BABA is up 5.77% today, trading at 120.78. In the past 24 hours, trading volume hit 34.85 million USDT. I took a quick look at the open positions: around 50,000 shares or so were added/cleared, and the funding rate was set to zero—no funding fees whatsoever. With such a big move, it’s surprising that the bulls didn’t pile in. This kind of picture hasn’t shown up on the tradfi perp side for a while.
Why did it suddenly spike like this? Old Dog mapped it back against the semiconductor/AI chain and it becomes clear: in the U.S. market, NVDA has been moving sideways around the 900 area for two weeks; MU surged above 130 and then withered back; AMD, meanwhile, looks like it hasn’t even fully woken up. Clearly, capital is flowing from the hardware end toward the application and platform layers. BABA’s cloud and AI model deployments just happen to sit right on this “overflow” zone—plainly speaking, it’s a delayed catch-up move.
The cycle position also supports this interpretation. Last October’s move pulled it from 80 to 115, then it consolidated for a few months. The value zone gradually lifted from around 90 up to 110. This time, breaking through 120 looks more like the start of a second phase, not the end of a wild sprint. A funding rate of zero is the most honest signal: neither side needs to pay protection fees. There isn’t a crowded, high-leverage setup artificially pushing it higher—so it’s not going to rocket just because of squeezed leverage. The OI level of ~50,000 on BABA is relatively moderate. I’ve watched the order book for a few days—there hasn’t been any sudden dumping of big orders piled up. It feels more like a steady, fragmented spot-buying pressure slowly nudging it higher. That kind of slow push is far more solid than a rally propped up by high funding rates.
The last time it had a similar “flavor” was July 2023, when BABA kept pulling up for ten-plus points and the funding rate was also pinned near the floor. Later, it surged to around 100 but didn’t hold and rolled over. Back then, the value zone was just a bit above 85; now the base is higher. Same script, but the outcome might not be the same.
Meanwhile MU: during its high-level consolidation, positions were shrinking both openly and quietly. Some money cut out to find value elsewhere. For BABA—an asset that didn’t fly on this kind of price action, whose narrative had just turned the corner—this time it caught the wave. A lot of people in the market are still calling the previous high as resistance, saying BABA can’t get past 125 and will drop back below 90. Old Dog is singing the opposite tune this time: the narrative of AI spreading from hardware to platforms has just begun. BABA isn’t “cheap,” but it’s also definitely not “expensive.” While capital seeks certainty, it also looks for places where the position structure is clean. A zero funding rate and evenly distributed buying orders are exactly what “clean” looks like.
My cost basis is 119.5—I took a bite and started probing with a light position.
Trading tag: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #BABA #BABAUSDT $BABA
Why did it suddenly spike like this? Old Dog mapped it back against the semiconductor/AI chain and it becomes clear: in the U.S. market, NVDA has been moving sideways around the 900 area for two weeks; MU surged above 130 and then withered back; AMD, meanwhile, looks like it hasn’t even fully woken up. Clearly, capital is flowing from the hardware end toward the application and platform layers. BABA’s cloud and AI model deployments just happen to sit right on this “overflow” zone—plainly speaking, it’s a delayed catch-up move.
The cycle position also supports this interpretation. Last October’s move pulled it from 80 to 115, then it consolidated for a few months. The value zone gradually lifted from around 90 up to 110. This time, breaking through 120 looks more like the start of a second phase, not the end of a wild sprint. A funding rate of zero is the most honest signal: neither side needs to pay protection fees. There isn’t a crowded, high-leverage setup artificially pushing it higher—so it’s not going to rocket just because of squeezed leverage. The OI level of ~50,000 on BABA is relatively moderate. I’ve watched the order book for a few days—there hasn’t been any sudden dumping of big orders piled up. It feels more like a steady, fragmented spot-buying pressure slowly nudging it higher. That kind of slow push is far more solid than a rally propped up by high funding rates.
The last time it had a similar “flavor” was July 2023, when BABA kept pulling up for ten-plus points and the funding rate was also pinned near the floor. Later, it surged to around 100 but didn’t hold and rolled over. Back then, the value zone was just a bit above 85; now the base is higher. Same script, but the outcome might not be the same.
Meanwhile MU: during its high-level consolidation, positions were shrinking both openly and quietly. Some money cut out to find value elsewhere. For BABA—an asset that didn’t fly on this kind of price action, whose narrative had just turned the corner—this time it caught the wave. A lot of people in the market are still calling the previous high as resistance, saying BABA can’t get past 125 and will drop back below 90. Old Dog is singing the opposite tune this time: the narrative of AI spreading from hardware to platforms has just begun. BABA isn’t “cheap,” but it’s also definitely not “expensive.” While capital seeks certainty, it also looks for places where the position structure is clean. A zero funding rate and evenly distributed buying orders are exactly what “clean” looks like.
My cost basis is 119.5—I took a bite and started probing with a light position.
Trading tag: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #BABA #BABAUSDT $BABA