Despite Trump's directive to create a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, the market is reacting to this news with caution. The reason is simple: there is currently no official confirmation of how much BTC is actually held on the balance sheet of the U.S. government as a reserve, rather than as confiscated or seized assets. Without clear data, such statements are not perceived by the market as a full-fledged bullish factor. According to Polymarket rules, without direct confirmation from the government, this information is not counted.
At the same time, signals of institutional interest are appearing in the market. Bitmine has already achieved about 66% of its goal to acquire 5% of the total ETH supply. This is not a mass trend, but an indication that large players continue to cautiously build positions.
Investor sentiment
For several weeks, the overall sentiment remains tense. Most participants are pessimistic, as evidenced by comments, positioning, and expectations. Historically, such phases have often coincided with local minima, as the market tends to move against the majority. It is important to remember that in prolonged bearish phases, such signals can persist for a long time. Caution is still necessary.
Liquidity and range
According to Alphractal, Bitcoin is currently squeezed between two key liquidation zones:
— about $95,000 is concentrated in short positions;
— about $82,000 is concentrated in long positions.
In such conditions, the price often moves toward one of the liquidity zones before forming a more understandable trend. This explains the current tightness and sharp movements within the range.
Pressure on miners
An additional risk factor is the position of miners. Miner revenues have decreased by about 11% since mid-October with the increase in network difficulty. Such a discrepancy increases the likelihood of capitulation among some participants, which may intensify pressure on the price in the short term.
Conclusion
The market is in a phase of uncertainty and waiting for confirmations. On one hand — weak sentiment and pressure from miners, on the other — local interest from large players and price compression between key levels. For newcomers, it is important to understand that during such periods, the market rarely provides simple and quick solutions, and movement often begins when most are not expecting anything positive.
