Key support and resistance levels

- Short-term support level: 830-820 USD (four-hour chart trend line + whale cost area)

- Mid-term support level: 790-780 USD (200-day moving average + historical dense trading area)

- Key resistance level: 890-900 USD (upper boundary of the daily level descending channel)

Technical signals

1. Daily level:

- MACD: Green bars are shortening, with double lines showing a golden cross signal, indicating a weakening bearish momentum.

- RSI: 47.55, in the neutral range, no overbought/oversold signals.

- Moving Average: The price fluctuates near the 50-day moving average (845 USD), while the 200-day moving average (800 USD) provides long-term support.

2. Four-hour Chart:

- Bollinger Bands: narrowing, price close to the middle track, waiting for directional breakout.

- Volume-Price Relationship: Shrinking trading volume indicates a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

3. On-chain Data:

- Net flow in exchanges is neutral, but whales continue to accumulate near $830, with total holdings exceeding 120 million.

Market sentiment and risk warning

- Institutional Views:

- Citigroup predicts BNB's target price of $1,100 in 2026, emphasizing the advantages of ecosystem growth and deflationary models.

- Some analysts warn that if it falls below the $820 support, it may trigger a wave of stop-losses, dipping down to $780.

- Macro Linkage:

- The correlation between BNB and U.S. tech stocks has risen to 0.62, caution is needed for potential risks from U.S. stock corrections.

- Extreme Risk:

- If it breaks above $900 with increased trading volume, it may open up an upward space to $1,000.

Operation Suggestions

- Short-term Strategy:

- Long Position: Try light long at current price of $858, stop-loss at $850, target $880-$890.

- Short Position: Set up around the $890-$900 range on a rebound, stop-loss at $910, target $860.

- Trend Confirmation:

- If it breaks above $900 with volume, add to positions, looking at $940-$950.

- If it falls below $820, go short, target $780.

- Risk Control:

- Total position not exceeding 20%, leverage ≤ 2x, focus on the impact of the evening U.S. PCE data on the market.

Conclusion

Today, BNB is in a state of balance between bulls and bears, with the short-term direction depending on the breakout of the $890 resistance or the validity of the $820 support. It is recommended that investors focus on range trading and wait for clear signals. If market sentiment warms up and the macro environment stabilizes, BNB is expected to continue its rebound; if it falls below key support, caution is needed to avoid risks.