As an analyst who has been navigating the on-chain world for many years, I have always believed in one principle: the reversal of major trends is never determined by the short-term noise of news, but is hidden within the technical structure of monthly charts. Recently, there has been a heated debate in the market about the 'failure of the four-year cycle', but my conclusion is very clear: the journey of this bull market from the low of 15,600 in 2022 to the high of 126,200 in 2025 has already ended, and the current market is operating within a bear market channel on the monthly level.
1. The law of cycles has not failed; it has only changed its face.
Many people say that the involvement of ETFs and the dominance of institutional funds have caused the four-year cycle to fail, but I believe the essence of the cycle has never changed—only the rhythm and participants have changed. Historical data shows that the supply contraction effect brought about by halving is still present, but it has been diluted by the macro interest rate environment (such as high federal funds rates) and the large inflows and outflows of institutional funds. For example: after the halving in April 2025, Bitcoin surged to $120,000 in July, but fell below the $90,000 mark continuously after October; this 'peak then crash' pattern is highly similar to the gradual decline structure after the bull tops in 2017 and 2021.
The key difference is: previously, retail investors' FOMO drove 'sharp peaks and rounded bottoms,' now institutional reallocation causes 'wide tops and steep bottoms'—but the characteristic of declining highs in a bear market is already evident on the monthly chart.
2. The truth about the bear market: lows can rebound, but highs must decline.
I agree that 'the bear market does not drop every day, but the rebound highs keep declining.' The typical characteristics of the current market are:
Weakening rebound sustainability: The rebound strength after the two lows in November (88800, 80600) has gradually weakened, and the most recent rebound failed to break through the October high.
The zero trend of the MACD at the monthly level: The MACD fast and slow lines on the monthly chart are closing in on the zero axis, and the histogram is continuously shrinking, which is a signal of major momentum exhaustion. Historically, only when indicators fall back to the vicinity of the zero axis and oscillate to bottom out can a new cycle be nurtured.
Liquidity stratification intensifies: institutions use ETFs to sell high and buy low, while retail investors are drained by MEME coins, and market funds cannot form a consensus, causing each rebound to become an opportunity for cashing out.
3. Short-term opportunities can be seized, but do not misjudge the trend.
Regarding the possible lows next week (78800-74600 range), I see it as a phase bottom rather than the end of the bear market. The logic is:
With liquidity tightening at year-end, the main force needs a 'year-end red envelope market' to attract followers.
On-chain data shows that the cost of short-term holders is concentrated in this range, making it easy to trigger a technical rebound.
But please note: This type of rebound cycle lasts about 1 month and is essentially a continuation of the decline. In terms of operation, one can take small positions to bet on rebounds, but strict stop-loss measures must be maintained to avoid getting trapped in trades. The true bottom of a bear market needs to meet two conditions: the monthly MACD returning to the zero axis + the stablecoin market cap ratio breaking 10% (currently only 8.5%), and these two points are far from being achieved.
4. In conclusion: Respect the cycle, surviving is more important than getting it right.
The market is never short of smart people, but lacks 'fools'—those who acknowledge that trends are irreversible and only seize certain opportunities. In the current environment, preserving cash, reducing leverage, and patiently waiting for the monthly level to bottom out is the core strategy. Remember this: 'A bull market is a festive banquet, while a bear market is an exam for survival.' Cycles never sleep, but you need to survive until the next dawn.
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