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puellmultiple
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$BTC | Puell Multiple is the miner-economics signal that complements Hash Ribbons. David Puell published the formula in 2019: daily-issuance USD value divided by the 365-day moving average of daily-issuance USD. Above 4 historically marks cycle tops; below 0.5 historically marks cycle bottoms.
Why the ratio works. When BTC is parabolic at a cycle top, daily miner revenue spikes far above its 365-day baseline. Miners have maximum incentive to sell aggressively to cover costs + lock in profits + fund capex. Puell captures that miner-distribution pressure in one number. Inverse at cycle bottoms: low price, miners barely covering costs, capitulation as weak miners shut down.
Historical Puell at cycle inflections:
- 2013-12 top: approx 6.5
- 2017-12 top: approx 5.2
- 2021-04 top: approx 4.3
- 2018-12 bottom: approx 0.31
- 2022-11 bottom: approx 0.38
Cycle peaks have printed progressively lower readings each cycle (6.5 to 5.2 to 4.3), consistent with diminishing-amplitude thesis. The post-2024 halving cut block subsidy by half, mechanically pushing Puell lower across the board.
Honest limitation: Puell is one of the slower-responding indicators because the 365-day baseline takes time to incorporate fresh price action. Combine with faster signals (Pi Cycle, Mayer) for tactical timing.
https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/cycle-indicators/bitcoin-puell-multiple/
#SatoshiMacro #PuellMultiple #Bitcoin
Why the ratio works. When BTC is parabolic at a cycle top, daily miner revenue spikes far above its 365-day baseline. Miners have maximum incentive to sell aggressively to cover costs + lock in profits + fund capex. Puell captures that miner-distribution pressure in one number. Inverse at cycle bottoms: low price, miners barely covering costs, capitulation as weak miners shut down.
Historical Puell at cycle inflections:
- 2013-12 top: approx 6.5
- 2017-12 top: approx 5.2
- 2021-04 top: approx 4.3
- 2018-12 bottom: approx 0.31
- 2022-11 bottom: approx 0.38
Cycle peaks have printed progressively lower readings each cycle (6.5 to 5.2 to 4.3), consistent with diminishing-amplitude thesis. The post-2024 halving cut block subsidy by half, mechanically pushing Puell lower across the board.
Honest limitation: Puell is one of the slower-responding indicators because the 365-day baseline takes time to incorporate fresh price action. Combine with faster signals (Pi Cycle, Mayer) for tactical timing.
https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/cycle-indicators/bitcoin-puell-multiple/
#SatoshiMacro #PuellMultiple #Bitcoin
🟠 Bitcoin Bottom Signals Flash: Miner Capitulation Looms, Whales Stack BTC
Bitcoin trades near $62,600, roughly 50% off its peak. Two critical on-chain signals are screaming: the bear market bottom is closing in 🎯, but the final flush isn't confirmed.
The Puell Multiple, tracking miner revenue against its yearly average, is hovering just above 0.5. Historically, a decisive drop below 0.5 signals miner capitulation and marks cycle lows. We're on the edge of that zone, suggesting more pain 🩸 for miners before the bounce.
Meanwhile, long-term holder supply—coins unmoved for over 155 days—just hit a record 16.75 million BTC. That's nearly 84% of circulating supply, a massive accumulation wave 🌊 by smart money while price is down.
The message is clear: strong hands are buying the dip, but the full capitulation event that typically ends bear markets hasn't fully played out. Past cycles saw LTH supply rise as Puell Multiple bottomed.
On-chain models hint at a potential low near $47,000. While Bitcoin's maturing market might mean a shallower Puell dip this time, the confluence of these signals points to a generational buying opportunity 💰 forming.
📊 BTC is likely to see continued volatility, with a potential final leg down towards $47,000 in the short-to-medium term. This capitulation phase, if it plays out, would set the stage for a significant bullish reversal across the broader crypto market.
Do you think Bitcoin hits $47,000 before a major reversal, or will patient accumulation absorb the sell pressure sooner? 👇
#bitcoin #onchain #puellmultiple #lth #bottom
Bitcoin trades near $62,600, roughly 50% off its peak. Two critical on-chain signals are screaming: the bear market bottom is closing in 🎯, but the final flush isn't confirmed.
