Key event timeline for this week
The following are the main events and their core highlights arranged chronologically:
December 22 (Monday)
· Event: Multiple project airdrops open
· Core highlights/potential impacts:
· Aster opens the fifth phase of the “Crystal” airdrop, allocating a total supply of 1.2%.
· Espresso opens airdrop registration, covering millions of addresses.
· Bitway (BTW) launches Booster activity on Binance Wallet.
· Impact: May attract short-term capital participation, increasing the activity of the related ecosystem, but a large release of tokens may also lead to selling pressure.
December 23 (Tuesday)
· Event: U.S. third quarter GDP data release
· Key Points / Potential Impact:
· Publisher: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
· Market focus: The data will reveal the actual growth strength of the U.S. economy. If growth exceeds 3% for two consecutive quarters, it may raise questions about the Fed's previous rate cut rationale, influencing future rate policy expectations.
· Impact: Strong data may reinforce expectations of 'higher rates for longer,' putting pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies; conversely, it may boost the market.
December 24 (Wednesday)
· Event: U.S. initial jobless claims data for the week, U.S. stock market early closing
· Key Points / Potential Impact:
· Labor market data is a key reference for Fed policy.
· Stock markets in multiple European and American countries enter Christmas holiday arrangements, and trading volume usually declines.
December 25 (Thursday)
· Event: Christmas holiday, Uniswap governance vote conclusion, unlocking of certain tokens
· Key Points / Potential Impact:
· U.S. stock market closed.
· Uniswap 'UNIFICATION' proposal voting deadline: This proposal includes burning 100 million UNI tokens and activating a fee mechanism, which could significantly impact the UNI price if passed.
· Large token unlocks: For example, Plasma (XPL) and Humanity (H), with a total value exceeding $26 million, may increase selling pressure in the market.
December 26 (Friday)
· Event: Large-scale Bitcoin options expiration
· Key Points / Potential Impact:
· Scale: Approximately $23 billion in Bitcoin options expiration, accounting for more than half of the open contracts on major platforms.
· Market sentiment: The current options market positioning shows that investors lean towards bearish, betting on future downside risks.
· Impact: Such a large-scale expiration is very likely to exacerbate market volatility in the short term, becoming one of the most important sources of volatility this week.
💡 Comprehensive impact and market outlook
In summary, the market this week will be influenced by three intertwined forces:
1. Macro data setting the tone: GDP data (23rd) is key. If the data is strong, it may weaken rate cut expectations and suppress the crypto market; if the data is moderate or weak, it may solidify easing expectations, providing support for the market.
2. Internal division in crypto: Options expiration (26th) and Uniswap vote (25th) are two major internal variables. The former may trigger significant market volatility, while the latter may reshape the valuation logic of leading DeFi protocols.
3. Holiday liquidity environment: Thin trading during Christmas week is a 'double-edged sword.' It may amplify the market's reaction to the above events, leading to sharp price fluctuations.
Overall, the cryptocurrency market is in a period of high uncertainty and potential volatility this week. Short-term traders should focus on the GDP data on the 23rd and the market dynamics around the options expiration on the 26th. Long-term investors should pay more attention to the structural impacts brought by significant governance changes in core protocols like Uniswap.
