puppies风来

The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 87.6%, but it is not a final decision. The next two data releases this week are the most critical, as they point to the two core pillars of the rate cut decision: employment and inflation.

Will weak employment data (ADP) force the Federal Reserve to act quickly, or will stubborn inflation data (PCE) keep it on the sidelines?

December 3 (Wednesday)

· Event: November ADP Employment Report ("Little Non-Farm")
· Importance: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
· Impact: The only private employment data before the December meeting, a core leading indicator of the labor market. An increase of 42,000 is expected; if the data is weak, it will significantly strengthen the urgency for a rate cut.

December 5 (Friday)

· Event: September Core PCE Price Index
· Importance: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
· Impact: The inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve pays the most attention to. An annual rate of 2.9% is expected. If it exceeds expectations (like the previous value), it will suppress or delay rate cut expectations.

December 9-10

· Event: Federal Reserve December FOMC Meeting
· Importance: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
· Note: Decision on interest rate policy.

💎 Summary

Simply put, you need to remember: the most important inflation data (September PCE) will be released on December 5 (Friday). Together with Wednesday's ADP employment report, it will become the most important clue in the final and most critical "data fog" for the Federal Reserve to assess the economy before the December meeting.
$BTC $RLS $ZEC #加密市场观察

Many people are confused about today's market crash. There isn't anything major happening, right? The Federal Reserve hasn't said anything about not lowering interest rates? And no major figure has called Bitcoin garbage. So why has it dropped like this?

Because of Japan. Simply put, this is a bloodbath triggered by "repaying debts."

The core issue is that the yield on Japanese government bonds (JGB) has risen to 1.01%, the highest point in 17 years. With JGB soaring like this, interest rates need to rise. If they don't raise rates, Japan is finished.

This is quite frightening: global financial giants are rushing to repay their debts before Japan raises interest rates. So why can a small interest rate hike in Japan cause panic among global giants?

Because previously, the yen was super cheap, almost interest-free, and the big players specifically borrowed yen to buy various high-risk assets, like U.S. stocks and—our cryptocurrencies! Although the risks are high, the bigger the waves, the more valuable the fish.

Now Japan is saying: I'm going to raise interest rates, you need to pay back your money, and the interest won't be cheap!

The money they worked hard to get may not even be enough to cover the interest—who wouldn't panic? As a result, global financial giants have no choice but to sell off their coins to repay their yen "debts."

And that's how we ended up here today!
$BTC #加密市场回调

December's Crypto Market Life and Death: QT Ends + Fed Game, Every Step Determines Rise and Fall!

🔴 December 1: US QT Ends! Risk Assets Welcome Epic Good News

This is the core turning point of the current economic cycle, where the market switches directly from 'volume contraction internal competition' to 'stock competition + incremental expectations'. This is a significant boost for risk assets, and the implicit easing cycle has started ahead of schedule.

🟡 Fed's Quiet Period Approaches!

During the quiet period, Fed officials will completely stop public speaking, leaving only three key speeches + core data this week as the basis for the December rate cut expectations. After the quiet period ends, the market's pricing for rate cuts will essentially be 'frozen', and the subsequent volatility will significantly narrow.

🟢 December 2 09:00: Powell's Speech Determines Life and Death

Even entering the quiet period, Powell's statements remain the market's 'stabilizing force'. With QT ending, the market is extremely eager for him to clarify the subsequent policy tone—will it continue the preventive rate cut approach, or will it watch inflation rebound? If he deliberately releases hawkish comments to suppress rate cut expectations in response to the positive effects of halting QT, risk assets like Bitcoin may face a sharp decline in the short term.

🔵 December 2 23:00: The Most Hawkish Bowman Testifies! Her Softening = Rate Cut Expectations Soar

Bowman's position softens, her value far exceeds that of five ordinary dovish officials. If even this hawkish core figure acknowledges the easing of employment and inflation pressures, it means the Fed's hawkish camp has been pierced by real data, and rate cut expectations will be completely ignited.

