Old Dog has been staring at the AMDUSDT contract all night, and the numbers on the screen have been hovering around 511. It's dropped 6.48% in the last 24 hours, currently sitting at $511.49, with a trading volume of 33 million—nothing to sneeze at, but the real eye-opener is in the funding rate. It's surprisingly positive at 0.0223%, not huge, but it hasn't budged all day. With this kind of drop, bulls are still dutifully paying the bears, a situation I'm familiar with, and it doesn't look good.
Following this line, I took another look at the open interest, which is hanging at 17,500 contracts—not a significant drop compared to yesterday. This means the bulls haven't run for the hills; in fact, some might even be adding to their positions. The funding rate staying positive during this downturn, coupled with open interest not decreasing, indicates there's a lot of buy orders stacked up, hoping to catch a rebound. I've seen this structure too many times; real acceleration in the downtrend often hides when most think it can't drop any further. AI chip expectations have been chewed up repeatedly, and the overall sentiment in the semiconductor sector is retreating. $AMD 's situation feels a bit like a drunk being held up; it looks stable, but the knees are weak. The market keeps saying AI demand is unquenchable, but prices don't lie, and that 6-point red candle has shaken the narrative a bit.
My judgment is straightforward. The bulls are crowded, but no one is waving the white flag; this bottom is likely not in yet. If $AMD effectively breaks below the 500 mark, Old Dog will clear out the last bit of my position and flip to a light short, targeting around 480. If it can gain volume and reclaim 525, then that would signal the real washout is over, and I’ll re-enter, not greedy with half a position. What's contrary to consensus is that most analysts say this adjustment is technical and a chance to add to positions. But looking at the funding rate, I feel the bears haven't even started to exert their power; a real liquidation wave might be on the horizon.
Last year, the chip sector had a nearly identical play, dropping for three days without the funding rate turning negative, and on the fourth day, a spike sent the bulls into a chain reaction of liquidations. Old Dog didn’t trust the hold then and got taken out for over three points. This time I'm shaking in my boots; I’ll sit on the bench and watch closely before making a move.
Trading tags: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #AMD #AMDUSDT $AMD
Following this line, I took another look at the open interest, which is hanging at 17,500 contracts—not a significant drop compared to yesterday. This means the bulls haven't run for the hills; in fact, some might even be adding to their positions. The funding rate staying positive during this downturn, coupled with open interest not decreasing, indicates there's a lot of buy orders stacked up, hoping to catch a rebound. I've seen this structure too many times; real acceleration in the downtrend often hides when most think it can't drop any further. AI chip expectations have been chewed up repeatedly, and the overall sentiment in the semiconductor sector is retreating. $AMD 's situation feels a bit like a drunk being held up; it looks stable, but the knees are weak. The market keeps saying AI demand is unquenchable, but prices don't lie, and that 6-point red candle has shaken the narrative a bit.
My judgment is straightforward. The bulls are crowded, but no one is waving the white flag; this bottom is likely not in yet. If $AMD effectively breaks below the 500 mark, Old Dog will clear out the last bit of my position and flip to a light short, targeting around 480. If it can gain volume and reclaim 525, then that would signal the real washout is over, and I’ll re-enter, not greedy with half a position. What's contrary to consensus is that most analysts say this adjustment is technical and a chance to add to positions. But looking at the funding rate, I feel the bears haven't even started to exert their power; a real liquidation wave might be on the horizon.
Last year, the chip sector had a nearly identical play, dropping for three days without the funding rate turning negative, and on the fourth day, a spike sent the bulls into a chain reaction of liquidations. Old Dog didn’t trust the hold then and got taken out for over three points. This time I'm shaking in my boots; I’ll sit on the bench and watch closely before making a move.
Trading tags: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #AMD #AMDUSDT $AMD