The crazier the gold rises, the more uneasy I feel. Recently, I flipped through the historical trends of gold and found a rather heartbreaking pattern: in almost every round of gold bull market, it is almost unavoidable to encounter a global financial crisis. This is something everyone really needs to be reminded of.

Take the bull market from 1971 to 1980, for instance; the 1974 global financial crisis happened to fall right in the middle. The gold boom that started in 2001 is even more obvious, with the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis crashing right in, essentially confirming the pattern of 'bull market accompanied by crisis'.

What I am most uncertain about now is the direction of the US dollar. I'm afraid it will replicate the collapse-style devaluation of 1971—this risk is not impossible, and if it truly happens, I can't even imagine how crazily gold could rise. Even if it doesn’t reach a collapsing level, if Trump really returns to power, the US dollar is highly likely to continue its long-term weakness. Right now, gold is rising, which has actually preemptively digested a lot of the expectations of US dollar devaluation; when the dollar truly begins to plummet, gold might take the path of 'buying expectations, selling facts': once expectations are traded out, the reality settling in could lead to a pullback.

However, it must be made clear that there might be pitfalls in the short term for gold: if a financial crisis suddenly erupts, initially everyone will sell assets for cash, and gold might very well drop first. But looking at the previous two bull markets, one can tell that after the crisis, gold would still surge significantly before reaching its peak.

So do not blindly chase high gold prices right now; at the very least, one must understand the current price of gold in the context of the overall trend. Moreover, if a crisis truly erupts, global assets will drop, and there are plenty of cheap chips in stocks and commodities, so there’s no need to stubbornly cling to gold.

Ultimately, 'crisis' is half 'danger' and half 'opportunity'; what we should really do now is to make more money and accumulate more capital in reality. Otherwise, when the opportunity really comes, if you have no resources in hand, you can only watch others take advantage—that would be truly painful.

I can't guarantee that this opportunity will definitely come, but if it does, I will definitely remind everyone. The only thing that can be certain is: the crazier gold rises now, the closer the risk of a global financial crisis becomes. Based on this rising trend, I feel that in the next year, something significant might very well happen.