很大很大的橙子

Fragility is being hurt by volatility, resilience is not being hurt by volatility, and antifragility is gaining from volatility.
I recently re-read Taleb's antifragility. If you put "hoarding coins" in what the book says, it is completely consistent. "Contracts" are fragile and cannot withstand volatility, while "hoarding coins" is antifragile, allowing you to pick up lower chips every time during large fluctuations.
Interestingly, KOLs are also antifragile. The more people who criticize him, the more popular he becomes.
The antifragility of the system depends on the fragility of individuals. In this wave of big drops, the most people bet on ETH's rise because of ETFs. At the same time, this wave of people is also the most fragile (double leverage is liquidated), which also led to the most severe drop in ETH in this wave.
The highest level of anti-fragility is to have anti-fragility. You can understand it as spot selection of coins and hoarding, contracts are to control positions, and the difficulty of copycat is hell-level. Most people who enter this circle only see cases of getting rich by playing memes, but not playing memes and inscriptions. The probability of loss is 80%+. The only people who make money are probably the project parties that issue coins, or the group leaders of CX groups. Similarly, the leeks who play memes are also the most vulnerable.
Many people know the legendary trader hedeng in the currency circle. His philosophy is to always stand on the opposite side of fragility, which also means anti-fragility (position management).
There is no theme, just casually share my recent experience.

After 1011, Binance "listened to advice" and directly fixed the pegged exchange rate of BNSOL / WBETH (the exchange rate linked to staking rewards).
This change essentially locks down the most core risk.
Many people are afraid to use these two coins as collateral due to the shadow of 1011— I think it is completely unnecessary; now is actually the safest time.

It is important to know that the risk-free arbitrage returns in the market have dropped to nearly invisible levels.
And the 2%–6% staking rewards of BNSOL / WBETH are already considered "both attractive and stable" among similar assets.
As long as you have a strategy that can run long-term, using these two coins as collateral and stacking an additional layer of returns is actually quite comfortable.

Looking at USDe, that is a completely different story.
USDe is not issued by Binance; Binance has no obligation to provide a safety net.
The compensation for USDe after 1011 is actually more of a product of corporate responsibility + public opinion pressure.
In the future, if USDe decouples again, my personal judgment is:
Binance is unlikely to intervene.
Because USDe has its own project party and its own market makers, Binance inherently should not provide a safety net for it; the decoupling is essentially not closely related to Binance. $ETH $SOL

It feels like S&P Global Ratings isn't thinking straight; USDT is actually the most robust stablecoin in reality.

What truly worries me is USDe.
With a scale of tens of billions, continuously offering "principal protection + 6%", it even reached 7% a while back, and when it first launched on Binance, the subsidy was raised to 12%.
At the same time, it needs to reserve significant liquidity for users to redeem at any time.
This year, those engaged in neutral quant strategies are well aware — neutral strategies have gradually approached U.S. Treasuries.
In this environment, how can a protocol maintain "principal protection and interest" at a scale of tens of billions? Where does this subsidy actually come from?
The premise for this model to keep running is to never encounter stress tests.

If one day sentiment shifts, the explosion could be even more exaggerated than the LUNA incident.

The Short Call for 2000 ETH sold on Binance options in August is unlikely to be exercised. Originally, these 2000 ETH were meant to be sold, but now it's uncertain how much longer we have to wait.

However, during the 10·11 incident, this options position was collateralized with WBETH, surprisingly managing to withstand the decoupling risk of WBETH. It must be said that Binance options do have some capability in risk control. #option #币安期权

Aster has needed adjustments for a long time, CZ said that if the price of the coin goes up, the position volume will surge, but yesterday it all fell back, and the position volume hasn't decreased, everyone is trapped.

I don't mean to blame CZ, rather I think there's nothing wrong with promoting my own project, just purely analyzing from a technical perspective. #aster

https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/square/audio/replay?id=29577659791297
This is a follow-up from the last live session on Binance Square Options, starting at 61 minutes and 25 seconds, where I raised the risk control issue regarding WBETH.
My view is: since Binance has allowed WBETH and BNSOL to be used as contract margins, there should be no need to refer to the price index of spot trading pairs; it can simply fix the exchange rate at 1:1.
The reason is very simple—these two assets are essentially internal assets of the Binance ecosystem, which Binance can mint and burn. If issues arise, they can be balanced out through the redemption period. Last night's 'crash-type' decline could have been completely avoided.

I definitely missed out on the BSC meme, this wave is really not my version, completely unable to grasp it.
The only operation yesterday was to hang a portion of BNB to exchange for BTC, but the order didn't get fully executed.
I still remember when SOL was launched by Trump, the community's sentiment was also at its peak of FOMO, those few days were almost the highest point of the exchange rate.
I still have a long-term positive outlook on BNB, but for the short term, I'm subjectively making a currency fluctuation. I might be wrong in my judgment, but even if I exchange for BTC and am wrong, it shouldn't be too far off, right?

