Last week, the cryptocurrency market faced overall pressure, with major asset prices declining and investor sentiment leaning towards caution.
📉 Market dynamics summary for last week (12.13-12.19)
1. Overall performance: General pullback
· Bitcoin (BTC): Price around $87,700, with a weekly decline of nearly 5%. The market has support at $81,000 and is capped by resistance at $93,000.
· Ethereum (ETH): Price around $2,900, with a weekly decline of nearly 9%.
· Altcoins: Generally weak performance. Solana (SOL), BNB, and others followed the decline. Privacy coin Monero (XMR) is one of the few exceptions, rising 5% over the week.
2. Key Influencing Factors and On-chain Signals
· Macro and Liquidity: Investors remain cautious ahead of major central bank (Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan) decisions. After the Bank of Japan announced interest rate hikes, Bitcoin briefly rebounded to $88,000.
· Changes in Institutional Demand: Data shows that Bitcoin's spot demand growth has fallen below trend levels since early October. Additionally, over 17,700 BTC have flowed into exchanges in the past 10 days, which may indicate potential selling pressure.
· Market Sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index is in the 'Extreme Fear' zone (value 16). However, there has not been a real 'surrender panic' on social media, which could mean the market has not yet bottomed.
· Positive Signals for Ethereum: Contrary to market weakness, 'whale' addresses holding between 1,000 to 1 million ETH have been accumulating ETH since mid-November. At the same time, the number of new addresses on the Ethereum network has reached a new high for the year.
🔮 Next, Analysis of the Cryptocurrency Market Trends
Regarding the future market, opinions are clearly divided, and the direction in the short term may depend on key events and price level games.
1. Major Institution and Analyst Views
Different institutions have vastly different long-term outlooks for 2026, reflecting the current market's high uncertainty. Specific viewpoint comparisons:
· Bullish View
· Source Institution/Person: Citibank (Citi), Arthur Hayes (Co-founder of BitMEX)
· Core Views/Predictions: Citi gives a basic target price of $143,000 for 2026, with a bull market target of $189,000. Hayes believes that the Bank of Japan's policy will trigger a global liquidity trend, bullish in the long term to $1 million.
· Oscillating/Cautious View
· Source Institution/Person: Santiment Analyst, Galaxy Research
· Core Views/Predictions: The market may need to test the low point near $74,000 again to form a solid bottom. Bitcoin needs to hold above $100,000-$105,000 to regain upward momentum; otherwise, short-term risks lean towards the downside.
· Bearish Warning
· Source Institution/Person: Bloomberg Strategy Analyst Mike McGlone, CryptoQuant
· Core Views/Predictions: Warning that in extreme cases, Bitcoin could deeply correct to the $10,000 range in 2026. Data shows that demand growth is slowing, marking the market has entered a bear market phase.
2. Short-term Trend Observation Points
In the coming weeks, the following two key points may determine the market direction:
· Options Expiration Impact: A large number of options will expire on December 26, which may suppress short-term volatility and lock in prices. After this date, the market may welcome a turning point.
· Key Price Level Game: $81,000 (market's true average price) is an important structural support level. If effectively broken, it could trigger a deeper correction. To the upside, it must first break through and remain above $95,000.
💎 Summary and Core Recommendations
In summary, the current market is in a fragile balance of bullish and bearish forces. Short-term trends are dominated by macro uncertainties, derivatives expirations, and technical factors, but positive signals displayed on the Ethereum chain are worth noting.
Operational Ideas:
· Short-term Investors: Should remain highly cautious. Focus on market performance after the December 26 options expiration and the effectiveness of the $81,000 support level. Avoid high-risk betting before a clear direction appears.
· Long-term Investors: The current range can be seen as an important observation area. If you believe in the long-term narrative of Bitcoin and crypto assets, you can start to pay attention to market signals while testing the lows and consider a staggered layout strategy to diversify risks.
