Crypto Pulse Media

At their worst levels, U.S. stock index futures had been down more than 2%, but equity markets are barely lower one hour into Monday's trading session.
Crypto prices are rebounding from their worst weekend levels in early U.S. trading on Monday alongside a sizable bounce in U.S. equity indices.
Roughly one hour into the session, the Nasdaq is down just 0.1% after futures at one point overnight had indicated a plunge of more than 2%. The S&P 500 and DJIA are also posting just very modest losses.
Gold remains higher by 2% and crude oil by 7%. The U.S. dollar index is having one of its strongest sessions in weeks, gaining 1%.
Bitcoin
BTC
$69,415.64
has moved up to $68,600, ahead 2.3% over the past 24 hours. Ether (ETH) is higher by 1.4%, with solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP) up similar amoun
Crypto-related stocks are posting even larger gains, led by Circle's (CRCL) 12% advance. Strategy (MSTR) is higher by 6% and Galaxy Digital (GLXY) by 4.7%.
On the macro side, the ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4, for February, marking another month of sector expansion and the first consecutive run of prints above 50 since the fourth quarter of 2022. This follows Friday’s Chicago Business Barometer, which rose to 57.7 in February 2026 from 54 previously and well above expectations of 52.8. The reading signals only the second expansion since November 2023 and reflects the strongest pace of US activity growth since May 2022.
Against the backdrop of conflict in the Middle East, reaccelerating manufacturing activity, hotter-than-expected PPI data last week, and higher oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions, a March rate cut now appears effectively off the table ahead of the Federal Reserve’s March 18 meeting.
Normally, that might be considered a headwind for crypto prices, but it's quite possible that markets had already priced in tighter than previously expected U.S. monetary policy.
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#USIsraelStrikeIran .

The bill proposes a 10% tax on gains from regulated crypto platforms, withheld quarterly, with the president having the power to adjust the rate between 0% and 20%.
Turkey’s ruling AK Party has introduced a sweeping economic bill in parliament that would formalize crypto taxation while revising a range of tax and spending rules.
The draft, now before the Turkish Grand National Assembly, would amend the Income Tax Law and Expenditure Taxes Law to create a new framework for cryptocurrencies, the country’s state news agency Anadolu Ajansı reports.
Crypto platforms regulated under the country’s Capital Markets Law would withhold a 10% tax on gains each quarter, regardless of whether the investor is an individual or company, resident or non-resident.
Service providers would also pay a 0.03% transaction tax on the sale amount or market value of crypto assets they broker.
Crypto brokers and other intermediaries would be on the hook for tax checks based on the records they keep. If a user provides wrong or incomplete information, tax authorities would pursue that person for any shortfall, the news outlet writes.
The bill also makes clear that key terms such as “crypto asset,” “wallet,” and “platform” carry the same meaning as in Turkey’s Capital Markets Law, tying the tax regime to existing financial rules.
The country’s president would also have the power to lower the 10% withholding tax to 0% or raise it to 20%, depending on the type of token, how long it was held, who issued it, or the type of wallet used.
The bill exempts crypto deliveries subject to the transaction tax from value-added tax (VAT) and excludes foundation university hospitals from corporate tax exemptions starting in 2027.
The crypto provisions would take effect two months after publication if approved.
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The blockchain analytics firm said flows from Iran’s largest exchange spiked immediately after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Tehran, pointing to possible capital flight.
Crypto outflows from Iran’s largest exchange jumped 700% within minutes of the first U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, blockchain analytics firm Elliptic said in a Monday blog post.
Elliptic said transaction volumes leaving Nobitex spiked almost immediately after the strikes, suggesting a rush to move funds offshore. Initial blockchain tracing indicates the crypto was sent to overseas exchanges that have historically received significant inflows from Iran.
The activity “potentially represents capital flight from Iran that bypasses the traditional banking system,” according to Dr. Tom Robinson, Elliptic's co-founder and chief scientist.
Over the weekend, coordinated U.S. and Israeli airstrikes struck multiple targets in Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and escalating a wider Middle East conflict. The attacks stoked market volatility as investors priced in potential disruptions to oil supplies through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, sending global crude prices sharply higher and triggering broad sell-offs in equities and safe-haven buying across assets.
Nobitex allows users to convert Iranian rials into crypto and withdraw funds to external wallets, offering a route around traditional banking channels.
The exchange processed $7.2 billion in crypto transactions in 2025 and claims more than 11 million users, making it central to Iran’s digital asset ecosystem, Robinson said.
Elliptic has previously linked the exchange to IRGC-aligned financial activity and reported in January that Iran’s central bank appeared to use Nobitex in efforts to support the weakening rial.
Previous reports have detailed Iran’s growing use of cryptocurrencies as a hedge against a weakening rial and as a potential workaround to international sanctions, with U.S. authorities probing whether digital-asset platforms have enabled state-linked actors to move funds and access hard currency outside the traditional banking system. Blockchain research cited in those reports estimates that Iran-linked crypto activity has reached into the billions of dollars annually, spanning retail users as well as, according to officials, sanctioned entities.
Robinson also flagged additional surges in Iranian crypto outflows earlier this year. The largest came on Jan. 9, following widespread anti-regime demonstrations and a subsequent government-imposed internet blackout.
Two additional surges followed U.S. sanctions announcements targeting Iranian actors, the report said, suggesting crypto may be used to mitigate the impact of sanctions.
Bitcoin
BTC
$68,532.11
and major altcoins dropped sharply in the immediate aftermath of the strikes, with BTC briefly falling below $64,000 before recovering to the mid-$60,000s, underscoring crypto’s sensitivity to geopolitical tensions. Ether (ETH) and other tokens also declined, though several remained above pre-strike levels, pointing to a relatively swift rebound after the initial sell-o
The world's largest cryptocurrency was over 2% lower at publication time, trading around $65,500. Ether, the second-largest crypto by market cap, was 3.8% lower at around $1,930.
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#AnthropicUSGovClash .

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The conflict between U.S., Israel and Iran remains the day's biggest story as the attacks intensify and spread.
Markets reacted as they typically do: by de-risking and sending oil prices higher. Bitcoin
BTC
$65,979.77
dropped to $66,300, down 0.5% over 24 hours, having hit a high of $68,000 over the weekend. The CoinDesk 20 Index fell over 2%, signaling broader losses in the crypto market and futures tied to the S&P 500 index lost
Looking past the headlines and panic, the war could only strengthen the "debasement trade," a strategy in which investors rotate into scarce-supply assets like gold and bitcoin in anticipation of a decline in the value of fiat (paper) currencies.
Governments in the U.S. and elsewhere already owe more than they generate in economic growth. Their finances will only worsen the longer the war drags on. In such situations, governments don't collect enough in taxes. Instead, they force central banks to "print money" through bond purchases or quantitive easing (QE) to monetize debt. This floods fiat supply and dilutes purchasing power. Hello debasement.