🟣 December 3: Small Non-Farm Data Shock! Weaker than Expected = Crypto Frenzy.

This month's major non-farm data is missing, the importance of small non-farm data has soared, becoming the core basis for judging the US employment situation. Weaker than expected data = rising rate cut expectations; stronger than expected is likely to be interpreted as 'data distortion', which will not change the easing trend.

🟤 December 5: Lagging PCE Shakes the Scene! Old Data Can Also Disrupt the Rate Cut Situation

Although lagging by two months, the trending significance of this data cannot be overlooked. If the data is weaker than expected, it will further consolidate confidence in rate cuts; if it shows signs of inflation rising in September, even if it is old data, it will be used by hawks to hype 'fiscal stimulus may restart inflation', interfering with the market's judgment on the December rate cut.
$BTC $TNSR $MBL #加密市场观察

Today (December 1) the core reason for Bitcoin's flash crash: pure technical slaughter

1. High-leverage long positions faced concentrated liquidation: a flash crash of 4.3% during the Asian session, with 400 million USD in long leverage liquidated within 2 hours, and another 300 million cleared at the opening of the U.S. market on Monday, hunting for stop losses.

2. Institutions and whales synchronized in reducing positions: spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 180 million USD for five consecutive days; whales sold 10,000 BTC.

3. Market liquidity continues to dry up: thin liquidity over the weekend + global dollar tightening, with yen arbitrage liquidation directly draining the crypto market.

In short: pure leverage liquidation + institutional exit, no other new news. Short-term oversold (RSI<30), regarded as a washout opportunity, but with high volatility.
$BTC $GIGGLE $TST #加密市场观察

Breaking news: Hassett just stated that if President Trump nominates him to succeed the Chair of the Federal Reserve, he would be very willing to accept.

Such a clear public allegiance makes it difficult for the understanding king to not support him.

Hassett has consistently advocated for more aggressive interest rate cuts and loose monetary policy. If he is elected, the market generally expects the pace of interest rate cuts to accelerate, which could have a positive impact on the market performance of risk assets like U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies.

This is very good news for the crypto market.
$BTC $币安人生 $GIGGLE #加密市场观察

🚀 The Ethereum Fusaka upgrade is imminent, $ETH is it a ride on the waves to a new high, or a bold ambition that ends in failure? Success or failure hinges on this one move!

On December 4th at midnight Beijing time, the Ethereum upgrade details are as follows:
Data optimization + Blob capacity surge,
L2 transaction fees plummet by over 70%+⬇️
Node synchronization speeds also soar, ETH ecosystem efficiency doubles!

💡 The key points are:

✅ Blob capacity doubles → L2 costs drop significantly
✅ Data availability optimization → Network runs smoothly
✅ Node synchronization acceleration → Ecosystem reacts faster

📈 Where are the opportunities?

· Leading L2 tokens (ARB, OP, etc.) are worth paying attention to
· Ecological DEX and lending protocols may explode
· Gas-sensitive applications (blockchain games, social) benefit directly

⏳ The era of efficiency has arrived, are you ready?
$ETH #ETH走势分析

Next week's crypto market life-and-death situation! 5 major heavyweight events set the direction:
The Federal Reserve's shift, Ethereum's core upgrade, and non-farm data hitting all at once, any one of which could ignite the market. Both holders and non-holders must keep a close watch!

December 1 (Monday): The Federal Reserve's QT finale! Is a liquidity flood coming?

The Federal Reserve officially stops quantitative tightening today! This means that the "money-sucking machine" that has been continuously draining market funds is completely shut down, and massive liquidity may flow back into risk assets—could the macro policy bottom for cryptocurrencies be solidified?

December 3 (Wednesday) 00:00: Warning of suspension for two major cryptocurrencies!

Optimism (OP) and Metal DAO (MTL) will simultaneously initiate network upgrades and hard forks, with major exchanges like Binance clearly suspending deposits and withdrawals! Users holding assets should make arrangements in advance; will there be a revaluation after the upgrade? Get ready for some market movements!

