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Since November, BlackRock’s IBIT has seen $2.12 billion in net outflows, accounting for about 90% of total net outflows from U.S. spot $BTC ETFs over the same period. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for two consecutive weeks, totaling $2.35 billion: $1.07 billion from November 9 to 13, following $1.28 billion the previous week.

As of November 13 Eastern Time, the outflow streak had reached its seventh trading day, with cumulative outflows of about $1.71 billion since November 5. IBIT itself has seen net outflows for 11 consecutive trading days.

With 90% concentrated in a single product, this looks less like a modest retreat across the board and more like redemptions flowing through one outlet—the largest and most liquid product. The day IBIT’s outflows stop is worth watching more closely than the two-week total.

#比特币ETF #FundFlows

Glassnode data show that, as of November 14, the public keys for about 7.12 million $BTC have been publicly visible on-chain, representing 35.4% of the circulating supply—the highest level since the firm began tracking it. At the time of writing, with the price at $66,800, that amounts to about $476 billion.

Breaking it down makes it less alarming: 25.8% is due to address reuse, and 11.6% is in exchange addresses. These figures overlap and cannot be added together; the former exposure disappears once the coins are moved to a new address. The unresolved exposure comes from about 1.71 million coins in early P2PK outputs, around 1.1 million of which are held at addresses suspected to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto.

This looks more like a statistical milestone than a market-moving factor. CoinShares estimates that only about 10,200 coins are genuinely vulnerable in a way that could affect the market. Adam Back believes machines capable of deriving private keys are still 20 to 40 years away.

#比特币 #QuantumComputing

On Nov. 13, U.S. Eastern Time, $ETH spot ETFs saw net inflows of $2.357 million, while $BTC spot ETFs saw net outflows of $185 million, marking the seventh consecutive trading day of outflows.

Nearly all of the modest inflows came from Fidelity’s FETH, which brought in $11.6412 million in a single day. Grayscale’s Ethereum Mini Trust ETH saw $9.2842 million in outflows, leaving just over $2 million after the two sides offset each other. On the Bitcoin side, BlackRock’s IBIT saw $144 million in outflows in a single day.

Ethereum spot ETFs have total net assets of $10.854 billion, or 4.56% of Ethereum’s total market capitalization, and cumulative net inflows of $11.524 billion. Against a portfolio of this size, daily inflows of just over $2 million are practically zero. These figures don’t show that funds are flowing back into Ethereum; they only show that selling pressure is easing. Two things to watch next: whether net inflows stay positive for several consecutive days, and whether Grayscale’s outflow trend narrows.

#以太坊ETF #比特币ETF #Capital Flows

$BTC Spot ETFs had recorded net outflows for six consecutive trading days as of November 12, Eastern Time. They saw an outflow of $284 million that day, followed by another $185 million on the 13th, with the amount narrowing.

BlackRock’s IBIT was the main source of outflows on both days, with $204 million and $144 million, respectively. Fidelity’s FBTC ranked second on the 13th, with an outflow of $41.9 million. According to SoSoValue, IBIT’s cumulative historical net inflows still total $64.336 billion. As of publication on the 13th, total net assets across all ETFs stood at $89.556 billion, or 6.23% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT saw net inflows of $3.275 million on the 12th—not enough to make much difference.

Outflows are slowing, but the direction hasn’t changed. The major issuers are seeing outflows while smaller products are seeing inflows, which looks more like holders reducing their positions than switching between products. Next, we’ll see whether daily outflows continue to narrow in the next batch of U.S. data.

#比特币ETF #资金流向 #BlackRock

Bloomberg data shows that over the past year, there were 13 days when single-day liquidations exceeded $500 million ($BTC ), including three days above $1 billion. In the latest sell-off, about $1.3 billion in long positions were liquidated over 24 hours, mostly Bitcoin positions.

The number 13 by itself doesn’t tell us much; what’s worth noting is why liquidations have become more frequent. Bloomberg quoted industry insiders saying that high leverage, combined with macroeconomic shocks and thin liquidity before the European trading session opens, makes it easy for stop-loss orders to trigger in a chain reaction. It doesn’t take much bad news to cause liquidations—a pile of leverage and a thin order book are enough.

Another factor is where the money is going: some believe that buying the dip in AI stocks is more appealing than buying Bitcoin, and speculative capital has flowed into tech stocks. Spot ETFs have turned BTC into a macro asset, but the trade-off is that it now has to compete with other assets for the same pool of risk capital. I agree with this view, but we’ll have to wait until this round of AI-stock pullbacks is over to see capital flow back from tech stocks.

#比特币 #杠杆清算 #CapitalFlows

ARK Invest Head of Digital Assets Research Lorenzo Valente wrote on Nov 14 that Vitalik positioning $ETH as a store of value could be the biggest narrative shift since “ultrasound money,” yet the market has barely discussed it.

Of the five questions he listed, the hardest is the monetary commitment: ETH has no fixed supply cap, and its issuance curve is still open to debate; at the same time, it relies on ongoing issuance to fund its long-term network security budget. It is difficult for both of these things to coexist with predictable scarcity. Whether RWAs should be built on mainnet or L2, and whether quantum resistance should be moved up the roadmap, can only be discussed once this is settled.

He also said that a store of value depends on long-term social consensus. For Ethereum to compete with Bitcoin, it first needs to provide quantifiable metrics. Until its issuance policy is clearly defined, the SoV positioning sounds more like a narrative than a commitment.

#以太坊 #ETHStoreOfValue

An address labeled as being linked to the Ethereum Foundation has sold a cumulative 7,785 $ETH since October 26, for a total of about $16.35 million and an average sale price of $2,100. It sold 2,000 on November 13 (about $3.87 million), then another 1,000 on the morning of the 14th. According to monitoring by Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), the address still had its final 10,000 on the morning of the 14th, worth about $19.03 million.

The $2,100 average sale price tells us more than the cumulative amount: selling in batches while keeping the price so steady looks more like selling a set allocation according to a plan than making decisions in response to market movements. The remaining 10,000 are more than the amount sold so far in this round.

The report calls it an “address linked to the Foundation,” but doesn’t explain the specific relationship to the Ethereum Foundation or the basis for the label. Reading this as the Foundation itself dumping is an inference.

#以太坊 #On-chain data

Ethlabs wants to bring forward $ETH ’s post-quantum upgrade from 2028 to 2027, at the cost of pushing back faster block production. The Ethereum research organization proposed a “pqai27” roadmap on the Ethereum Magicians forum, arguing that quantum computing and AI are advancing too quickly, and that protocol upgrade priorities should shift from performance to security.

Specifically, it would withdraw its support for the Quick Slots proposal in the Hegotá upgrade and redirect resources to post-quantum development, aiming to take up shorter block intervals in 2028 instead.

This is a clear trade-off: address security gaps first, then focus on performance. The roadmap is still just a forum proposal; the coming months should make it clearer when it might reach testnets and which clients will support it first.

#以太坊 #抗量子 #protocol-upgrade

Coinbase Institutional, in its weekly report, attributed the recent drop in Bitcoin ($BTC ) to the Federal Reserve, not the Binance hack. According to them, both the October non-farm payrolls and CPI figures exceeded expectations, and the market had already fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in December, with a cumulative expectation of 64 basis points over the next 12 months.

More noteworthy than price is the stablecoin market: its supply decreased by $11.5 billion in the past 30 days, the largest drop in history. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw $1.44 billion in outflows in the five trading days before November 11th, with holders experiencing an overall unrealized loss of approximately $12.7 billion. Bitcoin has fallen below $73,000.

The contraction in stablecoins is more telling than ETF outflows; it reflects the level of buying pressure in the market, not the paper value of holdings. Coinbase's next target is $66,000 to $68,000, provided the price fails to consistently recover to $73,000.

#比特币 #稳定币 # Fund Flow

$BTC Infrastructure company Blockstream announced an institutional custody solution developed jointly with Thales on November 14: Thales’ hardware security module combined with Blockstream’s secure multiparty computation, with the full signing protocol executed inside the protected environment of dedicated hardware. CEO Adam Back said traditional MPC requires multiple devices to interact back and forth, making it too complex for fully offline cold storage.

