metrics

#bitcoin #metrics
📊 BTC: Big long washout and bottom search. What do the metrics say?

The last week of June turned out to be a hot one. We saw a classic retail capitulation, liquidity withdrawal "under the floor" and a further transition to consolidation. Let's analyze what happened behind the $BTC price movement from June 22 to 28.

📉 Key facts of the fall
Capitulation and volumes: After a flat in the $64k–$65k area, the price was pushed down to a local bottom near $58k–$59k. The fall was accompanied by a strong surge in trading volumes (over $20b on Binance), which indicates active buyout of the strait by large players.
Liquidation cascade: Massive washout of long positions amounted to over $150m per day.

🔍 What about derivatives and sentiment?
Open Interest (OI) holds the blow: Despite the liquidation, open interest remained high (about $15b). Instead of the liquidated longs, new positions were immediately opened, with Binance leading the way (over $6b).
Sentiment cooling: The Funding Rate fell to zero during the spill (and even into the negative on some exchanges), and the 3-month basis sank from 4.5% to 2-3%. The market has completely cleared of overheating.
Market sales stop: Cumulative delta (CVD) after aggressive sales finally fell into a horizontal flat. Sales "by market" subsided, and limit orders began to hold the price.
Who was pressuring the market? The main initiators of the fall during the month were the American (US) and European (EU) sessions. Asia (APAC) behaved neutrally.

📌 Conclusion and scenario
The market has undergone a qualitative cleansing from excessive margin leverage. Panic stops have been collected, funding has cooled.
1️⃣ Baseline scenario: As market selling has stopped, we expect accumulation in the range of $60,000 - $62,500 in the coming days to test the upper limit of the decline.
2️⃣ Alternative: Until we see clear market buying (CVD), high Open Interest leaves the risk of a repeated withdrawal of liquidity below if buyers turn out to be passive.