BTC Outlook
Summary
Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility again, dropping more than 3% in the last 24 hours. This decline was triggered by macro factors and market structure adjustments.
1. Moving Macro Factors
The end of the QT program by The Fed and the potential effects of unwinding the Yen Carry Trade are the main triggers for BTC price movements.
2. High Leverage Explosion
The high number of leveraged positions triggered a series of liquidations, while outflows from institutional ETFs added selling pressure.
3. Rebound Signals
BTC has entered an oversold condition, and the MACD has started to turn positive, signaling potential short-term recovery.
Positive Side
1. Fed Policy Direction
The Federal Reserve officially ends quantitative tightening on December 1, 2025, which could help increase liquidity for risk assets like Bitcoin.
2. Fundamentals Remain Strong
Bitcoin's treasury model is described as “hurt but not broken,” indicating that BTC's fundamentals are still solid and institutional support continues to grow as this asset matures.
3. Technical Rebound Opportunities
The RSI on several timeframes (6, 12, 24) has dropped to very oversold levels between 5.5–31.8, while the MACD histogram has started to strengthen, opening opportunities for a short rally from the current price position.
Main Risks
1. Global Macro Pressure
The potential unwind of the Japanese Yen Carry Trade due to projected interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan tightens global liquidity and triggers massive sell-offs in risk assets.
2. Vulnerability of the Leverage Market
Over $640 million in long leveraged positions were liquidated following a sharp decline, indicating that the market is very sensitive to sudden corrections.
3. Institutional Outflows
The Bitcoin spot ETF in the US recorded a net outflow of $3.48 billion during November, the largest decline since February, indicating weakening institutional buying demand and continued selling pressure.
Community Sentiment
The majority of the community shows a bearish outlook, linking the decline and wave of liquidations to the potential unwinding of the Japanese Yen Carry Trade.