Traders front-run that process by loading up on store-of-value assets like gold and BTC. The yellow metal has been on a tear for over a year mainly on debasement flows. BTC did not participate back then. But now, having nearly halved to under $67,000 since October, it looks oversold. The possibility of the debasement trade catalyzing a bounce in the largest cryptocurrency cannot be ruled out.
Besides, historically the Fed turns dovish with liquidity easing during geopolitical stress, supporting asset prices, as Maelstrom Fund's CIO Arthur Hayes noted in his blog post.
Let's see how things unfold. In the meantime traders need to watch headline risks and oil upswings. Stay alert!
Trump says Iran war may last ‘four weeks or less’ as strikes escalate (Euronews): Trump says the Iran war could last four weeks or less as U.S. and Israeli forces continue their strikes in Iran, which is responding with hits on Gulf states, Israel and U.S. targets.
New Iranian strikes reported across region, including in Saudi Arabia, as US planes crash in Kuwait (BBC): New Iranian strikes were reported across the Middle East, with explosions in Bahrain, Dubai and Saudi Arabia.
U.S. equity futures fall in pre-market trading as oil, gold retreat from highs (CoinDesk): U.S. equities fell in pre-market trading. The Invesco QQQ ETF declined 1.5%. A Saudi Arabia oil refinery was hit by Iran, pushing WTI crude oil as high as $75 per barrel. Gold rallied more than 2% to $5,400 per ounce.
Hedge funds, insurers rush to gauge exposure as Iran spirals (Bloomberg): Hedge funds, banks and insurers rushed to size up their exposure to the Middle East after weekend attacks on Iran fueled chaos across the region.
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HSBC Asset Management notes a spike in the policy uncertainty index on recent US trade and Federal Reserve headlines, even as US stocks range-trade and volatility stays contained. The team sees US growth near trend, with sticky but gradually moderating inflation through 2026. They argue rising policy uncertainty supports expectations that the Fed will stay on hold in coming months.
The policy uncertainty index spiked last week on the recent trade and Fed headlines. But financial markets appear unconcerned – US stocks are range-trading, the VIX volatility index is relatively low at 20, and credit spreads are at multi-decade tights. What’s going on?"
First, it is very likely that textual data overstates uncertainty. Even the academics who built the policy uncertainty metric now accept that."
A lower effective tariff rate is good news for GDP growth and inflation. US growth is running around its trend pace, thanks to robust profits and the AI capex boom."
And, while US inflation is likely to remain a bit sticky through 2026, recent data shows a gradual, bumpy journey back to the inflation target."
Rising policy uncertainty reinforces the idea that the Fed stays on hold over the next few months."
Meanwhile, the action in markets continues under the surface. There is a “great rotation” underway, from growth and momentum, into value and emerging markets. That process has much further to run."
The real test for investment markets in 2026 will come if inflation remains high, which would constrain the Fed. Or if profits start to wobble."
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#AnthropicUSGovClash

Gold opens with a bullish gap as escalating Middle East conflict boosts safe-haven assets.
The intraday move up seems unaffected by a strong pickup in demand for the US Dollar.
Stagflation fears further underpin the XAU/USD pair and contribute to the positive move.
Gold (XAU/USD) sticks to strong intraday gains through the first half of the European session and currently trades above the $5,400 mark, or its highest level since late January. Investors are rapidly abandoning riskier assets and opting for safe-haven investments amid an intense wave of the global risk-aversion trade.Meanwhile, the US Producer Price Index (PPI), released on Friday, revived concerns about still sticky inflation. Furthermore, slowing economic growth creates a scenario where the Federal Reserve (Fed) cannot cut interest rates without reigniting inflation or hold without slowing the economy further. This turns out to be another factor underpinning the non-yielding Gold, though a strong intraday US Dollar (USD) rally to the highest level since January 23 might cap further gains.
A dramatic escalation of geopolitical tensions in West Asia over the weekend unsettles global markets. In fact, the US and Israel launched a coordinated military strike on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Adding to this, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy announced the closure of a critical maritime chokepoint – the Strait of Hormuz – and raised the risk of a protracted war in the Middle East. This, in turn, provides a strong boost to the traditional safe-haven Gold at the start of a new week.
Meanwhile, the US Producer Price Index (PPI), released on Friday, revived concerns about still sticky inflation. Furthermore, slowing economic growth creates a scenario where the Federal Reserve (Fed) cannot cut interest rates without reigniting inflation or hold without slowing the economy further. This turns out to be another factor underpinning the non-yielding Gold, though a strong intraday US Dollar (USD) rally to the highest level since January 23 might cap further gains.
Traders this week will confront important US macro releases, scheduled at the beginning of a new month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI later today. This will be followed by the ADP report on private-sector employment and the ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, and the closely-watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The focus, however, will remain glued to geopolitical developments, which will have a significant impact on the global risk sentiment and play a key role in driving demand for the safe-haven Gold.
Gold seems poised to climb further amid a bullish technical setup
Against the backdrop of last week's breakout above the $5,200 horizontal barrier, the strong move up on Monday favors the XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands above its signal in positive territory, with the histogram expanding, which supports building bullish momentum after the latest leg higher.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index at 68.88 hovers just below overbought territory, showing firm but not extreme upside pressure. Initial support emerges near $5,260, where the latest consolidation area begins, followed by a deeper floor around $5,210, guarding the prior congestion band. A break below $5,210 would expose $5,180 as the next downside level.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the recent spike high around $5,390. A sustained push above $5,390 would open the way for an extension of the uptrend, while a failure to clear this barrier would keep XAU/USD vulnerable to a corrective pullback toward the cited supports.
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#AnthropicUSGovClash

Solana led major tokens with a 10.8% bounce, while ether reclaimed $2,000 and bitcoin climbed back above $66,800 ahead of traditional futures opens on Sunday.
Crypto markets snapped back hard on Sunday after spending Saturday pricing in what looked like the start of a prolonged regional war.
Bitcoin climbed to $66,843, up 5.2% over the past 24 hours, recovering most of the losses from Saturday's slide below $64,000 after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.
The bounce accelerated after Iranian state TV confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, which markets interpreted as raising the odds of a shorter conflict.
Solana led the recovery among majors, surging 10.8% to $86.42. Ether rose 7.5% to reclaim $1,994, putting it back within touching distance of $2,000 for the first time since Thursday. Cardano added 6.7%, dogecoin gained 6.5%, XRP rose 5.6%, and BNB climbed 4.8%.Solana led the recovery among majors, surging 10.8% to $86.42. Ether rose 7.5% to reclaim $1,994, putting it back within touching distance of $2,000 for the first time since Thursday. Cardano added 6.7%, dogecoin gained 6.5%, XRP rose 5.6%, and BNB climbed 4.8%.
