BTC Insights

The price of Bitcoin has dropped from $90290 to $89257 in the past 24 hours, a decrease of 1.14%, indicating a bearish trend in the short term.

1. Institutional Buying: Major banks are recommending Bitcoin, enhancing its credibility.

2. Macroeconomic Support: Actions by the Federal Reserve and global liquidity suggest a potential bullish trend in 2026.

3. Interest Rate Threat: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike will bring significant downside risks.

Highlights

1. Institutional Adoption: Itaú Unibanco, the largest private bank in Latin America, recommends clients allocate up to 3% of their portfolios to Bitcoin, indicating growing institutional interest and increasing potential capital inflow.

2. Macroeconomic Tailwinds: Positive macroeconomic factors, including adjustments to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, potential interest rate cuts, and increases in global M2 supply, could drive a significant bull market in the cryptocurrency sector in early 2026.

3. Whale Accumulation: Despite the current calm market, large holders are increasing their Bitcoin positions to near six-month highs, while volume indicators show divergence, indicating strong buying pressure and reduced selling pressure.

Risks

1. Potential Rate Hike Impact: The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates is relatively high, and historical correlations with previous adjustments may lead to a significant drop in Bitcoin prices by 20% to 30%.

2. Bearish Technicals: The daily chart shows a descending channel, and the fifth wave of decline is expected to reach around $70,000, with potential further drops to $40,000 to $45,000 after a mid-2026 rebound.

3. Capital Outflow and Weakening Momentum: In the past 24 hours, there has been a net outflow of $151 million in Bitcoin, while technical indicators show price declines (from $90290 to $89257) and the MACD histogram displaying negative values, indicating that capital is leaving Bitcoin and bullish momentum is weakening.

Community Sentiment

1. Community Divide: The Bitcoin community is divided on its recent outlook, with some believing that the price will drop significantly due to macroeconomic factors such as the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, while others think the current consolidation indicates an impending bullish breakout.