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Crypto asset manager Grayscale Investments examined the CLARITY Act’s place in Washington’s digital asset policy debate as lawmakers consider how crypto markets should be supervised. Zach Pandl, Grayscale Head of Research, outlined the bill’s role in shaping digital asset regulation on May 7.
Rather than treating the legislation as a narrow policy update, Pandl described CLARITY as a broad market structure bill. He wrote that it would clarify which federal regulator oversees which activities. The proposal would create a framework separating investment contracts from digital commodities. Under that approach, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would regulate investment contracts, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) would oversee digital commodities. The Grayscale head of research stated:
That enforcement-led approach has shaped Grayscale’s view of the bill’s importance. Pandl wrote that tens of billions of dollars in regulatory fines have been paid. He also said many potential participants have avoided crypto due to fears of regulatory backlash, even as the market expanded into a multi-trillion-dollar ecosystem.
Developers, investors, exchanges, brokers, custodians, and asset issuers would all be affected, according to Grayscale. Developers would receive clearer guidance for structuring and launching projects. Investors would face less legal uncertainty around ownership and project outlook. Trading venues, brokers, and custodians would gain clearer registration paths.
Asset issuers would also face more defined requirements for token distribution and ongoing compliance. Regulators, in Grayscale’s view, would operate within a clearer framework instead of relying on fragmented enforcement decisions. Pandl presented that structure as central to reducing uncertainty across digital asset markets.
Public pressure has also entered the Senate debate. Stand With Crypto delivered a petition with more than 28,000 signatures to Washington on April 30, urging the Senate Banking Committee to mark up the CLARITY Act. A survey released on May 7 found 52% of voters supported the bill after reviewing a neutral summary, while 70% said the United States should already have passed clear crypto legislation. Committee timing sharpened after the Senate Banking Committee scheduled a May 14 executive session to consider H.R.3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025.
Passage remains uncertain, despite renewed movement in Washington. Pandl cited Polymarket odds giving the CLARITY Act a 67% chance of passing in 2026. The bill still must advance through the Senate Banking Committee, pass the full Senate, and win approval from both chambers. Grayscale said meaningful progress before the July recess would be important to maintain momentum.
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CEO Paul Prager said the 20-year lease reflects surging demand for AI computing and validates TeraWulf's strategy of owning power, land and operations.
Prager said the Kentucky project won Anthropic through a competitive bidding process centered on access to grid power and long-term infrastructure.
The contract is valued at roughly $19 billion over its life, exceeding TeraWulf's current market capitalization, according to the interview.
Prager said TeraWulf already works with Anthropic and Google at its Lake Mariner campus in New York, giving the companies an established relationship.
Prager was interviewed by Jennifer Sanasie on CoinDesk's Public Keys at the New York Stock Exchan
TeraWulf is shedding non-core assets to focus capital on AI data centers it fully controls.
Prager said the company's sale of its interest in the Abernathy project reflects a disciplined capital allocation strategy rather than a change in AI ambitions.
He said TeraWulf earned a strong return on the sale and plans to reinvest the proceeds into wholly owned AI infrastructure projects, including additional sites in eastern Kentucky.
Prager said owning the site, power supply and operations gives TeraWulf greater control over customer relationships and long-term return
Prager argued the AI infrastructure boom is constrained by power quality rather than available land.
He said the U.S. faces a shortage of electricity and warned investors that "not all megawatts are created equally."
Prager said successful AI campuses require reliable generation, redundant transmission, favorable regulation and strong community relationships.
He added that TeraWulf focuses on redeveloping former industrial sites and, where needed, adding new power generation to support both AI facilities and the broader electric gri
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WASHINGTON, April 23 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's administration is considering more than doubling an annual refugee limit to bring more white South Africans into the ​U.S., according to three people familiar with the matter.
Trump, a Republican, paused refugee admissions from around the world when he took office in January 2025. Weeks later, ‌he issued an executive order prioritizing the resettlement of European-descended Afrikaners, saying they faced race-based persecution in majority-Black South Africa. South Africa’s government vehemently denies the claims.
