tinfed

Updating both as well: today, 3/11/2026, the market is caught between a weak SOL and a hawkish FED:

SOL today:

Price: $91.85 - $93.29, currently around $91.5 - $92.3, down ∼0.4% - 1.8%, 24h range $91.39 - $94.51
7 days: -8.5%, 30 days: -23%

Main negative news:
- Record ETF outflows: $63.4M in outflows over the last 5 sessions; last week’s $71.47M was the biggest week of outflows since ETFs launched; $143.7M flowed out in October
- After the $6.3B Binance hack: Binance saw net outflows of $3.64B after withdrawals reopened
- $15.28M in long SOL liquidations

Positive news providing support:
- RWA on Solana hit an ATH of $5.12B - $5.19B, up 17.65% in 30 days
- Q3 app revenue of $299M; record card spending of $141.1M
- Agave v4.4.0 upgrade and Firedancer mainnet v26.10.5 released on 29/10; the Alpenglow protocol enables faster finality

FED today — more important for all of crypto:

At its 28/10 meeting, the FED held interest rates at 3.75% - 4.00%, with a 10-2 vote; 2 members wanted an additional 0.25% increase
Actual interest rates for the week of 26-30/10: effective Fed funds rate 3.88%, prime rate 7.00%, discount rate 4.00%
The 10-year yield was volatile: it rose from 5.00% to 5.05%, then fell to 4.94% by the end of 30/10
FED Chair Kevin Warsh sent a hawkish signal, saying interest rates would weigh heavily on capital-intensive industries; the market is pricing in a high likelihood of a 0.25% increase in December
BNY forecast: one more hike in December to preserve credibility; 2027 is more uncertain
Today, 3/11, is the U.S. midterm election: all 435 House seats and one-third of Senate seats are up for election. The market predicts Democrats have a 74% chance of taking the Senate, which is also causing volatility in the dollar and crypto

=> In short: the FED is pausing for now, but it is not dovish; it could still hike again in December, so crypto, including SOL and BTC, is facing risk pressure. SOL is oversold, but if the FED hikes, a strong recovery is unlikely right away.
#TinFed $SOL

Fed holds interest rates steady, Bitcoin falls back below $80,000 After a two-day meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10-2 to keep its benchmark interest rate in the 3.75-4% range. Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, proposing an immediate 0.25-percentage-point rate hike.

At the subsequent press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh upgraded the Fed’s assessment of U.S. economic activity from steady growth to strong growth. Domestic spending remained resilient, labor productivity increased, capital investment remained positive, and the labor market continued to absorb workers.
#TinFed #TheoDõiFOMC #BinanceUpdatesProofofReservesAddresses #CZDismissesClaimsBinanceHackWasPredicted #CZDismissesClaimsBinanceHackWasPredicted $AAPLB $NVDAB $MSFTB

The Fed holds rates at 3.75–4%; one vote calls for an immediate hike. $BTC remains steady around $81,000.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has just concluded its meeting, leaving rates unchanged, as most markets had expected. Kevin Warsh was the only member of the board to vote for an immediate rate hike this year.

The official statement struck a cautious tone and offered no hint of a rate cut in December, as many had once hoped.

Whether Warsh’s dissenting vote will sway anyone else at the next meeting remains an open question.

So cheaper money for risk assets, including crypto, is still a matter of waiting.

The price reaction was fairly calm. $BTC only wobbled slightly around $81,000 after the news, with no sharp moves.

Bullish scenario: 1-hour candle closes above 81800.00 → target zone 82989.96. Invalidated if price falls below 81205.02.
Bearish scenario: 1-hour candle closes below 80355.40 → target zone 79165.44. Invalidated if price moves back above 80950.38.

Scenarios are valid for 24 hours.
Personal observation, not investment advice
#TinFed #BitcoinSurpasses$81K #FOMCWatch

🔥🔥🔥
The October 2026 FOMC meeting will take place on October 27–28, 2026. The schedule for the interest rate decision and detailed remarks is as follows:
Interest rate decision announcement (FOMC Statement):
U.S. time: 2:00 PM EDT, Wednesday (October 28, 2026).
Vietnam time: 1:00 AM Thursday (October 29, 2026).
Fed Chair’s remarks at the press conference (Press Conference):
U.S. time: 2:30 PM EDT, Wednesday (October 28, 2026).
Vietnam time: 1:30 AM Thursday (October 29, 2026).
Follow: #TinFed #TheoDõiFOMC
$BTC

🚨 The Fed is facing a tough dilemma!

🔥 U.S. inflation rose to 3.7% in September, while markets await the policy meeting on October 27–28.