The weekly picture is messier, however. Bitcoin is still down 1.6% over seven days, XRP has lost 2%, and dogecoin is off 2.5%. Solana and ether are the only majors that have clawed back into the green on the week, up 1.7% and 1.1% respectively.
The weekend volatility has been enormous but net movement has been small, which captures the broader story of a market whipsawing on global headlines without actually going anywhere.
The bounce looks convincing on a 24-hour chart but fragile in context. Saturday's sell-off happened on thin weekend liquidity. Sunday's rally happened on the same thin liquidity, just in the opposite direction.
The real test arrives in hours when equity futures, oil, and bond markets reopen and institutional capital has its first chance to react to Saturday's events.
The Polymarket's ceasefire contract gives a 78% chance of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by April 30 and 61% by March 31, as reported earlier Sunday.
If that pricing holds once traditional markets digest the weekend, the bounce has legs. However, if oil spikes and equities gap lower on the open, crypto's Sunday optimism could get faded the same way Wednesday's push to $70,000 was.
#GoldSilverOilSurge
#IranConfirmsKhameneiIsDead
#USIsraelStrikeIran
#AnthropicUSGovClash
#BlockAILayoffs

The company holds about 8,285 bitcoin in Coinbase Prime custody, a stake now worth roughly $545 million after a $235 million decline in value over the past three months.
SpaceX has held bitcoin for years without ever having to explain why to the public market investors. That's about to change.
Bloomberg reported late Friday that Elon Musk's rocket and satellite company is targeting a confidential IPO filing with the SEC as soon as March, keeping it on track for a June listing that would be the largest in history. The company is expected to seek a valuation above $1.75 trillion and raise as much as $50 billion, eclipsing Saudi Aramco's 2019 record of $29 billion.
Buried inside that filing will be 8,285 bitcoin.
Arkham Intelligence data shows SpaceX's identified wallets held about $544.8 million in BTC as of Saturday morning, spread across 43 addresses in Coinbase Prime custody.
The balance has remained roughly stable around 8,300 BTC since at least early 2026, but the dollar value has moved sharply in the wrong direction. In December, when CoinDesk reported on the holdings ahead of the planned listing, the same stack was worth roughly $780 million at bitcoin's then price near $92,500.
By early February, when the SpaceX-xAI merger brought the position back into focus, it had dropped to around $650 million with bitcoin near $78,000.
Now it sits around $545 million. That's a $235 million decline in value over three months without SpaceX touching a single coin.
That means SpaceX's S-1 will show bitcoin-related paper losses for any period where BTC declined, and future quarterly earnings will carry that volatility regardless of whether the company buys or sells.
Tesla offers the closest precedent, and it isn't reassuring.
Musk's automaker has booked hundreds of millions in paper losses during past drawdowns despite never changing its position, creating recurring headline risk that overshadowed the underlying business. SpaceX could soon face the same dynamic, except its first disclosure arrives during one of bitcoin's sharpest corrections in years rather than during a rally.
However, it's worth noting that Tesla reported total revenue of $94.8 billion and gross profit of $17 billion in 2025. So having millions of bitcoin paper losses in its balance sheet may not move the needle much for Elon Musk's companies.
SpaceX's BTC portfolio peaked near $2 billion in late 2021, crashed through 2022, and has spent the past two years fluctuating between $400 million and $800 million.
As such, SpaceX has shown no inclination to trade its position. Unlike Tesla, which sold and repurchased bitcoin, the Arkham data suggests SpaceX has simply held through every cycle.
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Historically, bitcoin bear markets have lasted 12-13 months, suggesting a potential downturn until late 2026 if priced in USD.
Bitcoin’s path to a market bottom could come as soon as next month, if the gold-denominated bitcoin price is any indication, according to Rony Szuster, Head of Research at the largest Brazilian crypto exchange, Mercado Bitcoin.
In dollar terms, the most recent peak occurred in October 2025 at about $126,000. If the current cycle follows past patterns, the downturn could extend into late 2026, Szuster wrote in a report shared with CoinDesk.
But when priced in gold, the timeline shifts. Bitcoin reached its high against gold in January 2025. Applying the same 12- to 13-month pattern would place a potential bottom around February 2026, with a recovery possibly beginning in March.
Since the start of Donald Trump’s new mandate, markets have faced aggressive trade tariffs, domestic institutional disputes in the U.S., and rising tensions with China and Iran. Rising tensions with the latter have since resulted in ongoing military conflict.
The divergence reflects broader macro forces.
Exchange-traded funds have also added pressure. Since November, about $7.8 billion has flowed out of spot bitcoin ETFs, roughly 12% of the $61.6 billion total.
Global uncertainty, measured via the World Uncertainty Index, has exploded as a result. Gold benefited from that shift, rising more than 80% over the past year to $5,280. As capital rotated into bullion, bitcoin weakened against it sooner than it did against the dollar, Mercado Bitcoin’s analyst wrote.
However, this fear-driven sell-off only paints part of the picture.
While reactive capital is fleeing bitcoin, large-scale investors or "whales" are treating the downturn as an accumulation zone, the report adds, pointing to Abu Dhabi’s major investment firms Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments adding in spot bitcoin ETF exposure in mid-February.
Against this backdrop, Szuster calls for investors to build their positions intelligently and leverage a dollar-cost averaging strategy to take advantage of current market fear and avoid timing issues.
Historically, buying during periods of fear has been more effective than buying during euphoria,” he wrote. “Does this mean it's already the bottom? No. But it means that, statistically, we are in the zone where the best average prices are usually built.”
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The OCC's proposal's stablecoin yield procedures are the most ambiguous in that rulemaking plan.
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency published its proposed rulemaking to regulate stablecoins under the GENIUS Act, sparking questions about whether it was banning yield payouts from crypto companies.
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The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), a federal banking regulator, published a notice of proposed rulemaking pursuant to the GENIUS Act explaining how it might oversee stablecoins. Most of it appears straightforward, but the portion addressing yield seems ambiguous, and possibly even controversial.
The OCC published its first take at rulemaking under the GENIUS Act, the first step toward turning the 2025 law into actual, applicable rules for crypto companies to abide by. Controversially, it seems to propose setting up new restrictions around how stablecoin issuers and their partners can offer yield payments to end users.
Just to get this out of the way: Most of this 376-page proposal seems fairly straightforward. Provisions address custody controls, capital requirements and the other prosaic regulatory details that one would expect from a proposal seeking to govern the U.S. stablecoin sector. This newsletter may touch on those details in a future edition.
