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If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, will the market crash?
Many people think that whether Japan raises interest rates doesn't matter, as the extent is not large anyway. But the real danger has never been about 'how much' but rather - Japan has finally started to move.
For more than twenty years, Japan has been the source of the lowest cost funds globally. A large amount of capital borrows in yen to invest in US stocks, cryptocurrencies, and various high-risk assets.
In short: many trends rely on Japan's low interest rates. Once interest rates rise, who will be the first to face problems? Not the Japanese economy, but leveraged funds. As soon as there is an expectation of yen appreciation, carry trade funds have to close positions by selling stocks, selling currencies, and reducing risks. This is not an emotional collapse; it is forced selling.
Why might it not just be a small correction? Because the current market position is not low, and leverage is not small either. When everyone assumes that 'money is always cheap', a change in rules usually results in a harsh adjustment.
Historically, many significant drops are not due to high interest rates, but because capital suddenly realizes it has taken the wrong direction.
What does this mean for the cryptocurrency market? In short: volatility will be amplified. The higher the leverage, the faster the demise; altcoins will fall first, mainstream coins will follow. After some time, there will be a sudden acceleration in the drop. It's not that the projects are failing; it's that money is exiting the market.
An interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan may not immediately trigger a global crash, but it is likely one of the switches for risk release.
Don’t bet on the market's mercy; managing your positions in advance is far more important than correctly judging the direction.

In December 11, 2025, the U.S. SEC officially approved a pilot project for tokenization of securities operated by financial infrastructure giant DTCC. The project is planned to launch in the second half of 2026 and will last for three years, tokenizing traditional assets such as Russell 1000 constituents, U.S. Treasury bonds, and mainstream ETFs in a controlled blockchain environment. This marks a key step toward the integration of blockchain into the core financial markets of the U.S., aimed at exploring efficiency enhancements such as round-the-clock trading and instant settlement, while maintaining existing legal rights and regulatory compliance.

#The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, get to bed early when you have time, and earn more money when you can.

The easing tone of monetary policy for next year has already been set at the conference held last week: it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and "flexibly and efficiently utilize various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions".
This means that next year we can expect at least one reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reduction. If necessary, the number of times may increase.
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Now the policy space is much larger than in the past two years, an important reason being that the United States has entered a rate-cutting cycle.
Since the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve has cut rates three times in September, October, and December, each by 25 basis points, for a total reduction of 75 basis points. During this period, China did not follow up with interest rate cuts.
This "one static and one dynamic" situation has alleviated the inversion of interest rates between China and the United States, providing more independent space for our monetary policy operations. Whether it's LPR adjustments or the recently much-discussed mortgage interest rate policy, there are realistic conditions for implementation.
It can be anticipated that a further reduction in mortgage rates in 2026 is a high-probability event. For friends who are currently repaying loans or planning to buy a house, this is undoubtedly a positive signal worth paying attention to.

On December 16, 2025, the gold market showed a high-level correction trend, with both international and domestic spot and futures varieties falling; only the prices at offline gold stores remained stable at a high level. Under the intertwining of bullish and bearish factors, it is highly likely to maintain high-level fluctuations in the short term. Here is a detailed analysis:
1. Price performance: Internationally, the London gold spot price is reported at $4285.1 per ounce, down $18.83, a decrease of 0.44%. In the domestic market, gold T+D is quoted at 966.3 yuan per gram, a decrease of 0.90%; the main Shanghai gold contract is quoted at 971.42 yuan per gram, a decrease of 0.60%. Prices at offline gold stores remain firm, with Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang both at 1353 yuan per gram, and Lao Feng Xiang and Chow Sang Sang both at 1349 yuan per gram, overall stabilizing around 1350 yuan per gram.
2. Core influencing factors: On the bullish side, global central banks have increased their gold holdings for 13 consecutive months, with net gold purchases in 2025 expected to exceed 1200 tons, providing long-term support for gold prices; market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2026 remain, indirectly lowering U.S. Treasury yields and reducing the cost of holding gold. On the bearish side, signs of easing in the Russia-Ukraine situation have led to a decrease in risk premiums, causing some funds to exit; after reaching a high, London gold's $4300 has become a profit-taking line, with a large number of profit-taking sales triggering short-term corrections, and there are clear internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, suppressing bullish momentum.
3. Technical situation: The daily upward trend of London gold has not been broken, but the KDJ indicator shows signs of a death cross, and the MACD red histogram is shrinking, indicating weakened short-term upward momentum; in the 4-hour level, there is heavy selling pressure in the $4335 - $4345 range, and the RSI indicator is overbought, indicating a risk of correction. Domestic gold T+D remains firmly supported around 960 yuan, and the main Shanghai gold contract fluctuates around 975 yuan. Although it has fallen during the day, it has not broken through key support, overall following international gold to maintain high-level fluctuations.
Gold can be bought low in the range of 4285-4270, targeting 4300-4310.