The U.S. Refugee Admissions Program was formally established in 1980 after hundreds of thousands of people fled wars in Vietnam and Cambodia. The program expanded to provide safe haven to persecuted people around the globe. Trump has used it almost exclusively to bring white South Africans into the U.S., ​part of a broader upending of norms around humanitarian protection, opens new tab.
In recent weeks, U.S. officials have discussed expanding the 7,500-person refugee cap by 10,000 to allow more South Africans of ​Afrikaner ethnicity to obtain refugee status, said people familiar with internal planning, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share non-public government discussions.
On Thursday, Assistant Secretary of State Andrew Veprek said an increase in the refugee limit was being considered, but did not provide details. "We're looking ​at the pace of resettlement right now and thinking about how quickly it's going, and do we need to increase the ceiling for the current fiscal year as well," he said at ​an event hosted by the Center for Immigration Studies, which supports lower levels of immigration.
The ⁠White House referred questions to the U.S. State Department.
Blacks make up 81% of South Africa's population, according to 2022 census data. Afrikaners and other white South Africans constitute 7% of the population.
During the apartheid era, which ended with the first democratic elections in 1994, South Africa maintained a racially segregated society with separate schools, neighborhoods and public facilities for people classified as Black, colored, white or Asian.
Trump set the record-low refugee ceiling of 7,500 for fiscal year 2026, which began October 1, 2025, ‌down from ⁠a ceiling of 125,000 a year under former President Joe Biden.
The U.S. ​admitted about 4,500 South Africans as refugees through the first six months of the fiscal year, State Department figures show, on pace to exceed Trump’s existing limits for the program. The only ​refugees other than white South Africans to enter this fiscal year were three Afghans, according to State Department statistics.
U.S. officials are weighing whether religious minorities from Iran and countries that used to be part of the Soviet Union could be included under what’s known as the “Lautenberg” program, the person said. The program stems from a 1989 budget amendment introduced by then-U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg that aimed to make it easier for Jewish refugees to resettle in the U.S.
The Trump administration is also discussing bringing in refugees of other nationalities, one of the people familiar with planning said.
Even as ​Trump looks to further ramp up the entry ​of South Africans, an internal U.S. government ⁠email reviewed by Reuters showed that at least four refugees already in the U.S. have returned to South Africa.
One South African who arrived in Minneapolis in late January departed the U.S. less than a month later, the email showed. Case notes said that plans for his daughter and ​grandchildren to join him “fell through” so he returned to his home country.
A pair of South Africans who arrived in Twin Falls, Idaho, in ​late January via the ⁠refugee program turned around a week later, saying a parent was ill in South Africa, the email showed
Another South African resettled in Moline, Illinois, in mid-March returned home weeks later, the email said.
Resettlement occurred quickly, she had not thoroughly thought through the process, and her family in South Africa has decided not to continue their own resettlement process,” case notes said. “Additionally, the client’s age (66) and ability to provide ⁠for herself is ​a concern.”
Trump has portrayed South Africa as dangerous and oppressive for whites, yet thousands of white South Africans abroad have ​returned to the country in recent years, Reuters reported in March.
U.S. government contracting documents reported by Reuters in February said the U.S. aimed to process 4,500 white South Africans per month through the refugee program. The documents also said the ​State Department paid to install more than a dozen trailers on embassy property in Pretoria to conduct interviews.
Reporting by Ted Hesson; Additional reporting by Jonathan Landay; Editing by Craig Timberg and David Gregorio
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XRP-focused crypto treasury firm Evernorth has submitted a Form S-4 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in a process to go public through a business combination with special purpose acquisition company Armada Acquisition Corp. II.
The Wednesday filing shows that the combined entity will operate as Evernorth Holdings Inc. after the proposed merger, and is expected to list on Nasdaq under the ticker symbols XRPN for its Class A common stock and XRPNW for warrants.