December 4 (Thursday): A dual nuclear event in the crypto circle!

At 5:49 AM: Ethereum Fusaka upgrade godly moment.

The most crucial scaling upgrade of 2025 is here! Optimizing data availability and increasing Blob capacity will directly cause Layer 2 transaction fees to plummet by more than 70%, significantly improving node synchronization speed—doubling the efficiency of the ETH ecosystem, and the L2 track may collectively celebrate. Don't miss the opportunity to ambush!

On the same day: SEC's heavyweight statement! Is equity tokenization going to be compliant?

The U.S. SEC Investor Advisory Committee held a meeting focusing on the regulatory framework for "equity tokenization"! This is the first time traditional regulators have directly focused on it. Is this a signal of crypto assets integrating into traditional finance, or the prelude to a new round of regulatory tightening? It will directly determine market risk appetite!

December 5 (Friday) 21:30: The ultimate judgment of non-farm data.

The core basis for the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision! Non-farm data above expectations = dollar strengthens = bearish for crypto; data below expectations = rising interest rate cut expectations = Bitcoin and other risk assets take off. This night may directly determine the direction of the December crypto market, with volatility maxed out!

Next week's crypto market is simply a "god-level fight" catalyst for market movements! Each event could trigger significant fluctuations. Which event do you think will ignite the market? Is it the Ethereum upgrade driving ecological explosion, or the Federal Reserve's shift igniting the bull market spark?

The cryptocurrency market has risks; investment requires caution.
$ETH $SKY $AT

On December 1st, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak, focusing on 3 core signals:

1. Powell's "interest rate cut statement": whether he mentions the "number of interest rate cuts in 2026" and "timing of interest rate cuts"; a dovish (loose) stance would be very positive, while a hawkish (tight) stance would be negative.
​
2. Details on QT stopping: whether he mentions "whether to restart the balance sheet reduction"; if he clearly states a "long-term pause", liquidity easing expectations will be stronger;
​
3. Attitude towards inflation: whether he emphasizes that "inflation still has repeated risks"; this statement is the "trigger" for market fluctuations. Any unexpected remarks will amplify volatility.
$LSK $ALCX $SKY #鲍威尔讲话 #加密市场观察

Just now, U.S. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins made a significant statement:
"We will build a truly reasonable regulatory framework for Bitcoin and the entire crypto industry.
"The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has turned a new page."

This is a real shift in policy.
In the past four years, Gensler forced countless projects to move to Singapore and Dubai with a "law first, ask later" approach; now, Atkins has directly used clear rules to bring innovation and capital back to the U.S.

He has categorized crypto assets into four types:
Digital commodities like Bitcoin fall under the CFTC, NFTs and functional tokens are completely exempt, and only tokenized securities with real investment contracts are regulated by the SEC.
In other words, 90% of projects no longer have to be anxious.

The more intense changes are yet to come.
In 2026, the SEC will formally propose amendments to the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, allowing compliant crypto assets to trade directly on exchanges and ATS; while also introducing customized disclosure exemptions and safe harbors, transforming the coin issuance process from "life or death" to "following the rules."

This is not a relaxation of regulation, but rather a transformation of gray areas into clear tracks.
Fraud will still be zero tolerance, but innovation is no longer a original sin.
The U.S. has truly entered the game this time.
Not just shouting slogans, but writing "the global crypto capital" into the official agenda.