Many people say Tom Lee is a madman, that his predictions have no bottom line, and that claiming Ethereum will reach tens of thousands of dollars is just nonsense. To those who say such things, I can only smile: those who don't believe will always get off the train "before tens of thousands of dollars."
I think Tom Lee has no issues at all. Making predictions is inherently about creating anxiety, making people restless, and forcing out FOMO. Comfort doesn't earn money; discomfort is the essence of a bull market. You think he is too aggressive in his predictions? If it were me, I would shout even louder.
Belief is not just something you say. Only by shouting it out yourself will you believe it more and more. This is how I believe: ETH at tens of thousands of dollars, BTC at a million dollars is not about "whether it can happen," but about "when it will happen."
Tom Lee is fine; the problem lies with the Chinese community. The Chinese community lacks a person who dares to shout and set a flag. Everyone is afraid of being laughed at, afraid of being slapped in the face, but no one is willing to admit: true wealth is built on faith.
In the next 10 to 20 years, there will be increases beyond your imagination; whether you join in or not is up to you.

This time in 2049, I really feel that KOLs have made money, regardless of the method, so many people say they earn hundreds of thousands in a year, and I believe it.

Looking back, although I haven't made money directly through KOLs, I've generated a lot of butterfly effects through the connections and resources of KOLs.

Everyone should build their personal IP in the future and strive to become an industry KOL. That's why big shots like Lei Jun and Zhou Hongyi are still working hard to create their personal IP.

ETH is still my first holding, BTC is the second holding, BNB is the third holding, and the fourth holding is Aster.
I indeed do not play with altcoins much.

I recently took a bit of Aster funding fee, the funding fee is too attractive, I didn't take enough, mainly because the margin is insufficient.
As far as I know, the arbitrage team is crazily buying spot to arbitrage funding fees on Binance or HL, and I have a bunch of spot in my hands, so I definitely need to arbitrage.
Aster is the first contract that drives the funding fee up to force quantitative teams to buy spot for arbitrage, relying on contracts to push spot prices up, it's something I've never seen before.
The only thing I can think of is consensus, retail investors and institutions are going long on the contract together, leading to a persistent large gap between perpetual and spot prices.

The screenshot shared by people in the group【Image 1】, I can confirm, more or less, it's real, and that's why I went to stake for four years and still rolled over the stake. Moreover, some people withdrew in the middle, and those who didn't withdraw later eat half of the returns of those who exited because of the penalty for withdrawal, which is half.

I had analyzed before, Usual's learning APX【Image 2】, Apx this project, there shouldn't be many people on Twitter who understand it better than me, having participated from the beginning until today.

Looking back, I won't tell you how great it is to lock up for four years 🤣

What I admire most about myself is that the day after I was hacked, I used my own money to buy Apx back, and the repurchased amount increased 20 times.

I don't have any wealth codes or insights, I mainly focus on holding, just doing the simplest things.

The Aster (APX) project has gone from being almost unnoticed four years ago to now being a sensation across the internet, with an FDV that has reached 13 billion USD. I should actually be considered one of the earliest and most steadfast promoters—since four years ago, I have been sharing with everyone intermittently (this is not an exaggeration; you can see it by looking back at historical records and my tweets from that time).
My logic has always been very simple:
Binance must have its own DEX, and Binance will definitely fully support its own DEX. It is based on this judgment that I have persisted from the beginning to the end.
These four years have not been easy. During this time, I also experienced ups and downs with Aster (APX), and even got hacked, but I chose to buy back immediately and firmly locked in for four years. Many people gave up halfway, but I gritted my teeth and endured.
BNB has created a legendary thousand-fold return in eight years, and I believe that good projects are worth waiting for.
Sometimes, the most profitable method is often the simplest method—hold on and endure.

I think by 2028 at the latest, the ETH/BTC exchange rate will break 0.1. Don't forget that MicroStrategy is in debt, while no Ethereum coin stock is in debt.

Sure enough, this old conman Jia Yueting couldn't help himself.

The fact that Binance is going to support USDE, many people have not yet realized how big the impact is.
I blindly guess the first step is to go live with trading, and the second step is to support margin trading contracts.
The latter step has a significant impact, as Binance has a large amount of existing capital, which will lead to a massive influx of funds into ENA, further affecting the entire cryptocurrency quantitative market.
However, this is not necessarily a bad thing; the overall market liquidity is essentially undergoing another QE, think about it carefully.

Here's a look at my layout over the past year:
US stocks: Robinhood, Tesla, Cang
Hong Kong stocks: Tencent, Xiaomi
Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin, Ethereum
However, most of it is in cryptocurrency; it's been like this for the past decade.