$ETH liquidation is impossible, only cutting losses. Congratulations to you for seeing my first long position being cut, with a maximum floating profit of thirty thousand at its peak, and now a loss of ten thousand when exiting.
What I need to tell you is that if you do not have enough margin or a stable mindset, you must stay away from long positions; doing intraday swings is quite good.

It's been quiet for too long.
The market won't stay dormant forever.
The next awakening
This could be the key factor that catches everyone off guard.

Are you always on the road to break even? In the current market, both long and short positions can be profitable; the key lies in choosing the right entry point and finding the correct trading direction.

This week's analysis of various viewpoints on Bitcoin and Ethereum's bullish and bearish trends:
1. Bullish
1. After Trump met with Waller, Waller, who supports interest rate cuts, was recognized by Trump,
thus Waller has risen to the top of the list of candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman.
2. China has shut down 400,000 mining machines, mainly due to the impact of China's crackdown on virtual currency trading.
Generally speaking, every time China distances itself from Bitcoin, it tends to be bullish for Bitcoin shortly after.
3. CZ: Does not hold fiat currency, almost no cash.
4. A licensed exchange in Hong Kong is preparing to raise $200 million, which will be an important step for compliance in Hong Kong's virtual currency sector.
5. Last week, there was a net inflow of $200 million into Ethereum spot ETFs.
6. The chairman of MicroStrategy hinted at buying more BTC.
7. Yi Li Hua: Believes now is the best time to buy ETH.
2. Bearish
1. The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates has greatly increased, which may likely lead to a decline in Bitcoin.
2. Last week, the total network hash rate of Bitcoin fell by 17%.
3. Today's cryptocurrency fear index is 17, indicating extreme fear.
4. Gold advocate Peter Schiff expressed the view: Bitcoin is a scam.
5. South Korean regulators failed to submit a stablecoin regulatory bill.
6. Bitcoin OG holders continue to sell off Bitcoin.

After the breakout with increased volume, the 'secondary volume confirmation' trend-following strategy
Logic:
A true trend breakout is often not just a single volume surge, but a breakout + pullback + another surge.
Approach:
First volume breakout of a key level
Pullback does not break, and trading volume significantly decreases
Increase position or enter when there is another upward volume surge
Stop loss: pullback low point
Advantage: filters out 70% of false breakouts.

Today's Observation: December 15
A new week begins! BTC stabilizes at $92,000, with a target directly aimed at $95,000!
BTC: Perfect weekly close, bulls continue to exert strength
Core Changes: With the opening of the Asian market, market liquidity quickly recovered. BTC successfully completed a weekly close above the $91,000 mark, which is an extremely strong bullish signal, laying the optimistic foundation for this week.
Today's Trend: BTC continues the strong consolidation from the weekend, currently stabilizing in the $92,500 - $93,500 range, with bulls testing new breakout points.
Breakout Target: The main resistance level above is at $94,000. Once successfully broken and stabilized, according to technical calculations, the next target will be to challenge $95,500 and further look towards the $100,000 mark.
Important Support: $92,000 has become the new strong short-term support level.
ETH and Altcoins: Accelerating Mode Activated
ETH Performance: Ethereum (ETH) is performing positively, having started to attempt an upward breakout from the weekend's consolidation range, currently stabilizing near $3,300. If BTC breaks through $94,000, ETH is very likely to also break through $3,400.
Altcoin Opportunities: As market confidence increases significantly, funds are beginning to accelerate into the altcoin market. This may be the last window for investors who missed the low-buy opportunity last week to chase the gains.
Continuous Attention: L2, AI, and certain DeFi blue-chip sectors are expected to continue to be the focus of capital rotation.
Weekly Strategy: Firmly bullish, stay alert for corrections
With the new week starting, overall market sentiment is very optimistic, and strategies should primarily focus on trend-following trading.
Spot Strategy: Continue to hold positions and enjoy the profit run. Spot investors should reduce trading frequency to avoid selling due to minor corrections.
Contract Strategy: Focused on long positions. Attention can be given to BTC's pullback opportunities in the $92,000 - $92,500 area for entry. But remember, any rise is not linear, so set stop-losses to deal with inevitable short-term corrections.

