At the macro level, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 89.2%, while the likelihood of maintaining the status quo is only 10.8%. Looking ahead to January next year, the market estimates the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut to be 66.6%, while the probability of a further 50 basis point cut rises to 25.7%, indicating that easing expectations are strengthening again.
Against the backdrop of continuously adjusting macro expectations, crypto assets continue to attract institutional attention. The latest data from 8market shows that Bitcoin's market capitalization has risen to $1.829 trillion, successfully surpassing Broadcom and ranking as the 8th largest asset globally, reflecting its increasing significance as a global asset.
Glassnode and Fasanara Digital's (Q4 Digital Asset Report) pointed out that in the fourth quarter, the new funding scale for Bitcoin reached 732 billion USD, and the one-year realized volatility was nearly halved compared to before, with the market overall showing a more stable trading structure. In the past 90 days, the on-chain settlement amount for Bitcoin was about 6.9 trillion USD, which is comparable to or even higher than payment giants like Visa and Mastercard. As funds gradually enter through ETFs and brokers, cryptocurrency trading activities are further migrating off-chain, but Bitcoin and stablecoins still dominate the on-chain settlement ecosystem.
Furthermore, the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) is developing rapidly, with the total scale expanding from 7 billion USD last year to 24 billion USD, and the pace of institutional adoption has significantly accelerated. In particular, tokenized funds are seen as one of the fastest-growing segments by 2025, providing asset management institutions with new product distribution methods while broadening investor participation channels.
In the crypto enterprise sector, Strategy CEO Phong Le stated that the company's newly established 1.4 billion USD reserve will be used for future dividend and interest payments to avoid selling its 59 billion USD Bitcoin holdings during market volatility phases. According to estimates, this reserve can cover about 21 months of dividend needs, providing shareholders with a more stable outlook.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that the current crypto market is experiencing a cross-market sell-off of high-risk assets, with overvalued tech stocks, shell companies, and meme assets generally under pressure. BNB Plus CIO Patrick Horsman believes Bitcoin may revisit the 60,000 USD area, emphasizing that market sentiment has not yet fully stabilized. Nevertheless, this round of decline did not see systemic events similar to Mt. Gox or FTX, leading to complex emotions in the market between panic and explanation.
Additionally, Alliance DAO co-founder QwQiao discussed the long-term security budget and quantum resistance risks faced by Bitcoin, while noting that some L1 tokens may have the potential to become non-sovereign stores of value, serving as hedging tools in specific situations.
On-chain data shows that yesterday's Bitcoin turnover rate decreased, and investors remain relatively cautious about this round of rebound, with the market mainly driven by short-term funds.
URPD data shows that 2.536 million Bitcoins are accumulated in the range of 104,500-112,000 USD; 1.197 million Bitcoins are accumulated in the range of 91,000-96,000 USD.
Overall, Bitcoin has shown signs of a short-term rebound after being oversold, and short-term bullish sentiment may continue. If the market progresses smoothly in the next two months, Bitcoin is expected to challenge the 103,000 USD area. However, if the price falls below 80,600 USD again, panic sentiment may spread quickly and could become a key signal before the onset of a bear market. Even if entering a bear market cycle, as the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks continues to strengthen, the future trend is expected to differ from previous deep bears, with market recovery potentially being faster.#比特币走势分析
