(Daily + 4H | Structure + Liquidity + OB + FVG + Timing)
1️⃣ The big picture (Daily Bias)
The overall trend is down within a wide descending channel.
The price is below the main averages → seller control.
Any current rise = corrective unless the daily structure is broken.
Trend judgment: Bearish Bias established.
2️⃣ The medium structure (4H Structure)
A clear break of the accumulation pattern/converging triangle within a downtrend → Bear Flag confirmed.
Broken support near 88,000 turned into first resistance.
Conclusion: Resumption of the bearish trend is the likely scenario.
3️⃣ Liquidity (Liquidity Map)
Key Sell-side Liquidity:
Pivot low 80,600 (Liquidity magnet).
Buy-side Liquidity:
Nearby highs 90,000–92,000 have not been absorbed with absorptive behavior.
Key information: The market rarely reverses confidently before a clear liquidity event.
4️⃣ Indicators (without excess)
RSI(6): 17–24 → Oversold does not mean reversal.
Price below EMA 7/25/99 → Short and medium momentum is bearish.
Smart reading: Indicators support the trend, do not give an entry signal.
5️⃣ FVG & Order Blocks
Effective Bearish FVG: ~ 88,800–90,000 (Rejected).
Valid Bearish OB: ~ 89,500–91,000 (Source of displacement).
Bullish OB: Not present yet (no Sweep + no Displacement).
6️⃣ Execution scenarios
🟥 The strongest scenario (Smart Money – likely)
1. Drop/Test 80,600
2. Clear Liquidity Sweep (Wick + Absorption)
3. Bullish Displacement
4. Formation of Bullish OB + Bullish FVG
Buy only here.
Targets: 88,300 → 90,000 → 92,000
Invalidation: Close below the Sweep low.
🟧 Alternative scenario (Sell)
Weak bounce towards 88,800–90,000 (FVG/OB)
Clear price rejection
Selling from supply.
Targets: 85,000 → 82,000 → 80,600
Invalidation: Close firmly above 91,000.
7️⃣ Final recommendation (Clear Call)
❌ No buying now
❌ No late selling
✅ Wait for the liquidity event then execute according to the scenario
Best trade now: patience.
Execution starts after the market speaks, not before.
🏁 Summary in a single line
The trend is bearish, bounces are sold, and buying is postponed until liquidity is withdrawn and displacement is confirmed.