The most controversial part appears to be the sections addressing stablecoin yield and how issuers and affiliates can handle those. According to multiple people tracking this process, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss an active rulemaking proposal candidly, these sections also seem to be ambiguous. One individual said the OCC seemed to be claiming the authority to ban third parties from offering yield from holding stablecoins, exceeding its authority in the process. But two others said the proposal fit the language of the law defined in GENIUS, and that they had no concerns about yield being banned unilaterally.
What the provisions might do is place restrictions on how stablecoin issuers' partner companies can pay out interest on stablecoin deposits, the yield we've been referring to here.
"[The] proposed [section] provides that permitted payment stablecoin issuers must not pay the holder of any payment stablecoin any form of interest or yield (whether in cash, tokens, or other consideration) solely in connection with holding, use, or retention of such payment stablecoin," the proposal said. "The OCC understands that issuers could attempt to make prohibited payments of interest or yield to payment stablecoins holders through arrangements with third parties."
The section went on to list some of these third-party relationships but said "it would not be possible to identify in detail all, or even most, of the potential arrangements."
, the proposal said that the OCC would presume these payments are solely for yield purposes if there was a contract to that effect and third parties would be defined as entities paying yield as a service.
Companies would be able to push back and "rebut the presumption" if they have evidence their contractual relationship does not meet those terms, the proposal said.
Companies like Coinbase and Circle might have to tweak the terms of their relationship to abide by the terms of the proposal, as might companies like PayPal and Paxos, the issuer of PayPal's PYUSD stablecoin, two people said about this section.
Matthew Sigal, head of digital assets research at VanEck, also shared this view, saying on X (formerly Twitter) that companies like Coinbase would have to make their agreements look more like loyalty programs than interest payments.
One confusing part about the proposal, one individual said, is in the definition of an "affiliate." A company could be an issuer or an affiliate, where affiliates may not be able to issue yield solely for holding deposits, but the proposal appears to create a third category based on ownership stakes. If an issuer has a 25% or greater stake in a third-party, they would not be able to offer payments on yield, which might open the door for third-parties that don't have such ownership stake concerns.
Similarly, the wording addressing "white-label relationships" may bar yield payments, but it would depend on the terms of the contract between the issuer and the company associated with the stablecoin, the person said. This is the sort of setup PayPal and Paxos have
To further add to the confusion, stablecoin yield is also one of the issues holding up the advancement of the market structure legislation that the crypto industry continues to hope for. Two people said the OCC proposal might mean that Congress does not need to address yield in the market structure bill at all, but others said there is zero chance Congress will skip over this portion of the bill.
Yield isn't the only issue holding up the bill — ethics provisions concerning President Donald Trump and his family's crypto activities, as well as anti-money laundering and know-your-customer rules, still need to be worked out — but if the market structure bill becomes law, it will again reshape how stablecoins can operate in the U.S.
As a result, it is likely that this part of the OCC proposal will not be implemented as-is.
If the market structure bill does become law before the OCC can finalize its rules, the regulator will have to issue an interim proposal to remain compliant with the new law. Otherwise, there will be a whole separate rulemaking process later down the line.
On the market structure bill itself, individuals said that there is some updated draft language circulating among lawmakers but there is no deal between the banking industry and the crypto industry yet.
There are no government hearings or meetings scheduled as of press time addressing crypto-related issues.
If you’ve got thoughts or questions on what I should discuss next week or any other feedback you’d like to share, feel free to email me at nik@coindesk.com or find me on Bluesky @nikhileshde.bsky.social.
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GD’s market cap-to-net asset value ratio (mNAV) sits around 0.5, one of the worst among corporate bitcoin holders.
Shares of GD Culture Group (Nasdaq: GDC) jumped nearly 15% Wednesday after the company’s board approved the sale of its 7,500 bitcoin reserve, currently worth about $510 million, more than double the firm's $210 million market capitalization.
The board authorized the liquidation to fund a previously announced $100 million share repurchase program disclosed on Feb. 18, which is expected to be executed over the next six months.
The move underscores a striking valuation mismatch: GD Culture’s bitcoin holdings alone exceed the company’s entire equity value, even before accounting for its operating businesses. GD's market cap-to-net asset value ratio (mNAV) sits around 0.5, one of the worst among corporate bitcoin holders, according to The Block’s data.
Nevada-based GD Culture Group operates through subsidiaries AI Catalysis and Shanghai Xianzhui Technology Co., focusing on AI-driven digital human technology and live-streaming e-commerce.
With 7,500 BTC on its balance sheet, the company ranks among the 15 largest corporate treasuries.
In May 2025, GD Culture sold up to $300 million in shares to finance its crypto treasury strategy, which included purchases of bitcoin and the TRUMP memecoin. Later that year, the company said it would add 7,500 BTC to its long-term digital asset reserve following its acquisition of Pallas Capital.
For the nine months ended Sept. 30, GD Culture reported net income of $9.6 million, compared with a net loss of $14.1 million in 2024.
Digital asset treasuries (DATs) are beginning to show signs of stress from the sharp sell-off in bitcoin, which is affecting their share prices," Coin Bureau co-founder Nic Puckrin told The Block earlier this week.
GDC shares were trading up about 10% to $3.70 at publication time.
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Block reported impressive financial results and guidance, illustrating building financial momentum, according to analysts at William Blair.
CEO Jack Dorsey also said Block is cutting nearly 4,000 jobs as AI and “intelligence tools” are fundamentally changing how the company operates.
Block Inc., the digital payments company behind Square and Cash App, reported "impressive" fourth-quarter earnings and forward guidance, though most of the headlines have focused on the company's pivot towards artificial intelligence tools.
Block
BXYZ0%
on Thursday afternoon reported operating income of $485 million, while adjusted operating income grew to $588 million. Net income attributable to common stockholders was $116 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $930 million. The firm raised its gross profit guidance to $12.2 billion for 2026, which would be up 18% year over yea
Block also bought an additional 103 bitcoin and now holds 8,883 BTC, worth around $577 million at current prices, giving it the fourteenth-largest corporate bitcoin treasury.
At least as important," William Blair equity analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury wrote in a note to clients, "Block announced that it is reducing headcount by more than 40% as it moves to an intelligence-centric model. The company is the first fintech we cover to reassess the fundamental nature of its workforce and how it will compete and drive ROIC."
Block is reducing its staff from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000, which CEO Jack Dorsey said is a move to become "smaller", "flatter," and AI-first. In the immediate aftermath, it was noted that Block more than tripled its headcount from 3,900 to 12,500 between December 2019 and December 2022, during the pandemic.
At least as important," William Blair equity analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury wrote in a note to clients, "Block announced that it is reducing headcount by more than 40% as it moves to an intelligence-centric model. The company is the first fintech we cover to reassess the fundamental nature of its workforce and how it will compete and drive ROIC."
