Brothers, I am Mig.
Just looked at the K-line, and my back went cold—ZEC one-hour chart, the MACD double line is directly below the zero axis, and the dead cross opening is getting larger and larger; this is not a joke.
Plus, there's a shocking piece of news: the Bank of Japan will decide to raise interest rates to 0.75% in the next couple of days, a new 30-year high! With these two things colliding, how will ZEC move tonight? Let me break it down slowly.
In terms of news, it's not that simple!
Many people think, 'What does the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike have to do with my crypto world?'—this thought is very dangerous. Once the yen continues to raise interest rates, global arbitrage funds will flow back to Japan, and as liquidity tightens, high-risk assets like US stocks, Asia-Pacific stocks, and cryptocurrencies will be the first to be sold off.
This is not a guess; it's a script that has been repeatedly played out in the interest rate hike cycles over the past few decades. So, don't just look at technicals; when the macro environment tightens, trends are often harsher than indicators.
Technical analysis: ZEC has entered the 'downtrend confirmation zone'.
MACD falling below the 0 axis + death cross = Bears control the rhythm, any rebound is just an opportunity for you to escape or add to your short positions.
Upper pressure: 438 is the short-term lifeline, 479 is practically the ceiling. Without significant good news or volume, wanting to break through? Difficult.
Lower support: The first level is 353, if broken, look at 300. I'll be direct: 300 is not the endpoint, it's a psychological barrier, and if it really gets there, emotions may have already collapsed.
Mig's personal opinion: I think the possibility of ZEC reversing and surging directly tonight to tomorrow is less than 20%. A more likely scenario is: a weak rebound to around 438, then continue to drop; directly decline to around 353 and struggle; if the news about the Bank of Japan raising interest rates is confirmed, coupled with panic emotions, 300 may not hold.
I know many people are waiting to 'bottom-fish', but the bottom is not guessed; it is walked out.
Remember one thing: in a downtrend, bottom fishing is like catching a flying knife with bare hands — you are very likely to miss the knife and end up with blood on your hands.
What should retail investors do? I have three practical suggestions for you:
Still holding: If the rebound doesn't exceed 438, reduce your position! Don't fall in love with the trend.
For those wanting to bottom-fish: Hold on! Wait for the daily chart to show a clear stop-loss structure before acting, don't rush to all in.
For those watching with no positions: You are the smartest, hold on. The market is never short of opportunities; what is lacking is capital.
I know you are feeling uncertain and anxious while watching the market. I also started as a small retail investor, experienced liquidation, and missed opportunities. If you often can't see the direction clearly, buy and it drops, sell and it rises, follow Mig. I share real-time analysis and operational strategies every day, no fluff, just the truth.
If you don't know the specific entry timing and exit points, and the fans holding positions can follow Mig, who will announce the daily coins and entry points as well as exit timings in the chat room!!
