BTC Weekly Level Trend Emerges!
Is it a trap for the bulls or a prelude to a bull run?
In April, the net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETF reached nearly $3 billion, with an additional $1.6 billion added from May to now. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that the capital flow is mainly directional bets, with significant characteristics of non-arbitrage trading.
On the policy front, New Hampshire has become the first state in the U.S. to pass a Bitcoin strategic reserve bill, with 19 states following suit in legislation. Arizona is pushing forward bills related to cryptocurrency custody and strategic reserves; the federal Senate vetoed the "GENIUS Act" (stablecoin regulation bill), maintaining market risk appetite stability.
In terms of the macro economy, adjustments to Trump's tariff policies have boosted the stock market and the dollar, reducing recession expectations and suppressing market volatility. Bitcoin benefits from a surge in institutional demand, an improved policy environment, and a warming macro landscape, leading to increased bullish sentiment among investors.
Despite the favorable data and policies, Bitcoin's current breakthrough of the $100,000 threshold still requires more off-market funds for support, rather than being purely driven by sentiment. Although the technical pattern shows a breakout signal, there is suspicion of a bull trap, needing a retest to confirm the validity of support.
Currently, the sequence of high points after breaking $100,000 is 105800-104950-104440, showing a downward trend, and the bottom lift (by $2000-$3000) is insufficient to complete a washout. The market may need a correction at the $10,000 level to clear floating capital, with a demand for a retest in the $95000-$97000 range; otherwise, bulls will find it difficult to directly challenge $105000 and advance towards the historical high of $110000.
Currently, extreme bullish sentiment is focused on the expectation of a rate cut in July, and caution is needed against the "anti-human" trading logic - when the market uniformly expects a rate cut to initiate an upward trend, the market may move in the opposite direction.
Previously, the market thought that without a rate cut, it would be hard to rise, yet BTC rebounded from $75,000 in a V-shape to $105,000; now the market is convinced that a rate cut will drive new highs, and investors need to guard against the risk of a pullback, avoiding blind bottom-fishing.