The Altcoin Season of 2025 is more surprising than instant noodles
Just as I threw the noodle cake into the pot, people in the circle were shouting for a 100 times launch. The altcoin I was watching went from a 5% increase to a drop into the red in the blink of an eye. Looking at the depth chart, it was as thin as a piece of paper, with 50,000 U sell orders coming down.
The price directly retraced to the low of 2021. Don't blame the liquidity for running away; the money hasn't actually left, it's just gotten smarter. Friends around me who play with coins have already moved their funds to the BTC and SOL investment pools, securing a steady 8% annualized return.
Who still wants to take risks with altcoins? Even if there’s occasional liquidity, we first check the on-chain data. As soon as the team unlocks the tokens, they immediately turn around and leave. Nobody wants to be the bag holder.
Why can't altcoins rise? I understood last month after stepping into the trap. One reason is that there is no innovation, just rehashing old ideas. Web3 ZK AI + changing terms to shout. Opening the project’s on-chain page, aside from the official cross-chain bots moving, there are hardly any real transactions. To put it bluntly, it relies on concepts to raise money. The second reason is that the valuation has long been overextended.
In 2021, VCs discounted the expectations for the next ten years. Retail investors were left to pick up the pieces as soon as they came online. For example, during the flash crash in October,
a token that claimed to disrupt Amazon dropped 88% in three days, while a small project that actually issued on-chain invoices and bought back with real cash only dropped 8%. The market finally recognized that cash flow is worth more than PPT animations.
Retail investors wanting to survive in altcoins must change their mindset. Don’t treat it like a lottery; look at it as a project instead. Wait.
When BTC is in sideways oscillation, funds will look for small opportunities. At this time, check the trading volume; if it expands by 20% for three consecutive days, then enter. Don’t hold positions for more than five working days. Treating short-term trades as long-term holdings is a path to self-destruction.
Open Dune to see the daily revenue of protocols. Compare the fully diluted valuation (FDV). Only those with revenue multiplied by 30 being less than FDV should be added to the watchlist; the rest are blacklisted. Today's altcoins
are no longer a time of universal celebration, but rather a battlefield of niche selection. In the next round of liquidity easing, the order must not be wrong: first look at on-chain data, then calculate valuations, and finally check the popularity. One wrong step could lead to total losses.
On the path of compound interest, one person walks fast, but a group walks far. If you are also looking for a steadier rhythm, feel free to connect: @阿二说币