Block is reducing its staff from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000, which CEO Jack Dorsey said is a move to become "smaller", "flatter," and AI-first. In the immediate aftermath, it was noted that Block more than tripled its headcount from 3,900 to 12,500 between December 2019 and December 2022, during the pandemic.
Yes, we over-hired during COVID because I incorrectly built 2 separate company structures (Square and Cash App) rather than 1, which we corrected mid 2024," Dorsey said in a post on X. "But this misses all the complexity we took on through lending, banking, and BNPL. and that we’re now targeting $2M+ gross profit per person, 4x our pre-covid efficiency, which stayed flat at ~$500k from 2019 until 2024."
Breaking down Cash App and Square
Cash App's financial services gross profit reached $865 million, well ahead of William Blair's $770 million estimate. Analysts are bullish on the structural growth of short-term consumer liquidity products and say Cash App is positioned to capitalize on shortcomings in traditional banktech, products, and value.
Notably, William Blair analysts said Square could be the business where AI has the greatest impact, given its combination of self-onboarding and robust business planning and operational technology.
We anticipate that Square will increasingly automate customer functionality, allowing merchants to build their own bespoke AI solutions," analsys wrote. "While competitors have spoken about similar capabilities, we think Square is well ahead."
Even in the "competitive" U.S. market, Square's year-to-date GPV growth grew to 7.5%, which was 50 basis points faster than the fourth quarter. Analysts said new products — especially those aimed at restaurants — helped deliver the strongest quarter for new volume in nearly five years, with this metric rising 29%. Management also noted that year-to-date payment volume is up 12%, marking a two-point acceleration from the previous period.
William Blair reiterated an "outperform" rating and $67 price target on XYZ shares.
Block's stock surged more than 22% in Thursday's after-hours session. Shares traded around $62.34 at publication, good for a 14% gain. The stock is down over 70% from COVID-era highs.
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Slovak Bitcoin developer Martin Habovštiak published a proof-of-concept storing a 66kB TIFF image file contiguously in the Bitcoin blockchain as a single transaction, without using OP_RETURN, Taproot, or OP_IF.
The demonstration directly challenges key claims from Bitcoin Knots supporters and proponents of BIP-110, the temporary soft fork proposal that would restrict arbitrary data on Bitcoin.
Nearly 9% of Bitcoin nodes are ready for BIP-110, which is implemented exclusively through Bitcoin Knots.
Martin Habovštiak, a Slovak Bitcoin developer who maintains the Rust Bitcoin library, has embedded a 66-kilobyte image file directly in the Bitcoin blockchain as a single contiguous transaction, challenging several foundational claims made by proponents of the "anti-spam" BIP-110 proposal and the Bitcoin Knots node implementation.
The transaction, which is publicly verifiable on the blockchain, can be decoded from its raw hex into a valid TIFF image file viewable by standard image software. The image depicts Knots developer Luke Dashjr, a central proponent of BIP-110 (formerly BIP-444), crying. Habovštiak announced the project on X on Thursday, linking to a detailed write-up that includes step-by-step instructions for independent verification using any Bitcoin full node.
The demonstration is notable for what it did not use: the transaction contains no OP_RETURN opcodes, does not rely on Taproot (using SegWit v0 instead), and contains no OP_IF instructions. These are among the primary vectors that BIP-110 targets for restriction, and Habovštiak argues their absence proves that the proposal's restrictions can be circumvented without relying on any of them.
The proof-of-concept arrives amid an ongoing and at times bitter dispute between Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Knots camps over what types of data should be permitted on the Bitcoin network. BIP-110, originally introduced as BIP-444 in October 2025, proposes a temporary one-year soft fork that would cap OP_RETURN outputs at 83 bytes, limit individual data pushes to 256 bytes, and restrict other scripting features that enable large data storage. It was introduced after Bitcoin Core's v30 release effectively uncapped OP_RETURN data limits earlier that year.
Luke Dashjr, the Bitcoin Core developer who maintains Bitcoin Knots and serves as CTO of Ocean mining pool, has been a vocal proponent of limiting arbitrary data on Bitcoin, calling inscriptions "spam" since 2023. BIP-110 proponents have argued that contiguous data storage creates legal risks for node operators and diverts Bitcoin from its core purpose as money.
In his own posts on X, Dashjr contested the characterization of Habovštiak's transaction as "contiguous," writing in one such post, "His spam isn't and doesn't contain contiguous images."
About 8.8% of the network is made up of nodes with BIP-110 support, according to data published by The Bitcoin Portal. The proposal is implemented exclusively through Bitcoin Knots, which has seen its node count grow roughly tenfold since the start of 2025.
Habovštiak, a prolific open-source contributor, also produced a BIP-110-compliant version of the image transaction, tested against Bitcoin Knots' own regtest environment. The compliant version was reportedly larger than the original, which he argued demonstrates that BIP-110's restrictions would actually increase the total amount of data stored on the blockchain rather than reduce it.
Habovštiak said the project was a one-time effort and that he would not be publishing his code, explicitly to avoid enabling a new wave of NFT-like activity on Bitcoin. He described himself as an opponent of blockchain spam who was motivated by what he considered "untruths" from the Knots camp.
There's something I hate much more than spam: Untruths," Habovštiak wrote. "I tried arguing about this in the past, showed a contiguous image encoded to fit into witness, and yet, the Knots supporters are still saying the same stuff over and over." The Block could not reach Habovštiak or Dashjr for comment.
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The real competitive advantage in stablecoins, the moat that holds competitors at bay, now lies in the distribution held by incumbents, according to the person behind Meta's abandoned Diem token.
You can't have missed the stablecoin vibe. While bitcoin
BTC
$66,605.90
and the rest of the crypto market are in the doldrums after falling from record highs in October, everyone else is talking about issuing tokens whose value is fixed, pegged to a real-world asset. Mostly the doll
Not only the dollar, of course. This week alone, AllUnity, a German joint venture between DWS, Galaxy, and Flow Trader, issued a Swiss franc-based token (CHFAU) and SBI Holdings and Startale Group introduced a yen version (JPYSC). Earlier this month, Agant said it's working on a pound stablecoin, and Hong Kong said it plans to start handing out stablecoin licenses in March.
Then there's the revelation that Mark Zuckerberg-led Meta (META) is looking to add stablecoin-based payment capabilities early in the second half of the year. The company famously tried and failed to introduce the Libra stablecoin, renamed Diem in 2019, in the face of stiff opposition from lawmakers and regulators.
But Meta’s proposed return to stablecoin-based payments later this year bears little comparison with Libra/Diem, according to the co-creator of Libra, Christian Catalini, who is now a professor at MIT and the founder of the MIT Cryptoeconomics Lab.
What's different now, says Catalini, is that stablecoins are fading into the background, offered by multiple providers and becoming part of the payments infrastructure. The once-hyped businesses of stablecoin issuance and orchestration, or the coordination of payments across different blockchains and conversion between token and fiat for payment purposes, are becoming a commodity, he said.