BTC Insights
The price of Bitcoin has dropped from $90290 to $89257 in the past 24 hours, a decrease of 1.14%, indicating a bearish trend in the short term.
1. Institutional Buying: Major banks are recommending Bitcoin, enhancing its credibility.
2. Macroeconomic Support: Actions by the Federal Reserve and global liquidity suggest a potential bullish trend in 2026.
3. Interest Rate Threat: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike will bring significant downside risks.
Highlights
1. Institutional Adoption: Itaú Unibanco, the largest private bank in Latin America, recommends clients allocate up to 3% of their portfolios to Bitcoin, indicating growing institutional interest and increasing potential capital inflow.
2. Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Positive macroeconomic factors, including adjustments to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, potential interest rate cuts, and increases in global M2 supply, could drive a significant bull market in the cryptocurrency sector in early 2026.
3. Whale Accumulation: Despite the current calm market, large holders are increasing their Bitcoin positions to near six-month highs, while volume indicators show divergence, indicating strong buying pressure and reduced selling pressure.
Risks
1. Potential Rate Hike Impact: The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates is relatively high, and historical correlations with previous adjustments may lead to a significant drop in Bitcoin prices by 20% to 30%.
2. Bearish Technicals: The daily chart shows a descending channel, and the fifth wave of decline is expected to reach around $70,000, with potential further drops to $40,000 to $45,000 after a mid-2026 rebound.
3. Capital Outflow and Weakening Momentum: In the past 24 hours, there has been a net outflow of $151 million in Bitcoin, while technical indicators show price declines (from $90290 to $89257) and the MACD histogram displaying negative values, indicating that capital is leaving Bitcoin and bullish momentum is weakening.
Community Sentiment
1. Community Divide: The Bitcoin community is divided on its recent outlook, with some believing that the price will drop significantly due to macroeconomic factors such as the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, while others think the current consolidation indicates an impending bullish breakout.

The crypto world is truly a place that makes people both love and hate it. Have you ever wondered why some people can multiply tens of thousands by hundreds, while others watch their accounts shrink day by day?

Oh no, keep buying buying

On December 14, 2025, Ethereum showed signs of stabilization and recovery during the afternoon. The short-term momentum on the technical side is positive, but overall it is still under key resistance. The specific market analysis is as follows:
1. Price and key levels: Ethereum's price stabilized above $3200 in the afternoon, showing a fluctuating upward trend on the 4-hour chart. The current key resistance level is the 50-day exponential moving average corresponding to $3310. After breaking through this level, the next target can be seen at $3592. The intraday support level is in the range of $3075 - $3090, with around $3128 providing some support for the short-term trend.
2. Technical indicator signals: The RSI indicator on the daily chart is in the bullish zone at 54, and the MACD has issued a bullish crossover signal, indicating that short-term bullish momentum is leaning towards positivity. However, the price is still below the main EMA, and the overall trend has not completely reversed the bearish pattern. Additionally, the futures market previously saw open interest exceed $40 billion, indicating strong confidence in the leveraged market, which also provides some support for the price.
3. Overall market situation: The cryptocurrency market is currently in a narrow range of fluctuations, with Ethereum's hourly trading volume showing no significant increase, and market sentiment remains cautious. Previously, the macro-level interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have been digested, and the future trend will primarily depend on whether it can stabilize at the $3310 resistance level. If it can hold, it may reverse the short-term downtrend; otherwise, it may test the support range below.

