Oh dear, brothers, I am Mig.
Just now, when I was making tea, I accidentally shook my hand. It wasn't the heat; it was the shock of staring at the ETH 4-hour chart. With this trend, I seem to be smiling on the surface, but inside I'm thinking MMP, we've reached an absolutely critical juncture.
Is it going to take off directly to hit 3150 or even 3320, or is it going to turn around and plunge to test 2800? This isn't a technical issue; it's a life-or-death question for retail investors. Come on, Mig will explain it clearly for you.
First, let's talk about the news; this is not a perfunctory statement, it's cut to the chase:
The Americans are going to release two nuclear data points this week: CPI and employment report. This directly determines whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates next year or take back their words.
The market is like a madman; it gets scared to death at the mention of 'inflation may rebound.' When the dollar strengthens, global risk assets will be under pressure. What’s worse is that on Friday there is an 'index rebalancing,' which simply means that trillion-dollar funds will be forced to adjust their portfolios and sell stocks. This level of withdrawal often triggers liquidity tension and panic selling across all markets.
So, don't just look at ETH's own K-line; the thunder from outside is already on the way.
Back to ETH, the key is this one position: $3150.
My view is very clear: this is the dividing line between bull and bear at the daily level. The 4-hour chart looks like a rebound, with MACD golden cross below the zero line, like a warrior ready to charge. But in front of it is a wall of tempered glass called 3150.
If it can break through 3150 with volume and stabilize: then the script changes to 'short squeeze,' with a short-term target directly at 3260-3320. But! When it reaches that range, I will be the first to shout: 'Brothers, prepare for short positions!' Because that is another strong resistance zone, a high-cost performance speculation point.
But if it stalls again here at 3150: then this rebound is 'Don't go, fellow villager.' The daily trend will turn bearish. The first stop below is the psychological level of 3000; once it breaks, the supports at 2900, 2800, or even 2700 will be tested one by one like paper.
Mig's personal opinion: This is not simply 'breakout bullish, breakdown bearish.' Before the critical U.S. data is released and index rebalancing is completed on Friday, it's hard for the market to have a real directional momentum to substantially break through 3150.
The current rebound is more likely a 'standoff and inducement before the news,' aiming to wash out floating positions and accumulate strength for direction. Even if it briefly pierces 3150, against the backdrop of external liquidity facing contraction threats, it's hard to stabilize and open up space for upward movement.
Therefore, my personal core prediction is: the market is more likely to follow a 'rally-then-fall' script this week, that is, once again under pressure below or near 3150, turning to test the support strength in the 3000-2900 region.
True trend opportunities will only become clear after the external macro uncertainties are resolved this week.
So what should we retail investors do?
Don't chase the highs: it's risky to jump in now, better to miss out than to make a mistake.
Focus on 3150: consider following in short positions only after a solid breakout, targeting 3260-3320.
Be cautious if it breaks below 3000: if it drops and the rebound is weak, consider reducing positions or hedging risk.
Don't be greedy, operate in batches: you can try shorting near resistance, but always set stop-losses; retreat if it breaks.
I know many people are now afraid of missing out and getting trapped; I can understand their feelings. I have also walked the path of retail investors, once unable to sleep while watching K-line charts. But now I've learned: there are always opportunities in the market, but the principal only comes once.
If you often feel lost in the market, not knowing when to enter or when to run, you can follow Mig; he will announce daily coins and entry points in the chat room!