This is a criticism of mainstream MPC architectures. The selling point of institutional custody is key sharding with no single point of failure; the trade-off is that devices must communicate during signing. Blockstream is betting instead on offline isolation. Back also noted that AI will help attackers find subtle vulnerabilities in complex implementations—a bad sign for solutions requiring extensive device interaction.

Neither customers nor a launch date have been disclosed. The next thing to watch is who will be the first to move a large position into it.

#比特币 #机构托管 #Cold storage

Robinhood’s crypto notional trading volume in October was $17 billion, down 48% year over year and 21% from September; average daily volume was $548 million, versus $713 million in September and about $1.05 billion a year earlier.

Customers aren’t leaving. Funded customers increased by about 130,000 to 28.9 million, net deposits were $15.1 billion, stock notional trading volume rose 2% year over year to $325 billion, and options contracts traded increased 8% to 289 million. The money is still on the platform; it’s just not going into crypto. Event contracts traded 5.9 billion times in October, up 136% year over year.

This looks more like the same users switching what they trade than retail investors pulling out altogether: $BTC fell from about $83,500 at the end of September to below $70,000 for the first time since August in the early hours of November 13. With the market going nowhere, attention shifted to election and sports contracts with clear expiry dates. Next, the question is whether average daily volume can return to September’s $713 million.

#加密交易量 #预测市场 #Robinhood

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong teased the upcoming launch of Coinbase Pro on X, but gave no timeline. He said the company has spent years pushing to bring stock perpetual futures to the U.S. in a compliant way. These products are currently traded only outside the U.S.

The product hasn’t launched yet, but compliance is already being touted. We’ll have to wait until launch day to see what Coinbase Pro actually adds.

#Coinbase #StockPerpetualFutures

Metaplanet cut its full-year 2026 revenue forecast from about $102 million to about $41.4 million, a 59.4% decrease, and lowered its operating profit forecast by 73.7%. The company said this was because mNAV remained below 1.0x, it did not issue shares at the originally planned scale, and both its Bitcoin purchases and Bitcoin Income fell short of expectations.

The model of buying Bitcoin by issuing shares at a premium stops working as soon as mNAV falls below net asset value. In the third quarter, it bought 11,000 $BTC , then sold 10,000 to demonstrate liquidity before buying them back; the sale resulted in a loss of about $122 million. For the first three quarters, net losses attributable to the parent company were about $173 million, compared with a profit in the same period last year. Holdings stood at 44,000 at the end of September.

The 52 billion yen convertible bond issued in October will be used primarily to repurchase shares, not to continue buying Bitcoin.

#比特币 #Metaplanet #Treasury company

Twenty One Capital reported third-quarter net income of $1.087 billion, including $1.093 billion in non-cash gains from the fair value of Bitcoin—more than its net income itself. As of September 30, the company held 43,514 $BTC , valued at $3.643 billion based on a price of approximately $83,700 each.

Of these, approximately 16,116 BTC were pledged as collateral for $486.5 million in outstanding convertible note principal. The company had $102.8 million in cash on its balance sheet. Its assets move with the price of Bitcoin, while its liabilities are fixed in dollars: gains are magnified when the price rises, and losses are too when it falls.

In his letter to shareholders, CEO Rapha Zagury said the company aims to build businesses that generate cash flow without relying on Bitcoin price appreciation, while also considering buybacks when the share price is below the value of the assets attributable to each share. Taken together, these statements show that the company itself knows its current earnings would not hold up if Bitcoin prices turned around.

#比特币 #财库公司 #Earnings

Kraken parent company Payward reported adjusted EBITDA of $60 million in the third quarter, down 67% year over year. In the same shareholder letter, the platform’s total profit of $487 million was down just 12%, while trading volume of $353 billion fell 30%.

Profits fell much faster than revenue. Funded accounts rose 37% year over year to 7.1 million: the number of accounts increased, but trading volume shrank 30%. EBITDA rose 163% quarter over quarter, which also shows that the second-quarter baseline was low. User growth has not translated into trading growth.

