‼️Reminder: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time, followed by Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM. Market volatility is expected.

Key Points to Watch

- Time: Interest rate decision will be announced on December 10 at 2:00 PM Eastern Time (03:00 Beijing Time on the 11th), and Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM (03:30 Beijing Time).

- Main market expectation: A 25 basis point rate cut to 3.50%-3.75%, with a probability of 93%, likely presenting a hawkish rate cut (raising the threshold for future rate cuts simultaneously).

- Key focus: Dot plot adjustments, number of dissenting votes (expected 2-4 votes against), balance sheet operations (or proposing a monthly short bond purchase plan of 45 billion), Powell's statement on the interest rate path for 2026.

Predictions on the Impact of Cryptocurrency Market

1. In line with rate cut expectations: Weaker dollar + liquidity easing, reducing the cost of holding crypto assets, boosting mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH, which may push prices up and enhance activity in DeFi and staking; combined with policies facilitating institutional participation, further amplifying upward momentum.

2. Hawkish rate cut/maintaining rates: Suppressing market risk appetite, dollar rebound, mainstream cryptocurrencies likely to retrace, sensitive altcoins like SOL and XRP may experience more volatile fluctuations, potentially triggering large liquidations.

3. Clear divergence in the decision: A high number of dissenting votes leads to policy confusion, with funds likely favoring large-cap cryptocurrencies like BTC, while small coins see valuation divergence due to intensified capital withdrawals, amplifying fluctuations in market trading volume.

(Ensure risk control, closely follow policy trends to avoid pitfalls) #美联储利率决议 $BTC $ETH