This current rebound is likely a 'don't run, fellow villagers' act! Don't be fooled by the rise from 2700 to 2800; this strength hasn't even made up half of yesterday's drop. Yesterday afternoon at 2820, I warned against bottom fishing, and by the evening it fell directly to 2700, confirming my judgment. So the question arises — after the rebound, will it continue to surge, or will we see another big bearish candle? Today's market answer may leave most people in despair.

Why am I bearish? The fundamental reason is: market sentiment and capital movements are completely diverging. On the news front, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is as high as 87.6%, which theoretically should lead to a surge, right? But the cryptocurrency market doesn't buy it; the trading volume during the rebound has obviously shrunk, indicating that large funds are too afraid to participate. It's like shouting 'good news is coming,' but no one is rushing in with real money — a typical trap to lure buyers. Especially with two plummets last night, the market panic hasn't been fully released; now it's just a technical bounce after a significant drop. Remember the old saying by Lao Luo: in a downtrend, all good news is a signal to escape!

Today's logic: Volume-price divergence determines that the rebound will not go far.

Today's core logic can be summed up in four words: volume-price divergence. The price rebounds while the trading volume shrinks, indicating that retail investors are chasing, while the main players are watching or even quietly unloading. The drop of ETH from 2820 to 2700 was a volume increase, while the rebound from 2700 to 2800 was a volume decrease, which is a very dangerous structure. Moreover, at the weekly level, ETH is still in a downtrend channel; this rebound is merely to facilitate a better decline. Therefore, today I see a potential scenario of 'first up, then down; the closer the rebound approaches 2850-2900, the more likely it is to be an excellent shorting opportunity.

Short-term strategy: Three key positions determine life and death.

Resistance level: 2980 (strong resistance), if the price does not rebound past this point, the trend remains bearish.

Dividing line: 2780 (lifeline for bulls and bears) keep a close watch! If it breaks below 2780 again and stabilizes at the 15-minute level, the rebound will end, and the bears will regain strength.

Support level: 2700 (yesterday's low), if broken, the next target is 2600.

Specific operational advice:

Shorting strategy: Gradually build short positions in the range of 2820-2850, with a stop-loss above 2880, targeting 2780 and holding to 2700 if it breaks.

Be cautious when going long: Unless there is a volume breakout above 2880 and it stabilizes, do not go long. If you want to play the rebound, you can only take small positions around 2780; if it drops below 2770, you must stop-loss.

Survival tip: Before the trend has clearly reversed, only feast on the body of the fish, not the tail. It is better to miss a rebound than to go in the wrong direction.

If you are unsure about the specific entry position, you can follow Lao Luo for a detailed analysis based on the situation.


Lao Luo's viewpoint:

Still the old saying: Making money in a bull market relies on courage, while making money in a bear market relies on patience. Don't be misled by short-term fluctuations; the ETH weekly adjustment has not ended, and the real bottom will inevitably be accompanied by panic selling with increased volume. What you need to do now is to hold back, save your bullets, and wait for the market to give a clear signal. Remember, surviving in the crypto space is more important than getting rich quickly!

If you always feel one step behind the market, where every buy results in a drop and every sell leads to a rise, let me tell you, you are not lacking analysis; you are lacking a professional guide who can remind you in real-time when 'opportunities arise' and 'it's time to run'! Want to know how I, Lao Luo, helped my brothers in the village avoid pitfalls and make precise ambushes? Follow Lao Luo, who will publish the specific entry times and real-time news every day in the village!#加密市场回调 $ETH