The company also plans to issue its own token and launch prediction markets, but has given no timeline. Bloomberg previously reported that the IPO could be pushed back to 2027. Next, watch to see whether trading volume can hold steady in the fourth quarter.

#Kraken #Exchange Earnings

Nakamoto reported third-quarter net income of $85.5 million, or $4.07 per diluted share, from a non-cash $110.4 million gain on changes in the fair value of digital assets. Total operating revenue for the quarter was negative $1.9 million.

As of September 30, the company held 4,283 units of $BTC , worth approximately $357.9 million, of which 3,030 units had been pledged as collateral. It had $19.4 million in cash and cash equivalents and $164.9 million in notes payable. On November 11, the company extended the maturity date of $60 million of the $165 million USDT loan from Kraken to December 4, 2027. No principal is due this year.

These profits came from revaluing the coin, not from operations. What truly supports the balance sheet is the 1,253 unpledged BTC and $19.4 million in cash, neither of which is substantial.

#比特币 #比特币财库 #Financial Report

In the third quarter, Jane Street increased its holdings in the Fidelity Bitcoin ETF from 886,700 shares to 7.01 million, nearly 8 times as many, with a quarter-end value of about $509 million. In the same 13F filing, BlackRock’s IBIT holdings fell from 24.88 million shares to 20.22 million, a decline of about 18.7%, leaving roughly $957 million.

Taken together, the two moves look more like the same $BTC exposure shifting among several ETFs than an exit: ARKB holdings also rose to 11.69 million shares, worth about $324 million.

Jane Street is a market maker, and a 13F is only a quarter-end snapshot. The filing doesn’t distinguish how much reflects proprietary positions versus market-making and arbitrage inventory. So this quarterly report can’t tell us whether the shares sold from IBIT were moved into FBTC. Until fourth-quarter 13F filings are released, it’s safer to read this as a portfolio adjustment than as a bearish signal.

#比特币ETF #Institutional Holdings

U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month over month in October, with core CPI up 0.3%. The market has fully priced in a Fed rate hike in December, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose 13 basis points to 5.125%. $BTC fell below $70,000 for the first time since mid-August, while more than $1.3 billion in crypto futures were liquidated over the past 24 hours.

Liquidations are just the result. From November 5 to 11, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw cumulative net outflows of $1.4379 billion. The amount withdrawn over a week says more about who is selling than a single day’s liquidation figures.

One more thing is looming at the end of the same month: MSCI will remove Strategy from its relevant indexes after the market closes on November 30. Passive funds that track indexes typically rebalance before changes take effect. In these remaining two weeks of November, selling pressure may come from more than just interest rates. To judge whether Bitcoin can hold above $70,000, I’ll watch for when daily ETF net inflows turn positive, rather than liquidation totals.

#比特币ETF #资金流向 #Federal Reserve

$BTC fell to a three-month low, dragging crypto-related stocks lower in U.S. premarket trading: Mara Holdings fell 3.5%, Coinbase fell 2.9%, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF fell 3.9%, and Riot and Hut 8 fell 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively.

Premarket trading is thin, and moves of this size often get repriced after the market opens.

#比特币 #Crypto-related stocks

At the end of September, BTCS had only $463,000 in cash on its books, yet owed about $64.1 million in loans on Aave. The loans were backed by 46,676 $ETH , valued at about $99.3 million using the $2,127 price published by the company itself, for a collateral ratio of 155%.

This Nasdaq-listed Ethereum treasury company has already been selling coins at a loss. CoinDesk calculates that Aave recognizes only 80% of ETH’s value as collateral, meaning a price drop to $1,717 would trigger liquidation. On November 13, ETH was trading around $1,950, only about 12% above that threshold. The company says selling coins is part of actively managing its collateral levels and health factor.

Almost all of its digital assets are pledged to a single DeFi protocol, leaving selling coins as its only way to free up funds. The next earnings report will show how much it sold and how much it lost—this time, the company only said the price was below cost and did not disclose the quantity.

#以太坊 #Aave #DeFi