#鲍威尔发言

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December 2025 has sharply declined, with most financial data providers and CME FedWatch now estimating only a 22%–43% chance. Most analysts expect the Fed to keep the current rate at 3.75%–4.00%.​

Key factors behind this shift:

September's jobs report showed 119,000 additions and a higher unemployment rate (4.4%), indicating a resilient but cautious labor market. Inflation remains elevated at around 3%, raising pressure for the Fed to control prices rather than lower rates.​

The Federal Reserve is internally divided. Some officials want to pause further easing, while others focus on labor softness. October jobs data was delayed by the government shutdown, adding uncertainty and making timely decisions difficult.​

Powell’s term and the upcoming U.S. election also add caution, as political uncertainty tends to favor less dramatic moves for now.​

In summary, a December rate cut is unlikely, with most experts predicting the Fed will delay decisions until it has more data, possibly in early 2026.​$BTC $ETH