Not just Meta, but also Google, Apple, all of them will be using multiple providers, as is the case when they do disbursements of payments,” Catalini said in an interview with CoinDesk. “So I would expect the market to be commodified in the future, rather than a branded stablecoin. In a sense, it's a sign that the market has matured.”
This sentiment was also voiced by Meta’s VP of communications, Andy Stone, who said the move to bring stablecoin payments back was simply “about enabling people and businesses to make payments on our platforms using their preferred method.”
The real competitive advantage in stablecoins, the moat that holds competitors at bay, now lies in distribution, said Catalini. Whoever owns the direct relationship with the end user will capture the most value. And Meta has billions of users across Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram, almost 3.6 billion according to its most recent earnings report.
The focus on contacts and reach is a marked change from accruing value by delivering stablecoins to a wallet, or going from fiat to crypto and then back to fiat — the so-called stablecoin sandwich required for regular payment transactions.
It's also good news for incumbents such as the card networks, fintechs, neobanks and some wallet firms who have an advantage because they actually own the touch point with the end user, Catalini pointed out. Stablecoin payments threaten to cut the lucrative interchange fees payment networks like Visa and Mastercard claim, but the card networks have a significant advantage when it comes to distribution.
“If [the card networks] can commoditize the rails and commoditize the assets, they will be able to defend their business,” Catalini said. “The commoditization of the assets is inevitable — there's going to be many stablecoins and many banks will want their own — so the rails are where things will get interesting.”
Also in the fray is Stripe, Meta's long-time payment partner whose CEO Patrick Collison joined Meta's board of directors a year ago and is a potential vendor that Meta might enlist for its stablecoin project.
The payments giant’s aggressive crypto power plays are not to be underestimated: Stripe bought stablecoin specialist Bridge for $1.1 billion last year, and has built its own blockchain called Tempo.
Still, Catalini questioned whether other firms will flock to a competitor’s blockchain, even if it’s purportedly a public network.
“If you are another big payment service provider, would you want to build on Stripe's Tempo? Probably not,” Catalini said. “It goes back to the key challenge of making these networks truly open and neutral, which is the entire point of crypto. But of course, it's a hard one to actually deliver on from a practical perspective, unless you're building on something already established like Ethereum, Bitcoin, or Solana.”
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The government relies on this crypto infrastructure for international trade, while ordinary Iranians use it as a financial lifeline during protests and economic crises.
Fresh U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have drawn new attention to a financial network Tehran has built in parallel to its battered banking system: bitcoin mining and a fast-growing stablecoin economy.
Iran legalized crypto mining in 2019, allowing licensed operators to use subsidized electricity in exchange for selling mined BTC to the central bank. Bitcoin has served as a tool for paying for imports and settling trade outside the dollar system, even if indirectly.
Estimates in recent years have put Iran’s share of global bitcoin mining power between 2% and 5%, though much of the activity operates out of public view.
Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis found that Iran’s crypto ecosystem reached $7.78 billion in 2025, growing faster than the year before. That figure is as large as the GDP of some smaller countries such as the Maldives, or Liechtenstein.
Activity often spiked around military clashes and domestic unrest, including last year’s 12-day conflict with Israel, according to Chainalysis.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the primary branch of the country’s military, has since deepened its role in the space. Chainalysis estimates IRGC-linked addresses accounted for more than 50% of total Iranian crypto inflows in the fourth quarter of 2025, with over $3 billion in value received last year.
Those figures reflect only wallets publicly tied to sanctions listings, suggesting the true footprint may be larger.
Separate analysis by Elliptic found Iran’s central bank accumulated at least $507 million in USDT in 2025, likely to steady the rial and finance trade. That effort has mostly failed, with data showing that the rial has lost more than 96% of its value against the USD.
At the same time, ordinary Iranians have turned to bitcoin. During recent protests and an internet blackout, withdrawals from local exchanges to personal wallets rose sharply.
If conflict disrupts power grids, mining output could dip in the short term. The Iranian state is believed to be mining BTC at around $1,300 per coin, which it then sells at current market prices. It’s unclear whether the state has maintained any bitcoin reserves, as there is no treasury dashboard and no official disclosure of holdings.
In practice, mining turns cheap domestic energy into an asset that can move across borders. A licensed miner mints new bitcoin and then sends them to the central bank of Iran. The bank can then transfer it to an overseas counterparty to pay for machinery, fuel or consumer goods without routing funds through U.S.-controlled banks.
While the transactions settle on a public blockchain, the counterparties can remain opaque.
The same pattern appears in stablecoins. USDT, which is pegged to the dollar, has become a standard settlement tool in sanctioned economies because it offers price stability and faster transfers than bitcoin.
However, it's not always easy to hide such transactions. Crypto exchange Binance recently found itself embroiled in accusations that it fired investigators who raised concerns about funds moving through the exchange to sanctioned, Iran-linked entities. This led to nine U.S. Senate Democrats asking the Treasury and DOJ to probe Binance's illicit finance controls.
Chainalysis data shows that Iranian crypto activity correlates with political flashpoints, including missile exchanges and internal protests. During periods of unrest, exchange outflows rise as users pull funds into private wallets.
For the IRGC, crypto offers another channel to move value across its network of affiliates and commercial fronts. Chainalysis reported that inflows to IRGC-linked addresses totaled $2 billion in 2024 and exceeded $3 billion in 2025.
The renewed military campaign, which has seen the IRGC retaliate against U.S. bases in various countries in the Middle East, adds fresh risk to this system. Large mining operations require steady power. Iran has imposed seasonal bans in the past to ease strain on the grid.
A sustained conflict that damages infrastructure could reduce the hash rate or mining capacity tied to the country, though the global bitcoin network would likely adjust over time as miners elsewhere pick up the slack.
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Bitcoin's future hinges less on technological factors and more on how AI affects growth, employment, real interest rates, and central bank liquidity, NYDIG Research argues.
Bitcoin’s future in an artificial intelligence-driven world may depend less on code and more on central banks.
In a new note, Greg Cipolaro, global head of research at financial services and infrastructure firm NYDIG, argued that artificial intelligence will affect bitcoin mainly through macroeconomic channels and its impact on the labor market.
The key variables are growth, employment, real interest rates and liquidity. Bitcoin, he writes, sits downstream of those forces.
If automation cuts jobs and wages, consumer demand could weaken and, in a severe case, falling incomes would strain debt payments and pressure asset prices.
Those fears appear to be well-grounded. Just this week, Jack Dorsey’s fintech firm Block unveiled its shrinking back toward its pre-pandemic size, cutting staff by about 40%. Dorsey cited AI-enabled efficiency for the job cuts, something that was theorized in Citrini's research on the AI-doom that spooked the market this week.
