Family! Who understands! Last Wednesday, I privately synchronized my ETH prediction with an old friend in the circle, which directly hit the market trend accurately! For those who missed the live broadcast, don’t worry; this article is full of valuable insights, thoroughly explaining the subsequent layout logic. If you miss it, you might have to wait for another cycle!
First, let me recap my judgment logic for everyone. This is not hindsight; it is all based on solid market analysis: On December 16th, I told my friends who were paying attention to ETH that there was a high probability of a quick pullback of about 5%. The support range was seen at 2750-2800, and as long as the 2700 level could hold steady, the bottom of this pullback would basically be established.
So, what do you think happened? On December 17, ETH directly staged a sharp drop, with a daily decline of 4.75%, and the lowest point accurately hit 2775! It just landed right in the middle of the support range I provided, with an error of less than one point! Those who were syncing messages with me at that time probably had already secretly positioned themselves at the low, isn't this rhythm perfectly controlled?
After discussing the predictive review, let’s talk about the core logic of the current market. The policy developments in Japan, which have been the focus of everyone's attention these days, have now landed. In the short term, the negative news that can cause significant market fluctuations has basically cleared, and the short-selling momentum has been released enough. There won't be any sudden negative news disrupting the rhythm. Under these circumstances, the market is likely to shift from a correction to a stable fluctuation, even slowly opening a recovery channel. Therefore, at this stage, you can actually start preparing to enter the market slowly, without the previous panic of chasing highs and cutting lows.
Regarding the most concerning profit expectations, my view remains unchanged: in the medium to long term, there is still ample room for ETH to rise, with a target of seeing a fourfold increase. Based on this low point of 2775, the target would be 11100. However, I must point out a key divergence; my timing judgment differs from many peers in the industry. Many believe that the peak will be concentrated around mid-year, but my exclusive judgment is that the peak is likely to appear in the first quarter of next year, while the ultimate peak for the year is more likely to fall at the end of the third quarter.
Why do I make this judgment? The core still looks at the industry cycle and capital rhythm: in the first quarter of next year, there are many favorable expectations in the industry, and capital will enter the market early to speculate, giving rise to a wave of temporary peaks; looking at the whole year, after the second quarter's fluctuation and digestion, the overall industry ecology may welcome a new breakthrough by the end of the third quarter, at which point capital will again concentrate in the market, pushing the year's peak. Remember this time window; you can verify it against future developments.
Lastly, let me say something from the heart: when investing in cryptocurrency, we are chasing medium to long-term returns, not short-term small profits. There is no need to be flustered by one or two days of fluctuations. At this point, it is suitable to lay out positions in batches, rather than going all in. After all, the market always has uncertainties, and leaving a safety margin for yourself is the right way.
All of the above are my personal views based on market data and industry logic, and do not constitute any operational advice. Everyone should consider their own risk tolerance when buying and selling. If you find my analysis reasonable, don’t forget to give a follow @帝王说币 #巨鲸动向 $BTC
