$BTC — 2026 Outlook
My previous analysis for Bitcoin was published shortly before the end of 2025. At that time, I assumed that the yearly candle would close green and below the 2024 mid-high. Instead, the annual time frame shows a different scenario.
On the annual chart, three upward impulse waves are clearly visible, with deep pullbacks after the first two impulses. The third upward impulse that started in 2023 ended at the 2025 all-time high (126,199.63). The 2025 close with a red candle and a large upper tail indicates a higher probability of correction rather than immediate continuation of the upward move.
I assume we will still see a test of the 2024 mid-high (108,353.00), which lies just below the 50% tail of the 2025 annual candle (109,887.87).
In the first two weeks of the new year, there were attempts to break above the 2025 opening level at 93,576.00.
On the monthly chart, we have a gap between the October 2025 low (102,000.00) and the December 2025 high (94,588.99) — the lower boundary of this gap has already been tested during the first weeks of 2026. If this level is convincingly reclaimed, price may move toward 108,353.00.
If price moves downward, attention shifts to the 2026 opening level and the lower tail of the 2025 candle. The key zone remains the gap between the 2025 low at 74,508.00 and the 2021 all-time high at 69,000.00, which also corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the impulse from 15,476.00 to 126,199.63.
🎯 Key levels to watch
Upside scenario
Gap zone 94,588.99 – 102,000.00 → opens path to 108,353.00
109,887.87 → 50% of the 2025 upper tail (upper resistance area)
Downside scenario
2026 opening level — 87,648.00
Lower tail of the 2025 annual candle — 74,508.00
Main gap zone 74,508.00 – 69,000.00
(50% Fibonacci of 15,476.00 – 126,199.63)
and levels + gaps even lower remain possible if the main zone fails to hold
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