The Puell Multiple, tracking miner revenue against its yearly average, is hovering just above 0.5. Historically, a decisive drop below 0.5 signals miner capitulation and marks cycle lows. We're on the edge of that zone, suggesting more pain 🩸 for miners before the bounce.
Meanwhile, long-term holder supply—coins unmoved for over 155 days—just hit a record 16.75 million BTC. That's nearly 84% of circulating supply, a massive accumulation wave 🌊 by smart money while price is down.
The message is clear: strong hands are buying the dip, but the full capitulation event that typically ends bear markets hasn't fully played out. Past cycles saw LTH supply rise as Puell Multiple bottomed.
On-chain models hint at a potential low near $47,000. While Bitcoin's maturing market might mean a shallower Puell dip this time, the confluence of these signals points to a generational buying opportunity 💰 forming.
📊 BTC is likely to see continued volatility, with a potential final leg down towards $47,000 in the short-to-medium term. This capitulation phase, if it plays out, would set the stage for a significant bullish reversal across the broader crypto market.
Do you think Bitcoin hits $47,000 before a major reversal, or will patient accumulation absorb the sell pressure sooner? 👇
#bitcoin #onchain #puellmultiple #lth #bottom
🟠 Bitcoin Bottom Signals Are Flashing: Miner Capitulation Looms, Whales Are Accumulating BTC
Bitcoin is trading around $62,600, roughly 50% below its peak. Two critical on-chain signals are screaming that the bottom of the bear market is approaching 🎯, but the final sell-off has not been confirmed yet.
The Puell Multiple, which tracks miners’ revenue relative to its yearly average, is hovering slightly above 0.5. Historically, a decisive drop below 0.5 signals miner capitulation and marks cyclic lows. We’re right on the edge of this zone, implying more pain 🩸 for miners before a rebound.
Meanwhile, the supply held by long-term holders—coins that haven’t moved for more than 155 days—has just hit a record 16.75 million BTC. That’s nearly 84% of the circulating supply: a massive accumulation wave 🌊 from smart money while the price is low.
The message is clear: strong hands are buying the dip, but the full capitulation event that typically ends bear markets hasn’t fully played out. Past cycles saw LTH supply rise as the Puell Multiple reached the bottom.
On-chain models hint at a potential bottom around $47,000. While a more mature Bitcoin market could mean a shallower Puell drop this time, the convergence of these signals suggests a potential buying opportunity for the next generation 💰.
📊 BTC is likely to show continued volatility, with a potential last dip to $47,000 in the short to medium term. If this capitulation phase happens, it will set the stage for a major bullish reversal across the broader crypto market.
What do you think: will Bitcoin reach $47,000 before a big reversal, or will patient accumulation absorb sell pressure earlier? 👇
#bitcoin #onchain #puellmultiple #lth #bottom
Bitcoin is trading around $62,600, roughly 50% below its peak. Two critical on-chain signals are screaming that the bottom of the bear market is approaching 🎯, but the final sell-off has not been confirmed yet.
The Puell Multiple, which tracks miners’ revenue relative to its yearly average, is hovering slightly above 0.5. Historically, a decisive drop below 0.5 signals miner capitulation and marks cyclic lows. We’re right on the edge of this zone, implying more pain 🩸 for miners before a rebound.
Meanwhile, the supply held by long-term holders—coins that haven’t moved for more than 155 days—has just hit a record 16.75 million BTC. That’s nearly 84% of the circulating supply: a massive accumulation wave 🌊 from smart money while the price is low.
The message is clear: strong hands are buying the dip, but the full capitulation event that typically ends bear markets hasn’t fully played out. Past cycles saw LTH supply rise as the Puell Multiple reached the bottom.
On-chain models hint at a potential bottom around $47,000. While a more mature Bitcoin market could mean a shallower Puell drop this time, the convergence of these signals suggests a potential buying opportunity for the next generation 💰.
📊 BTC is likely to show continued volatility, with a potential last dip to $47,000 in the short to medium term. If this capitulation phase happens, it will set the stage for a major bullish reversal across the broader crypto market.
What do you think: will Bitcoin reach $47,000 before a big reversal, or will patient accumulation absorb sell pressure earlier? 👇
#bitcoin #onchain #puellmultiple #lth #bottom
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