This wave of policies has directly categorized crypto assets into a "life and death ledger," with the top three beneficiaries as follows:

1. Bitcoin (BTC)
Completely classified as a "digital commodity," the SEC has fully released control, and the CFTC takes over. Institutions no longer have compliance concerns, spot ETFs continue to expand, and this round of major upward movement has just begun after the halving.
2. Ethereum (ETH) and other Layer 1 public chain tokens (SOL, $AVAX , $SUI , etc.)
As long as they are sufficiently decentralized, they will be treated as "digital commodities." Staking does not equal securities, and institutions dare to boldly list and open spot ETFs, with capital directly maximized.
3. High-quality DeFi and RWA tokens ($AAVE , MKR, ONDO, PLUME, etc.)
Safe harbors and customized disclosures are here, and coin issuance will no longer be subjected to blanket SEC lawsuits. Compliance costs will plummet, institutional-level funds will dare to enter, and TVL and token prices will rise first as a courtesy.
#美SEC推动加密创新监管 #特朗普加密新政

On December 1st, Binance will use 50% of the transaction fees of $GIGGLE directly for market buybacks! The tokens bought back will all be injected into Giggle Academy—half will be permanently destroyed to achieve deflation; the other half will be used to fund free education for children worldwide.

Generally speaking, this should go up a bit. Not saying new highs, but doubling should be no problem.

If not, just consider it my good deed to support the kids.
#加密市场观察

The president of the European Central Bank has repeatedly stated: "Bitcoin has no intrinsic value."

However, the facts are ruthlessly contradicting this—
from 2013 to now, the amount of Bitcoin that can be exchanged for 1 Euro has shrunk by more than 99%, meaning that the Euro has depreciated by over 99% against Bitcoin.

In the context of fiat currencies being continuously overissued and inflation eroding purchasing power, to sneer at Bitcoin is a stark irony.

History will provide the answer:
When traditional currencies lose value day by day, perhaps the true store of value that withstands the test of time is the Bitcoin they deride as "worthless".
$BTC $币安人生 $MBL #加密市场观察

$币安人生 Last night surged by 50%, reportedly because it will go live on the spot market on December 1st. If true, it will at least set a new high. Even if not, doubling is not a big problem.

It's important to know that this coin is a top player in the meme coin space, which initially exploded due to the phrase "Enjoy a Binance Life," creating a myth of a short-term increase of over 67,000 times, and even a like from CZ can make it soar. If the news of going live on the spot market is confirmed, with the support of Binance's ecosystem traffic, breaking the previous high of $0.517 is practically a sure thing; even if the positive news does not meet expectations, given the current market enthusiasm and capital consensus, a doubling or so is also solid!

Respect to the first entry.
#加密市场观察

When will the bull market arrive? When everyone is silent.
When does the bull market end? When the aunties at the vegetable market are talking about coins.

Has this round of the bull market ended? If there are the following signals, then it is highly likely to have ended.
1. The market crashes but is met with cheers, shouting that the opportunity to buy the dip has come.
2. Institutions and whale addresses begin to continuously reduce holdings, and on-chain data shows that funds are quietly flowing out.
3. Cryptocurrency has become an absolute social hotspot, with discussions spreading to the general public outside the circle.
The most direct point is, are your friends around you discussing things about the coin circle?
4. The number of active addresses on-chain shows explosive growth, with a large influx of newcomers into the market.
5. The most important point is, have you heard the aunties at the vegetable market discussing Bitcoin? I haven't yet!

Have these signals come now? Not yet! So, the bull market is still on!
#加密市场观察 $BTC $KITE $BANANA

Yesterday, Eric Trump publicly stated in an interview that President Trump is a "genuine enthusiast of Bitcoin" and that the entire Trump family strongly supports Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

How can they not support it? They've probably cut countless investors in the process. If I were them, I would love it too.

Speaking of this, the investors of these two coins, $TRUMP and $WLFI , can relate the most.
$BTC #特朗普加密新政

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 85%, but a cut of 50 is also not impossible.

Because among the 12 votes the Federal Reserve has—5 have quietly shifted towards 50 basis points. The November minutes clearly stated 'greater force.' Moreover, the dovish Hassett is the most likely candidate to become the next chair of the Federal Reserve.