In such a scenario, policymakers might respond with lower rates or fiscal spending to stabilize the economy. That wave of liquidity could support bitcoin, which has often tracked shifts in global money supply.
A different outcome would look less friendly for the cryptocurrency. If AI boosts productivity and economic growth without major job losses, real yields could rise, and central banks might keep policy tight.
Higher real rates have historically weighed on bitcoin by raising the opportunity cost of holding it and making risk assets less attractive.
Anxiety around AI echoes past moments of upheaval in Human society.
The steam engine displaced manual labor in factories and on farms. Electrification then rewired entire industries. Later, computers and the internet automated clerical work and reshaped retail, media and finance.
Each wave triggered fears of permanent job loss. In the early 1900s, factory mechanization sparked labor unrest as machines replaced skilled craftsmen. In the 1980s and 1990s, personal computers cut typist pools and back-office staff. More recently, e-commerce helped hollow out brick-and-mortar retail roles.
Yet aggregate demand did not collapse. Productivity rose. New industries absorbed displaced workers, even if the transition proved uneven and painful. Nowadays, we have industries that were unthinkable before the dawn of the internet. Think cloud computing.
Cipolaro argued AI may follow a similar pattern. As a general-purpose technology, it requires firms to redesign workflows and invest in complementary tools. Over time, that process tends to expand productive capacity rather than shrink it.
The implication is not that disruption will be painless, but that the equilibrium response to new technology has historically been integration, not obsolescence,” Cipolaro wrote. “Society's response to AI will likely follow the same pattern.”
For bitcoin, that distinction matters. If AI ultimately lifts long-term growth, the structural backdrop could differ from the short-term shocks that often drive liquidity injections.
Meanwhile, adoption may also rise thanks to agentic payments, which would essentially see software pay other pieces of software without human involvement. One of Bitcoin’s earliest visions centered on machine-to-machine payments, and AI may be the necessary tool to make them a reality.
Still, incentives aren’t currently there for a widespread rollout. Credit cards bundle rewards and short-term credit, features that stablecoins do not yet match, Cipolaro noted.
Ultimately, while the rise of AI brings new challenges, what matters is the human response to the disruption it brings. If AI triggers a deflationary shock and forces the money printer to turn back on, or if it fuels a productivity boom that raises real yields, bitcoin will reflect that.
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SEC Chair Paul Atkins criticized the agency under former Chair Gary Gensler and said the SEC hadn’t tried to adapt to innovations.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is working to regain momentum on crypto oversight after what Chairman Paul Atkins described as a "big missed opportunity" under the prior administration.
On Friday, Atkins criticized the agency under former Chair Gary Gensler and said the SEC hadn't tried to adapt to innovations during a fireside chat at the University of Texas.
This has been a big missed opportunity for the United States that we're quickly … trying to make up time for," Atkins said.
Under Gensler, the SEC took a more cautious — and enforcement-heavy — stance toward crypto, asserting that many digital assets were securities and bringing numerous cases against firms, largely over registration violations.
Since the start of the Trump administration, however, the SEC has adopted a more industry-friendly posture. The agency established a crypto task force, dropped numerous enforcement cases against big industry players, and embarked on "Project Crypto" to modernize its rules.
While Atkins noted that individual cryptocurrencies may rise and fall, he expressed particular enthusiasm for the broader potential of distributed ledger technology, especially in payment clearing and settlement systems.
Earlier this week, the SEC granted WisdomTree exemptive relief for the 24/7 trading and instant settlement for its WisdomTree Treasury Money Market Digital Fund — marking a first in the U.S.
We've approved tokenized money market mutual funds, and to come will be tokenized bank deposits," Atkins said.
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The proposal acknowledges it would require a coordinated network upgrade and could risk a chain split if parts of the ecosystem refuse to adopt the change.
The roughly 80,000 BTC at issue are not part of the assets currently being distributed to Mt. Gox creditors and remain outside the trustee’s control.
Mark Karpelès, the former CEO of defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox, has published a proposal calling for a Bitcoin hard fork that would allow roughly 79,956 BTC, worth more than $5.2 billion at current prices, to be recovered from a long-dormant address linked to the exchange’s 2011 hack.
The proposal targets the address 1Feex...sb6uF, which received nearly 80,000 BTC following a documented compromise of Mt. Gox’s systems in June 2011. The coins have not moved in more than 15 years, suggesting the attacker may have lost the private keys or has chosen not to move or return the funds.
Under current Bitcoin rules, those funds can only be spent with the corresponding private key.
The proposal says it would "add a consensus rule that allows spending the unspent outputs locked to the theft address using a signature from the Mt. Gox recovery address, so that the funds can be returned to Mt. Gox creditors through the existing court-supervised rehabilitation process."
The draft is framed as a starting point for debate, which Karpelès describes as "an attempt to start a discussion about whether the Bitcoin community considers this specific, exceptional case worth addressing." He also specifies that the rule change would apply only to that single address and would activate at a future block height if adopted by the network
In outlining the rationale, Karpelès describes the theft as "unambiguous," notes the coins have remained inactive for 15 years, and points out that a court-supervised rehabilitation process is already in place to distribute any recovered funds to verified creditors.
He also frames the change as technically limited and narrow, writing that it is a “one-time, hardcoded exception for a specific case with unique characteristics,” not a general mechanism for reversing transactions or recovering stolen funds.
Among them is the concern that altering ownership rules for a specific address would set a precedent that could undermine Bitcoin’s immutability. "If it can be done once, the argument goes, it can be done again," the draft states. It also raises the question of who decides which cases merit protocol intervention, noting that other major hacks could seek similar treatment.
Still, the proposal acknowledges obvious downsides.
The coins referenced in the proposal are not part of the assets currently being distributed to creditors.
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The document further concedes that coordinating a hard fork would carry risks, including the possibility of a chain split if parts of the network refuse to upgrad
Following Mt. Gox’s 2014 collapse, roughly 200,000 BTC were later recovered and placed under the control of court-appointed trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi as part of Japan’s civil rehabilitation process. Those holdings have formed the basis of creditor repayments that began in mid-2024.
As previously reported, the trustee pushed the repayment deadline to October 2026, marking the third extension. According to Arkham Intelligence data, the estate still holds 34,689 BTC across its wallets, and past movements, including a 10,608 BTC transfer in November, have typically preceded distributions.
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A full closure of the strait is unlikely or impractical, some experts argue.
As tensions flare once again between Iran, Israel, and the U.S., social media, especially on crypto social media X (or Crypto Twitter), fears that Tehran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil chokepoint. Such a move, many worry, could send oil prices and global inflation soaring and roil financial markets, including bitcoin.
However, those concerns may be exaggerated, according to some observers.
