome Virtuals Flaunch and Relay are already integrating support. For developers, the open source GitHub repository offers a standardized way to add cross chain functionality and incorporate Solana assets natively.

 

Chainlink Labs said the bridge represents a broader step toward interconnected blockchains and “always on” capital markets, with more networks expected to be added. Executives framed CCIP as the emerging interoperability standard for institutions, positioning cross chain finance as the next scaling phase for tokenized assets and multi chain markets.

 

BlackRock’s Fink Says Sovereign Wealth Funds Bought Bitcoin as It Fell Below 90K Signalling Long Horizon Demand

 

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said sovereign wealth funds were active buyers of bitcoin during the recent plunge below 90,000 US dollars, accumulating positions as part of long duration strategies rather than short term trades. He noted that state entities have been adding incrementally at multiple price levels including the 120,000 and 100,000 ranges and continued buying when BTC fell into the 80s.

 

Fink’s remarks highlight a shift in how global sovereign investors are approaching bitcoin, viewing it increasingly as a strategic reserve style asset and a hedge against inflation and sovereign debt pressures. Buyers such as Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala and Luxembourg’s sovereign wealth fund have previously disclosed exposure through spot ETF allocations, but the willingness to add during volatility suggests rising confidence in long term resilience.

 

Speaking at the DealBook Summit, Fink reiterated bitcoin’s role as protection against currency debasement and escalating government liabilities. Under his leadership BlackRock’s IBIT has become the firm’s most profitable ETF, underscoring mainstream institutional demand. Analysts say sustained sovereign accumulation could strengthen bitcoin’s structural floor and further blur the line between national reserve management and digital asset allocation.

〈CoinRank Daily Data Report (12/05)｜Kraken Partners With Deutsche Börse as Europe Moves to Challenge Wall Street in Digital Assets〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。

Memecoin PEPE’s official website was attacked, and users were redirected to malware.

BlackRock CEO: Some sovereign wealth funds bought Bitcoin during the recent crypto market downturn.

Lighter platform now offers spot trading, with ETH as the first depositable asset.

Memecoin PEPE’s official website attacked, users redirected to malware

 

The official website of Memecoin PEPE has been compromised by attackers and is currently redirecting users to malicious links.

 

Cybersecurity company Blockaid stated on Thursday, “Blockaid’s systems detected a front-end attack on the Pepe official website, which contained the Inferno Drainer malware.”

 

BlackRock CEO: Some Sovereign Wealth Funds Buy Bitcoin During Recent Crypto Market Decline

 

According to Forbes, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated that some sovereign wealth funds are buying Bitcoin during the recent price decline. Many sovereign wealth funds were on the sidelines, gradually buying Bitcoin as its price fell from its peak of $126,000.

 

Larry Fink stated that these funds are buying incrementally, increasing their holdings when Bitcoin’s price falls to the $80,000 range, aiming to build long-term positions.

 

Larry Fink also stated that if the US does not accelerate its investment in digitalization and tokenization, it risks falling behind other countries.

 

Furthermore, Larry… Fink predicts that cryptocurrency-driven tokenization will see “huge growth” in the coming years.

 

Lighter platform now offers spot trading, with ETH as the first depositable asset.

 

The crypto trading protocol Lighter announced on its X platform that it has launched spot trading, allowing users to deposit, withdraw, and transfer ETH, the first native asset on its Ethereum L2 platform.

 

Later this week, Lighter will enable spot trading and begin rolling out more markets.

〈CoinRank Daily Data Report (12/4)｜Lighter platform now offers spot trading, with ETH as the first depositable asset.〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。

Stablecoin market cap continues rising, showing on-chain capital has not exited the ecosystem, instead waiting on the sidelines for clearer market signals before re-entering risk assets.

ETF AUM dropped sharply after 10.8 but has slowly recovered, revealing the correction’s origin in traditional finance and the cautious stance of institutional capital.

VIX hovering between 15–20 signals uncertainty rather than crisis, supporting the view that current volatility reflects a mid-cycle reset instead of a true bear market.

Crypto markets remain in a mid-cycle bull correction as stablecoin supply hits new highs, ETF AUM stabilizes, and VIX stays in the 15–20 zone.

MARKET THESIS: THIS IS NOT A REAL BEAR MARKET

 

Let’s start with the conclusion: what we’re living through right now doesn’t really qualify as a crypto bear market. It looks far more like a mid-cycle reset inside a broader bull: a phase of aggressive shake-outs, forced deleveraging, and position rotation, rather than structural collapse. In other words, this is the kind of environment where the market is busy changing hands, not dying.

