Key support and resistance levels

- Short-term support level: $84,850 (daily Bollinger Bands lower limit)

- Key watershed: $88,000 (EMA15 trend line + key daily closing price)

- Short-term resistance level: $89,500 (top pressure on the four-hour chart)

Technical signals

1. Daily level: MACD golden cross formed, price oscillating near the EMA15 trend line; if it closes above $88,000, it may trigger a short-term rebound to $89,500.

2. Four-hour chart: Clear divergence between volume and price (price is range-bound but volume is shrinking), KDJ shows a bearish crossover at a high level and is flattening out, indicating a standoff between bulls and bears, with a direction choice imminent.

3. On-chain Data: The net flow from exchanges remains outward, but whales are attempting to bottom out near $85,000, suggesting strong support below.

Market Sentiment and Risk Warning

- Institutional Movements: Citigroup predicts a 12-month target price of $143,000, but StrategyMSTR has lowered earnings expectations, intensifying short-term pessimism.

- Macroeconomic Pressure: A pullback in U.S. tech stocks has triggered a sell-off in risk assets, with Bitcoin's correlation to the S&P 500 rising to 0.78, indicating increased linkage.

- Extreme Risk: If it falls below the support of $84,850, it may trigger a stop-loss wave, with a target down to $78,000 (Citigroup's pessimistic scenario).

Operational Suggestions

- Short-term Bullish: Current price of $88,000 is a light position to go long, with a stop-loss at $87,500 and a target of $89,500.

- Confirmation of Breakout: If there is a volume breakout above $89,500, increase positions, targeting $94,200.

- Short Selling Opportunity: A rebound to the range of $90,500-$91,000 could be an opportunity to short, with a stop-loss at $91,500 and a target of $88,000.

- Risk Control: Total position should not exceed 30%, leverage should be ≤3x, and reserve funds should be set aside for extreme market conditions.

Conclusion

Today, Bitcoin is at a critical juncture for bulls and bears, with a focus on the closing price of $88,000 and changes in volume. It is advised that investors remain on the sidelines or participate with light positions, avoiding chasing highs and lows, and prioritizing waiting for directional breakout signals.