On December 14, 2025, Bitcoin showed a narrow fluctuation during the afternoon, positioned at a key directional choice node, with a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Detailed analysis is as follows:
1. Price and Key Levels: The afternoon price fluctuated in the range of $90,000 to $92,000, returning to the psychological level of $90,000. The key resistance zone above is $94,150 to $94,236, and a breakout could lead to $96,000 and $100,000; the initial support below is at $90,000, and if it breaks, it may test the $85,900 to $86,300 area. Losing $89,000 could damage the rebound structure.
2. Technical Indicator Signals: The daily MACD shows a bullish signal, but the RSI has not effectively broken through the midpoint of 50, indicating weakening upward momentum; the 4-hour chart formed a triangle consolidation at the end, constrained by a downward trend line, with expectations of a 'double top' pattern emerging. There is a clear divergence in short-term bullish and bearish signals, and the trend remains unclear.
3. Overall Market Situation: The Fed's interest rate cut benefits have been digested in advance, coupled with weak earnings reports from U.S. tech stocks dragging the market down, leading to decreased liquidity, with traders generally remaining cautious. On-chain data shows that institutional 'whales' continue to accumulate, retail positions remain stable, but altcoins are generally correcting, with funds flowing back to Bitcoin for hedging. The core focus of future trends is on the breakthrough of the $94,200 resistance and the stability of the $90,000 support.

1. **Bitcoin Price Volatility Increases**: Due to concerns over AI tech stocks (disappointing Broadcom earnings) and the market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, Bitcoin briefly fell below $90,000 and is currently oscillating around $92,000. The 30-day implied volatility has dropped to its lowest since November, with traders expecting sideways movement until the end of the year. Altcoins are performing worse and continue to lag behind Bitcoin.
2. **Continued Impact of Federal Reserve Policy**: After the Federal Reserve's third interest rate cut this week, the market is digesting signals of a "pause in further easing." Some Fed officials expect more rate cuts in 2026, but short-term risk assets (such as cryptocurrencies) are under pressure. The dollar is weakening, but the crypto market has yet to rebound strongly.
3. **Major Product Developments at Coinbase**: Coinbase is set to launch a prediction market powered by Kalshi and plans to announce new features such as tokenized U.S. stocks at an event on December 17. This will expand its positioning as an "all-in-one exchange," integrating traditional assets with crypto.
4. **Ethereum Network Upgrade Benefits**: After the Fusaka upgrade, Ethereum Gas fees have dropped to their lowest since 2017, significantly reducing transaction costs, enhancing network efficiency, and increasing the attractiveness of DeFi.
5. **Divergent Institutional Views**: JPMorgan analysts have lowered their 2025 Bitcoin price target but deny entering a "crypto winter." Institutions like Standard Chartered have also adjusted their expectations to around $100,000. Overall market sentiment remains cautious, with the fear and greed index still low.
6. **Other Hot Topics**:
- Five crypto companies, including Ripple, Circle, and BitGo, are close to obtaining trust bank licenses.
- Multiple token unlocks this week, with a total value exceeding $2.37 billion, which may increase selling pressure.
- The prediction market and SportsFi (such as the award-winning SIXR cricket project) sectors are active.

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On December 13, 2025, Bitcoin showed a high-level consolidation during the afternoon, with prices fluctuating around $92,000, remaining trapped within the range of $88,000 - $94,000, without forming an effective breakthrough. The specific market analysis is as follows:
1. Price and trading data: During the afternoon, Bitcoin's 24-hour decline exceeded 2%, with prices dropping from $94,000 to $89,237, a maximum amplitude exceeding 4.8%. The total liquidation amount across the network in 24 hours exceeded $532 million, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $170 million in liquidations, and long positions making up over 75%. Meanwhile, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is approximately $3.15 trillion, with a total trading volume of $125.41 billion in 24 hours, and the market sentiment index at 28, indicating a state of 'fear'.
2. Key support and resistance: The immediate resistance level above is around $94,000 - $94,200, coinciding with recent highs and the upper Bollinger Band; the primary support below focuses on the psychological level of $90,000 - $91,000, with stronger support near $87,500, while the mid-line support is at the $85,500 level.
3. Technical indicator conditions: The daily MACD shows a volume increase, but the DIF and DEA are slowing down as they approach the zero line, indicating a clear short-term bearish trend, with the Bollinger Band in a contraction state; on the 4-hour chart, the EMA trend indicator is contracting, the MACD is decreasing in volume with DIF and DEA forming a death cross, but the lower Bollinger Band at $89,300 provides effective support. Additionally, the daily RSI is around 58, within a healthy bullish range, not yet overbought, suggesting that the upward trend may have continuation space.
4. Market and macro impacts: After the Federal Reserve's rate cut, the market has adjusted in anticipation of the positive news, while its initiated 'Reserve Management Purchase Program' may provide support for the cryptocurrency market. On-chain data shows that large Bitcoin holders resumed accumulation mode at the end of November.