 

To get there, I’m not relying on a single narrative or one magic chart. Instead, I cross-check 3 sets of mid-term indicators: stablecoin market cap, spot Bitcoin ETF AUM, and the VIX “fear index”. Stablecoin supply tells you whether on-chain capital is actually leaving the arena or just sitting on the sidelines. ETF assets under management reveal what traditional finance is doing with its Bitcoin exposure. And VIX gives you a read on global risk appetite through US equities, which crypto still shadows more often than it likes to admit.

 

Previously, I went through stablecoins and ETF AUM in detail. This time the spotlight is on VIX, and then we put all 3 together to see what kind of market regime we’re really in.

 

WHAT VIX ACTUALLY MEASURES

 

VIX, often called the fear index, is derived from S&P 500 options and reflects the market’s implied volatility expectations over the next 30 days. The key word here is “expectations”: VIX is not a backward-looking measure; it’s the market’s collective guess about future turbulence in US stocks.

 

Why should crypto care? Because Bitcoin and the broader market still show a strong risk-on correlation with US equities, especially growth and tech names. When US risk assets de-risk, crypto almost never gets a free pass. That’s why some traders try to use VIX as a kind of “inverse indicator” for Bitcoin: elevated fear in stocks often means risk assets are under pressure, while falling VIX tends to appear in sustained bull environments.

 

In practical terms, there are a few rough VIX zones that many macro traders watch:

 

Below 15: strong risk-on conditions, usually associated with bull markets

15–20: choppy, indecisive, searching for direction

20–25: markets feel heavy, risk appetite is fading

Above 25: stress or outright bear-market behaviour

 

These ranges are not a trading system, and VIX itself can be violently noisy. A single shock can send it from the mid-teens to above 40 or 50 in a flash. That’s why it makes more sense as a mid-term indicator than a short-term timing tool: you care about the regime it signals, not every spike.

 

TESTING VIX AGAINST RECENT BTC MOVES

 

Before trusting any indicator, it’s worth checking how it behaved around real turning points. If you overlay VIX with recent Bitcoin price action, a few things become obvious.

 

First, you can clearly see the inverse relationship: when VIX pushes higher from the low-teens toward the mid-20s, Bitcoin tends to suffer; when VIX grinds lower toward calm levels, BTC usually finds room to run. For the key inflection dates I looked at, this inverse pattern shows up quite cleanly.

 

However, once you zoom in, the limitations appear. Before the sharp BTC drop around 10.8, VIX had indeed started to creep higher, hinting that equity markets were getting nervous. But the move wasn’t dramatic enough that you could point to the chart and say, “this is an obvious red flag, dump everything.” It was more like background noise that only looks meaningful in hindsight.

 

The same thing happened around the new down-leg that began near 11.10. Bitcoin turned lower first, while VIX only really picked up a few days later, around 11.13. There was one case where VIX moved more or less in sync with BTC, but the broader pattern is clear: as a mid-term regime gauge, VIX works reasonably well; as a short-term timing tool, it tends to lag.

 

So the takeaway is not “trade BTC off every wiggle in VIX”. The more realistic conclusion is: when VIX spends time pinned above 25, you are in, or close to, a real bear-market environment. When it ranges in the mid-teens to around 20, you are more likely dealing with corrections and chop inside a broader bull.

 

BEAR MARKET VS BULL CORRECTION THROUGH THE LENS OF VIX

 

This brings us to the question everyone actually cares about: is this a bear market or a bull-market pullback? Looking at VIX across cycles gives a pretty clear answer.

 

Go back to 2022, a textbook bear phase for both equities and crypto. VIX spent most of that time above 25, repeatedly spiking higher and struggling to stay below 20 for long. Every brief dip in fear was quickly reversed, and risk assets kept grinding down. That’s what sustained stress looks like on the fear index.

 

 

Now compare that with the current backdrop. Instead of living above 25, VIX has been oscillating in a 15–20 band, with several dips under 17.5 since 11.25. That’s not what “full-blown bear” conditions look like; it’s what you see when markets are cautious, but not panicking.

 

 

Then flip to the other side of the cycle. In a strong bull phase earlier in the year, VIX fell from elevated levels near 50 down toward the mid-teens between roughly April and October. The first major touch of the 25 line came in April, and that same month Bitcoin mostly chopped near local lows. It looked like the market was waiting for a macro signal. Only as VIX kept grinding lower from there did BTC kick off its largest bull leg of the year.

