The price of XRP has tested our patience for weeks. The currency has dropped by about 18% over the past month and around 4% in the last twenty-four hours. It spent most of its time stuck in a narrow range, making the last few weeks seem dull and frustrating.
But the final step reveals something that previous attempts did not show. The chart signal and the change in behavior of the holder now indicate a rebound that may have enough support to sustain it.
A new signal indicates that buyers may be returning.
XRP has been trading between $2.28 and $1.98 since late November. This range shows that buyers and sellers have been balanced equally. However, the lower side of this range recently produced something new. The price touched the lower trend line of a symmetrical triangle. A symmetrical triangle forms when buyers and sellers slow down at the same rate, often indicating aggressive movement.
The first strong evidence comes from the volume trend. Between December 6 and 11, the price made a lower low, but the On-Balance Volume (OBV) made a higher low.
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OBV measures whether volume is flowing into or out of the currency. When the price drops but the clear price rises, it shows hidden accumulation. This usually means someone is buying the dips even when the chart looks weak. This is the first sign of a potential bounce attempt.
This combination of triangle support and OBV divergence indicates a return of early buying pressure.
Why this bounce could finally continue if selling pressure continues to subside.
A clean bounce, if it occurs, also needs less selling pressure. Long-term holders, often the strongest group in any currency, sharply reduced their sales. On December 3, they were transferring 101,083,156 $XRP . By December 10, this number had decreased to 51,157,301 XRP. This represents about a 49% reduction. They are still net sellers, but selling pressure has started to ease at a noticeable pace.
The third most interesting evidence comes from the fastest moving wallets. These holders often sell short-term XRP bonds at every attempt that destroys momentum. But this time, they are cutting supplies. This is evident from the HODL Waves metric, which shows the supply held based on the age of the group.
The group operating over 24 hours held 1.89% of supplies on December 2. By December 10, this number dropped to just 0.22%.
The push from day to week peaked at 3.88% on December 4 and dropped to 1.24% as of December 10. This removes speculative pressure that usually weakens bounces.
When long-term holders sell less and very short-term holders (speculative cash) exit the market, it allows price recoveries to continue.
XRP price levels that will confirm or break the XRP bounce.
XRP is trading near $2.00 and remains within the broader range between $2.28 and $1.98. For the bounce to gain strength, XRP must first surpass $2.17. This level, which is about 8.37% higher, is the checkpoint that determines the next push. A daily close above it improves the chances of testing the upper range.
Moving above $2.28 will confirm a break of the range. This will allow the price of XRP to aim for a rise finally.
On the negative side, the risk is close. Closing the daily candle below $1.98 weakens the entire bullish setup. If that breaks, the chart opens a path towards $1.88. This is the next major support.
