The price of Ethereum has increased by 6.7% in the last 24 hours and is trading near 3,320 USD. This movement follows a confirmed breakout pattern on December 3, which still points to a target of 3,710 USD.
However, currently, the signals showing both positive and negative indicate that the bullish trend may take longer.
The breakout structure remains solid while bullish signals are approaching
The price of Ethereum continues to move within the same inverse head-and-shoulders breakout structure that formed in late November, while the movement remains valid after December 3, as the support level at the right shoulder of 2,710 USD is still maintained. Therefore, this structure will weaken only if ETH drops below this level
The key factor now is the upcoming bullish crossover signal between the EMA 20 period (Exponential Moving Average) and the EMA 50 period. The EMA, or Exponential Moving Average, is a tool that tracks prices by giving more weight to the most recent candlesticks.
Typically, a bullish crossover often reflects that the buying group is gaining strength and buying pressure may continue in the same direction. Thus, this factor could push the price of ETH higher to reach the anticipated target of 3,710 USD
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However, this crossover phenomenon can occur only if the selling group does not return to the market, while one of the on-chain indicators shows reasons to be cautious.
Increased paper profits provide an opportunity for profit-taking
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) of Ethereum is a measure of profit 'on paper' held by all ETH wallets. When the NUPL value rises, each holder has more reason to sell as they hold more unrealized profits.
The NUPL of ETH has climbed to 0.296, pushing into the Optimism–Anxiety zone. This is the highest value since the beginning of November.
The last time NUPL touched a similar level — on December 3 — ETH dropped about 5.2% within two days as holders took profits.
Currently, there is a similar pattern observed, with the ability to increase profits further, while ETH continues to move near resistance. This results in the possibility that some holders may sell before the bullish signal fully occurs, and if it does happen, this signal may fail, and momentum may stall. Even though the breakout structure remains, this is why it is necessary to wait longer
Key price levels for Ethereum: What opens the way to USD 3,710 and what hinders it
If the bullish signal is complete and NUPL pressure remains limited, the price of Ethereum has a clear upward path as follows:
The 12-hour closing price above USD 3,390 is the first signal
The next resistance is at USD 3,570
Breaking through USD 3,570 will fully open the way to USD 3,710, which is equivalent to a 20% target from the breakout point
But if selling pressure increases, the existing structure will weaken. ETH is still considered to have bullish signals if it stays above USD 2,710, but if it drops below USD 2,610, it could mean a deeper correction.
Currently, ETH is between two driving forces, namely the bullish signal that may push towards USD 3,710 and the increasing paper profits that may cause a delay. In the next few sessions, it will determine which side will lead the market.