According to the BLS, the CPI rose 0.6% from the previous month; gasoline prices increased 9.1%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has yet to give a clear signal about the next interest rate decision.

📉 Impact on crypto: If the Fed signals a tighter policy, a stronger USD and rising bond yields could put pressure on BTC, ETH, and altcoins. Conversely, if the Fed maintains a cautious stance, risk assets could get a boost — but the reaction will depend on what expectations are already priced in.

🎯 Key scenarios to watch: the Fed’s messaging, U.S. Treasury yields, and ETF flows before confirming a trend.
Do you think BTC will rise or pull back after the Fed meeting?

#TinFed

The White House economic adviser says U.S. inflation “still has more work to do.” $BTC pretended not to hear a thing.

Kevin Hassett acknowledged that September’s CPI figures, released mid-month, came in higher than forecast, but still insisted there was no reason for the Fed to raise interest rates. He expects the Fed to stick to its planned rate-cut path.

The futures market isn’t so sure. Bets on the next rate cut remain sharply divided.

Over the past 24 hours, $BTC has hovered around $82,000—neither rising on the reassuring words nor falling any further. The market is waiting for harder evidence than words.

One thing to watch: the Fed’s next remarks, or a sufficiently strong data release that tips the balance in one camp’s favor.

Just my personal observations, not investment advice.

#TinFed #TheoDõiFOMC #BitcoinReboundsAbove$82,000

Key Fed updates today (19/10/2026):

• Interest rate expectations: According to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool – Investing.com, the odds strongly favor the Fed keeping rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% at its upcoming meeting on 28/10 (around 85.1%).
• Exchange rates and markets: The State Bank of Vietnam lowered its central reference exchange rate by 4 dong to 25,633 dong/USD, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around 101.82.
• Liquidity support policy: The Fed is preparing to launch a Treasury bill reinvestment purchase program worth up to USD 14.612 billion, running from 19/10 to 9/11/2026.
• Gold prices & stocks: Asian gold prices edged higher as investors scaled back expectations of further aggressive Fed rate hikes in the near term, while U.S. stocks had already recorded several positive developments.
#TinFed $BTC
$ETH
$SOL

🚨 AMID MACRO TURBULENCE, inflation rises to 3.7%

What’s noteworthy isn’t just the price of $BTC, but Bitcoin’s ability to hold up against a range of pressures: U.S. inflation, interest rates, oil prices, a strong U.S. dollar, and AI-driven cybersecurity concerns.

However, figures such as 3.7% inflation, a Fed rate hike, a 12–13% decline in AI stocks, and oil above $95 need to be verified against the relevant dates. Don’t treat them as the latest data without checking official sources.

Economically, high interest rates and a strong DXY often put pressure on risk assets by raising the cost of capital and reducing the appeal of speculative liquidity. If Bitcoin continues to hold above $80,000 in this environment, that could be a relatively positive signal—but it’s not enough to confirm that the uptrend has returned.

📉 Bullish scenario: BTC holds the $80,000–$81,000 range and selling pressure eases. Bearish scenario: rising yields, ETF outflows, or a break below support could trigger another correction. Thin weekend liquidity could also amplify volatility.

In your view, is Bitcoin showing relative strength, or is it just waiting for another deeper drop?
#TinFed

🚨 U.S. WHOLESALE INFLATION SURGES 6.3%

📊 BLS data shows that U.S. PPI rose 1.3% month over month in September, far exceeding the 0.6% forecast; the annual increase reached 6.3%, the highest since late 2022. Energy prices rose sharply, especially gasoline, driving up production costs.

⚠️ For crypto, this is a signal to be cautious: persistent inflation could make it harder for the Fed to ease monetary policy. If bond yields and the U.S. dollar rise, Bitcoin and altcoins may come under pressure as risk appetite weakens. However, high PPI does not mean BTC will definitely fall; the reaction also depends on market expectations and actual capital flows.

🔎 Scenarios to watch: if price pressures cool, risk assets could recover; if inflation remains hot, volatility could increase. Investors should pay attention to Fed remarks, U.S. Treasury yields, and ETF flows $BTC

Do you think the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance, or has the market already priced in this risk?

#TinFed #Fed

- Yesterday, the CPI report was even worse than expected: both headline and core CPI rose more than the market anticipated. The sell-off happened today as South Korean AI and chip stocks are plunging badly. They may have liquidated crypto to avoid margin calls.
But perhaps the worst-case scenario still won’t happen just yet, because 3/11 remains an important day for President Trump’s election.

- We still have PPI and a Fed speech tomorrow evening this week, so a positive move is still possible.

