ppi

BTC under $70,000 into PPI: $1.3B flushed, $67,879 decides next
I called the $70,000 reclaim the bounce trigger in my last $BTC post. It never came. $70,000 broke in the Asian session, $1.3B in leveraged positions was flushed in 24 hours, and Bitcoin is now sitting $800 above the line that decides whether this is a bottom or the next leg down.
That line is $67,879 — the 200-week average. I keep staring at it because everything else has already given way. $73,510 broke on Monday. $71,255 broke overnight. $70,000 broke this morning. The 200-week average is the last big line with a name on it, and today's low of $67,568 already poked under it once.
What happened, with the numbers fresh this morning: $BTC $68,672 on Binance spot at 08:28 UTC, down 6.6% in 24 hours, range $67,568–$73,632. Finnhub's quote at 08:27 UTC agrees at $68,647. The Nov 12 close was $71,460. The low of $68,297 is the lowest since Aug 19, per Bloomberg. This is not a wick — it is a full session of selling.
Why it matters: the flush was real money, not noise. CoinGlass counts more than $1.3B liquidated across the market in 24 hours, over $1.2B of it longs — and nearly $500M of that came as $70,000 broke. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now lost about $1.44B over five straight sessions, and $2.5B since Oct 30. Stablecoin supply has shrunk $14.2B in 30 days, the sharpest contraction since 2022. That is the fuel leaving the tank: fewer dollars standing by to buy the dip.
The macro side is doing the pushing. The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5.1%, the dollar is at a 19-month high, and a December Fed hike is now fully priced. Today at 13:30 UTC comes October PPI — consensus +0.4% month-on-month and 6.6% year-on-year, after September's 1.3% surge. A hot print hits every risk asset at once; a soft one takes some hike bets off the table. That is the whole trade today: PPI decides whether $67,879 holds or breaks.
My stance, and I will grade it honestly: leaning bearish into PPI, not strong. Fear & Greed sits at 20, Extreme Fear, and RSI is 24.9 — deeply oversold, the zone where sellers usually tire. $ETH is already under $2,000 at $1,932, and the whole board is red. Leaning, not strong, because an oversold market into a data print can snap back violently — and a soft PPI is exactly the kind of surprise that does it.
The levels, so you know exactly what to watch. Resistance first: a reclaim of $70,000, then today's high $73,632, where the biggest short cluster sits. Support: $67,879, the 200-week average, then today's low $67,568. If $67,879 breaks and the daily close lands under it, the next open space runs to $65,000–$67,500. If $67,879 holds through PPI and price closes back above $70,000, the breakdown fails and the bounce I called yesterday finally starts — late, but real.
What would prove me wrong: a daily close back above $70,000 kills the bearish view outright. A close under $67,879 confirms it and opens $65,000. Between those two lines this is chop, and chasing the first PPI candle is how most of that $1.3B got liquidated — keep size light into 13:30 UTC.
The next update triggers on the PPI print: hot PPI with a close under $67,879, or soft PPI with a $70,000 reclaim — whichever prints first, I will own it.
Are you watching $67,879 hold or break into PPI — and what is your plan if it breaks first?
Not financial advice. DYOR.
#Bitcoin #PPI #CryptoMarket