After ten years of cryptocurrency trading, from being a naïve follower of trends to now being an experienced trader who only makes moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum, I have finally grasped the survival rules of this industry.
I still remember 2017 when I was mesmerized by a project that claimed to be a 'cross-chain myth.' The white paper was filled with revolutionary slogans, and the roadmap was so grand that it made my blood boil. I jumped in heavily without even checking the code repository, watching my account balance double in a short time, feeling like a genius. But what happened? The project team didn't update a single line of code for six months, the coin price went to zero, and I lost more than half of my principal.
Back then in the crypto circle, a white paper could ignite passion. Looking back now, it wasn't that the market was too crazy, but that we were too naive.
First, the market does not lack money; it lacks value that people are willing to pay for.
Now people still talk about "the market lacks money, so altcoins can't rise." To be honest, this viewpoint is outdated. Money has always been there; it's just that smart money has increased and is no longer willing to pay for castles in the air.
In the early years, project parties could survive by making grand promises, but now if you shout "disrupt the industry," veteran investors' first reaction is to check GitHub commit records and analyze on-chain data. Those projects that only shout slogans without doing real work can no longer deceive people.
I once spent an entire night studying the codebase of a popular project and found that there had only been a few sporadic commits in the last three months, mainly for document updates. For such projects, no matter how loud their marketing is, I won't invest a single penny.
Second, the two major flaws of altcoins make it difficult for them to turn around.
The reason altcoins struggle to make progress lies in two fatal weaknesses.
First, there is serious homogenization. Many new projects boast about "high performance" and "large ecosystems," but it's just old wine in new bottles, with no substantial technological breakthroughs or real application scenarios. To put it bluntly, it's just a name change to harvest investors.
Second, there is a valuation bubble. Projects are hyped to sky-high prices before they have even landed, and the launch is the peak; retail investors stepping in are just taking over. The valuation in the primary market has exhausted the growth potential for the next three to five years; how can such projects have sustained trends?
Third, my strategy has completely changed: focus on the mainstream, quick in and out.
After ten years of bull and bear cycles, my trading strategy has completely changed.
Give up on the long-term faith in altcoins. I now only look for swing opportunities among large-cap coins, just like surfers only choose those big waves with sustained momentum.
Discipline is more important than talent. Set strict stop-loss lines, immediately exit if the momentum is not right, and never fall in love with a position. In the cryptocurrency market, surviving is more important than making a lot of money.
Keep a close eye on macro liquidity. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is more effective than any project narrative. The first thing I do every day when I wake up is check U.S. Treasury yields and changes in the balance sheet; this is much more practical than studying a certain altcoin's white paper.
Stay clear-headed about meme coins. I will only participate with a very small position as "entertainment" and never treat meme coins as serious investments. Recognizing their gambling nature will prevent you from getting hurt.
Fourth, the market has become a battlefield of cognition; survival relies on clarity.
The current market has long transformed from a cognitive lowland into a battlefield of cognition. Surviving relies not on luck but on surpassing market cognition, ironclad discipline, and a clear self-positioning.
I have seen too many people blindly chasing "hundredfold coins" and ultimately losing everything. In reality, what is most valuable in this market is not how many hundredfold coins you catch, but preserving your principal and continuously accumulating.
Occasionally, new users ask me which altcoin might become the next Bitcoin. My answer is always: first learn to make stable profits with Bitcoin and Ethereum before considering other opportunities. If you can't even walk, don't think about flying.
The windfall for altcoins may come again, but only those who respect market rules and wash away the lead can truly seize opportunities. In today's crypto circle, living long is more important than making quick profits.
This world does not lack stars; it lacks longevity. Follow Ake to learn more firsthand information and precise points in the crypto circle; become your navigator in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH
