CF Benchmarks: BTC as a portfolio's underlying asset and a price of up to $2.95 million by 2035. Given its current price and chart, of course, one wants to respond "are you kidding me!".
CF Benchmarks index provider (subsidiary of #Kraken, FCA-regulated company) has published a detailed analytical report that considers #BTC not as a speculative instrument, but as a full-fledged element of long-term portfolio allocation.
A key shift indicated by CF Benchmarks is that institutional investors are increasingly analyzing BTC through the lens of capital market assumptions, just like stocks, bonds, and commodity assets: expected returns, volatility, correlations, liquidity impact, and macro factors.
The main conclusion of the report is that BTC can be assessed and integrated into a portfolio using the same models as traditional assets, rather than through cycles of "hype and panic."
Long-term price scenarios until 2035 #CFBenchmarks:
- Bearish scenario. BTC continues to grow at historical rates and captures 16-33% of gold's market capitalization.
Target price: $637,000.
- Basic scenario. More active institutional adoption, BTC reaches about 1/3 of gold's market capitalization. Probability-weighted estimate: about $1.42 million.
- Bullish scenario. BTC becomes the dominant global store of value, surpassing gold in capitalization. Estimate: about $2.95 million.
Why do these figures even make sense in their model?
- fixed supply of BTC,
- increasing share in the global "store of value" market,
- sensitivity to global liquidity,
- deepening of spot and derivative liquidity,
- gradual decrease in volatility as institutionalization occurs,
- low correlation with stocks and bonds.
According to CF Benchmarks, allocating 2-5% to BTC can significantly improve portfolio efficiency:
- expands the optimal risk-return frontier,
- increases expected returns at comparable risk,
- improves diversification due to low correlations.
An important emphasis of the report is that this is not about short-term forecasts or "tomorrow's price." BTC in this logic is a structural asset whose value is determined by adoption rates, monetary environment, and regulatory maturity, not by current bearish sentiment or retail hopes for growth.
CF Benchmarks actually captures what the market is gradually experiencing in practice. BTC ceases to be exotic and is increasingly viewed as a strategic element of a portfolio, rather than a gamble.