 

That contrast is important. In a true bear, VIX lives above 25. In a powerful bull, it spends most of its time sliding toward or below 15. Today we’re stuck in the middle zone, 15–20, which fits almost perfectly with the idea of a mid-cycle reset: not euphoric, not despairing, just uncomfortable.

 

STABLECOIN SUPPLY: DRY POWDER, NOT ESCAPE CAPITAL

 

VIX alone doesn’t tell the whole story, though. That’s where stablecoins come in. On-chain stablecoin market cap is still grinding higher and has recently printed new highs around 268.9 billion. If this were a true bear, you would expect a shrinking pool of stablecoins as capital exits the ecosystem entirely. Instead, what we see is that money is staying on-chain — just not rushing to chase every bounce.

 

In other words, a lot of participants have moved to “sit in stablecoins and watch” mode. They are not fleeing to fiat; they’re holding USDT, USDC, and other stables, waiting for better entry points. That behaviour is completely different from the “everyone rushes for the exit” dynamic of a real bear market.

 

This is why you can have painful drawdowns in prices without calling it a structural top. As long as stablecoin supply keeps trending up, the ecosystem still has ammunition. The problem isn’t lack of capital; it’s that capital is temporarily risk-off and patient.

 

ETF AUM: WHERE TRADITIONAL MONEY IS HIDING

 

If stablecoins represent on-chain sentiment, spot Bitcoin ETF AUM is the mirror from the traditional side. After 10.8, ETF holdings showed a clear and sharp decline, signalling that traditional investors were cutting exposure. By 11.25, AUM had fallen to its recent local low. Since then, there has been a modest recovery, but the bounce has been weak and hesitant.

 

That tells a pretty straightforward story: the current correction originates more from the TradFi side than from crypto natives. It’s traditional capital doing the de-risking, not necessarily long-time on-chain participants capitulating. ETF flows are still the main channel through which large regulated pools of capital express their Bitcoin views, so when those flows run negative, you feel it in price.

 

And yet, even there, we’re not seeing panic liquidation or a structural collapse in AUM, just a drawdown followed by a slow, fragile attempt at rebuilding. That fits nicely with the VIX signal: nervous, but not apocalyptic.

 

PULLING THE MID-TERM INDICATORS TOGETHER

 

Once you stack these three mid-term indicators, a coherent picture emerges.

 

VIX is hovering in the 15–20 band, signalling uncertainty but far from outright crisis. Stablecoin market cap is at a fresh high around 268.9 billion, meaning capital is still in the crypto arena, mostly sitting in stables and waiting. ETF AUM, after a notable drop post-10.8 and a low near 11.25, is attempting to claw back, but without much force.

 

Put differently: on-chain money hasn’t left, off-chain money has trimmed risk, and equity markets are cautious rather than terrified. That combination is very different from what you’d expect in a full bear. It looks like a bull-market correction driven largely by traditional outflows and macro uncertainty.

 

This is also why, in my view, forcing trades when the market has no clear direction is the easiest way to lose money. In a bull, being long risk makes sense. In a bear, being short or under-exposed is rational. But in this kind of mid-zone, the best trade is often to slow down, protect capital, and wait for better odds instead of pretending that every bounce or dip must be “the” bottom or “the” top.

 

Earlier this year, we saw a pattern where prices trended down for roughly two months and then chopped sideways for about another month before the next major signal appeared. We shouldn’t blindly copy-paste that timeline — markets don’t owe us symmetry — but it’s a useful reminder that consolidation phases can be both longer and more frustrating than most people expect.

 

WHAT TO WATCH NEXT: MACRO AND LONG-TERM SIGNALS

 

Finally, none of these mid-term indicators exist in a vacuum. The main driver behind this correction, in my view, lies in traditional finance: concerns around growth, liquidity, and the upcoming interest-rate path. Spot ETF outflows and equity de-risking are symptoms of that deeper macro story.

 

That’s why the next major rate-cut meeting will matter so much. It won’t just move bonds; it will reshape expectations for real yields, dollar liquidity, and risk appetite across the board. Once we overlay that with a proper set of long-term indicators — things like real rates, balance-sheet trends, and structural liquidity measures — we’ll get a clearer view of where this bull market really stands in the bigger cycle.

 

For now, the mid-term dashboard is saying: this is a bull market going through a reset, not a dead market. Stablecoin supply is still climbing, VIX is stuck in the middle zone, and ETF AUM is bruised but trying to stabilize. Until we see either a decisive improvement in macro data or a clear blow-off in fear, the most rational stance is patience: observe, prepare, and let the next set of signals develop before swinging for the fences.

 

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〈Crypto Still Bullish? VIX and ETF Flows Say It’s a Reset〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。