=> If the market is still weak today, after the Fed Chair’s speech this Friday, he may give a positive signal to keep the market calm. The market still needs more time to prepare for an upcoming crash.
#TinFed $BNB

Key information about the Fed right now:

• Current interest rate: The federal funds rate is being maintained in a range of 3.75%–4.00%.
• September inflation pressures: The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated more than forecast in September, mainly due to pressure from energy prices and rising transportation costs.
• Likelihood of a rate hike in October: According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the probability that the Fed will raise rates by another 0.25% at its October 27–28, 2026 meeting has surged to around 50%–52%.
• Views from Fed officials:
• Some officials believe the Fed is in no rush to raise rates immediately, as it needs more data (such as the September PCE index, which will be released later this month).
• However, some members have left open the possibility of further tightening if inflation does not cool quickly.
• Market movements: In response to this information, U.S. Treasury yields rose, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and global stock markets saw a cautious pullback.$BTC
#TinFed $ETH
$SOL

U.S. CPI FORECAST FOR SEPTEMBER — RELEASED AT 7:30 TONIGHT 🔥
- Headline CPI: expected to rise to 3.6% YoY (due to rising energy prices).
- Core CPI: expected to rise 0.2% MoM, showing a slight cooldown and remaining the indicator most closely watched by the market.
⚠️ Biggest risk: Core CPI comes in higher than expected → the Fed may maintain a more hawkish stance → the USD strengthens, putting pressure on gold.
🔥 At 7:30 tonight, the data release will determine the market’s next direction! $USDT #TinFed

Waller is leaning toward keeping interest rates unchanged at the Fed meeting on September 16, if August inflation continues to cool.

Compared with July, Waller’s stance has become less hawkish. With the U.S. economy and labor market still in good shape, he will focus on inflation data to make a decision.

The CPI 🇺🇸 for August on September 11 will be a key marker:
• Continuing to move closer to the 2% target -> Keep interest rates unchanged.
• Higher than expected -> Slightly raise interest rates.

The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in September has already dropped from 66% → 54%.$
#TinFed

🔥 #TinFed The probability of the Fed raising rates is up to 89% — so why hasn't BTC crashed?

Markets have essentially priced in a 25bp rate hike at the September FOMC. So why hasn't BTC been dumped?

Because the market doesn’t just trade the question of “whether rates will be raised or not”—it also trades what the Fed will say afterward.

📊 I’m watching 3 things:
① 77K
This is an important defense zone.
If 77K holds, I’m not going bearish yet—just because I expect high rate-hike odds.

② 80K
This is the level the Bulls need to reclaim.
Break 80K with volume → sentiment could improve significantly, with the next targets at 82K–83K.

③ The post-FOMC message
This is the part I care about most.
If the Fed raises 25bp but its statement isn’t as hawkish as the market fears, then the “bad news has already been priced in” could instead become a catalyst for BTC.
On the other hand, higher rates + a hawkish tone → be careful with repricing pressure.

🍑 My plan is very simple:
• 77K holds → keep observing the Bulls
• 80K breakout → look for 82K–83K
• 82K–83K holds firm → reopen upside space
• Lose 77K → shift to defense in the short term

I’m not panicking because of the 89% figure, and I’m not FOMO-ing because BTC is rebounding.
Wait for the data. Wait for the FOMC. Wait for price confirmation.
No guessing bottoms. No chasing tops.

Personal opinion only, not investment advice. Capital management always comes first.

Background: The Fed decides to raise interest rates by another 0.25 percentage points in October
U.S. inflation: Headline CPI in August came in at around 3.7%, while core PCE was 3.4%, both higher than previously forecast. The Fed projects that inflation will not return to its 2% target until 2029.
Labor market: The unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, and job growth is strong, indicating that the economy can withstand higher interest rates.
Energy pressures: Oil and energy prices are climbing due to the Middle East conflict and the war with Iran, increasing the risk of “second-round effects” on transportation, goods, and service costs.#TinFed #Nikkei225Jumps2.5%ToThreeMonthHigh

BofA: The Fed could raise rates by more than 5%, investors should prepare mentally.

Bank of America strategists believe investors should be prepared for the possibility that the Fed could raise interest rates to above 5%, given that the market currently expects an additional three rate hikes of 0.25 percentage point each. The market is currently pricing in the Fed raising rates three more times, each by 0.25 percentage point. If this scenario occurs, the federal funds rate could move toward around 4.5% - 4.75%.
However, BofA strategists believe the “neutral” rate could return to the highs previously seen in the 2022-2023 rate-hiking cycle. At that time, the Fed raised the interest rate range to 5.25% - 5.5% in July 2023. Using the measure that BofA applies, this rule suggests the federal funds rate should be around 5.3%.
$BTC $AKE $RAYSOL
#TinFed