XRP enters the final quarter of the year under heavy pressure after a significant sell-off, washing away nearly all previous gains. The downward trend in the fourth quarter is putting this altcoin at risk of ending 2025 with negative results.
Despite facing difficulties, there is still hope that the inflow of buying funds from investors may help reverse the trend before the year ends.
Retail XRP investors selling at a loss
Actual profit and loss data on-chain show that selling activity in the fourth quarter was unusually strong. Many XRP holders have sold off at a loss, indicating waning confidence. Typically, large investors tend to hold onto this token during market corrections, expecting a recovery rather than locking in losses.
However, this cycle is somewhat different. Selling at a loss shows increasing instability regarding the short-term outlook for XRP. This action reflects a risk-averse sentiment overshadowing long-term confidence, contributing to persistent downward pressure in the last quarter.
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The overall performance of XRP presents significant challenges. The current market cycle threatens to end a two-year streak of positive returns. In 2023, XRP increased by 81%, followed by a breakout of 238% in 2024 due to speculative buying pressure and greater legal clarity.
In contrast, 2025 saw a distinct weakening of the upward momentum. If the price remains as it is, XRP could end the year with a decline of about 11%. This reversal indicates that macroeconomic fluctuations and investor sentiment can alter any trend, even if history has been very positive.
Although prices are down, activity on the XRP Ledger in December has not been lively. Network data shows that the number of wallets transacting in the month reached a low of 34,005. This means that both retail and institutional investors are participating very little.
Increased trading is often accompanied by a sharp rise in buying demand. The low number of users may further push prices down due to low liquidity, reducing the actual practical appeal of the network. Weak activity at the end of the year may reflect preparation for 2026 rather than a short-term speculative mindset.
XRP is currently trading around 1.85 USD at the time of writing, down 11% from the beginning of 2025. To eliminate this loss, the token needs to recover to 2.10 USD. If it achieves this, XRP will likely end the year flat, continuing to maintain a positive performance from previous years.
Nevertheless, downside risk remains if the market experiences negative volatility. If the 1.85 USD level cannot be maintained, the price may retreat to the support zone of 1.70 USD. At that point, the bullish expectations would be erased, marking a negative year and extending the uncertainty into early 2026.
The recovery potential will depend on XRP maintaining the support level of 1.85 USD along with an increase in market participation. If it holds firm here, the price could bounce back to the 1.94 USD area. If it surpasses this resistance level, XRP could turn 2.00 USD into solid support, opening up the opportunity to target 2.10 USD.