The impact of a 25 basis point cut aside, just looking at the 50 basis point cut:

Quantitative tightening would go straight to zero, liquidity would instantly surge, the dollar would retreat, and risk assets would welcome the strongest wave of momentum.
Many remember the 50 basis point cut last September: Bitcoin doubled in 30 days, and the US stock market surged by 8%.
This time, the starting point is higher, and the firepower is stronger.
The key is that currently, the pricing for a 50 basis point cut is less than 10%, and hardly anyone is guarding against it.
As long as employment or wages are slightly weak in the non-farm payrolls on December 5, the probability could flip overnight.

85% is the obvious signal, while 10% is the hidden line.
At 3 AM on December 10, the Federal Reserve will say:
Either proceed as planned, or directly open the floodgates.
Which side do you want to stand on?
There is still time to choose.
(This is for information sharing only, not investment advice. The market has risks, and one must be cautious when entering.)
$ORCA $AT $BTC #加密市场观察

Breaking News: Vitalik states that Ethereum will shift from "broad scaling" to other directions.

Targeted optimizations will be made next year:

- Gas limit increased by 5 times
​
- Gas costs for high-intensity on-chain operations are 5 times higher

The goal is simple:
To provide higher throughput for real users.
Reduce resource waste caused by inefficient contract operations.

This is protocol-level optimization
That can unleash a trillion-dollar scale kind of effect.

$ETH is not stagnant but is upgrading and moving towards the next era. #加密市场观察

Today, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 84.9%. It has dropped from 95% in mid-October to 32%, and now it has almost returned to the starting point.
This month's market basically fluctuates up and down with this probability, and everyone's mood is also fluctuating.

Let's take a look at what this probability has been over the past month:
Mid-October: 95%-97%
October 29: 68.4%
November 14: 50.7%
November 19: 32.8%
November 21: 39.1%
November 22: 72%
November 24: 69.4%
November 25: 82.9%
November 27: 84.7%-85%

It's hard to evaluate.

Currently, the most important data for a rate cut in December is the core PCE price index for October to be announced on December 5 (0.2% is the ideal value).
If ≤ 0.2% → rate cut is almost certain
If ≥ 0.3% → no rate cut is almost certain
$ZEC $DASH $OM #美联储重启降息步伐

$ZEC Grayscale has submitted the Zcash spot ETF application documents.

If successful, it is expected to be available for trading as early as the first to second quarter of 2026. This will become the first ZEC ETF in the United States.

The likelihood of this application being successful is relatively high—Grayscale has previously successfully transformed GBTC and ETHE into ETFs, possessing mature operational experience.
#加密市场观察

The Fed's balance sheet reduction is finally about to hit the pause button.

Note that this does not mean a return to excessive liquidity, but rather that they are no longer 'sucking liquidity' out of the market. For assets like BTC, the tightening of liquidity is no longer a concern, which itself is a key turning point.

Looking back at this correction, BTC dropped from 120,000 to 80,000, more like a clearing of high leverage and overheated sentiment in the market, rather than a fundamental shake-up. On the eve of a liquidity turning point, such a deep squat seems more like preparation for a new phase of the market.

History is a mirror: In 2019, when the Fed stopped reducing its balance sheet and shifted to easing, BTC soared from $3,000 to $13,000. Once the direction of liquidity changes, the underlying logic of the market changes.

What will happen next?
In the short term, an immediate V-shaped rebound back to 120,000 is unrealistic; the market is more likely to repeatedly consolidate within the 78k-93k range, exhausting the shaky positions.
However, if we extend the timeline, under the dual influence of halting the balance sheet reduction and future interest rate cut expectations, the downside potential is likely less than the upside breakout potential.

So, don't be trapped by short-term panic. This round of decline may not be the end, but rather a reshuffling. The truly important signal—the liquidity turning point—has quietly appeared.
$BTC $DASH $OM #加密市场观察

🚨Breaking News: The number of unemployment benefit applications in the United States has been released!
Actual value: 216,000
Estimated value: 225,000
Previous value: 220,000

Lower than expected, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates may decrease, which is considered negative. However, there hasn't been much reaction in prices, perhaps because people have experienced a lot and have become indifferent.
$ZEC $DASH $OM #加密市场观察