Early Saturday, Israel and the U.S. launched airstrikes on Iran, aiming to dismantle the nation's nuclear facilities and missile capabilities after failed negotiations. Iran retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at Israel and the U.S. bases in the region, escalating fears of a full-blown military conflict.
This sparked jitters in the crypto market, the only venue open for investors to express fear and risk, while traditional markets stay closed over the weekend.
Bitcoin
BTC
$64,826.20
, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, dropped to $63,000 from around $65,600 before rebounding to $65,000. Oil-linked futures on Hyperliquid surged more than
The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint (21 miles wide at its narrowest point) between Iran to the north and Oman to the south, and facilitated about 20 million barrels of oil shipments each day in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Naturally, amid simmering tensions, crypto accounts on X are worried that Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz, choking off oil supplies.
If a direct conflict between the United States and Iran has begun, this isn't just geopolitics. It's a global economic event. If the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, oil could spike toward $120–$150," an X handle called @Crypto_Diet said.
This could lead to an inflation shock, market sell-offs, a dollar surge, and depreciation in emerging-market currencies, the post added.
Several more accounts have posted similar views, with some savvy geopolitical experts sharing these concerns.
Oil prices had already climbed to six-month highs ahead of the strikes. Iran is a founding OPEC member and the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil passes, is now directly implicated," Geopolitical Strategist Velina Tchakarova said.
On top of that, some news outlets are already reporting that several oil majors, including trading houses, have suspended oil and fuel shipments through the strait.
Some observers, however, argued that an outright closure of the strait is not in Iran's best interests and may be geographically impossible.
According to Daniel Lacalle, a PhD economist, fund manager, and chief economist at Tressis, Iran currently produces 3.3 million barrels per day of oil, but exports just half of that, which almost entirely goes to its ally China.
It would shoot itself in the foot," Lacalle said, downplaying fears of an eventual Iranian shutdown of the strait.
He added that OPEC members could quickly offset any potential disruption to oil supplies from Iran, while stressing that the United States, by itself, is the world's largest oil producer.
In other words, any spike in oil prices could be measured and temporary.
The other aspect to consider is Geography. While the strait is split roughly in the middle between Iran and Oman, the shipping lanes are predominantly in Omani waters. It's because water on the Iranian side is said to be shallower, while on the Omani side, it is deeper and better suited for the movement of large oil tankers.
So, technically, ships could pass through Oman's yard, which means Iran's closure of its territory may not have a big impact on supplies.
Most waterways are in Oman, not Iran," Energy Market Expert Dr. Anas Alhajji said on
Hormuz strait has never been blocked despite all wars - It cannot be blocked. Too wide. Well protected," he added.
All things considered, the odds of Iran shutting the strait and choking off oil supplies are low. That said, an all-out war can still trigger widespread risk aversion, potentially driving bitcoin below the widely watched $60,000 support level
Meanwhile, bitcoin's price chart also signals a potential for deepening of the bear market ahead amid the Middle East crisis.
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With BTC down nearly 50% from its peak, analysts are sparring over whether the slump marks early repricing or signals more pain to come.
With a few hours still to go, Bitcoin
BTC
$64,525.16
is on track to post its worst losing streak since 2018, with February about to mark a fifth consecutive monthly decli
The run of losses would be the longest since that 2018–2019 bear market and follows what has already been bitcoin’s worst first 50-day start to a year on record, leaving BTC down more than 25% year to date and on course for its first-ever back-to-back January and February declines.
More? The bitcoin-to-gold ratio fell to 12.288 ounces in February, marking a 70% drawdown over the last 14 months.
Bitcoin is also about to close out its worst month since June 2022, as the collapse of Terra-Luna that year sent the price plunging by about one-third. With bitcoin currently at about $64,000, the decline this February stands at nearly 20%.
But some analysts argue that comparing the current stretch to 2018 oversimplifies what’s unfolding.
What we’re seeing isn’t just weakness. It’s repricing inside a structural regime shift,” Mati Greenspan, senior eToro market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, told CoinDesk.
He believes that while tariffs, ETF flows and macro fears may explain the timing of the selloff, they don’t explain the deeper move, which he sees as a broader recalibration in how markets value risk assets in an era of elevated uncertainty.
Bitcoin is also approaching a fifth straight weekly decline, a streak last seen between March and May 2022.
Geopolitical tensions have strengthened the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices, tightening financial conditions and weighing on risk assets.
Yet, this downturn stands out for another reason: bitcoin’s uneven relationship with equities. While U.S. stocks have remained relatively resilient, BTC has sharply underperformed, marking an unusual period of instability in its traditional risk-asset correlation.
Bitcoin doesn’t have a narrative right now, and it’s getting squeezed from both sides,” Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, said in an email to CoinDesk.
Randin pointed to mounting macro pressure, including $3.8 billion in ETF outflows over the past five weeks, escalating tariff tensions and a Federal Reserve that has yet to signal imminent rate cuts.
While gold has attracted safe-haven flows and equities have ridden AI momentum, bitcoin has lagged. “Gold is up roughly 48% since September while bitcoin has fallen about 41% over the same period,” Randin said, explaining that the divergence shows investors are still treating BTC as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than digital gold.
The correlation picture has been volatile. “The 20-day BTC-Nasdaq correlation swung from -0.68 to +0.72 between early and mid-February. That’s not decorrelation, that’s instability,” Randin said. “When the risk-on trade is working, and one asset gets left behind, that’s usually weakness, not strength.”
The narrative “hasn’t changed since 2009. It is a global, neutral alternative to debt-based fiat systems," according to Greenspan.
When correlations break during regime shifts, it’s usually not random. It’s early repricing,” Greenspan said. “If equities are still being treated as cyclical growth exposure while bitcoin starts trading more like a sovereign hedge, that divergence is structurally bullish.”
Despite the scale of the drawdown, Randin cautioned against assuming the correction is over.
Bitcoin’s now declined 52% from the October highs,” he said. “That sounds like a lot, but when you look at prior bear markets where we’ve seen drawdowns of 80% or more, we could realistically be only halfway through this correction.”
He added that while the weekly relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to its lowest reading in bitcoin’s history and accumulator addresses have absorbed roughly 372,000 BTC since late December, signals often associated with cycle bottoms, similar conditions in past downturns were followed by another 30% to 40% drop before a definitive low formed.
Greenspan, however, said sentiment may already reflect much of the pessimism. “When sentiment gets this uniformly negative while long-term fundamentals remain intact, reversals tend to be sharp,” he said.
Until bitcoin can reclaim the $68,000–$72,000 zone, Randin said, “I’d expect this streak to grind on rather than break cleanly.” He identified $60,000 as a key near-term support level, with the 200-week moving average near $58,500 just below it.
The losing streak narrative focuses on five months,” Greenspan added. “The structural story spans decades.”
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