Important economic data of the United States during the period from December 15 to 19, 2025 is placing Bitcoin at a crucial turning point. Analysts are divided into two camps between concerns over a severe correction and hopes that the Federal Reserve's policies will help mitigate future impacts.
New data from the Bank of Japan set to be released this week adds volatility to Bitcoin, as the market assesses a 98% chance that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 75 basis points on December 19, which often results in a drop of 20-30%.
U.S. economic data that crypto traders need to watch this week.
While Bitcoin's price is moving close to the psychological level of 90,000 USD, macro signals will play a crucial role in forecasting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and short-term price direction this week.
The following U.S. economic data may impact the market in the third week of December.
Non-farm employment in the United States – Tuesday, December 16 at 8:30 AM ET
The November non-farm payroll report marks the first overall picture of labor conditions in the U.S. since September, and remains an important data point for the market's assessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction into 2026.
Most forecasts indicate that employment will slow significantly, with only 50,000 positions added, down from 119,000 in October, while the unemployment rate may rise to 4.5% from 4.4%.
Recent private sector employment data has shifted sentiment towards a weaker direction, with the latest ADP report indicating a contraction of 32,000 positions, further strengthening expectations that labor market momentum is slowing faster than anticipated.
Investors are therefore focusing on NFP data as a decisive factor, especially when Bitcoin is moving within a narrow range near 90,000 USD.
If the numbers come in higher than expected, it may lead the market to anticipate that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, which would pressure BTC down to the support zone of 85,000 USD. However, if the report is weak, particularly with numbers below 40,000-50,000 positions, it would further support a dovish outlook and open the opportunity for Bitcoin to recover to 95,000 USD or higher on hopes of liquidity returning.
Overall, sentiment remains cautious, with many parties emphasizing the risks of strong movements in a thin liquidity environment.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits – Thursday, December 18 at 8:30 AM ET
The weekly initial jobless claims data is another U.S. economic figure to watch this week, as it reflects the immediate tension in the labor market, showing the number of U.S. citizens filing for unemployment insurance for the first time in the previous week.
Claims for the week ending December 13 are expected to be at 223,000, down from the previous week which had 236,000, with the prior number having jumped significantly from 192,000.
The significant increase recently is seen as a sign of new fragility in the labor market, leading to higher expectations for interest rate cuts and providing positive momentum for Bitcoin, even as BTC's price dipped below 90,000 USD briefly before bouncing back.
Most traders believe that the increase in unemployment claims is beneficial for crypto, linking the cooling labor market to the possibility of the Federal Reserve easing policy more quickly.
For the report to be announced on Thursday, if the number exceeds 230,000, it will bolster positive sentiment and support BTC to rise. However, if the number comes in below 220,000, it may dampen hopes for rate cuts and pressure BTC's price down to around 88,000 USD.
Many traders view the data as neutral to slightly positive in the current macro picture, but they also warn of price volatility if the market returns to the behavior of 'selling on news' again.
CPI for November – Thursday, December 18 at 8:30 AM ET
The most important U.S. economic data this week appears to be the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the November CPI report delayed from its original schedule due to the U.S. government shutdown of 46 days, which is deemed highly significant this week.
Overall inflation is expected to rise slightly to 3.1% year-over-year from 3.0%, while core CPI is expected to hold steady at 3.0%.
Although inflation remains significantly above the Fed's 2% target, if the data signals a slowdown, it could lead to expectations for rate cuts accelerating sooner than March.
Comments on X are varied but lean towards bullish: If it comes in below 2.8%, it risks pushing the market into risk mode, pushing BTC up to 95,000 USD, while a report exceeding 3.2% risks selling pressure from a hawkish perspective, potentially pushing prices down to 85,000 USD.
Since the U.S. inflation data coincides with critical factors from central banks worldwide, such as the possibility of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates, many traders view CPI as the most important liquidity indicator at this time.
When combined with labor data, it may determine whether Bitcoin will break up high or continue to oscillate near 90,000 USD.
