🌍 Crypto Market News ②｜Interest Rate Cut Expectations Rise, But Crypto Assets Become More Vulnerable

📌 Macroeconomic Background

U.S. Stocks Rise for 2 Consecutive Days

November U.S. Inflation Significantly Below Expectations

Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Increases, Strengthening the Logic of "Interest Rate Cut Trade"

📉 Changes in Interest Rate Expectations

Traders Expect:

Federal Reserve to Cut Rates by Approximately 64 Basis Points by 2026

Probability of a 25 BP Rate Cut in January Increases to 28.8%

🏛 Political Variables

Trump Clearly Signals:

👉 The Next Federal Reserve Chair Will Support Significant Rate Cuts

Market Concerns About the Independence of Monetary Policy Intensify

📌 Implications for the Crypto Market

Interest Rate Cut Expectations ≠ Unilateral Rise of Risk Assets

When Expectations Are Over-Traded, the Crypto Market Becomes More Prone to Severe Fluctuations. #比特币波动性 #巨鲸动向 $BTC $ETH