The filing estimates that the merged entity will hold at least 473 million XRP at launch, including contributions from Ripple and open-market purchases funded by the merger proceeds. Previous reports stated that the merger transaction is expected to raise over $1 billion in gross proceeds, including investments from SBI, Ripple, Pantera Capital, Kraken, and GSR.
An S-4 filing is a preliminary registration statement required by the SEC for companies seeking to publicly register shares in connection with a business combination, such as a merger or acquisition.
Evernorth, established in 2025, is an institutional vehicle primarily holding and managing XRP as its core reserve asset. Its strategy includes acquiring XRP, participating in the XRP ecosystem, generating yield through lending and liquidity provisioning, operating validators on the XRP Ledger, and utilizing Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin for certain operations.
Evernorth is built to provide investors more than just exposure to XRP's price," Evernorth CEO Asheesh Birla said in an October statement. "As we capitalize on existing TradFi yield generation strategies and deploy into DeFi yield opportunities, we also contribute to the growth and maturity of that ecosystem. This approach is designed to generate returns for shareholders while supporting XRP's utility and adoption."
Meanwhile, Armada Acquisition Corp. II, completed its initial public offering in May 2025, raising approximately $230 million.
According to The Block's crypto price page, XRP is currently the fourth-largest cryptocurrency with a market capitalization of $89.6 billion. The cryptocurrency is trading at $1.46, down 4% in the past 24 hours, leading up to 10:30 p.m. ET.
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New data shows unusually high win rates in defense bets, building on research that 3% of traders drive prices and under 1% capture most profits.
Across political markets, such “longshot” bets typically succeed about 14% of the time. In military-linked contracts, success rates have topped 50% in some cases.
Markets tied to specific government policies, such as military and defense and foreign affairs, are harder to forecast using public information alone," the authors wrote, making them "more susceptible to information asymmetries," including insider trading or specialized knowledge.
In those markets, the gap between informed and uninformed traders may be widest, creating conditions in which a small group can consistently outperform not just by reacting faster, but by knowing more
For its part, Polymarket touts its market surveillance teams and cooperation with the Department of Justice on the Venezuela case. Trading on confidential knowledge is prohibited on the platform, as it is on Kalshi
The ACDC report's findings add to a growing body of research pointing in the same direction. A working paper from London Business School and Yale found that roughly 3% of traders account for most price discovery on Polymarket.
Separate analysis from blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs showed that profits are even more concentrated, with fewer than 1% of wallets capturing about half of all gains. ACDC's contribution is to suggest where some of that edge may come from.
The report examines the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran as a case study. Polymarket listed several date-specific contracts on whether a strike would occur. Markets tied to June 19 and June 20 expired without incident, and no longshot bets won.
The strike came at 18:40 ET on June 21. In the hours leading up to it, 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed across the contracts that ultimately resolved YES. Eight wallets shared about $1.8 million in profits, with one taking nearly $500,000.
The Pentagon had designed the operation to be unreadable from the outside, using decoy bombers and long-range stealth aircraft to avoid detection. Despite that, a small number of traders placed large, well-timed bets on the outcome.
The pattern extends beyond a single event. Across Polymarket’s military and defense category, the report found that in five of the six two-hour windows before market resolution, winning longshot bets outnumbered losing ones, contrary to what market prices imply.
Longshot bets can outperform for other reasons, including mispricing or shifts in public expectations. But the consistency of the patterns, especially in markets tied to military decisions, suggests that some participants may be operating with information advantages that others do not have.
ACDC, being a nonprofit research group funded through the Fund for Constitutional Government, has no surveillance product to sell, compared to Solidus Labs, whose own recent Polymarket analysis doubles as a marketing case for the platform it licenses to Kalshi.
ACDC's recommendations include identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups, and limits on how granular contracts can become.
The report’s conclusion goes further, calling for “an evidence-informed debate about whether the public should be betting on these outcomes at all.”
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