$ZEC
AI Analysis: $ZEC/USDT
Entry Price: 368–378
Target Price:
- TP1: 404
- TP2: 440
Stop Loss Price: Below 354
Reasons for Buying:
1. Pattern Confirmation:
- Daily level has formed a "double bottom" reversal structure (Neckline at 404), bottom depth 50 (354-404)
- Measured increase = bottom depth × 1.618 = 81 → Target Price 2 = 354 + 81 = 435 (actual rounded to 440)
2. Trend Structure:
- Weekly level breaks the 2024 downward trend line (440→404 connection), price above MA(50) 372
- RSI(14)=68 (strong area), MACD red bars expanding shows bullish momentum strengthening
3. Market Sentiment:
- The 364-368 area shows "breakout pullback - low volume stabilization" in volume-price relationship
- Closing price has stabilized above 368 for 3 consecutive days (previous low support + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level)
4. Indicator Verification:
- OBV indicator hits new highs for 2024, indicating capital inflow
- Funding rate +0.285% (positive for 7 consecutive days), futures open interest surpasses 1.5 billion USD
- On-chain data: Exchange net flow -220,000 coins, whale holdings increased by 38%
Key Observations:
1. Support Overlap: 354 stop loss corresponds to the October 2024 low and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level
2. Moving Average System: MA(200) 360 overlaps with the lower bound of the entry range, forming strong support
3. Volatility Expansion: Bollinger Band width expanded to 8.2% (highest in nearly 30 days), breakout direction may bring 25%+ single-day volatility
Trading Logic:
- Gradual Position Building: 368 (Fibonacci support) first position, 378 (MA50) add-on, average price controlled at 373
- Breakout Confirmation: Focus on follow-up opportunities after the price stabilizes at 404, volume during breakout needs to increase to 2 times the 5-day average volume
- Target Progression:
- 404 (Neckline): Take 30% profit
- 440 (Annual Line Resistance): Reduce position by 50%
- Risk Control: After breakout, move stop loss up to 378 to protect unrealized profits
Risk Warning:
- If the price drops below 354, be wary of double top failure risk
- The 440 area has dual resistance from the annual line + Fibonacci 161.8% extension, observe volume-price relationship
This content is for reference only and should not be considered investment advice.
